[Sixstrings]

(edit, delete)

I gotta stop these rants. US loses saudi arabia, if it stays that way and the rift grows then long term that's a big deal and not strategically smart. Point made, I'll leave it at that.

[SeaGypsy]

The US is still the Kingmaker.

Obama's big lesson is that Democracy is not a one trick pony. The pattern has become pretty stable in this part of the world: you knock over the dictator strongman leaders of whatever ilk- you get- mahem-. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. The US calls the shots 6, through it's money. The military toy application is a part, but a sideshow to the main game- open trade with the USA. Obama is obviously an idealist with some big dreams- nothing wrong with that. But a man who does the wrong thing, repeatedly, expecting a different result- in the end can only be seen as a fool. Better to cop a mouthful and look for an exit strategy- which it seem right now he at last appears to be doing. A huge over-reaching attempt and rebound. Embarrassing. But not the end of the world.

For the light at the end of the tunnel (before the next tunnel- ) look to Egypt. I know it's hard for those who thought/ think nomatter what a Democratically elected government does- it should get to serve it's full term- but at the moment Egypt is the light on the hill for secular Islam- which is really the only long term way out of this mess. Egypt is the only country in the Middle East outside of Israel where women often appear on MSM TV with their hair out, arguing with Imam's about their moral hypocrisy. As harsh as things have become- there are not millions of Egyptians piling up in refugee camps. New elections are planned- a wiser public will make a wiser choice- let's hope.

The Saudi vs Iran for top regional and religious dog thing stinks. As much as it would hurt- if Obama had the balls- he would put sanctions on every state enforcing either- Sunni or Shia Sharia Law. Instead he is letting Lebanon & Turkey slide over away from decades of secular progress. Brunei is to implement Sharia in February next year.

Obama has his eyes off the ball. Putin has his right on it.

[AgentR11]

Alternate view to consider....

The current realignment underway in the ME is intentional. Obama is competent and acting on-plan; his plan. Its just that his plan is contrary to prior administrations in a way that disrupts the presumption on policy continuity between administrations.

My take is that Obama sees higher oil prices and a weaker dollar as fundamentally good things; he can't get anything along those lines through congress, but he can impact internal regulations and international relationships; both of which can move the ball on his policy objectives. Moreover, these kinds of changes are very difficult to unravel by the next administration; they could easily be stuck playing friends to Iran & Syria (not large oil exporters), moderating with Iraq and Israel, and having the earned enmity of the Sunni Arab states.

qed... higher oil prices in dollars, and a weaker dollar overall. Adjustment moves the pay parity between The US/India/China towards balance. And a freeby tackon.. delivering another crushing blow to the upper middle class of the US via falling standard of living.

[Keith_McClary]

Juan Cole has assorted thoughts:
http://www.juancole.com/2013/10/turning ... ation.html

[Sixstrings]

Juan Cole has assorted thoughts:
http://www.juancole.com/2013/10/turning ... ation.html

Interesting. From your article:

Is the Arab World turning back to Russia? Egyptian Delegation heads for Moscow

An Egyptian delegation heading to Moscow just after the United States cut $300 million out of its aid package to Cairo to punish the July 3 military coup there has raised speculation that Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s military junta is shopping for a new superpower patron.

Satanovskiy also told her, ” Moscow has received a chance to use the situation tactically. “Some arms contracts may be concluded. Moscow can ask for a base in Alexandria in place of the military facility at Tartus in Syria

...

As I noted a couple of days ago, Saudi Arabia itself, a firm US client virtually since the 1930s, is also straying, perhaps to Beijing.
http://www.juancole.com/2013/10/turning-egyptian-delegation.html

[Sixstrings]

Israel warns Iran is one month away from having enough uranium for a bomb:

Israel issues warning on report on Iran bomb

A new report that says Iran may need as little as a month to produce enough uranium for a nuclear bomb is further evidence for why Israel will take military action before that happens, an Israeli defense official said Friday.

"We have made it crystal clear – in all possible forums, that Israel will not stand by and watch Iran develop weaponry that will put us, the entire Middle East and eventually the world, under an Iranian umbrella of terror," Danny Danon, Israel's deputy defense minister told USA TODAY.

Iran is developing and installing new and advanced centrifuges that enable Iran to enrich even low-enriched uranium to weapons grade uranium needed for nuclear weapons within weeks, Danon said.

"This speedy enrichment capability will make timely detection and effective response to an Iranian nuclear breakout increasingly difficult," he said.

"Breakout" refers to the time needed to convert low-enriched uranium to weapons-grade uranium. On Thursday, the Institute for Science and International Security issued a report stating that Iran could reach that breakout in as little as one month based in part on Iran's own revelations about its nuclear program.

"If they use all their centrifuges ... and their stockpiles of low- and medium-enriched uranium, that would take one to 1.6 months," said David Albright, president of the institute and a former inspector for the U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2013/10/25/iran-bomb-uranium-israel/3186567/

[Plantagenet]

Israel warns Iran is one month away from having enough uranium for a bomb

It might be a good time to buy oil futures. Any Israeli attack on Iran's nuke processing sites would play havoc with the oil markets.

[radon1]

Putin knows what he's doing,

No, he doesn't. He is lost.

Saudis don't want the seat probably because that they believe that they are too powerful to occupy a junior, "non-permanent" position in the council, thus giving an impression that they are content on the developments with Syria and Iran. They are kind of saying that they are going to sort this out on their own.

[Keith_McClary]

Israel warns Iran is one month away from having enough uranium for a bomb

Netanyahu in 1992: Iran close to having nuclear bomb
1992: Israeli member of parliament Binyamin Netanyahu predicts that Iran was “3 to 5 years” from having a nuclear weapon.

1992: Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres predicts an Iranian nuclear warhead by 1999 to French TV.

1995: The New York Times quotes US and Israeli officials saying that Iran would have the bomb by 2000.

[Keith_McClary]

CONTRIBUTING OP-ED WRITER
Islamic Comrades No More
By VALI R. NASR

The coup last July in Egypt opened a new divide in the Middle East, alienating the Gulf monarchies from the Muslim Brotherhood. This is a momentous change in the region’s strategic landscape that promises to influence governments and regional alliances for years to come.
...
Still, there are things America could do to lessen the harm being done by the rift.

The key would be to stop ignoring Egypt, to help build its economy and to end its corrosive political impasse. Only America can rally an international effort to address Egypt’s vast economic needs, and it should use that leverage to persuade Egypt’s rulers to convincingly point the way to democratic rule. Equally important would be more American attention to Morocco, Tunisia and Jordan, where willing elements of the Muslim Brotherhood might be included in broad-based coalitions with secular democrats.

In the long run, establishing economic progress and political stability in all of those countries would be the best way to address Saudi fears that instability would spread to the monarchies. And that would do much to lessen the impact of Egypt’s current agonies on the whole region.

Vali R. Nasr is the dean of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

So, "in the long run" this dean of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies thinks these monarchies should continue to be propped up by USA. Is this a recipe for stability "in the long run"?

[SeaGypsy]

By VALI R. NASR

...where willing elements of the Muslim Brotherhood might be included in broad-based coalitions with secular democrats.

... to address Saudi fears that instability would spread to the monarchies.

Vali R. Nasr is the dean of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

[/quote]

Muslim Brotherhood working with secularists... righto.

Screw the Saudis. The USA should have invaded the dump instead of wasting time and money and lives in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Dean? Talking parrot.