Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

TOD: Export Land Model

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 07 Jul 2013, 14:52:16

Good to see that WT is hear discussing his important insights and theories.

At neven's forums, we were discussing the future of food, and it struck me that one might be able to set up something like an ELM for food that might be useful in seeing where the biggest crunches were going to come the fastest. Of course, in that case, you have elements like major flooding and drought (both predicted to increase dramatically under GW) that may be hard to model. But the general trends of amount of food grown, amount of food exported and amount of food consumed internally for each major producing (and consuming?) country might be worth looking in to.

Do you know of anyone trying to apply your model to food in that way? I'm not sure I have the mathematical or graphing chops to do it myself--in fact, I'm sure I don't.
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 19990
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 04:00:00

Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Sun 07 Jul 2013, 19:55:54

The USA may not be a net exporter, but it is in the top 3 grain exporters. When things get tight, it's not $20 jars of fake caviar that matter, but basics- grain being primary. Australia supplies grain equivalent to the requirement of about 70 million outside it's borders, beef to another 20 million; exports more than 4 times as much coal and iron ore as it uses- yet still manages a negative trade balance. How much of the leakage is low priority spending dependent on high disposable income? The principle of ELM should certainly apply to agricultural products, but the modeling will be even more complicated. Of course there is also an inter-relation when you have ELM (oil) hit dependent food importers. Then we have the complications of likely climate disruption into the mix.
SeaGypsy
Master Prognosticator
Master Prognosticator
 
Posts: 9284
Joined: Wed 04 Feb 2009, 04:00:00

Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby Pops » Mon 08 Jul 2013, 10:42:53

I think basic ELM is like a measure of the food dribbling out of the side of the producers mouth, if you have more than you can use, you waste it, or at least use it for less than it's optimum purpose. Like the difference in how lobster is treated in Maine and in Missouri, especially if the lobster in Maine gets a subsidy. wt has more finely honed measures but that is the basic idea

The thing about food is, modern calorie farming is super energy and labor efficient so super cheap, modern eating on the other hand isn't. Modern eating is totally dependent on oil. Processing, packaging, marketing, transporting various ingredients here and there to get to manufacture a predigested MRE suitable for our microwaving pleasure is where all the energy and costs go, the calorie producer gets only a very small portion.

So the basic ELM of food or oil is perhaps only viable up to a point on the cost scale isn't it? KSA in fact is seeing the distortions and talking about it publicly. Here from May 8th, 2013

Saudi Arabia should cut energy subsidies that are burdening public finances, the economy minister and the head of the state-run utility said, a move that would also tackle the issue of erosion of crude exports.

Rock-bottom prices for gas, power and gasoline have turned the world’s 20th biggest economy into its sixth-biggest consumer of oil, producing less than $3.70 of economic output for every kilogram of oil equivalent that it used in 2010, compared with the global average of $6.20, according to World Bank data.

“This has become an increasingly important issue as these subsidies have become increasingly distorting to our economy. This is something we are trying to address,” Economy and Planning Minister Mohammed Al-Jasser said yesterday.

“Rationalization of subsidies, particularly on fuels for non-targeted participants”, is needed to improve Saudi productivity, he told a financial conference in Riyadh.

more here,
http://www.albawaba.com/business/liftin ... ies-490266
Last edited by Pops on Mon 08 Jul 2013, 17:30:35, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: I couldn't even understand my point
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 19746
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 04:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac

Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby TheDude » Tue 09 Jul 2013, 21:16:08

Pops wrote:http://www.albawaba.com/business/lifting-oil-subsidies-490266


That article states that "Nearly 40 percent of Saudi electricity is still produced by burning oil." The newest data I could find when I looked into this subject a few years back was for 2006, at 52.3% - the previous numbers from the same source (World Bank) were at 51.9% in 1990. Don't see how the WB could be that far off the mark, and seriously doubt they've shaved that much consumption off even in 7 years, their exports would be much more robust I'd think.

My back-of-the-napkin calc suggested about 415 kb/d used for power in 2006 - a real rough estimate, converting Twh to barrels I think, did the work some time ago. Some news sources mentioned really steep levels in the AC happy summer months, >1 mb/d. You see very sharp seasonality for sure - they burn raw crude when demand peaks. A transition to NG is quite feasible of course, if you have the gas literally on tap. Forget how much associated gas has come on line of late - and of course that presents its own problems when KSA has to shut in to meet quotas.
Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
And let me tell you something: I dig your work.
User avatar
TheDude
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 4896
Joined: Thu 06 Apr 2006, 03:00:00
Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia

Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby Subjectivist » Tue 09 Jul 2013, 21:30:14

TheDude wrote:
Pops wrote:http://www.albawaba.com/business/lifting-oil-subsidies-490266


That article states that "Nearly 40 percent of Saudi electricity is still produced by burning oil." The newest data I could find when I looked into this subject a few years back was for 2006, at 52.3% - the previous numbers from the same source (World Bank) were at 51.9% in 1990. Don't see how the WB could be that far off the mark, and seriously doubt they've shaved that much consumption off even in 7 years, their exports would be much more robust I'd think.

My back-of-the-napkin calc suggested about 415 kb/d used for power in 2006 - a real rough estimate, converting Twh to barrels I think, did the work some time ago. Some news sources mentioned really steep levels in the AC happy summer months, >1 mb/d. You see very sharp seasonality for sure - they burn raw crude when demand peaks. A transition to NG is quite feasible of course, if you have the gas literally on tap. Forget how much associated gas has come on line of late - and of course that presents its own problems when KSA has to shut in to meet quotas.


When I read Mathew Simmons book about KSA I got the distinct impression that they were converting as much of their electricity production to gas as possible so that they could export more oil.
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
Subjectivist
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 4701
Joined: Sat 28 Aug 2010, 07:38:26
Location: Northwest Ohio

Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 10 Jul 2013, 00:02:16

sub - Here are the latest numbers from wiki...if you trust them:

"Electricity generation is 65% from Oil, 27% from Natural Gas and 8% from steam. Generation capacity is approximately 30 GW"

Not sure what they mean by "steam" since that's not really an energy source.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 11397
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 10 Jul 2013, 10:37:58

Much human activity is driven by mysteriously derived 'hot air', probably where that steam came from.
SeaGypsy
Master Prognosticator
Master Prognosticator
 
Posts: 9284
Joined: Wed 04 Feb 2009, 04:00:00

Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby TheDude » Wed 10 Jul 2013, 15:04:53

That's from the EIA - in 2007...link is broken of course. Latest version of the Country Analysis Brief for KSA tells us:

"Electricity generation is 65% from Oil, 27% from Natural Gas and 8% from steam. Generation capacity is approximately 30 GW"

Saudi Arabia - Analysis - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) They repeat/confirm that KSA peaks at burning 1 mb/d during the hottest days of the year.

Of course the Saudis would like to move away from burning oil - that goes without saying. But despite having enormous gas resources the logistics continue to favor using petroleum. For instance, there's a huge amount of gas underneath the Ghawar oil reservoirs, in the Khuff formation - but it's too deep/sour to bring to market cheaply enough to compete with resid etc.

Some of the Gulf countries were at work on building interties between their nations, to create a more generalized power grid, which would ease power demand for all, ala the setup in Europe or North America. Obviously the Middle East also has enormous solar power potential, too.

Sadad al-Husseini says crude burn fell last year - from 800 kb/d to 700 kb/d, owing to more available gas: Saudi ramps up gas drilling to ease demand for oil - FT.com. So steps are being taken in this direction.
Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
And let me tell you something: I dig your work.
User avatar
TheDude
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 4896
Joined: Thu 06 Apr 2006, 03:00:00
Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia

Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 12 Jul 2013, 16:58:55

Thanks all for your comments on Food ELM. Sounds like it way too complicated for my small brain to analyze, but maybe some of the wizards here would think about picking it up?
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 19990
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 04:00:00

Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 13 Jul 2013, 09:44:50

Just caught a link in another thread that may be an indication of more ELM fall out from a country we don’t normally associated with that dynamic: Canada. From: http://business.financialpost.com/2013/ ... =e2c1-75fa

There have been discussions to ship western Canadian oil to their east coast refineries that have to import from across the Atlantic. As the link shows not only are the producers looking to market their oil east but also the Alberta govt. It has the option to take royalty payments in kind instead of cash. And they’ve begun exercising that option as well as indicating financial support for infrastructure expansion to aid the movement and refining of the oil sands production to their east coast. It may not take too long: there is a current consideration to reverse the flow of a NG pipeline and use it to move the oil to the east. That would take considerably less time than building a new line.

While folks have been focused on Canadian oil moving to the west coast and escaping the US market the biggest loss to US imports of Canadian oil may happen much sooner and due to ELM instead of China. Given the US imports virtually all of Canada’s oil exports any ELM loss with exclusively affect our bottom line.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 11397
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby mtadd » Mon 15 Jul 2013, 16:42:45

ROCKMAN wrote:sub - Here are the latest numbers from wiki...if you trust them:

"Electricity generation is 65% from Oil, 27% from Natural Gas and 8% from steam. Generation capacity is approximately 30 GW"

Not sure what they mean by "steam" since that's not really an energy source.


Waste steam from other uses can be used in cogeneration plants to generate electricity. KSA probably generates alot of steam for HVAC and desalination.
mtadd
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 1
Joined: Mon 15 Jul 2013, 16:35:56

Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 15 Jul 2013, 16:50:19

mtadd - Sounds reasonable. Thanks
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 11397
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby TheDude » Thu 25 Jul 2013, 13:42:01

Poking around with the Energy Databrowser I see that KSA has switched from resid fuel to diesel for peak demand needs:

Image

Image

Note that they're importing more diesel for those peaks, affecting their cash balance. Higher ups must figure this is an affordable way to placate the populace, since diesel is a good deal more cleaner burning fuel to use. Overall they're still a net exporter of products.
Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
And let me tell you something: I dig your work.
User avatar
TheDude
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 4896
Joined: Thu 06 Apr 2006, 03:00:00
Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia

Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 25 Jul 2013, 14:28:02

Dude – Did you mean net exporter of products or hydrocarbons? Or do they export a lot of non-diesel products perhaps? I have read that they are exporting a lot of plastics and chemicals. From: http://www.arabnews.com/news/458132

“Saudi Arabia will import higher than usual volumes of diesel for August as soaring temperatures stoke demand for the power generation fuel. State oil giant Saudi Aramco will likely import about 6 to 7 million barrels of diesel in August, down from an estimated 7 to 8 million barrels in July, according to one of the sources familiar with the matter. Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia shipped in near record diesel volumes of up to 8.9 million barrels of diesel in June, trade sources have estimated earlier.

It last imported a record high diesel volume of 8.99 million barrels in July, 2011. Aramco relies heavily on imported diesel in summer when demand for electricity peaks with rising use of air-conditioning as temperatures can soar to a grilling 50 degrees Celsius.
To cut its imports, Aramco has planned three new refineries. But the first of these, which will produce 176,000 barrels per day of diesel, comes online in the fourth quarter of 2013 at the earliest, instead of the second quarter as previously expected, traders said.”

And then add the recently announced JV between China and the KSA to build a 400,000 bopd refinery on the Red Sea. It sounds like they are making serious efforts to move further down the value chain from just exporting oil.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 11397
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby TheDude » Thu 25 Jul 2013, 20:43:07

Thanks for the link, ROCK. They're a net exporter of practically everything, is what I meant; but have been shipping in more diesel like your story states. I wonder how much extra raw crude they're burning up these days during the summer peak; you'd think they'd phase that out first of all.
Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
And let me tell you something: I dig your work.
User avatar
TheDude
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 4896
Joined: Thu 06 Apr 2006, 03:00:00
Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia

Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby Subjectivist » Thu 25 Jul 2013, 22:54:56

TheDude wrote:Thanks for the link, ROCK. They're a net exporter of practically everything, is what I meant; but have been shipping in more diesel like your story states. I wonder how much extra raw crude they're burning up these days during the summer peak; you'd think they'd phase that out first of all.


I think that Germany was making Diesels that would run on residual oil during WW II, I was surprised to read that Saudi Arabia uses much more expensive Diesel fuel instead.
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
Subjectivist
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 4701
Joined: Sat 28 Aug 2010, 07:38:26
Location: Northwest Ohio

Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby M_B_S » Fri 30 Aug 2013, 08:01:33

http://www.iea.org/publications/freepub ... anyOSS.pdf

Germany has very little domestic oil and natural gas production and relies heavily on imports. It
has well diversified and flexible oil and natural gas supply infrastructure, which consists of crude,
product and gas pipelines and crude and oil product import terminals. Natural gas is imported into
Germany exclusively by cross-border pipeline. The country has no LNG infrastructure, although
some German companies have booked capacities in overseas LNG terminals.
Oil continues to be the main source of energy in Germany although it has declined markedly since
the early 1970s. It now represents approximately 32% of Germany’s total primary energy supply
(TPES).
Natural gas consumption in Germany has declined 10% since 2006. Demand was 90 bcm in 2010,
down from 100 bcm in 2005. According to government commissioned analysis, the total
consumption of natural gas in Germany is expected to continue to decline over the long term. The
share of natural gas in Germany’s TPES is currently around 22%.
***************************************************************************************

Peak Oil Import was 1995 (IEA) 2,8 mb/d

Oil + Gas bill in 2012 ~ 100 Billion € / a

Oil Import Decline : 1995 - 2012 = 1% / a
User avatar
M_B_S
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3770
Joined: Sat 20 Aug 2005, 03:00:00

Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 30 Aug 2013, 08:40:29

MBS - What percentage of your refined products are imported compared to that produced in Germany from imported oil? Lately I've been focused on efforts by oil exporting countries to transition from only exporting oil to more product export.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 11397
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby M_B_S » Tue 03 Sep 2013, 04:21:45

ROCKMAN wrote:MBS - What percentage of your refined products are imported compared to that produced in Germany from imported oil? Lately I've been focused on efforts by oil exporting countries to transition from only exporting oil to more product export.



You look here:

http://www.bafa.de/bafa/de/energie/mine ... index.html

http://www.bafa.de/bafa/en/energy/index.html

M_B_S
User avatar
M_B_S
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3770
Joined: Sat 20 Aug 2005, 03:00:00

PreviousNext

Return to Peak oil studies, reports & models

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 17 guests