[Ibon]

I have asked over a dozen educated Panamanians if they are concerned about the opening of the Northwest Passage. I just was on a flight with an American construction engineer and his wife who were returning to Panama to go back to work on their jobs with the canal expansion and I asked them as well if there was much talk amongst their colleagues about this topic.

Nobody I have asked this question to even knew this was a risk. Amazing how clueless the educated public is as well. You would think that this would be at the top of the list of risk assesment here in Panama.

2014 the canal expansion will be complete and the new mega ships will start passage. The first one through will be a huge event here. The older locks were maintained and will continue to be used.

Investors are expecting huge returns on their investment.......

[Tanada]

I have asked over a dozen educated Panamanians if they are concerned about the opening of the Northwest Passage. I just was on a flight with an American construction engineer and his wife who were returning to Panama to go back to work on their jobs with the canal expansion and I asked them as well if there was much talk amongst their colleagues about this topic.

Nobody I have asked this question to even knew this was a risk. Amazing how clueless the educated public is as well. You would think that this would be at the top of the list of risk assesment here in Panama.

2014 the canal expansion will be complete and the new mega ships will start passage. The first one through will be a huge event here. The older locks were maintained and will continue to be used.

Investors are expecting huge returns on their investment.......

Seems like it is human nature to narrowly focus on our own perceived environment and to ignore the outside influences unless we get body slammed by them. I looked at the Panama and Suez canal expansion projects back when I first joined this group or as they started up the expansions and one thing seemed pretty obvious to me. The Suez project is the last of many generations of gradual improvements while the Panama project is the first major change for the system in a hundred years. The thing is Suez is a sea level no lock canal, so dredging and widening is relatively easy compared to Panama. Unfortunately this Panama project isn't the fabled sea level no lock dream many hoped for, and extreme water conservation measures have to be taken to make it work with the natural level of rainfall available to refill to lake at the top of the system. One of the proposals I saw was to dredge a sea level pathway across the bottom of the lake, along with new sea level pathways from each side to the edge of the mountains that hold the lake. After that the lake would have to be drained and the canal shut for one to two years while the mountains blocking the three pieces of sea level canal were dug out to permit passage. Nobody was willing to suspend operations for the one or two years it would take to cut away the mountains deep enough for the sea level canal while it was shut down.

Now Russia is willing and eager to run ships five months of the year along their Northern Sea Route. That means for five months each year both the Panama and the Suez will be missing out on shipping from the Atlantic to the Pacific, the Northern route is significantly shorter than either one. What this will do to Canal fee's shouldn't take much imagination to figure out. So long as Russia keeps their escort fee's low compared to the canal transit fee's they have a guaranteed source of income.

[Tanada]

The total cargo transported on the NSR this year is 1 261 545 tons – a 53 percent increase from 2011, when 820 789 tons was shipped on the route.

25 of the vessels sailed NSR eastbound, starting from Murmansk, Arkhangelsk or Baydaratskaya Bay. 21 sailed in a westbound direction, a report from Rosatomflot reads. The report is given to BarentsObserver by the Centre for High North Logistics, an international knowledge hub on Arctic transport and logistics for businesses.

Petroleum products constitute the largest cargo group. A total of 894 079 tons of diesel fuel, gas condensate, jet fuel, LNG and other petrol products has been transported on 26 vessels in 2012. 18 of the tankers sailed from west to east, eight in the opposite direction. There have been no super tankers on the NSR this season – the largest tanker was the Norwegian “Marika”, which transported 66 552 tons of jet fuel from Korea to Finland in August.

The second largest cargo group was iron ore and coal, which was transported along the route six times.

http://www.barentsobserver.com/en/arcti ... oute-23-11

And

The content of ARCTIS and the presentation of information provided will be tailor-made for the needs of the maritime-logistics and resource exploitation industries in particular. ARCTIS will strive to provide up-to-date and high quality information on the Arctic and play a key role in informing our users about recent developments, operational conditions, technical improvements, and opportunities related to shipping and logistics in Arctic waters. In other words, ARCTIS will strive to be the preferred gateway to know-how for businesses, governments and the research community itself on Arctic shipping and logistics.

ARCTIS will pursue a dissemination role for the international research community by making research results and results of demonstrations/case studies known to key stakeholders in as user-friendly and transparent way as possible. The aim is to make scientific reports searchable and more understandable for the shipping and logistics industry so latest research results can be included in their decision-making process and business development.

This might contribute to more economically viable, doable, and environmentally friendly transport and logistics solutions for the Arctic.

http://www.chnl.no/?page=4&show=90&news ... S+Database

Shippers world wide seem to be interested and looking to the NSR for the 2013 season. Any bets on how many ships take the trip next year?

[Newfie]

Tanda,

You my find this site of interest.

NW thru the McClure strait in a sailboat.

http://belzebub2.com/home?lang=en

[sparky]

.
Another aspect is that it's a sea route not under the control of the U.S. Navy ,
one can do Murmansk to next door to China in Russian territorial waters
Should things become unpleasant between China and the U.S. , it could come in handy

[EdwinSm]

Recent commercial news on the artic passage (north of Russia):

Gas tanker Ob River attempts first winter Arctic crossing
...
"You are able to reach a highly profitable market by saving 40% of the distance, that's 40% less fuel used as well."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-20454757


and it has arrived (video report): http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20590168

[Tanada]

Thanks for the link, strange to me that she calls shipping via the NSR surprising, the USSR did it for decades and Russia has been promoting it heavily for the last five years. I guess it is true those who don't study history are constantly surprised by what people do that they didn't know about.

[sparky]

.
The fate of the Arctic regions is looking good, the Northern limits of farming are increasing
with easier bulk transport, the local economy should improve
the Siberian towns survived only because of massive government subsidies
I suppose it's the same in Canada

[radon]

.
the Siberian towns survived only because of massive government subsidies

Only partly true. Tumen/Khanty-Mansy is the third biggest region in Russia after Moscow and St.Petersburg in terms of GDP, out of 86, and runs a budget surplus. Only five or six regions in Russia run budget surpluses, and are money donors for the remaining 80-odd.

Overall, Arctics look like a place vulnerable to a potential conflict, especially the farther the ice melts. Far easier to imagine a foreign (military) ship entering waters that Russia perceive as her own, and teasing the Russian navy guards, than imagine an on-land invasion. Water boundary violations are common in the Far East, where the Japanese fishermen routinely cross into the Russian waters for fishing.

[sparky]

.
@ Radon , Interesting that you should mention some Northern warfare

NATO had some views identical to you ,
Exercice "cold response 2012"

16000 NATO troops , with logistical support from Sweden, occupied a big Northern city ( Murmansk )
keep the civilians under control and fight "insurgents"
since the exercise included anti sub warfare and anti aircraft cover,
that must have been some insurgents !

"12–21 March 2012–Operations : Field activities and Joint Forces Cooperation, balancing
safety for “localpopulation” and fighting military opposition in a demanding environment.

The Russians saw it as readiness preparation for an invasion , destruction of their Northern fleet bases
and generally very unfriendly intents

A good primer
http://www.globalresearch.ca/top-of-the ... ctic/30508

At the time , Putin had just bee re-elected ,
Obama waited three weeks before sending the customary congratulation telegram ,
everybody else , as normal would have send one in a matter of hours
in the Moscow streets , anti Putin demonstrations were led by people who had attended a meeting in the U.S. embassy with the brand new ambassador michael Macfaul
a man chosen for his belief in color coded revolutions

Now , why are those Russian so paranoia ?

[Tanada]

In all fairness Russia has plenty of reason to be paranoid if you study their history even a little bit. Just off the top of my head the Mongols devastated them when they came west in the 1230's, they had a running set of wars as long a list as your arm in the Balkans and with the Ottomans and Turks, England, France, Germany have all invaded them from time to time and the USA joined the club in 1919. Germany really did a number on them in World War II. Since the fall of the USSR just about every western power has tried to influence their political balance of power internally and externally.

The Russians have a few great things going for them, they have a well educated scientific class, they have vast natural resources, and now they are exploiting the NSR that they could have been exploiting during the Cold War but they were cautious about letting foreign flag merchants use the route back then. Between natural resources and natural trade routes things are really looking up for Russia these days, which is usually when they get attacked by someone who wants their assets.

[Newfie]

Just a few thoughts about above posts..

Canada ice service has some routing data for working in the arctic but it is a subscription and fairly expensive

US ice breaker fleet is a joke....old, small, obsolete

Canada ice breakers not much better. CCG is civil service, not military

Russian has by far the biggest and best ice breakers

North Canada regions have been very heavily subsidized for generations. These populations are generally not self sustaining in any way. Reading about the management of the cultures is painful. Not comparable to the situation in Europe. Not that Russia was good, just different.

Even in rural Newfoundland and coastal Quebeck there is very heavy subsidy via their version of unemployment insurance.

[sparky]

.
The subsidies I had in mind were subsidized food and groceries
the cost of transport to the remote stations is huge ,
the sea ways opening is like a breath of air for them

[Ibon]

Just a few thoughts about above posts..

Canada ice service has some routing data for working in the arctic but it is a subscription and fairly expensive

US ice breaker fleet is a joke....old, small, obsolete

Canada ice breakers not much better. CCG is civil service, not military

Russian has by far the biggest and best ice breakers

The average fee the average size cargo ship pays to pass through the Panama Canal is about $ 200,000.00. This fese is applied by tonnage of cargo. The expansion of the canal is going to allow cargo ships with 4 times the volume so it can be estimated that these mega cargo ships will each pay over $500,000 to pass through the canal. This is serious revenue.

Canada and the US are staring at an economic opportunity if they upgrade their ice breakers and charge a fee per ship by keeping a shipping lane open and free of ice if there is a more consistent opening of the northwest passage in the years ahead.

[Plantagenet]

Canada and the US are staring at an economic opportunity if they upgrade their ice breakers and charge a fee per ship by keeping a shipping lane open and free of ice

A lot of research on the Arctic Ocean sea ice is done here at the University of Alaska, and I've got a friend who is just back from a research cruise in the Arctic Ocean. Its just not practical or cost effective to keep a shipping lane open with ice breakers.



Natural openings in sea ice (called leads) and lanes cut by ice-breakers don't stay open very long. Shifts in wind cause the entire sea ice pack to constantly change direction so they can rapidly close any sea lane cut by an ice-breaker and crush any conventional ship in the shipping lane. You'd have to have ice-breaker escorts accompany every individual ship.

When the University of Alaska or NSF or IODP send research vessels or drill ships into the arctic, usually at least two ice breakers are assigned to each research/drill ship---one to break a path and a second to grind the large broken pieces of ice into smaller bits of ice that the research ship can deal with. The open water recloses behind the ships after a short period of time.

Arctic shipping lanes are definitely opening around the margins of the sea ice and will be used much more in the future, but only during the summer season when the sea ice naturally melts away. Its cheap and easy to monitor the exact location, drift direction and velocity of the shifting sea ice using satellites, and ship passages can be easily be timed and routed to ensure safe passage.

[Tanada]

http://www.marinelink.com/news/northern ... 55368.aspx

The Northern Sea Route administration has so far given 54 vessels permission to sail the route in 2013.

This year’s sailing season on the Northern Sea Route between Europe and Russia will probably be the busiest one ever. The first vessels to take the Arctic shortcut this summer will leave Murmansk at the end of June.

The Northern Sea Route Administration has so far received 89 applications to use the Northern Sea Route (NSR). 54 vessels have so far been given permission to sail along the route, reports the Barents Observer, citing the administration's (Russian language) web-site.

There has been a tenfold increase in the number of vessels using the NSR during the last couple of years. In 2012 46 vessels sailed the whole route, compared to 34 in 2011 and only four in 2010.

Source: Barents Observer

Four in 2010, Thirty Four in 2011, Forty Six in 2012, Eighty Nine in 2013. That is 850% growth the first year, 135% the second year and 193% this year.

I wonder if Suez even notices the difference seasonally yet? In June 2012 1,357 ships transited the Suez Canal. Some of those ships are going to and from ports that would be closer than using the norther sea route so they will keep using Suez, but ships heading for East Asia are a different story altogether. This could become an economic issue for Egypt which makes much money off of the Suez route. If China, Japan and Korea keep increasing their NSR traffic to the UK, Germany and the Netherlands it will cut into the Egyptian Suez income stream. At the same time Russia doesn't escort ships over the NSR for free so their income will be going up at the same time.

[Tanada]

http://www.arctic-info.com/News/Page/ex ... sea-route-

Experts believe that the intensity of navigation along the Northern Sea Route in the next eight years could rise 30-fold, and by 2030, a quarter of freight traffic between Europe and Asia may pass through Arctic waters.

According to the Assistant Director of Atomflot Mikhail Belkin, development of the Northern Sea Route Russia promises great benefits, Scientific American journal reports. The Northern Sea Route is not a rival to the Suez Canal, but it is a good seasonal supplement... and has the potential for rapid growth,” said Belkin.

Today, the Arctic shipping rates look insignificant in comparison with more traditional routes: about 1.5 million tonnes of cargo along the Northern Sea Route in the past year, while approximately 740 million tonnes pass through the Suez Canal. However, Belkin believes that by 2021, the turnover of the Northern Sea Route could total around 40 million tonnes. Earlier, the chief of staff of Atomflot naval operations, Vladimir Arutyunyan, the predicted annual growth of freight traffic is only up to 15 tonnes by 2020.

The use of the route in the Arctic Ocean is currently limited, not only because of ice, but because of inadequate infrastructure. However, in Russia, there is active construction of Arctic ports and technical rescue services along the route.

A quarter of the Suez traffic would be 300 ships just in the month of June each year, not an inconsequential number, and as the ice thins I think the shift will happen much faster than predicted. Think of it this way, if you have insurance and your competitor is saving fuel and crew pay by cutting thousands of miles off their journey you would be a fool not to do the same. The companies that leap on this opportunity will make more money than the others can possibly makes because of lower expenses.

[Tanada]

http://arcticportal.org/news/21-shippin ... -passable-

The total cargo transported on the NSR last year was 1 261 545 tons – a 53 percent increase from 2011, when 820 789 tons was shipped on the route. According to conservative estimates the amount will grow to 1, 5 million tons in 2013.

The Northern Sea Route is a shipping lane officially defined by Russian legislation from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific Ocean specifically running along the Russian Arctic coast from Murmansk on the Barents Sea, along Siberia, to the Bering Strait and Far East.

The entire route lies in Arctic waters and parts are free of ice for only two months per year. Before the beginning of the 20th century it was called the Northeast Passage, and is still sometimes referred to by that name.

If traffic starts on schedule this week that gives them all of July, August, September and October for travel over the Northern Sea Route. That is a full third of the year when the East Asia-North Europe trade can bypass the Suez canal route saving time. Time saved is fuel saved and crew pay saved. Time is money, and the shippers know it very well.

[C8]

I wonder if all that shipping will have an effect of increasing melt via albedo reducing soot, oil and sewage discharge affecting chemical melt points, ships breaking dark lanes through thin ice and accelerating melt or wave action disrupting fragile ice, engines transmitting heat through the water? Every little bit probably makes a difference.

[Tanada]

I wonder if all that shipping will have an effect of increasing melt via albedo reducing soot, oil and sewage discharge affecting chemical melt points, ships breaking dark lanes through thin ice and accelerating melt or wave action disrupting fragile ice, engines transmitting heat through the water? Every little bit probably makes a difference.

I am confidant it will have some effect, but the simple fact is global warming gasses have already altered the Arctic sea ice to such a large extent I doubt it will make much difference at all. The only reason the route has gained so much popularity so quickly is because the damage has already been done.