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New Zealand discussion (Merged) pt. 3

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: New rules for ocean oil exploration

Unread postby americandream » Wed 31 Aug 2011, 22:41:32

Graeme wrote:AD, Thanks for compliment. I'll read Capital if your read articles in this thread. Deal?


Haha. Ok. Deal.
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Re: New rules for ocean oil exploration

Unread postby Graeme » Wed 31 Aug 2011, 23:30:50

Links to more information can be found at the bottom of this article.
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Re: New rules for ocean oil exploration

Unread postby Graeme » Wed 07 Sep 2011, 21:42:57

Boom times for oil, gas exploration in New Zealand

The oil and gas sector is as busy as it has ever been, and more international explorers may follow the lead of recent arrivals, says industry leader John Bay.

Bay, chairman of the Petroleum Exploration and Production Association (Pepanz), said the arrival of Apache in New Zealand was pretty exciting in a region, the East Coast, that had been only lightly explored.

Apache followed Brazilian company Petrobras and United States firm Andarko, so was "good news" for the local industry.

"It is probably the most active period in New Zealand's exploration history," Bay said.

A handful of big international companies were here, as well as many smaller active firms, including Tag Oil.

"Apache is a solid company that operates worldwide and so you are bringing focus to New Zealand."

Shell had also recently joined an exploration joint venture in the Great South Basin, rather than largely just produce from Taranaki fields.

"It is a cycle of good news," Bay said.

If companies had a reputation of success, others may look at New Zealand, too.


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Re: New rules for ocean oil exploration

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 08 Sep 2011, 01:04:07

MD wrote:As for push-back... why should I care? I see little reason to address any of these issues with anything other than glib cynicism.

Knock yourself out. With that attitude, expect zero credibility or respect. Congratulations.

(Oh, by the way, you may have a BRIGHT future in American politics with those "credentials".)
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Question for Kiwis...

Unread postby Timo » Wed 13 Jun 2012, 13:30:09

I know there are some Kiwis here on this site, and i have a question for all of you regarding the Resource Management Act. I'm not a Kiwi, but i did twice interview for work there (Christchurch and Dunedin) as a Council Planner, and one of the things that i did quite a bit of research on was the administration of the RMA on daily physical development, in terms of construction, land use, and subdivisions. To say the least, as a non-Kiwi, and as a planner educated in the States, that whole experience was a bit overwhelming. I do have to say, though, that based on what i did learn about it, i liked it. So, here's my question: how does the RMA translate into a conscientous practice of resource conservation in the lives of the average Kiwi? In terms of PO, is there any merit for the RMA being used as a model policy for other nations elsewhere, as we all collectively transition toward a restricted resource norm?
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Re: New Zealand government report on PO: ~2012

Unread postby M_B_S » Mon 03 Sep 2012, 08:53:58

http://www.stuff.co.nz/technology/digit ... ed-to-cars

Google Earth man warns Kiwis addicted to cars
Tim Foresman, a former Nasa scientist and environmental adviser to the United Nations, is here to attend the 'Digital Earth' summit in Wellington.

On Friday, after delivering a lecture to pupils at Auckland's exclusive King's School, Foresman told Fairfax Media NZ that, despite New Zealand's tiny population, it could be the 'Kiwi that roared' and show international leadership on environmental and sustainability issues.

But first, said Foresman, we need a closer look at how we move people and stuff around. He said our car "addiction' ensures 'mass transit is in the Iron Age for New Zealand... you're back there with the Neanderthals in terms of your energy and transportation plans'.
*************************************

In the not to far away future people will hate their cars.

The nightmare NO OIL for imports is on the way.

PEAK OIL

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Re: New Zealand government report on PO: ~2012

Unread postby seenmostofit » Mon 03 Sep 2012, 12:12:47

Lanthanide wrote:Just thought I'd throw this up there for people to discuss:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/4228359 ... -economies

"The paper, The Next Oil Shock, says that known oil reserves would last for another 25 to 32 years, but an oil ''supply crunch'' could occur in 2012 or shortly afterwards as demand rises and supplies fail to keep pace."


Insert Queens "Another One Bites the Dust" song here.
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Re: New Zealand government report on PO: ~2012

Unread postby Graeme » Mon 03 Sep 2012, 18:40:58

New Zealand's energy strategies can be viewed here.
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Re: New Zealand government report on PO: ~2012

Unread postby ralfy » Tue 04 Sep 2012, 01:25:15

The need for finding other sources of energy is expected. The problem is dealing with an oil-hungry manufacturing and mechanized agriculture base. In which case, one expects resource consumption to drop eventually.
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Re: New Zealand government report on PO: ~2012

Unread postby seenmostofit » Tue 04 Sep 2012, 08:43:16

ralfy wrote:The need for finding other sources of energy is expected.


Until someone really gets the dilithium crystals cranked up and moving, other sources of energy aren't the main issue because there just aren't that many, and they are quite well known. There is solar (in both its distributed daily form like sunlight, current organic forms like trees, and stored historical forms like fossil fuels) and radioactive isotopes.

Certainly fossil fuels aren't a source of anything, any more than a tree is.

ralfy wrote:The problem is dealing with an oil-hungry manufacturing and mechanized agriculture base. In which case, one expects resource consumption to drop eventually.


Manufacturing and mechanized agriculture isn't near as "oil hungry" as silly humans burning the stuff in car engines to get a fat soccer mom to and from her manicure appointment. And yes, I am sure the Kiwis have some form of "Fat American Soccer Mom-itis".

http://www.imperfectparent.com/topics/2 ... ola-a-day/
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Kiwi companies bring affordable solar power

Unread postby Graeme » Sat 08 Sep 2012, 19:35:31

Kiwi companies bring affordable solar power

We are pleased to announce the launch today of The Warehouse's country-wide Solar Roof Shout and Kiwibank's Sustainable Energy Loan, helping Kiwi families install solar for as little as $2.50 a day.

The Warehouse will showcase SolarCity solar power systems in six stores every weekend, starting today, reaching 42 stores across the country over the next year and offering a $250 voucher for every system sold.

Mark Powell, Group Chief Executive Officer of The Warehouse says it's important that two leading Kiwi companies are helping to bring solar power to Kiwis at a better price, to help them combat ever-increasing electricity costs.

"The price of electricity has increased by 84% in the past ten years and many of our communities are struggling to pay their power bills," Powell says. "New Zealand has plenty of sunshine so we want to educate Kiwis about solar power, and help make it more affordable for families.

"By having SolarCity experts in different stores across the country, we can help our customers understand how they can best reduce the energy costs they face," he says.

Kiwibank's new Sustainable Energy Loan is designed to help make it more affordable for people to generate their own energy, with the bank contributing up to $2000 towards the cost of financing each system installed.

Kiwibank Chief Executive Paul Brock says it is great that an organisation with the reach of The Warehouse is demonstrating how the new Sustainable Energy Loan can work for Kiwis.


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Petrobras quits NZ

Unread postby yeahbut » Mon 10 Dec 2012, 02:26:29

Where conservation groups and local Maori fail, economic reality kicks in instead...

Brazilian oil giant Petrobras has pulled out of New Zealand, Prime Minister John Key has confirmed.

The state-run energy company has handed back its prospecting licences, he said.

The world's third-biggest oil company with sales of close to $150 billion a year, Petrobras had planned to invest $300m over the next three years in exploration and production.

Key denies the pull-out has anything to do with Greenpeace and Te Whanau a Apanui protests at plans for deep-sea drilling off the East Coast.

Petrobras is struggling with rising inflation in Brazil and is having to import gasoline to meet demand because it lacks refinery capacity.

It is reported to be considering selling off assets in Africa and the US and recently withdrew from a huge ethanol pipeline project.

The news is a blow to the Government's aim to grow the oil and gas sector. In August, Texan oil company Anadarko announced delays to their plans to deep-sea drill off the coast until summer 2013.



Finance minister Bill English shrugged off the loss - saying other companies are interested...

...He admitted New Zealand's oil and gas reserves are a "challenge" to get to.

"It's not as easy as some other resources around the world, but their decisions will be affected as much by world energy markets as by anything about New Zealand."


Maybe they'll be back at $150/barrel?

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Re: Petrobras quits NZ

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 10 Dec 2012, 08:09:55

I dunno, sounds like they are having serious internal problems at Petrobras. I think they need to hit President Obama up for another loan, he seemed quite taken with their sub salt exploration a couple years ago so I am sure he would be good for it.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Petrobras quits NZ

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 10 Dec 2012, 12:45:01

I believe this is Petrobras' need to redirect capital to their deep sub-salt discoveries offshore Brazil. They are also rumored to be selling all of their interests in Argentina.
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Re: Petrobras quits NZ

Unread postby Graeme » Mon 10 Dec 2012, 18:03:27

However, documents released to Green Party MP Gareth Hughes under the Official Information Act reveal that in August the company applied for an extension to its work programme "in order to make a more informed decision" about whether it would complete it or surrender the permit.

The reason for the application was that it was "in the process of identifying a potential partner to share the investments related to the work programme", said Petrobras lawyer Marcos Jose de Souza.

The company had already carried out 2D seismic surveying over more than 3000 square kilometres of the basin - priced at US$5 million - some of it interrupted by protesters from Greenpeace and East Cape iwi Te Whanau a Apanui.

Petrobras believed that "the possibility of sharing the costs of the next phase would increase the chances of approval of the of the 3D seismic survey by Petrobras upper management", the application said.

But the company's decision to surrender its permit indicated that it had not managed to find such a partner, said Mr Hughes, the Green Party energy spokesman.

"The Government is trying to spin it that Petrobras wanted to focus on its business in Brazil, but Petrobras tried to get an investment partner for the Raukumara Basin and failed," Mr Hughes said.

"Potential business partners would no doubt be aware that Petrobras's risky plans in the basin attracted massive public opposition from Te Whanau a Apanui and the public.


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Re: Response from NZ Minister of Energy

Unread postby Graeme » Mon 25 Mar 2013, 21:50:53

I emailed the Murray and King commentary to our Minister of Energy and Resources, Simon Bridges, yesterday. I asked him what is the National government's policy now. With his permission, I will post his response.
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Re: Response from NZ Minister of Energy

Unread postby Graeme » Mon 01 Apr 2013, 18:56:00

I also emailed the report from the Energy Watch Group to the Minister. I just received an email this morning from his secretary. Apparently, I have permission to publish his response. As soon as I receive it, I will post.
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Re: Response from NZ Minister of Energy

Unread postby Graeme » Wed 10 Apr 2013, 22:48:09

Here is the Minister's response:

Dear Graeme,
Thank you for your emails of 25 and 30 March 2013, and various documents referenced in the emails, about peak oil.

Peak oil, as you know, refers to the point at which global oil production will reach its maximum out (or “peak”) and thereafter begin to decline. Some hold the view that this point will be reached once we have depleted half of all the oil that can ever be recovered technically and economically. However, it could also come about due to a future decline in oil demand rather than a physical supply constraint.
The government’s data on global oil production figures, and the oil market more generally, comes from a number of sources, most prominently the International Energy Agency (IEA), of which New Zealand is a member. The IEA is the most credible public source of information on the global oil market as it has access to comprehensive market information that is ordinarily not made public for reasons of government or commercial sensitivity.

While it is known that oil is a non-renewable resource and a decline in production inevitable, it is still uncertain when this decline will occur. The IEA has no official estimate of when this decline will occur, but the IEA World Energy Outlook 2012 argues that known reserves of natural gas liquids and unconventional oil are, in principle, large enough to keep total oil production rising for “several decades” if necessary. In particular, net oil production is projected to rise from 84 million barrels a day in 2011 to 97 million barrels per day in 2035, the increase coming entirely from natural gas liquids and unconventional sources.

The problem with accurately projecting if and when a decline in oil production will occur lies in the fact that there are basic questions about the quantity of the world’s oil resources that remain unanswered.

A key part o the problem is that there is no way to know how much oil remains to be discovered and how future exploration and production technologies will affect the amount of that oil that can be recovered. It is also unclear what impact price and government policies relating to efficiency, climate change and research into alternative fuels will have on the demand side.

The government takes the issue of peak oil seriously and is ensuring that policies are in place to support the transition to alternative sources o energy, particularly in transport. Such alternatives are already beginning to enter the market, such as biofuels, hydrid and electric vehicles. Throught the Petroleum Action Plan, the government is also committed to further development of our domestic petroleum resources.

At the international level, New Zealand is actively engaged with international organisations like the IEA and the International Energy Forum to improve international energy data transparency and help provide greater clarity around remaining global reserves. We are also engaged in collaborative R & D partnerships via the IEA to help improve or develop new alternative sources of energy.
The New Zealand Energy Strategy 2011-2021 (NZES) outlines the government’s view of the role of energy in the economy and identifies the risks, challenges and opportunities around energy in New Zealand. Issues relating to liquid fuels are covered in the NZES, and the link to the document on the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment website is:

http://www.med.govt.nz/sectors-industri ... strategies

You asked if my reply to your emails could be published in a peak oil internet forum site. I have no objection to this, and suggest you look at the link below on the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment website which sets out the government’s views on peak oil, as contained in this letter.

http://www.med.govt.nz/sectors-industri ... y/peak-oil

Yours sincerely

Hon Simon Bridges
Minister of Energy and Resources
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Response from the NZ Minister of Energy

Unread postby Graeme » Wed 10 Apr 2013, 23:00:29

I have been corresponding with various Ministers' of Energy from both political parties in New Zealand since 2007. I would like to post the latest response to emails to our current National (Conservative party) Minister of Energy and Resources. I included in my email references to the Murray and King paper, and the report from the Energy Watch Group, and I asked him what now is the government's position on peak oil. I'd like to include it here as well as the Australia and New Zealand discussion because here non-members can read his letter.

Dear Graeme,
Thank you for your emails of 25 and 30 March 2013, and various documents referenced in the emails, about peak oil.

Peak oil, as you know, refers to the point at which global oil production will reach its maximum output (or “peak”) and thereafter begin to decline. Some hold the view that this point will be reached once we have depleted half of all the oil that can ever be recovered technically and economically. However, it could also come about due to a future decline in oil demand rather than a physical supply constraint.

The government’s data on global oil production figures, and the oil market more generally, comes from a number of sources, most prominently the International Energy Agency (IEA), of which New Zealand is a member. The IEA is the most credible public source of information on the global oil market as it has access to comprehensive market information that is ordinarily not made public for reasons of government or commercial sensitivity.

While it is known that oil is a non-renewable resource and a decline in production inevitable, it is still uncertain when this decline will occur. The IEA has no official estimate of when this decline will occur, but the IEA World Energy Outlook 2012 argues that known reserves of natural gas liquids and unconventional oil are, in principle, large enough to keep total oil production rising for “several decades” if necessary. In particular, net oil production is projected to rise from 84 million barrels a day in 2011 to 97 million barrels per day in 2035, the increase coming entirely from natural gas liquids and unconventional sources.

The problem with accurately projecting if and when a decline in oil production will occur lies in the fact that there are basic questions about the quantity of the world’s oil resources that remain unanswered.

A key part o the problem is that there is no way to know how much oil remains to be discovered and how future exploration and production technologies will affect the amount of that oil that can be recovered. It is also unclear what impact price and government policies relating to efficiency, climate change and research into alternative fuels will have on the demand side.

The government takes the issue of peak oil seriously and is ensuring that policies are in place to support the transition to alternative sources o energy, particularly in transport. Such alternatives are already beginning to enter the market, such as biofuels, hydrid and electric vehicles. Throught the Petroleum Action Plan, the government is also committed to further development of our domestic petroleum resources.

At the international level, New Zealand is actively engaged with international organisations like the IEA and the International Energy Forum to improve international energy data transparency and help provide greater clarity around remaining global reserves. We are also engaged in collaborative R & D partnerships via the IEA to help improve or develop new alternative sources of energy.

The New Zealand Energy Strategy 2011-2021 (NZES) outlines the government’s view of the role of energy in the economy and identifies the risks, challenges and opportunities around energy in New Zealand. Issues relating to liquid fuels are covered in the NZES, and the link to the document on the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment website is:

http://www.med.govt.nz/sectors-industri ... strategies

You asked if my reply to your emails could be published in a peak oil internet forum site. I have no objection to this, and suggest you look at the link below on the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment website which sets out the government’s views on peak oil, as contained in this letter.

http://www.med.govt.nz/sectors-industri ... y/peak-oil

Yours sincerely

Hon Simon Bridges
Minister of Energy and Resources


Does anybody have any comments?
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Re: Response from the NZ Minister of Energy

Unread postby energy investor » Sun 14 Apr 2013, 22:42:15

Hi Graeme,

The "Yes Minister" doublespeak is hardly surprising as most ministerial advisers have been taught peak oil is rubbish.

I have been analysing the information on global oil supply and demand from all published works I can get my hands on since March 2005. But as the New Zealand market has no impact on global pricing, I don't tend to enter into debates on what is happening here.

I am aware that the interest of the NZ government in peak oil has been driven by the IEA advice and disclosure, which has meant that New Zealand had been left in the dark until about 2010, over the true nature of future supply realities, almost certainly due to the influence of the US Government upon the published work of the IEA.

IMHO the local government sector has been reasonably well informed on resource scarcity and such issues as peak oil, even if they have been impotent to remmedy central government neglect.

It is unsurprising that the minister with the energy portfolio is a lawyer and it is also unsurprising that we have elected to hold "paper reserves" in the execution of our entire obligations to the IEA to hold 90 days of reserves. IMHO the official policy on energy security and peak oil could more accurately be said to be :

"Let's not frighten the horses".

Fortuitously we have some domestic production of oil but that varies in volume and I understand that for the most part it is exported as unsuitable for the Marsden Point refinery.

So in extremis, we will be reliant on long delivery lead times and paper obligations. In fact our true reserves are what is either on the way to Marsden point, at the refinery or downstream of the refinery. Nothing more and nothing less...that is unless a shipment due for us gets diverted elsewhere. Then we would be further in the doggy-doos.

We are part of the OECD and as such we are used to the vicarious use of our Marsden Point oil fractions at prices below the cost of bottled water - despite taxes being paid on liquid fuels.

There seems to me to be no substantive effort to increase efficiency standards - despite the rhetoric.

I would as a good tax paying Kiwi be rather blase about this, were it not for my estimate that global conventional oil production is likely to enter ongoing decline from Q4, 2013. This should become apparent to the general public from early/mid 2014, despite finger pointing from the "drill baby, drill" brigade.

Of course any one of my estimates and assumptions underlying this forecast is open to challenge so I never reveal or discuss how I came to this assessment. Many of the assessments are based on published statistical information, but many are contributed to by subjective value judgements. For example the degree to which China is contractually entitled to first claim on oil which is presently being sold to third parties on the open market, and the strategies of certain governments with jungles or sandpits to slow development or depress output in order to maintain high prices. Then there are geopolitical factors.

I do hope you maintain your dialogue with the minister because it won't be our obligations to IEA that provide us with true reserves when we are in extremis. It will be what we have in physical storage that will matter.

To be honest, I don't think, aside from extra storage, there is much our Government can do until the reality of peak oil smacks us in the chops....but...

If it is good enough for China and India to build massive storage facilities, why should we not do so too? Vehicle emission standards and efficiency regs should get more stringent. Public transport plans WRT electrification need further effort.

Legislation to limit protest action over exploration and development would be a step forward if we were to stretch out our domestic oil production. But even that will require national dialogue and levels of disclosure that the Government is clearly not prepared to make.

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