THE 2012 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

[Beery1]

Ah, there's plenty of time for a spike. I wouldn't count your high out just yet.

WTI has been following a seasonal pattern over the last two years. If it continues to follow that, there's a good chance of seeing at least 110 again before the year's out, and then just a little nudge would get us close to 120.

[SeaGypsy]

To my eye Pop's theorem is holding true to form, just a bit out on scale. There could yet be a spike, but it would take calamity or bliss. Calamity is being averted by diplomacy; for the time being, bliss, well the Olympics are supposed to give us a bit of that, but enough?

[SeaGypsy]

The latest Eurobank commitment "Whatever it takes to save the Euro" seems to be holding a bit of a run, let's see how long in lasts! Any update for July's end?

[PeakOiler]

There has been very little change in the standings from two weeks ago. You're still #2 SeaGypsy.
And the force of Obiwan is still working...

So if y'all don't mind, I'll post an update after next week's EIA report.

[seenmostofit]

There has been very little change in the standings from two weeks ago. You're still #2 SeaGypsy.
And the force of Obiwan is still working...

So if y'all don't mind, I'll post an update after next week's EIA report.

Obiwan soldiers on in silence....perhaps he/she just can't stand the idea of adulation among the peak oil ranks?

[SeaGypsy]

Na, been banned for life and if whoever it is wants to brag in their new ID, that ID will also be banned. Onya Shorty!

[Outcast_Searcher]

That depends on how much of an ass they make of themselves. I can imagine some very clued-up people whose intellect might easily be overshadowed by the fact that they are complete buttdumplings.

Buttdumplings, what a great word.

My 10th grade English Lit. teacher always got on my back for lack of descriptive imagery in my papers. If only I had great words like these!

Now I seem to like simple somewhat uncommon words, like "ilk"...

[Beery1]

Buttdumplings, what a great word. ...

I stole it, from (dare I admit it?) Beavis and Butt-Head.

[PeakOiler]

Buttdumplings, what a great word. ...

I stole it, from (dare I admit it?) Beavis and Butt-Head.

Yeah, when I read that word, I actually laughed.

So here's the latest scorecard:



If the closing price gets to $95.22, SeaGypsy will be #1.

Obiwan's lead is in jeopardy.

[Beery1]

I think there's a good chance of it getting past there. The Israelis are making noises again.

[sparky]

.
The OPEC basket price , which is the backbone of actual Saudi oil export price
has been bouncing back strongly .
it dipped below 90 US$ but is now back to its historical trend at 109 $ and rising
it leave the big question unanswered
did the Saudi stop producing over their quota out of choice or out of nescessity ??

[PeakOiler]

With Tuesday's closing price of $93.67, the scorecard was essentially unchanged from last time. The only difference was that wyllydtron and wisconsin_cur switched positions.

[SeaGypsy]

I think I just overtook the silent one!

[PeakOiler]

I think I just overtook the silent one!

lol
I got home from work, turned on the comp, and went to
http://www.cx-portal.com/wti/oil_en.html
and looked at the Dukascopy Bank ticker for WTI.

I put the latest hourly price into my "What If" page of the 2012 Oil Price Challenge workbook and sorted the data. Lo and behold, SeaGypsy had the lead by one cent!

We'll have to wait until the EIA releases their report next Wednesday for the "official" results, and of course the closing price next Tuesday may be lower than today's.
Nevertheless, looks like a lead change may have occurred for at least a little while...

May the force be with you.

[SeaGypsy]

Lo and behold, SeaGypsy had the lead by one cent!...
May the force be with you.

If I had been using my figures (or anyone had started to); with a buy in price $2.00 over my low guess and a sell out $2.00 under my high/ I would have bought a whack of barrels this year but not sold any. Makes me think of the increasingly solid floor based on speculation.

[SeaGypsy]

Looks like being in the $96.40/ 70 range. Puts me out with a $3.00ish lead.

[PeakOiler]

Yes, we have a new leader folks:



SeaGypsy has been #1 for the last four days. Congratulations!

I bumped up one place since the last scorecard.

I should have bet pup55 another bottle of his homebrew, but I'm afraid pup55 has quit po.com.

Edit: Please ignore the "As of 7-Aug" in the scorecard. It should read: "As of 21-Aug".

[ColossalContrarian]

Hopefully pup55 will be back for New Years! As far as SeaGypsy being #1.... he'll have to pick last next year so nobody can copy his picks or use them for reference!

[basil_hayden]

Enter, Chaos!

[sparky]

.
The low value is looking solid for the rest of the year ,
the high is still a work in progress ,
there was a severe dip around the end of June but prices have picked up with a veangeance

the West Texas price is still a bit of a joke with severe differential with all the other indexes