Drought spells beginning of the end for corn ethanol?

[dohboi]

NYTimes
Corn for Food, Not Fuel

IT is not often that a stroke of a pen can quickly undo the ravages of nature, but federal regulators now have an opportunity to do just that. Americans’ food budgets will be hit hard by the ongoing Midwestern drought, the worst since 1956. Food bills will rise and many farmers will go bust.

CBSNews
Livestock farmers hurt by soaring grain prices

Forty percent of the national corn harvest last year went to ethanol production under the federal government's renewable fuel standard, requiring petroleum companies to buy a minimum amount of ethanol to blend into gasoline supplies.

David Hardin, along with many of his neighbors, wants the government to waive the requirement during this drought so he can compete fairly for the supply he needs instead of paying sky high prices for what little is left.

The ethanol industry opposes any changes and says its consumption of corn is down nearly 14 percent in just the last six weeks. "This is the worst I have ever seen in my lifetime and I hope it stays the worst that I've ever experienced," Hardin said.

Experts on the ethanol market say a federal waiver is extremely unlikely this year. But if the drought continues, it could tee up a real battle next year between ethanol industry that helps to power our cars and the livestock farmers who produce the meat we eat.

Reuters
Drought spurs ethanol push-back; World Bank watchful

The debate over using crops for fuel burst back onto the political stage on Monday as U.S. ranchers and poultry producers sought "a little help" from the government by waiving its ethanol mandate in the face of a dire drought.

As Chicago corn and soybean prices rallied back toward last week's record highs, the withering dry spell that has revived fears of a 2008-like spike in food prices showed no sign of relenting. According to midday weather forecasts, conditions will be even drier than expected, threatening to stunt soy plants as they enter their most crucial phase of growth.

On Monday, Oklahoma Governor Mary Fallin declared a state of emergency for all 77 Oklahoma counties due to extreme or exceptional drought conditions. The executive order allows state agencies to make emergency purchases related to disaster relief and preparedness, and is a first step toward asking for federal assistance...

The country's cattle, turkey and chicken producers have been among those hardest and most directly hit by a more than 50 percent surge in corn futures since mid-June, which has inflated costs and squeezed profits.

Their lobby groups banded together on Monday to seek a first-ever waiver from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for a one-year reduction or suspension in the U.S. ethanol mandate, which in essence requires that more than a third of the U.S. corn harvest be used for motor fuel.

[dissident]

At some stage the US will have to decide whether aquifer water is more valuable to use for food or for fuel. People think that the 1930s Dust Bowl was some sort of outlier event not likely to be repeated. But in fact it is use of aquifer water (e.g. Ogallala) that is preventing a regular repeat of the regional climate feedback that resulted in the Dust Bowl. The problem is not just lack of rain during drought events such as 2011/12.

[dinopello]

The US might also decide whether it wants to do some water infrastructure projects to help mitigate the effects of drought in our bread basket. Like store water when/where it rains and transport it to where it is needed. I wonder if Oklahomans would accept such a big government project being as how they are the independent, wild west types. Maybe the private sector will do it ?

[Keith_McClary]

The US might also decide whether it wants to do some water infrastructure projects to help mitigate the effects of drought in our bread basket. Like store water when/where it rains and transport it to where it is needed. I wonder if Oklahomans would accept such a big government project being as how they are the independent, wild west types. Maybe the private sector will do it ?

Dams tend to exterminate wildlife by destroying their habitat (but no photogenic piles of dead oiled ducks like the Tar Sands). You'll need lots of EPA waivers to keep you in SUVs, beer & Cheetos.

[dinopello]

Dams tend to exterminate wildlife by destroying their habitat (but no photogenic piles of dead oiled ducks like the Tar Sands). You'll need lots of EPA waivers to keep you in SUVs, beer & Cheetos.

Beer will be with us until the end times. The others I can do without. You really have a problem with beavers I see.



Anyway, who said anything about dams?

[Pops]

The food vs fuel argument is specious, corn doesn't feed humans it feeds livestock. Prior to cheap corn, beef cut grass, hogs recycled and chickens were seasoning – on special occasions (a chicken in every pot – <on Sunday> was the wish of some French King in the 1700s))

The growing global working class wants Egg & Sausage McMuffins and Big Macs with cheese and milkshakes, that is what will cause poor people to starve.

I'm sure everyone knows this but I'll repeat it anyway, whole corn feed value (approx) is 3/4 carbs and 1/4 protein/fat, when fed whole it requires additional protein. When you remove the starch by distilling ethanol you're left with a high protein feed that is almost 150% as nutritious per pound as whole corn. The net effect is that for every 2bu of corn used to make ethanol there is the equivalent of one bu of (whole corn) feed for livestock left over.

So, like a lot of FF demand can be attributed to growing wages, so can corn and livestock prices. You can see in this chart from '10 that feed has been depressed a little but not as much as you might guess.




P.S. Which isn't to say I support ethanol but facts are facts. Corn at this price is ruinous to marginal land, a groundwater depleter and ethanol itself is only barely is an energy positive - an oil extender at best. Not to mention the additional demand from ethanol - and the drought - has driven prices high enough to cost me perhaps a quarter to a third of my income so far this year.

[PeakOiler]

I thought this was an interesting article: Minyanville Report

As the US Corn Crop Withers, Ethanol Markets Soar, and Then Slip

These are the times that ethanol opponents warned about.

Ethanol producers are definitely cutting back on buying corn now.

Here's the latest chart from the EIA after the report above was released:

See EIA

[Pops]

Thanks for the chart. I think there is some flexibility in the RFM rules, for example there is a carryover from year to year so if a bender used more ethanol last year they can use less this year and not be penalized. I'm not sure that the mandate is the problem with unleaded prices this high.

[Ferretlover]

Just think: if all the corn was that genetically modified junk that does not reproduce.

[Keith_McClary]

Anyway, who said anything about dams?

"Like store water when/where it rains" - Were you thinking plastic bottles?

Dams tend to exterminate wildlife by destroying their habitat (but no photogenic piles of dead oiled ducks like the Tar Sands). You'll need lots of EPA waivers to keep you in SUVs, beer & Cheetos.

Beer will be with us until the end times. The others I can do without. You really have a problem with beavers I see.

Beaver dams create habitat for birds and frogs, not so good for fish, maybe. Water diversion projects create habitat for invasive water weeds.

[Keith_McClary]

[Pops]

Corn's holding at $8 on a little cooler weather and some rain, trading volume is to the downside.
Ethanol is down a quarter from last month.
The next USDA report is out Friday, - analysts say harvest is a touch over 11B bu

[dinopello]

How long does corn meant for ethanol keep in a silo ?

[dinopello]

Anyway, who said anything about dams?

"Like store water when/where it rains" - Were you thinking plastic bottles?.

My rain barrels actually are made from plastic, but they look like terra cotta.

[Pops]

How long does corn meant for ethanol keep in a silo ?

If it is good and dry probably a year without too much degradation.

[Pops]

http://www.extension.iastate.edu/CropNe ... more02.htm

[Lore]

Too late for corn....

(Reuters) - Rain and cooler temperatures in the drought-stricken U.S. Midwest crop belt will provide relief for late-season soybeans, but the change in the weather is arriving too late to help the already severely damaged corn crop, an agricultural meteorologist said on Wednesday.

"It's definitely better than what we've had but I'd be hesitant to call it a drought-buster. Longer-term outlooks still look like a return to warm and dry," said Jason Nicholls, meteorologist for AccuWeather.

Commodity Weather Group (CWG) on Wednesday said about one-third of the Midwest soybean crop could remain under significant stress from lack of moisture.

CWG also said the popular weather models on which forecasts are based were in some disagreement on Wednesday about the amount of moisture the Midwest is likely to receive over the next couple of days. The dueling forecasts led to some skepticism that significant rains would fall.

Relentless heat and drought have slashed prospects for the U.S. corn crop to a five-year low. The supply of corn next year is expected to fall to its lowest level in nearly 20 years.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Friday will release its August crop report; traders were bracing for the worst.

U.S. soybean inventories could fall to their lowest level in 32 years as the drought continues to trim U.S. soybean production prospects.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/ ... I320120808

My questions are, will this persist and is this the new regimen that we're shifting into? How many years can the current world population exist under decreasing crop output?

[Pops]

Most corn is fed to meat and effectively half of what is fed to cars is also fed to meat. If people ate corn alone just the US production of corn could feed a billion and a quarter people.
(2k cal/person/day, corn @ 100 cal/oz, 52lb/bu, 11B bu this year)

But we'd rather eat protein fed on grain and you can get whatever number you want for feed conversion. You could probably find a citation that says that 11B bu feeds about 17 steers. LOL

Suffice to say that rising incomes in the poor world that enable more people to eat Big Macs is at least as big a problem for the still very poor starving of the world as ethanol.

Think of it like this, every pound of commercial beef you consume effectively removes 5-10 pounds of tortillas from the plate of a person who can't afford beef.

[dsula]

World population still rising, therefore there's still too much food around.

[Ferretlover]

Too late for corn....

(Reuters) - Rain and cooler temperatures in the drought-stricken U.S. Midwest crop belt will provide relief for late-season soybeans, but the change in the weather is arriving too late to help the already severely damaged corn crop, an agricultural meteorologist said on Wednesday. ...
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/ ... I320120808

My questions are, will this persist and is this the new regimen that we're shifting into? How many years can the current world population exist under decreasing crop output?

Most of world's calories and protein are fed to the cattle and pets, so... Even with a decreasing production population can be rising well into the 10 digits. As meat will be increasingly expensive and scarce, at some point human flesh won't be discarded anymore, simply for economical reasons. Just like now the value of organs of an average human exceeds, by far, his economic potential , it will be the same for his meat, bones and offal. And mind me reminding you, it's much easier to train 1 butcher than a whole team of surgeons.