THE 2012 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

[SeaGypsy]

Regardless of the outcome of our little event here, I am most looking forward to Pop's theorem, graphics work prediction outcome. (I guess that's what your guess is based on Pops?) My prediction was that there will be a breakthrough Pop's line, which presupposes a top price based on decreasing market capacity (ability or willingness) to meet price shocks/ spikes, sooner rather than later. I'm not at all a graph plotting wiz. My reflection is that Pop's is fundamentally (as well as mathematically) correct; but that there will be breakthrough spikes punctuating the linear slide, forming another kind of 'bumpiness' to the plateau. If certain posters around here are correct, this yo-yo cycle is a very long way from over.
(Cross referenced from Brent thread/ Would love to see one from Pops on the same meme re.WTI)

The base line definitely seems to be reinforced this year (at present).
Memoe had some IMO very insightful views on the relevant geo political climate effects in another thread, suggesting there are very complex and dangerous deals going on to reinforce this high end production base cost/ real world minimum price reflection; scary but (wow).

Welcome to peak oil and the bumpy plateau!

[Pops]

This was my latest doodle from a couple of weeks ago, Gypsie, Brent went through the "wedge" I drew earlier, first the ceiling but then fell on rising commercial stocks (spare capacity) but not quite to the floor line ($90+/-) and is now up a little.



So the question is what is the band now? I can't see why prices would be rising with demand falling, stocks increasing and refineries running at 92%(?) capacity unless this is the dead cat bounce before a bigger drop.

I'd guess if by some miracle the EU and China don't go into bankruptcy - and - governments keep inventing money, the world price is going to bounce along around $100 - $120 which appears to be about as much as the economy can stand. Add in your favorite black swan weight as a volatility factor and subtract out whatever for local conditions in Cushing, Oklahoma to get WTI.

Nothin to it

[PeakOiler]

Smileys are on 'post reply' not 'quick reply
Sorry my body clock is out of whack.

Well now we are all in for some fun.... YeeeeeeHahhhhh!

Yes, that's what I wrote above, that smilies were not showing up in the "Post Reply" screen. I've never used the "Quick Reply" function.

This evening, however, I can see the images again! Hooray! I thought I might have to give up being the scorekeeper for the PO.com Challenge if I couldn't see the images. Pops and jdmartin know Excel, so one of them would have to take over the responsibility of score-keeping if I get, say, run over over by the Hostess Twinkie truck tomorrow... lol

btw, if the high price goes to $121.23, and somewhat above, (which I don't think it will now) I would still have a chance of beating you, Seagypsy! (Assuming the year's low stays at $78.20.)

The race is only half over. We'll see what happens...

[SeaGypsy]

I think we will see more than a dead cat bounce, more like a ceiling test, sooner than later. Pops, have you been out picking strawberries? There is a new accord in Europe, for however long it lasts, likely at least the rest of this year. I don't think there is any shortage of demand for oil under about $80. Also with SA turning down the spigots this and next month, optimism about EU + restricted supply out of SA and Iran, other Arab Spring states, no movement but up makes sense for the time being.

The rest of this year's race looks more intense than ever.

[PeakOiler]

Pops, could I get a copy of the Excel workbook that you used to make the charts you showed us above? I thought it would be interesting to do the same with WTI data.

EIA reported a new WTI low price on June 28th, but as most are aware, there's been a jump in prices in just the last couple of days.
(Edit: Please ignore the "As of June 26" in the scorecard. That should read "As of 3-July".)



I updated the 2012 Oil Price Challenge Leader's list:

Kublikhan 35 27%
Repent 34 27%
Cog 30 23%
Obiwan 26 20%
Daniel_Plainview 3 2%
# of reported days: 128 100%

I'm thinking Obiwan may have been one of the aliases that a banned poster had, and that's why we don't read any more comments from Obiwan.

[Beery1]

Things seem to be moving up again. Of course, since I've said it, prices will probably drop like a stone.

If they do keep moving up, they still have a way to go before the leadership changes drastically, but if it gets back past the 100 mark, we might see some interesting changes.

[seenmostofit]

I'm thinking Obiwan may have been one of the aliases that a banned poster had, and that's why we don't read any more comments from Obiwan.

Interesting. So posters with the ability to lead the price boards for long periods of time are the ones we want to make darn sure we don't ever hear from again?

[PeakOiler]

Here's the latest scorecard:



I'm in the top ten!

[PeakOiler]

Interesting. So posters with the ability to lead the price boards for long periods of time are the ones we want to make darn sure we don't ever hear from again?

Only the moderators could confirm my suspicion.

[SeaGypsy]

Can I be beaten by a banned poster? Even if he has reincarnated and won't admit so? Oh well, it's still early days...
Anyone want to know how I do it?

[careinke]

Can I be beaten by a banned poster? Even if he has reincarnated and won't admit so? Oh well, it's still early days...
Anyone want to know how I do it?

Do tell.

[SeaGypsy]

Intuition.

[vtsnowedin]

Interesting that the guy in 38th place today has a very plausable chance of winning the whole thing if prices start back up in a solid way and end high at the end of the year.

[SeaGypsy]

That's a big if. No blooming way known. The current run up is based on money printing agreements in Europe and on China's relatively sustained growth figures for the first 2 quarters. Both of which are paper tigers.

The price will top out way under Iper's fantasy, as demand destruction will cut in roughly where I said it will. The faster the run up, the sharper the spike and quicker the run back down. The world STILL does not 'get' peak oil.

[Beery1]

I'm thinking Obiwan may have been one of the aliases that a banned poster had, and that's why we don't read any more comments from Obiwan.

Interesting. So posters with the ability to lead the price boards for long periods of time are the ones we want to make darn sure we don't ever hear from again?

That depends on how much of an ass they make of themselves. I can imagine some very clued-up people whose intellect might easily be overshadowed by the fact that they are complete buttdumplings.

[SeaGypsy]

If peakoil.com was in the business of getting rid of accurate forecasters,
I would have got the arse by now.

[Cog]

Time for a small crisis.

[SeaGypsy]

Peak oil means a never ending cycle of crisis. Until the big one, then it all becomes very personal.

[SeaGypsy]

Can I be beaten by a banned poster? Even if he has reincarnated and won't admit so? Oh well, it's still early days...
Anyone want to know how I do it?

Do tell.

Excuse my curt response 'Intuition'; though that is largely it. I was in a hurry, been way too busy the last few weeks, studying is much harder work than working (for me anyway).

What I really do, is listen to my Guru. Pops.

I spend very little time thinking about my guess until the few minutes before I make it. I don't really read anything about oil or economics that's not on this site. I find this place the best source of information because of it's anti-bias. A lot of what I find on here is as crap as anywhere else, but a lot of it is as good as everywhere else put together. Others do the legwork, I put it through my bushman's b/s filter and make an educated guess. It may help that I am on the other side of the world from most of the action, in a very safe, fairly stable country.

I didn't enter the first year, because I was still grasping the fundamental principles involved, which would not have happened without Pops and a few others around here.
I'm not sure why my bets always kick his but, sometimes that is the nature of the teacher/ student relationship.

[SeaGypsy]

Wants to get back up asap, breaking $90 again this week; don't think the market has closed yet? Near midnight in Oz Friday.

My high isn't looking too good this year, doubtful anything nice enough to bring forward a solid spike the next 5 months; likely my close will be good (as will many others). Don't think I'm going to keep my overall error much under $10 though, not bad, but several dollars off my last 2 years.

The pattern is looking interesting though.