Reports of US Economic Demise Are Greatly Exaggerated

[Repent]

I attended a work seminar today, the CEO of the corporation I work for came on the screen and started talking.

Our company has experienced an average of 15% growth year over year for the last 40 years, with the exception of the events of last year, we anticipate a recovery is at hand. With hard work and dedication we anticipate a return to 15% growth annually which is our company's growth goal.

I'm stitting there watching this, admiring the fact that:

A) This is an impressive track record.

B) This is an ambitious goal.

C) The chance of this actually occuring is about infinity to 1 against, and that the CEO must be from a different planet or lives in an alternate reality compared to the one I live in.

[eXpat]

C) The chance of this actually occuring is about infinity to 1 against, and that the CEO must be from a different planet or lives in an alternate reality compared to the one I live in.

That´s usually the case with CEO´s

[OilFinder2]

I believe this would be appropriate for this thread.

The Coming Tech-led Boom

In January 1912, the United States emerged from a two-year recession. Nineteen more followed—along with a century of phenomenal economic growth. Americans in real terms are 700% wealthier today.

In hindsight it seems obvious that emerging technologies circa 1912—electrification, telephony, the dawn of the automobile age, the invention of stainless steel and the radio amplifier—would foster such growth. Yet even knowledgeable contemporary observers failed to grasp their transformational power.

In January 2012, we sit again on the cusp of three grand technological transformations with the potential to rival that of the past century. All find their epicenters in America: big data, smart manufacturing and the wireless revolution.

Information technology has entered a big-data era. Processing power and data storage are virtually free. A hand-held device, the iPhone, has computing power that shames the 1970s-era IBM mainframe. The Internet is evolving into the "cloud"—a network of thousands of data centers any one of which makes a 1990 supercomputer look antediluvian. From social media to medical revolutions anchored in metadata analyses, wherein astronomical feats of data crunching enable heretofore unimaginable services and businesses, we are on the cusp of unimaginable new markets.

[...]

[AgentR11]

I'd be more optimistic if those fields and advancements required more warm bodies at the console.

[Loki]

Uh yeah, those "advances" are based primarily on doing more with fewer people.

[Lore]

we are on the cusp of unimaginable new markets.

What's unimaginable is how many resources in energy and materials it will still take to attempt to make the imagined.

[ralfy]

Doing more at the same or lower pay, those no longer receiving benefits not seen as unemployed, not looking at broad unemployment, debt levels the same, looking at only seasonal rises, not looking at previous levels, new deals to be made with banks, a rigged stock market, large amounts of unregulated derivatives, more crisis in Europe and in China, oil production barely rising.

[eXpat]

50%
What does it mean when half of Americans live in a household that gets government assistance?

Nearly half of Americans live in a household that receives government assistance.

This stunning finding comes from a new report from a George Mason University-based research center.

More than one-in-three Americans lived in a household getting Medicaid, food stamps or other means-based government assistance in 2010.

When you add in those getting Social Security, Medicare and unemployment benefits, it represents almost half of the country.

More than 148,000,000 Americans.

The federal government sent a record total of $2 trillion to individuals in 2010. The stunning part is that's up 75% from a decade ago.

There's another new study from the conservative think tank the Heritage Foundation that shows the public's dependence on the federal government shot up 23% in just two-years under President Obama.

This comes at a time when fewer Americans - less than half of us - pay income taxes.

http://caffertyfile.blogs.cnn.com/2012/02/08/what-does-it-mean-when-half-of-americans-live-in-a-household-that-gets-government-assistance/

[Armageddon]

Shhhh, don't tell that to Oily, we are in the middle of a huge economic boom. Party like it's 1999.

[Plantagenet]

50%
What does it mean when half of Americans live in a household that gets government assistance?...

Don't worry be happy ---- have some food stamps!

[eXpat]

Shhhh, don't tell that to Oily, we are in the middle of a huge economic boom. Party like it's 1999.

I´m not sure if Oily can hear from there

[Pops]

In January 1912, the United States emerged from a two-year recession. Nineteen more followed—along with a century of phenomenal economic growth. Americans in real terms are 700% wealthier today.

In 1912 there were fewer than one hundred million people in the US and we used about a million barrels of oil a day. Today we are 300 million and we burn about 18 million barrels a day, a 600% increase per person. Of course not counting nat. gas, nukes, coal

Interesting how our energy consumption seems so similar to our "phenomenal economic growth", coincidence I'm sure.

[OilFinder2]

Here's one of the most Corny articles I've read in a while.

In fact, it's so Corny, even I don't agree with all of it! Among other things, I think he's over-estimating the value of commodity exports in an economy the size of the US. But it's nice reading anyway.

Dollar strength beyond the balance sheet

From page 2, the good part.

The coming massive U.S. growth

As I have discussed repeatedly in my Energy Technolution pieces, the United States is rapidly becoming energy self-sufficient. The combination of new and improved technologies in oil drilling, natural gas extraction, nuclear power, solar conversion, energy efficiency, combustion engines, hybrid cars, fuel cells, etc., have put the United States on an unstoppable path to being free of importing oil for consumption.

The only question left is how quickly the United States becomes energy independent. If current trends are not interrupted by ideological dogma from either side, the right thwarting smart alternative energy development or the left preventing reasonable oil and natural gas drilling, it appears that America's net energy independence day could occur by decade end. When it does occur, the positive economic impact will be gigantic. The falling household debt to GDP, while largely tied to deleveraging, can be seen as a preview of things to come.

Coinciding with America's impending energy independence is the gradually ramping up of the production of metals, minerals and food for export from America. On its own, the United States position as an agricultural exporter should generate net trade surpluses exceeding $100 billion per year by around the turn of the decade.

Already in 2011, net agricultural exports were over $42 billion. With modest exports of natural gas and distillates, continued export of coal and the addition of more exports of iron ore, molybdenum and other metals, it is not unreasonable to see net trade surpluses of commodities and food into the several hundreds of billions of dollars annually by the 2020s as global demand increases.

Add to those commodity and agriculture exports the advantage in high-end manufacturing the United States is reasserting, technology development via America's robust R&D and its leading edge medicine, and you should be able to see what I see: the United States will soon have the ability to overcome its demographically driven financial challenges.

So long as Americans do not allow hoarding of wealth by the few through ideologically driven policy or sloth by those who would choose not to contribute through honorable labor, the United States, and its currency, are in very good condition over time.

[...]

[ralfy]

Excellent points by FilthyBeast and others in the comments section. Also, the key word is "flexibility," especially given the numbers presented the past four years signalling "recovery".

[radon]

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/ND06Cb01.html

A new study that carefully examined China's prices and consumption patterns concluded that it is far wealthier than the widely used data indicate. According to this study, China's economy may already be as much as 20% larger than the US economy.

[OilFinder2]

Let's see, new home construction, which is the backbone of the US economy and creates millions of jobs directly and indirectly, went from 2.5 million homes per month to 400,000 per month. Wake me up when it's atleast 750.000. (hint, never again)

>>> "Never again" has arrived <<<

[OilFinder2]

EXPLOSION OF GREATNESS!!!!



EXPLOSION OF GREATNESS COMING TO A U.S.A. NEAR U

David Tepper, the hedge-fund manager who runs the $15 billion Appaloosa Management LP, said he’s bullish on U.S. stocks as the economy is set to grow by as much as 3 percent this year.

“This country is on the verge of an explosion of greatness,” Tepper said today in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Market Makers.” “The key is to be long equities this year.”

Tepper said investors should own stocks because they’re historically inexpensive, U.S. companies have little debt, interest rates are low, credit is fully valued and the major risks to the global economy, such as a debt crisis in Europe, have diminished. Short Hills, New Jersey-based Appaloosa, which celebrates its 20th anniversary this year, returned 30 percent in 2012, he said.

[...]

Explosion!!!!

[Cloud9]

Last time he said this wasn't he talking his book and taking money out of the market while he was pushing others in?

[pstarr]

Last time he said this wasn't he talking his book and taking money out of the market while he was pushing others in?

Is that right? How does it work? Oily is always here promoting the next 'big thing' (whether it is tight shale oil in Ubuckestan or housing development in Slab City, Salton Sea). So you see him playing us? Oh My God!! I am so humiliated! I thought I was getting rich

No really. Is this a investment stategy? How does it work?

[Loki]

A hedge fund manager. Now there's a trustworthy voice.

But maybe Mr. Hedge Fund Manager is right, maybe his innovative financial instruments will result in an explosion of great rewards for him and his ilk.

Meanwhile, Main Street America continues to circle the drain. Rich get richer, poor get poorer, and all that.