Anybody following what's going on? Turkey and Syria have tanks facing off across their borders, while at the same time supporting each others rebels.
Iran is looking like it's about to close the Straits of Hormuz over the EU sanctions.
Saudi Arabia has already reopened it's single pipeline to it's Red Sea port, which could only handle a very small percentage of it's exports.
Oman is preping it's southernmost port which was damaged by a Hurricane a few years ago.
US has sent more assets and minesweepers, but if there are mines, insurance on the tankers immediately becomes prohibitive, stopping all shipments.
There are so many reassurances going on by governments it's almost certain to happen. And they know it. It's like they are betting on a pair of twos and hoping nobody calls. Iran is already deciding how much to raise.
This is exactly how all those WWIII movies from the 1980's begin.
This gets hot they won't just stop shipments. they will take out the major refineries, and production. How long to replace Abqaiq, or Ras Tanura?
We are talking what if they take out the infrastructure? 50% reduction for years? More?
The Fascist accepts life and loves it, knowing nothing of and despising suicide; he rather conceives of life as duty and struggle and conquest, life, which should be high and full, lived for oneself, but not, above all, for others.”
—Benito Mussolini, The Doctrine of Fascism, 1933