Collapse Now and Avoid the Rush: Archdruid

[Pops]

There’s a fair amount of subtlety to the strategy defined by those words. As our society stumbles down the ragged curve of its decline, more and more people are going to lose the ability to maintain what counts as a normal lifestyle—or, rather, what counted as a normal lifestyle in the recent past, and is no longer quite so normal today as it once was. Each new round of crisis will push more people further down the slope; minor and localized crises will affect a relatively smaller number of people, while major crises affecting whole nations will affect a much larger number. As each crisis hits, though, there will be a rush of people toward whatever seems to offer a way out, and as each crisis recedes, there will be another rush of people toward whatever seems to offer a way back to what used to be normal. The vast majority of people who join either rush will fail. Remember the tens of thousands of people who applied for a handful of burger-flipping jobs during the recent housing crash, because that was the only job opening they could find? That’s the sort of thing I mean.

http://www.thearchdruidreport.blogspot. ... -rush.html

100% of U.S. Jobs Added Since 2010 Have Been Self-Employment, Contractor, or Other Jobs Without Unemployment Insurance Benefits

Since 2009... the economy added 2.36 million jobs according to the BLS. Of those 2.36 million jobs, 5.91 million (250%) were self-employment or jobs otherwise not covered by unemployment insurance benefits.

I don't know how much or whether those two quotes correlate but they sure seem related to me. I guess if one believes nothing changes unless for the better, they could put a positive spin on just about anything, that last factoid included. I have been freelance since 1989 in an ongoing attempt to be more independent so I'm not saying self-employment is a bad thing necessarily, except as the druid writes, for people hoping to recreate normal. Self-employment is definitely not 8 & Out and of course not all those 6 million are "entrepreneurs" – many are just temps and part-timers who don't get bennies like "Owner" on their inkjet business cards.

So, anyone else planning on preemptive collapse?

[ritter]

So, anyone else planning on preemptive collapse?

No. Spouse is not willing and I kind of like our life as it is. I really like hot water and indoor pluming!

I plan to hold the tiger by the tail until it becomes untenable. Then bail to Plan B.

[dsula]

So, anyone else planning on preemptive collapse?

Why would anybody? The ones that did in 2008 looked like fools. Things will continue for quite some time.

[Pops]

So, anyone else planning on preemptive collapse?

Why would anybody? The ones that did in 2008 looked like fools. Things will continue for quite some time.

I sometimes wonder if posting facts even matters. Are you saying the doubling in the percentage worker who are part-timer but want full time work is BAU?

Or are you simply trolling?

We’d hope that as the economy starts to pick up the pieces and dust itself off, it would do so by creating stable jobs that pay decently, putting workers on solid footing as we move out of the mess. Yet that’s not what’s going on. The ILO reports, “Since the onset of the global crisis, part-time employment has increased in two-thirds of the advanced countries [in the report], and temporary employment has increased in one-half of the countries.” This comes on the heels of a general increase in this kind of work over the past two decades. What it means is that the jobs our economic recovery is best at producing aren’t full-time—or even permanent. We may be putting people back to work, but it’s in jobs that offer little financial security.

The picture is as bleak in the United States as it is around the globe generally. Part-time employment grew from just under 10 percent in 2007 to just over that figure in 2010. But even worse is the fact that the percentage of the workers in those jobs who would rather be working full-time doubled, from around 7 percent in 2007 to 15 percent in 2010. That’s a lot of people who aren’t working as many hours as they need to. The recovery period has also steadily created more temporary jobs than stable, lasting ones. The Richmond Fed reports that these jobs accounted for over a quarter of all new private sector jobs created here in 2010—even though they were only about 7 percent of the jobs created after the 2001 recession. Although these jobs dropped severely during the crisis, they’ve now climbed higher than they were in 2006.

Beyond giving workers little stability in their lives, temporary jobs pay poorly compared to their full-time counterparts. The ILO’s analysis of nine countries showed that temporary workers are paid about 40 percent less than permanent workers, and that holds true even when controlling for individual characteristics. It may be unsurprising, then, that the report finds that around the world, “the majority of new jobs are remunerated at a rate below average wages.” Are workers who are lucky enough to be re-employed even making what they need to get by?

The United States in particular has intimate knowledge of this phenomenon: we lead developed nations in the share of low-wage workers. Analysis by the CEPR shows that while more than 10 percent of the workforce in most rich OECD countries is in low-wage jobs—defined as making less than two-thirds of the national median hourly wage—about one-fourth of US workers find themselves in that category. That percentage has been on the rise for at least three decades, and the trend is on track to worsen given the kinds of jobs the economy is producing.

http://www.thenation.com/blog/167662/re ... -bad-jobs#

[Don35]

So, anyone else planning on preemptive collapse?

I'm working on it. I'd guess many of us are. Slowly, piece by piece I am changing how I live. Trying to depend on myself a bit more and industrial society a bit less. Wood cook stove, orchard, garden, goats, etc. No one can ever be totally self sufficient, but I can 'power down' some.

[AgentR11]

So, anyone else planning on preemptive collapse?

Not so much collapse, but gently easing off the throttle that is directly dependent on oil, yes. Things like small house size, no car notes, easily walkable/bike-able town. I've made my bets based on what I think will hang around for my lifetime, what income and asset sources are available to me, and how best to hand off those assets to my child in a way that maximizes her take, and minimizes the take of uncle sam and the leach medical establishment.

As long as property taxes are collected, getting ahead of the curve on collapse could be just as disastrous and being behind it. It seems to me one has to dynamically ride the crest all the way to the shore of collapse, an eye on the horizon, but most effort focused on very near term rocks and rips.

[dsula]

It's such a rediculous idea that you can 'prepare' for what is coming. Live within your means, that's about all you can do. The wave that's coming will either be fast and take down everything, including the 'bunker-doomers', or it will be slow (what I believe) and forces you to adapt. The winners are going to be the ones that ad-hoc can adapt, change, move, see oportunity, execute and move on.
Go and live in the poor towns of Mexico and see if you can handle it. If you can you're ok. If not you better learn quickly. Or maybe it's simply better to enjoy life for as long as you can? What's better, a short but good and exciting life, or a long and painful one?

[Pops]

It seems to me one has to dynamically ride the crest all the way to the shore of collapse, an eye on the horizon, but most effort focused on very near term rocks and rips.

Ah yes, Surfing the Apocalypse

VMs home page I think

[Lore]

Pops wrote:
So, anyone else planning on preemptive collapse?

I'm not sure how this whole idea of "preemptive collapse" differs much from the "back to the land movement" of the 70s? Other then we are just that much closer now to a social economic upheaval.

[Pops]

The 'Landers were middle class kids on sabbatical from college thinking they were going to get in touch with Gaia. They got tired of that and went back to school, they run Wall Street now.
:^)




I'll just repeat what I've said a hundred times before by quoting what JMG said in the piece:

For the vast majority of people, it probably needs to be said, collapsing now does not mean buying a survival homestead somewhere off in the country.

If a person wants to run off to the hills then more power to 'em, I'd wanted to do it since I can remember, it was a goal worked toward for a long time. But that isn't the point.

The way to avoid the rush is simple enough: figure out how you will be able to live after the next wave of crisis hits, and to the extent that you can, start living that way now.

Make a plan...
> mine:
Don't Buy
Don't Borrow
Don't Specialize
Don't Go Hungry
Don't be Dependent
...Work it.

I guess there are people not susceptible to seeing their job get offshored – or simply OFFed or their home equity evaporate along with their life savings and guaranteed pension and are completely confident they will have a means of support well into the post-industrial future.

I think they used to be called 99ers but we don't here that much anymore for some reason...

[Lore]

The 'Landers were middle class kids on sabbatical from college thinking they were going to get in touch with Gaia. They got tired of that and went back to school, they run Wall Street now.
:^)

Got that right, been there, done that and back for more myself. Which is to say, not everyone has abandoned their original ideals. However, more to your scenario, those also ascribing to preemptive collapse will in all likelihood eventually bow out to the lure of societies BAU standards which ended up ditching many of the landers dreams.

It's unfortunate that the reality is many find it hard if not impossible to stick to a plan. They understand that the grasshopper shouldn't be playing, but they envy him just the same.

[Fishman]

"Go and live in the poor towns of Mexico and see if you can handle it. If you can you're ok"
Been there, done that. No hot water, no cold water. Tortilla, beans and rice. Survivable, but it sucks.

[kublikhan]

I have no quarrel, again, with people who are actually doing something concrete to get some alternative energy technology into use—for example, the people whose enthusiasm for the Bussard fusion reactor leads them to build a prototype in their basement, or to help fund one of the half dozen or so experimenters who have already done this—but that’s rarely what this approach entails; rather, it seems to consist mostly of posting long screeds on the internet insisting that thorium reactors, or algal biodiesel, or what have you, will solve all our energy problems.

As Zen masters like to say, talk does not cook the rice, and blog posts do not build reactors

Yes I agree. Clearly we should all instead be writing blog posts about the collapse of society. Such actions are clearly cooking the rice and building the reactors. I have nothing but scorn for those blogging about new energy developments however. Screw those idiots.

[glaucus]

Pops wrote:

So, anyone else planning on preemptive collapse?

Our family has been slowly 'collapsing' down over the past 5 years. A few things we've done in no particular order:
-stopped eating out except for special occasions
-paid off about two-thirds of total debt (damn student loans)
-never buy new when used will do
-never throw anything away that can be repurposed or resold
-using coupons diligently
-biking to work - wind, rain, or snow (live in bikable city with easy commute)
-don't buy food that you can by the raw ingredients for and make yourself
-getting into shape and taking care of my health (regular checkups and dentist visits)
-maintain a wide network of friends all over the place and try to keep close ties with family
-less frequent, more modest vacations
-stay up on current topics (thx peakoil.com!)
-no more cable
-delaying gratification by buying with cash
-diversifying savings with metals
-built up decent emergency cash on hand
-put together both a 'go bag' and 'stay bag'
-stopped contributing to retirement savings

Lately I've been focusing on calculating the amount I live on per day (total monthly expenses / 30) and trying to reduce it month by month. This is a useful exercise too, because it's a frequent reminder that about 1.5 billion people on Earth live on $1.25 per day.

I wish I could practice growing food, but our setup just doesn't allow for that. I heard a podcast from a guy who has a really good strategy for 'voluntary collapse'. What he does is put most of his time into doing things that will pay off in the future no matter if things fall apart or continue under BAU like getting in shape, getting out of debt, good friend network, living within means, etc. Simple, but good stuff.

[furrybill]

Pops wrote:

So, anyone else planning on preemptive collapse?

...I heard a podcast from a guy who has a really good strategy for 'voluntary collapse'. What he does is put most of his time into doing things that will pay off in the future no matter if things fall apart or continue under BAU like getting in shape, getting out of debt, good friend network, living within means, etc. Simple, but good stuff.

Bingo. If I cut down on my oil and power usage and invest that in an electric car and solar panels it pays off no matter which way the near future goes. Learning how to grow food and can it may not save me any money but it's a great hobby and means that I'm eating healthier. The list goes on...

And of course if I run out of ideas I can browse the peakoil.com forums.

[dohboi]

Glaucus said: "I heard a podcast from a guy who has a really good strategy for 'voluntary collapse'. "

Sounds interesting. Got a linky?

Furrybill, consider going car free rather than electric. They are expensive and limited.

[KingM]

Glaucus said: "I heard a podcast from a guy who has a really good strategy for 'voluntary collapse'. "

Sounds interesting. Got a linky?

Here's your linky:

[autonomous]

I am not sure if "collapse" is the right word for my way of life which I describe as Pagan-Amish. Pagan is a nature-respecting philosophy and way of life that aligns one's needs and expectations with realities of the natural world. Amish is proof that one can still live in a simple, sustainable and healthy manner with minimal cash.

Sustainability Axiom #1: "The more money you need, the less sustainable you are."

[Pops]

That's interesting. Although my Amish neighbors don't seem all that averse to money or to spending it, what they do have is a set of rules for what they will spend money on.

I kinda do that too but with different criteria of course. No debt, no mortgage, the cheapest basic phone service, no satellite/cable, my 'net access is expensive because I'm out a ways but no faster than I need. My clothes are cheap, furniture is built or rebuilt by us...I do have the best equipped shop in the neighborhood, though.

We don't spend a whole lot of money on chachkas like: cruises, jewelry, electronics, sporting goods, entertainment, restaurants... criminy, you could spend hours just listing things to not spend money on! But that's the thing, getting used to not spending on stuff and still being happy is dang hard!

Don't get me wrong, we have stuff, lots of stuff! But the main reason we have so much stuff is that I can't stand cheap, disposable junk. Back when we were first married I wanted to buy my wife a mixer to use making bread. I bought an upper mid-line mixer, it might have even said it was a "bread mixer" – it burned out on the first double batch. Since then I've tried to buy light commercial or at least upper end consumer models whenever possible. The Kitchenaid mixer that I replaced the plastic "bread Mixer" with is still around, it cost 2 or 3 times as much at a time when I wasn't earning much but it's 35 years old and going strong. Of course the thing is that today you generally have 2 choices, cheap/disposable with lots of bells and whistles or just plain cheap/disposable.

[efarmer]

Adapt and practice various coping strategies now in the luxury of being able to practice rather than implement them. Practice what is IMHO the best one, network with friends, neighbors, and family to pool resources, it is good if for the sake of family, friendship, or survival and is never out of style or of immediate resource sharing on demand.

Electric cars are the kiss of death if based on high technology lithium battery technology.

The biggest counter to the petroleum augmented and amplified age is love for your fellow human
beings and working at it so they know you have it and work it and are that sort of resource.

When things get tough, most folks seek out others whom they know are loving, smart, resourceful,
and supplied in some kind of order based on that according to who and whom involved.

Be a problem solver, a sharer and carer, and have a big steel door to slam shut for the
people who are plain unconscious and pirates.

I ain't Goldilocks, but the notion that personal preparation and material stash might beat
caring and loving people who are close and in contact with some level of trust, is beyond
my ability to cipher. I would rather have the power of a Mother's Love than a Lithium
Ion wonder in an electric vehicle with a $6K battery pack full of microprocessors and
sensor, I would rather have a neighbor who trusts me than 4 trusty guns, and I would
rather have a big load of folks to share provisions with so there is redundancy and variety
instead of having one big hoard of human dog food in cans and freeze dried packets.

Connect Now and Collapse when and if you absolutely have to. No downsides, more peace
of mind, better life, closer connections and highly reduced soy farts from emergency rations.

EF