THE 2012 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

[vtsnowedin]

I now have the lowest low diff. of 0.80 which means I'm in the lead in that third of the contest!!! I love it when a plan comes together. Now all we need is a bit of a crisis somewhere in the world right after the USA's election sand I'll move up the list big time.

[SeaGypsy]

For sure there will be another kick of the can- this time via some kind of ratification/ consolidation contract in Europe; which will buoy sentiment at some point this year/ along with the bumpy low, if prolonged may well lead to another proper spike/ testing Pop's theorems and us racers here's projections. Either way dribbling won't happen for long.

[sparky]

.
Phew , this year is quite a ride , vtsnowedin , like you I pray on my knees for some disaster to strike
the cheap oil ungodly , but unfortunately , no cigar !

The big guy upstairs has other plans for HIS purpose ,
the drop in crude price came just in time to avoid pushing the world into the mother of all depression
in HIS usual laughing way HE used the house of Saud as his tool ,
those deluded heathens were convinced to over supply a feeble market
it make one think that the Iran confrontation is less about frying the elect people
but more about blackmailing the fat sheiks into saving the goys 's bacon.

Germane to the topic , any increase of the crude price over 120 $
would see the stock markets swoon with the vapors , factories from Delaware to Shanghai close
and things getting really really down , the crude demand would then go south for a year
at least with the price going along for a ride .

a fully developed oil field cost very little to operate ,
the big cost are into getting one and producing
so in a decreasing demand , the cost of the barrel marginal to balance the demand /supply
drop quite a lot , even the poor hapless canucks will be stung into selling
their syntcrude at producing cost ,

[vtsnowedin]

I think some crisis that will push up oil prices is likely but I'm not praying for it. I'd just as soon not win this game as both my high and close would be very hard on the economy. The Canadians could ramp down the rate they mine the oil shale and sit on the resource until prices recover to profitable levels.

[sparky]

.
"The Canadians could ramp down the rate they mine the oil shale and sit on the resource until prices recover to profitable levels"

Yes the could ... but they won't ,
the whole point of capitalistic ressource market is to have an overcapacity
it keep price as low as they can be , should some government try to reduce supply ,
then ...presto there is a change of government and production is ramped to drive down price .

We will always have as much capacity as can be instaled , up to being south of rational
that's the eternal struggle between producers and consumers
It is in the consumers interest to minimise their inputs .

of course depletion is the joker in the pack of a rigged game

[seenmostofit]

of course depletion is the joker in the pack of a rigged game

True, but one of the interesting components of tar sands production is that depletion isn't as relevant when you have a very low production rate compared to a monstrous sized resource. Which describes the tar sands to the T. They can produce at the rates they are moving at for decades, or even a century, and that might be a conservative assumption.

[SeaGypsy]

Same with coal in a few places around the world, hundreds of years worth left.

[PeakOiler]

With the latest closing price of $84.03 as reported by the EIA for June 19th, there were no changes at all in the standings.
Yesterday, however, a new low price may have been set. We'll have to wait another week to see. The Dukascopy ticker currently shows that WTI is about $80.

[jdmartin]

Too bad there's not an award for predicting the correct range of prices - I'd be in like Schwinn, with less than a 10 cent difference between my high and low.

I prefer to predict high because I win either way - either I'm way off, and gas is cheap (nice for me personally in real life), or I'm right on the money and have something to comfort my grieving wallet

[PeakOiler]

Thought this was an interesting article:

http://money.cnn.com/2012/06/21/investing/oil_prices/index.htm

Oil prices continue their slide
Oil prices fell Thursday, hitting an eight-month low, as markets continued to react to disappointing economic news across the globe.
<snip>
Signs of a slowdown in manufacturing in China, Europe and the United States delivered the oil market another blow on Thursday.
"Prices have gotten clobbered, and it's being driven by the deteriorating economic data," said Matt Smith, a commodity analyst at Summit Energy Services.
<snip>
The oil markets also reacted to jobless claims, which analysts said showed little improvement. Prices were also still coming down from disappointment over the Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady.
Oil prices seen bottoming out soon: It's not unusual for oil prices to drop in the summer, according to Dan Dicker, an oil trader and author of "Oil's Endless Bid: Taming the Unreliable Price of Oil to Secure Our Economy."
<snip>
"The steady decline in oil prices isn't unusual for this time of year. June is a weak month for oil prices," he said. "Now, you're adding that to negative growth, and that's having an impact."
But despite the forces working against the market, analysts don't expect oil prices to go much lower.
<snip>
"We're going to stay in the 70s, whether that's $71 or $79," said Kloza. "Unless we have a Lehman-like event that throws a wrench in it, we'll bottom out in the next 10 to 15 business days."

Lehman-like wrench = black swan event...

Hope the low does bottom out in the seventies, like at $76.73.

[Midessa]

Ding! Ding!

The captain has turned on the fasten seatbelts sign. Please put your seat backs and tray tables in the full upright positions as we are currently experiencing heavy turbulence. Everyone should take crash positions and prepare for a hard landing.

Sometime after July 4th, watch for dangerously falling prices.

[SeaGypsy]

Wrong. There is a bottom on what the majors will sell for and it is not 'dangerously lower' than $80. The spigots will start shutting about when your prediction kicks in, that's already slated. I would be extremely surprised to see any significant dip below $75, certainly not sustained for any length of time. There will be a spike asap. The suppliers need return to their new $100+ normal asap. The rest of the economy will just have to live with that. The speculators will ensure that there isn't a steady drift. A new deal in Europe, however temporary, will buoy confidence enough to generate another wave....

[PeakOiler]

With a new low reported this week, there has been some shifting in the standings:



I didn't expect to go from #20 to #11 in just one week! That was a surprise!

[SeaGypsy]

I didn't expect to be out of Cog & Kub's dust just yet either! Now all we need is some more EU money printing contract resolution, a bit of a new war on the side perhaps? This week would be ideal, thanks PTB!

[Midessa]

Wrong. There is a bottom on what the majors will sell for and it is not 'dangerously lower' than $80. The spigots will start shutting about when your prediction kicks in, that's already slated. I would be extremely surprised to see any significant dip below $75, certainly not sustained for any length of time. There will be a spike asap. The suppliers need return to their new $100+ normal asap. The rest of the economy will just have to live with that. The speculators will ensure that there isn't a steady drift. A new deal in Europe, however temporary, will buoy confidence enough to generate another wave....

Well SeaGypsy, you have won the last two years so I have every reason to believe that you are right. And I hope that you are. I don't want to see lower oil prices. My prediction is based on pessimism mostly. Anyway, there is no love and respect left for the rest of us because you already won it all.

[seenmostofit]

The force appears to be SSTTRROONNGGGGGGG with Obiwan!

Obiwan...speak!! Do you think the closing price can really stick around the $85 range until the end of the year? Plenty of time for your near perfect other guesses to be destroyed of course, but the race is half run, and you have 2/3's of the field covered pretty well.

[SeaGypsy]

So it looks like we have our low? Could be a black swan still, but the accord in Europe (as predicted) has triggered a bounce. This puts me as leader for the low, should it last, with an error of 60 cents. Not bad, now up we go again....

Buy orders will be flooding through to brokers this week.
Edit: I am quite sure we will see a new high for the year. the earlier one was based on anemia. The next will be based on unwarranted euphoria over Europe (the band aid nature of the fix), the Saudis turning down their taps over the next few weeks and the pending of more NATO action in the ME.

[SeaGypsy]

Yep, it's a record breaking bounce according to tonight (Mon Oz time) 10% in 3 business days. Obiwan & Pablo will still cloud my vision (pun unintended) , for the next week or 2 at least. BTW Peakoiler, what is our official low last week?

[PeakOiler]

Yep, it's a record breaking bounce according to tonight (Mon Oz time) 10% in 3 business days. Obiwan & Pablo will still cloud my vision (pun unintended) , for the next week or 2 at least. BTW Peakoiler, what is our official low last week?

I take it you can't see the latest scorecard too? The last official low was $78.20. I hope PO.com isn't going to text-only messages. I don't even see the "smilies" icons next to the Post Reply screen anymore...

[SeaGypsy]

Smileys are on 'post reply' not 'quick reply
Sorry my body clock is out of whack.

Well now we are all in for some fun.... YeeeeeeHahhhhh!