Here Comes The Double Dip Pt. 4 (merged) Archived

[Serial_Worrier]

According to Saint Krugman, all we need is trillions in stimulus and everything will be just fine.

[Cog]

According to Saint Krugman, all we need is trillions in stimulus and everything will be just fine.

Yep to a Keynesian, you can never print enough money.

[pstarr]

I hate to combine two different threads here, but i can't help but wonder why it's so damned important to both the Dems and Repubs that THEY ALONE should be in the driver's seat when the whole thing goes down! In my book, let the other guy take the fall! I wouldn't want to be the one left holding the bag, responsible for the Disintegrating Republic.

Yup. It's all partisan BS to folks who don't have the imagination or means (as in $) to do anything about their predicament. This site has definitely gone downhill. No one talks about peak oil anymore because they are AFRAID TO TALK ABOUT PEAK OIL.

Not surprising given that most folks are all stuck in a retail-consumer shopping ghetto . with no chance of escape. I wouldn't want to face the truth either.

[Daniel_Plainview]

22,257,647 Households on Food-Stamps, Breaking All-time Record; 46.4 Million People in Poverty

In March a total of 46,405,204 persons were at or below poverty level and thus eligible for foodstamps, a 79K increase in the month. ... At 22,257,647, the number of US households receiving the "SNAP treatment" rose to an all time high...

[Daniel_Plainview]

America's Transition To A Part-Time Worker Society Accelerates As Part-Time Jobs Hit Record

Back in December 2010 Zero Hedge was the first to point out what is easily the most troubling characteristic within America's evaporating labor force: its gradual transition to a part-time worker society. We elaborated on this back in February when we noted that the quality assessment of US jobs indicates that this most disturbing trend is accelerating. Finally, yesterday, the BLS' latest jobs report confirmed that our concerns have been valid all along: as of May, part-time jobs just as disclosed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics hit an all time high, over 28 million!



These are people who traditionally have zero job benefits, including healthcare and retirement, and which according to the BLS "work less than 35 hours per week." In other words, as little as one hour per week of "work" is enough to classify one a part-time worker. More disturbing: the increase in part-time jobs in May compared to April: 618,000, or the fifth highest on record. It gets better: when added with the 508,000 increase in part-time jobs in April, this is the largest two month increase in part time-jobs in history. Which means of course that full time jobs in May must have declined: sure enough, at a -266,000 drop in full time jobs, the quality composition of the NFP report was just abysmal and makes any reported "increase" in those employed into a sad farce.

This is really sad. The "quality" of US jobs has substantially deteriorated, such that most of the new jobs being added are part-time/temp jobs with zero benefits and zero job stability. I guess people are just happy to have any job at all, whether as a part-time burger flipper, or a temporary liposuction operator.

[dissident]

According to Saint Krugman, all we need is trillions in stimulus and everything will be just fine.

Yep to a Keynesian, you can never print enough money.

You're attributing to Keynes something which he never advocated. His idea was tax and build up reserves during boom times, reduce taxes and spend during recessions. No government that I am aware of has ever followed his advice. Printing money is something that various governments contrived all on their own. Pancho Villa's Mexico, Weimar Germany, the USA in the last few years. The US is rather peculiar since it has been in the thrall of monetarists for a long time. Looks like monetarists say one thing and then do another.

[TheAntiDoomer]

CoreLogic: House Price Index increases in April, Up 1.1% Year-over-year

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/ ... eases.html

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased on a year-over-year basis by 1.1 percent in April 2012 compared to April 2011. This was the second consecutive year-over-year increase this year, and the first time two consecutive increases have occurred since June 2010. On a month-over-month basis, home prices, including distressed sales, increased by 2.2 percent in April 2012. This marks the second consecutive month-over-month increase this year.

[dissident]

This is really sad. The "quality" of US jobs has substantially deteriorated, such that most of the new jobs being added are part-time/temp jobs with zero benefits and zero job stability. I guess people are just happy to have any job at all, whether as a part-time burger flipper, or a temporary liposuction operator.

The globalization chickens coming home to roost. American workers have to compete with Chinese workers for the affections of global capital. This means only one thing: American effective wages are going down while those in China will increase by some fraction. This process has not reached bottom and will continue in the stepwise manner that the chart shows.

So you can see who American politicians are loyal to. It ain't the vast majority of the voters.

[TheAntiDoomer]

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index indicates slightly faster expansion in May

Sorry to rain on the doomer parade



http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The NMI registered 53.7 percent in May, 0.2 percentage point higher than the 53.5 percent registered in April. This indicates continued growth this month at a slightly faster rate in the non-manufacturing sector.The majority of the respondents' comments are positive and optimistic about business conditions and the direction of the economy."

[eXpat]

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index indicates slightlyfaster expansion in May

Sorry to rain on the doomer parade



http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The NMI registered 53.7 percent in May, 0.2 percentage point higher than the 53.5 percent registered in April. This indicates continued growth this month at a slightly faster rate in the non-manufacturing sector.The majority of the respondents' comments are positive and optimistic about business conditions and the direction of the economy."

I see that a corny needs less and less sustenance as the time goes by
In some months it could be, "Hey! they got stew at the soup kitchen today!!, everything is fine, life is good!!"

[Lore]

How many straws can you grasp with one hand tied behind your back?

[OilFinder2]

Money. Flowing freely, in billowing founts. So much money, the banks don't know what to do with it all. A crisis of riches so overwhelming it's even surpassed the expectations of the most optimistic Cornucopians.

Prosperity bursting out like a gush of oil from the ground ... because it is from a gush of oil from the ground! It's like ... Saudi Arabia ... in Texas.



Eagle Ford banks challenged as deposits skyrocket

South Texas landowners getting fat checks from oil companies for drilling on their land have been a boon to banks based in the Eagle Ford Shale.

Deposits at most of those banks have surged. The Karnes County National Bank's deposits rocketed 110 percent to almost $168 million from the end of 2009 through the first quarter of this year.

Eleven other institutions registered jumps in deposits that ranged from 46.8 percent to 82.7 percent. By comparison, domestic deposits at U.S. banks increased 14.7 percent during the same period.

But the influx of deposits has left the Eagle Ford-area banks with something of a challenge: how to deploy that money at a time when loan demand isn't nearly as strong.

“It's a problem, but it's a good problem,” said H.B. “Trip” Ruckman III, president and chairman of The Karnes County National Bank in Karnes City. Its deposits rose by $88 million from the end of 2009 to March 31, while its loans rose by $19 million.

“We have had depositors come in with more than a million dollars at a whack,” he added. “So it is a challenge to keep the money invested.”

[...]

The flood of deposits has led to one serious issue for some of these small banks: having enough capital.

Banking regulators require that banks maintain a minimal level of capital. Deposits are listed on a bank's balance sheet as liabilities, so as deposits swell, the institutions' owners might have to put up more of their own money — capital — as a hedge against potential losses to satisfy regulators' requirements.

It's an issue banks will have to grapple with as long as landowners continue to deposit big checks from royalties and leases. The solution is either to turn away customers or to raise more capital, Sheshunoff's Carpenter said. Selling stock or retaining earnings are ways to boost capital.

[...]

[OilFinder2]

And speaking of resource booms ...



Even though Australia's May manufacturing PMI at 42.4 was WORSE than Greece's 43.1, we nonetheless got the news out today ...

... AUSTRALIA'S YEAR-OVER-YEAR GDP SOARED TO 4.3%

The Australian economy started 2012 with a bang, with data released Wednesday revealing that growth in the resource-rich nation far outstripped expectations in the first three months of the year.

Gross domestic product rose 1.3% in the first quarter of 2012, and improved 4.3% on year, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported Wednesday.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast a 0.7% rise for the quarter, and a 3.4% annual gain.

Australian Treasurer Wayne Swan described the growth as “exceptional” in a climate of ongoing global turbulence.

“This outcome reaffirms Australia’s position as one of the strongest economies in the world, with the Australian economy growing faster than every single major advanced economy in the March quarter,” he said in a statement.

[...]

[Daniel_Plainview]

Eurozone PMI hits near-three year low in May

At 46.0 in May, down from 46.7 in April, the Markit Eurozone PMI® Composite Output Index signalled the steepest rate of decline in manufacturing and services output in the single currency area since June 2009. The headline index came in slightly above its flash estimate of 45.9, but remained below the neutral 50.0 mark for the fourth month running.

May services PMI data indicates that the sector has fallen into a steepening downturn, in tandem with the stronger decline in the goods-producing sector signalled by Markit’s manufacturing data last week. There were also further signs of weakness spreading from the non-core to core nations, with even Germany slipping back into contraction.

German output fell for the first time since last November and, although only modest, the rate of decline was the fastest for almost three years. The downturns in France and Spain accelerated, while Italy saw an easing in its rate of decline but remained firmly mired in a steep downturn.

Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit said: “Based on these numbers, it would not be surprising to see GDP for the region contract by 0.5% in the second quarter, though an even steeper decline could be seen if the June data disappoint. There is some convergence among member countries, but unfortunately only in the sense that all of the largest are now experiencing downturns. While Germany is contracting only marginally, alarmingly steep downturns are evident in Spain, Italy and now also France. Italy seems to be faring the worst, with its PMI consistent with GDP falling by more than 1% in the second quarter. However, declines could also exceed 0.5% in both France and Spain.”

Companies were again blighted by the persistent weakness of demand, leading to further job losses. New business fell at the fastest pace for almost three years, with accelerated falls signalled in Germany, France and Spain, while Italy also posted a further substantial decline. Job losses were reported for the fifth successive month in May. However, the rate of decline eased slightly, mainly due to a slight bounce in German staffing levels. In contrast, France, Italy and Spain all saw employment decline. ...

[Daniel_Plainview]

Global economies have become so sickly and depressed that European oil demand has plummeted to the lowest level in 16 years ... regressing all way back to 1996! This data can't be fudged ... and it clearly shows how depressed the global economies have become.

European Oil Demand Will Plunge 2% to the Lowest Level Since 1996; Oil Tanker Rates Plummet to Lowest Since ’97

Aframaxes, already this year’s worst- performing oil tankers, are poised for the lowest annual rates in at least 15 years as Europe’s economic stagnation curbs demand, the region’s most-accurate shipping analysts said. ... “With the situation in Europe, the picture for Aframaxes is just abysmal,” said Erik Nikolai Stavseth, an Oslo-based analyst at Arctic Securities ASA who anticipates an annual average of $10,000. “VLCCs are taking out Suezmaxes, and Suezmaxes are taking out Aframaxes,” said Stavseth, whose recommendations returned 24 percent in the past year, the second-best performance in the region.

Daily rates for Aframaxes, hauling 690,000 barrels, slumped 32 percent to $14,911 since the start of January, according to London-based Clarkson Plc (CKN), the world’s largest shipbroker. That compares with a 6 percent advance in earnings for VLCCs, which load 2 million barrels, and a 24 percent retreat for Suezmaxes, with about 50 percent of the capacity. VLCCs carry the most oil worldwide, followed by Aframaxes, Clarkson data show.

The slide in Aframax rates is being mirrored in other classes of shipping. Capesize vessels hauling iron ore and coal are earning $4,812 a day, 98 percent less than their May 2008 peak, according to the London-based Baltic Exchange, which publishes daily rates along more than 50 maritime routes. Panamaxes, with about 50 percent of the capacity, are making $7,138, 92 percent less than the all-time high set in 2008.

The supply of Aframaxes will expand 6 percent this year as demand contracts by the same amount, the worst ratio of any oil- tanker market tracked by Clarkson. The fleet grew 14 percent since 2008, a year in which rates peaked at $87,775, according to data from IHS Inc. (IHS), a research group based in Englewood, Colorado. Outstanding orders at ship yards are equal to 7 percent of existing capacity, the data show.

European oil demand will decline 2% to 14.7 million barrels a day this year, the lowest since at least 1996, the Paris-based International Energy Agency estimates. The region’s refineries are shutting at the fastest pace in three decades as economies stagnate or contract and competition from U.S. rivals using cheaper grades of crude intensifies. Aframaxes get 48 percent of their cargoes from Europe, Clarkson estimates.

To repeat:

European oil demand will decline 2%, the lowest since at least 1996, and Europe's refineries are shutting at the fastest pace in three decades as economies stagnate or contract and competition from U.S. rivals using cheaper grades of crude intensifies.

Demand for oil hasn't been this low since 1996!



Not only have economies NOT recovered from the 2008 meltdown ... but now, thanks to massive debt, the economies are WORSE off than in 2008 ... and, indeed, have regressed ALL THE WAY BACK TO 1996!

[dolanbaker]

Back to 1996! I suspect that some of that is due to improvements in fuel economy, we have made great strides to reduce excessive fuel consumption in Europe.

But the number of cars on the roads is reducing as well, in Ireland for example car saled peaked in 2006 and is down by something like 30% since then.

[Lore]

in Ireland for example car saled peaked in 2006 and is down by something like 30% since then.

That would be great for the US economy!

[joewp]

Global economies have become so sickly and depressed that European oil demand has plummeted to the lowest level in 16 years ... regressing all way back to 1996! This data can't be fudged ... and it clearly shows how depressed the global economies have become.

Yep, and oil prices are reflecting the decrease in demand, down to $84/$100 (WTI/Brent) and as the price comes down, Oily will find some green shoots to crow about, until oil demand comes back, raising the prices again until hitting the wall and destroying the "recovery", "sooner than expected".

Volatility: it's the the new economic reality.

[Daniel_Plainview]

China Cuts Interest Rates for First Time Since 2008

China cut interest rates for the first time since 2008, stepping up efforts to combat a deepening economic slowdown as Europe’s worsening debt crisis threatens global growth. ... The announcement, two days before China is due to report inflation, investment and output figures, may signal that the economy is weaker than the government expected. “This will be the beginning of a rate cut cycle and there will be at least one more reduction this year. The data to be released over the weekend must be very weak and inflation must have eased sharply,” said Shen Jianguang, a Hong Kong-based economist with Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd.

... Today’s move signals policy makers are concerned that the cost of borrowing is crimping companies’ spending and holding back expansion in the world’s second-biggest economy. Three bank officials told Bloomberg News last month that the nation’s biggest banks may fall short of loan targets for the first time in at least seven years as demand for credit wanes.

Slowdown Worsening

The PBOC cut banks’ reserve requirements in November for the first time in three years, and again in February and May, to spur lending. China’s manufacturing expanded at the slowest pace in six months in May, a government report showed on June 1, adding to signs the nation’s slowdown is worsening. A separate purchasing managers’ index from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics pointed to a seventh straight contraction, the longest stretch since the global financial crisis. ...

[Daniel_Plainview]

Back to 1996! I suspect that some of that is due to improvements in fuel economy, we have made great strides to reduce excessive fuel consumption in Europe.

Yes, I wonder what percentage might be due to enhanced fuel economy (maybe 1% or 2%), versus what percentage might be due to an unprecedented collapse of global economic activity catalyzed by the simultaneous convergence of (1) peak oil; (2) collapse of credit bubble; (3) collapse of housing bubble; and (4) collapse of aggregate demand.

But the number of cars on the roads is reducing as well, in Ireland for example car saled peaked in 2006 and is down by something like 30% since then.

Perhaps the primary reason fewer cars have been sold (and fewer people are driving) is that people's net worth has collapsed between 25%-33% amid collapsing asset bubbles and massive job losses.

The bottom line is: expanding economies are ALWAYS accompanied by increasing oil consumption; whilst contracting economies are ALWAYS accompanied by diminishing fuel consumption.

Other things being equal, the fact that fuel consumption has collapsed is strong evidence of a depressionary environment, notwithstanding the massive interventions by hapless govts and clueless, desperate central banks.