Here Comes The Double Dip Pt. 4 (merged) Archived

[Daniel_Plainview]

Deer, Meet Headlights

Today's 2.5% drop in the S&P 500 back below its 200DMA, its largest single-day drop in seven months, and the accompanying flood into safe-havens has left Gold and Treasury Bonds now outperforming Stocks for the year (with the Dow red YTD). S&P 500 e-mini futures volume was it highest of the year as we sit at the edge of the waterfall level from last July/August's plunge. Gold's 4% gain is the biggest day since January 2009.



Treasury yields plunged to new all-time record lows [of 1.5%] with 30Y showing a 2.50% handle and 10Y a 1.43% handle. All the high-beta hope names were crushed with financials down 3.7% - their largest fall in 7 months (with the majors even more). VIX jumped 2.6 vols to close above 26.5% at 7 month highs. What is perhaps most disconcerting is the total lack of bounce into the close now two days-in-a-row - deer, meet headlights.

Gold and 30Y Treasury bond prices are now outperforming the S&P 500 YTD.

[Repent]

We all got used to the bad news; falling stocks, high unemployment, rising gold and silver, bank fraud, ect, ect.

People have gotten on with their lives, its not news anymore, it is the new normal!

[Daniel_Plainview]

Nearly Half Of The New Jobs In America Were Created By One Industry

The economy added a net 69K new jobs in May, according to this morning's Non-Farm Payrolls report. And nearly half can be attributed to one industry: Healthcare. Over 30K new jobs were created in this industry.

What's more, as you can see in the chart below (which measures the monthly change in the industry), there hasn't been a single negative month in this industry all through the recession and recovery.



And really, over the long term, if you just look at the growth of this industry, it really is a thing of beauty.



For some reason, people sometimes say that healthcare jobs don't count or whatnot, but we think that's nonsense. America is aging. This is the industry of the future!

Thanks to the proliferation of health insurance and medicare/medicaid (which have allowed healthcare prices to increase between 8-12%/yr), healthcare has become the greatest bubble of all time. It and the education bubble are the mother of all bubbles ... and all bubbles eventually pop.

[eXpat]

"The End Game: 2012 And 2013 Will Usher In The End"

"The world has no engine of growth with most of the G20 growth approaching stall speed at the same time. The Western World is about to enter its second recession in an ongoing depression..." In addition:

----- We can join the dots from where we are now, to the collapse of the first major bank… With very limited room for government bailouts, we can very easily join the next dots from the first bank closure to the collapse of the whole European banking system, and then to the bankruptcy of the governments themselves.

----- There are almost no brakes in the system to stop this, and almost no one realises the seriousness of the situation.

----- The problem is not Government debt per se. The real problem is that the $70 trillion in G10 debt is the collateral for $700 trillion in derivatives… Yes, that equates to 1200% of Global GDP and it rests on very, very weak foundations

----- From an EU crisis, we only have to join one dot for a UK crisis of equal magnitude.

Good presentation, and it give us some idea of the time, 6 months, more or less.

[eXpat]

WORLD BANK BOSS: We're Headed For "Impending Catastrophe" -- "A Rerun Of Great Panic Of 2008"

The head of the World Bank, Robert Zoellick, is about to step down after a 5-year term.

That means he can say what he really thinks.

Here, via the Daily Mail, is what he really thinks about what's going on in Europe and the global financial markets:

financial markets face a rerun of the Great Panic of 2008.

It's ‘far from clear that eurozone leaders have steeled themselves’ for the looming catastrophe amid fears of a Greek exit from the single currency and meltdown in Spain.

‘Events in Greece could trigger financial fright in Spain, Italy and across the eurozone. The summer of 2012 offers an eerie echo of 2008.... ‘If Greece leaves the eurozone, the contagion is impossible to predict, just as Lehman had unexpected consequences.’

'There will not be time for meetings of finance ministers to discuss the outlook and debate the politics.... 'In panicked markets, investors flee to safe assets, sparking other flames.’

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/world-bank-boss-impending-catastrophe-a-rerun-of-great-panic-of-2008-2012-6#ixzz1wfyRXK00

[Armageddon]

Buckle up bitches

[eXpat]

Buckle up bitches

That´s a very good brief of the situation.
Nobel Laureate Says Globe Headed For Financial “Breakdown” and “Radicalism” (EWG, FXE, VGK, EUO, VWO)

Dominique de Kevelioc de Bailleul: The world is in the midst of a complete global economic “breakdown,” according to Nobel Laureate economist Paul Krugman, with the implications of political “radicalism” quickly brewing in Europe and the United States.

“We are living through a time where we face an enormous economic challenge,” Krugman told Russia Today (RT). “We are facing — obviously — the worst challenge in 80 years and we are totally mucking up the response.”

Traders of German Bunds and U.S. Treasuries agree and have sold PIIGS paper for other paper higher up on the food chain.
As a result, rates on Bunds and Treasuries have reached record-low levels Wednesday of 1.59 and 1.23 percent, respectively—levels that Dan Norcini of Jim Sinclair’s JSMineset.com said signals a Lehman-times-10 event around the corner. With Spain’s 10-year note spread higher by 520 basis points more than the yield on 10-year Bunds, a near-record level as well as depositors decidedly motioning into a trotting bank run on Spanish banks, Europe is again on the slippery slope to doom.

Krugman blames policymakers for the impending crash, fearing a replay of Nazi Germany as a result of a radical drop in standards of living on both sides of the Atlantic due to Germany’s (NYSEARCA:EWG) refusal to inflate the euro (NYSEARCA:FXE).

“We’re doing a terrible job. We’re failing to deal with it,” Krugman added. “All of the people, the respectable people, the serious people, have made a total hash of this. That is a recipe for radicalism. It is a recipe for breakdown.”

Forcing nations to swallow austerity contributed greatly to the rise of the Third Reich following severe reparations exacted upon Germany post-WWI—a mistake Krugman doesn’t forthrightly say in the RT interview, but may be inferred by his Jewishness, gleaned through numerous posts on his NYTimes Web blog and attributed to his notorious allegiance to a failed monetary system under intense fire from people of all nations affected by the crisis.

http://etfdailynews.com/2012/06/01/nobel-laureate-says-globe-headed-for-financial-breakdown-and-radicalism-ewg-fxe-vgk-euo-vwo/

[Armageddon]

The head of the World Bank yesterday warned that financial markets face a rerun of the Great Panic of 2008.

[Daniel_Plainview]

Rates on Bunds and Treasuries have reached record-low levels Wednesday of 1.59 and 1.23 percent, respectively—levels that ...signal a Lehman-times-10 event around the corner. With Spain’s 10-year note spread higher by 520 basis points more than the yield on 10-year Bunds, a near-record level as well as depositors decidedly motioning into a trotting bank run on Spanish banks, Europe is again on the slippery slope to doom.

Have your popcorn ready!

[Daniel_Plainview]

Looks like Japan is not too happy about the state of the economies in the US, China, Eurozone, etc.
Japan's Stock Mkt Suffers Worst Losing Streak Since 1975, Plunging to Depths Not Seen Since 1983

(Reuters) - Japan's shares fell sharply in early trade on Monday, with the Topix index falling to a more than 28-year low, as disappointing U.S. jobs data added to concerns over a slowing Chinese economy and a deepening euro zone debt crisis.

The broader Topix index lost 2.1 percent to 693.35, a level not seen since late 1983. Last week, it fell for the ninth straight week, marking its longest such run since 1975.

The Nikkei dropped 2.1 percent to 8,267.31 to a six-month low.

The Nikkei has fallen 19.4 percent since hitting a one-year high on March 27 on concerns over a deepening euro zone debt crisis and slowing global growth. If the benchmark were to drop to around 8,200, it would technically enter bear market territory.

"The investment sentiment is quite weak, so there's a possibility of a further sell-off. The Nikkei can go down more, that's a possibility," said Hisao Matsuura, equity strategist at Nomura.

"From a valuation view point, it is attractive, and investors almost seem to agree, but they don't want to buy now."

U.S. job growth braked sharply for a third straight month in May and the unemployment rate rose for the first time in nearly a year, raising the chance of further monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve to support the sputtering recovery.

[Timo]

I know there's no way to predict the answer to this question, but what exactly could be/will be the event horizon for the collosal breakdown, or point of no return?

[Armageddon]

I know there's no way to predict the answer to this question, but what exactly could be/will be the event horizon for the collosal breakdown, or point of no return?

We are entering uncharted waters. IMO, one world government, one world currency and one one world religion is coming.

[Armageddon]

Goldman Cuts Q2 GDP Forecast To 2.0% Following Miserable Factory Orders

[Lore]

I know there's no way to predict the answer to this question, but what exactly could be/will be the event horizon for the collosal breakdown, or point of no return?

We are entering uncharted waters. IMO, one world government, one world currency and one one world religion is coming.

IMO, just the opposite. Fractured fiefdoms of economic stagnation controlled by a myriad of religious and political fundamentalists.

[eXpat]

I know there's no way to predict the answer to this question, but what exactly could be/will be the event horizon for the collosal breakdown, or point of no return?

Dangerous as it is to put a time-frame, this article http://www.zerohedge.com/news/big-reset-2012-and-2013-will-usher-end-scariest-presentation-ever (published above) says to expect fireworks by end 2012, beginning 2013. Sounds about right to me.

[pstarr]

I know there's no way to predict the answer to this question, but what exactly could be/will be the event horizon for the collosal breakdown, or point of no return?

We are entering uncharted waters. IMO, one world government, one world currency and one one world religion is coming.

IMO, just the opposite. Fractured fiefdoms of economic stagnation controlled by a myriad of religious and political fundamentalists.

I more inclined to go with the fractured fiefdom model of decline, ala "Road Warrior" I always found the "1984"/"Hunger Games" central-control-model just kind of paranoid. It takes too much effort/money/energy to control entire populations for long. There are easier ways. Check out the Republican Party/Fox news for tips and hints.

[Lore]

Rome tried it. It didn't work. Welcome to the Dark Ages, part 2.0.

[pstarr]

Rome tried it. It didn't work. Welcome to the Dark Ages, part 2.0.

right on.

[SeaGypsy]

I know there's no way to predict the answer to this question, but what exactly could be/will be the event horizon for the collosal breakdown, or point of no return?

Dangerous as it is to put a time-frame, this article http://www.zerohedge.com/news/big-reset-2012-and-2013-will-usher-end-scariest-presentation-ever (published above) says to expect fireworks by end 2012, beginning 2013. Sounds about right to me.

The problem is not Government debt per se. The real problem is that the $70 trillion in G10 debt is the collateral for $700 trillion in derivatives…
Yes, that equates to 1200% of Global GDP and it rests on very, very weak foundations

Pretty scant on detail. Ok so there is a collapse going on, so everyone is going to stop printing money? We all know that derivatives feed a lot of our expectations of the future, have been unrealistically projected and reality (mainly in the form of expensive oil) is now a swarming mass of white pointers shredding a bloated corpse of a whale. The social contract(s) are going to have to be completely re-written; we can already see the unrest this is beginning to cause. So far since peak we have essentially seen a world in denial of the fundamental constraints provided, with an MSM projection that this is all a numbers game failure. Peakers have known that the vast majority of projected social contract will be forced to void, a central tenet of peak oil theory.

"They" will keep printing money and doing business with 'Somebody'. There is no option. Tough luck if you happen to be depending on a government (or even private) pension. Tough luck if you are a mainstream investor. However, my bet is the 'new system' Paul alludes to in this article, is not fundamentally different from what is on the news most nights/ State powers under threat from various forms of civil uprisings, struggling for legitimacy, pushing crowds off the street with batons and water cannon/ a few smoke grenades and rubber bullets/ some selective arrests: interrogations. More of the same.
More broken social contracts leading to more civil resistance leading to movement towards totalitarian methodology of social control.
More bogus excuses to keep printing whatever amount of currency is required to keep the game going to the satisfaction of the 1%.

As far as collapse goes, it's still early days, very interesting times.

[Timo]

I hate to combine two different threads here, but i can't help but wonder why it's so damned important to both the Dems and Repubs that THEY ALONE should be in the driver's seat when the whole thing goes down! In my book, let the other guy take the fall! I wouldn't want to be the one left holding the bag, responsible for the Disintegrating Republic.