The Drought Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

[dohboi]

And it's not just the US:

http://www.fa-mag.com/fa-news/11065-wheat-fields-parched-by-drought-from-us-to-russia.html

Wheat Fields Parched By Drought From U.S. To Russia

Droughts withering wheat crops from the U.S. to Russia to Australia will probably spur the biggest reduction in global supply estimates since 2003 and drive prices to the highest in almost a year.

Kansas, the top U.S. grower of winter wheat, is poised for its driest May on record, the state's climatologist estimates. Ukraine and Russia, accounting for 11 percent of world output, have endured drought conditions for three months, University College London data show. The U.S. Department of Agriculture may cut its global crop estimate by 1.2 percent next month, the biggest drop in a June report since 2003

So famine is on the way. Are the other three horsemen close behind?

[AgentR11]

People are going to understand why I harp on calorie crop production sooner than any of us would like. That it will happen while the net and broadcast television are alive and well is going to make this next step a social hell. Its easy enough to shrug off human inflicted famines, it is a weapon of war after all; but when nature turns the gun on all of us; then yes, my child is going to eat well, while someone else's dies of starvation related complications, strictly because I could pay and they could not.

Most are not going to like dealing with that truth, especially when the results will be displayed live on 42" video monitors in homes throughout the industrial world.

[dohboi]

Mostly, most of the dying of the poor will not be televised, any more than most of it is now.

But the revolutions, mass migrations, and other geo-political disruptions that these shortages spawn will be harder to ignore. Of course, the MSM will nearly always completely miss most of the most important basic reasons for the disruptions.

How often did you hear about the GW induced failure of the Russian wheat crop mentioned as a triggering cause for the Egyptian revolution? Or, for that reason, how often did you hear about the fact that they had neared or reached the ELM moment of zero net oil exports in the coverage of the Egyptian revolution?

If the MSM missed these glaringly obvious causal phenomena, they are also likely to miss the cause of future disruptions.

The mass starvation in the horn of Africa has pretty much fallen out of the news cycle--it barely caused a blip when it did get some headlines a few months ago.

Instead we are obsessed about what somebody said about what somebody else said about Bain, or Rev. Wright...blah blah blah, or things even more irrelevant.

[M_B_S]

DEADLY DROUGHT IN NORTH_KOREA

Pyongyang starts to feel the heatBy Kosuke Takahashi

TOKYO - North Korea, in a rare admission of vulnerability, late last week announced to the outside world that it is suffering the most severe drought in half a century and that its vast agricultural lands have been damaged.....

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/NE31Dg01.html
************************

Thats a very critifcal situation when the hardcore dictatorship state runs amok.....

M_B_S

[dohboi]

Not good news. My mom was actually born in what is now North Korea. Things have been desperate there for a long time even without a major drought. Many are likely to die from this one.

Meanwhile, there's good news in my own back yard--we're no longer in drought here in central MN.

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

The long, steady rain of the last few days has wiped out even the light yellow coloring from a wide swath across the state. Hoping for more for some plants I put in late.

Beryl seems to have barely made a dent in GA's drought, though. Everywhere else looks pretty much unchanged. How are things in your neck of the woods?

[dohboi]

The new drought monitor map is up.

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/archive.html

Missouri has filled in yellow, so now nearly everywhere west of the Mississippi and south of the northernmost tier of states is in some state of abnormal drying or drought. And of course the deep South continues to sport angry shades of red. I can't imagine that this will bode well either for obtaining good harvests or for avoiding widespread wildfires.

Meanwhile, on the global level:

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/06/07/forget-peak-oil-the-global-water-crisis-will-shake-humanity-to-its-core/

Forget peak oil, the global water crisis will shake humanity to its core

Forget peak oil, the global water crisis will shake humanity to its core

You don’t hear much about the water crisis in the United States. Water is still cheap here and our borders contain a relatively large freshwater supply.

But in some places the crisis is in flames.

1.6 billion people live in regions with absolute water scarcity and by 2025 two-thirds of the world’s population could be living under water stressed conditions.

Late energy analyst Matthew Simmons warned this was scarier than peak oil

[dohboi]

Drought seems to be just about everywhere in the contiguous US. Note that much of MN has escaped drought only by being subject to biblical flooding.

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

How are things looking in your area?

[ritter]

How are things looking in your area?

"Abnormally dry." We are 64% of average rainfall for the year. About a third of the state (California) is moderate drought.

[dohboi]

Sorry to hear that, R.

At least you're not in Korea:

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-06-27/both-koreas-suffering-worst-drought-in-a-century

Both Koreas suffering worst drought in a century

North Korea dispatched soldiers to pour buckets of water on parched fields and South Korean officials scrambled to save a rare mollusk threatened by the heat as the worst dry spell in [over] a century gripped the Korean Peninsula.

Parts of both countries are experiencing the most severe drought since record-keeping began nearly 105 years ago, meteorological officials in Pyongyang and Seoul said Tuesday.

Parts of India are facing drought as well:

http://www.smetimes.in/smetimes/news/indian-economy-news/2012/Jun/28/drought-management-India-poor-experts73630.html

[ritter]

Sorry to hear that, R.

No worries yet. California has experienced much worse water conditions. This place is plumed to squeeze every last drop out to send to LA! Cut them off, and the rest of us have plenty of water!

All kidding aside, things are looking pretty grim across much of the globe right now.

[dohboi]

Bet you hadn't thought about this consequence of drought:

Drought-stricken forages a threat to livestock

http://www.cattlenetwork.com/cattle-news/latest/Drought-stricken-forages-a-threat-to-livestock-160826685.html

Apparently, drought conditions increase levels of nitrates and nitrites to toxic levels, killing cattle hours after they have fed on them.

And, as Joan Savage put it at CP, "it’s not always nitrates & nitrites. In one Texas cattle die off, the grass that they had been eating safely in other years began to produce deadly cyanide. It may be a drought-related response of the grass."
[url]
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-201_162-574 ... le-deaths/ [/url]

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/06/30/509242/open-thread-plus-cartoon-of-the-week-6/#comment-386030

[dohboi]

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/02/us/kansas-town-stuggles-to-deal-with-115-degrees.html

Texas town struggles to deal with 115 degrees

For five days last week, a brutal heat wave here crested at 115 degrees. Crops wilted. Streets emptied. Farmers fainted in the fields. Air-conditioners gave up.
...
The grinding drought that transformed much of the West into a tinderbox has all but choked off the growing season here. Farmers say rainfall totals are five to seven inches below normal — a withering deficit — and many have not plowed under their old crops to plant new rows of wheat, corn and milo.
...
As temperatures soared over the past week, farmers woke at dawn to haul tank after tank of water to their overheated livestock. With the grasses scorched by heat and no rain in sight, many are debating whether to sell their cows quickly, rather than buy expensive feed to sustain them all summer.
...
“We’ve still got two more months of this crap,” he said.

http://nebraskaradionetwork.com/2012/07/02/governor-declares-state-of-emergency-due-to-drought/

Governor declares state of emergency due to drought

[PeakOiler]

The latest Texas Drought Graph I made from the US Drought Monitor data:



Ah, I remember 2007 well. A summer filled with tropical storms and lots of rain. No wonder my oldest pecan tree did so well that year. (> 43 lb of shelled pecans from just one tree!)

Texas' drought is getting worse again since it seems most of the TS's have been further east. Florida and the southeast were needing the rain too!

We'll see what happens later on during the Hurricane season.

I'm still using collected rainwater for all my household needs. I do need to take inventory of all my rainwater tanks soon (probably tomorrow) to calculate how many days of rainwater I have left @ 60 gal/day.

I have begun using some of the utility's water for some irrigation again. YTD I've used 1,700 gallons of the city's water.

I'm still waiting on the crew to come out here and take down the wind-damaged carport that is still impaled upon a mesquite tree after a severe wind storm (or a tornado that didn't touch ground?) about a month ago. The company told me it'll be two more weeks before they can make it out here. I need that rainwater collection surface back again. Then I have to reinstall the rainwater gutters on it and re-plumb the 1,500 gallon tank. I'm afraid that carport will get blown off the tree and cause more damage in the next two weeks.

Picture taken on May 30:

[dohboi]

Bummer about the carport. Can you at least secure it somehow so it doesn't do more damage?

Meanwhile, on the other side of the world--the other side of drought is flooding:

People return home to hundreds of thousands of rotting cattle carcasses as floodwaters recede in India

http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2012/07/people-return-home-to-hundreds-of.html

Flooding described by India's prime minister as the worst in recent times, has left at least 95 people dead [so far] and almost 2 million others homeless in the country's remote Assam state.

The Brahmaputra river overflowed during monsoon rains over the past week, flooding more than 2,000 villages and destroying homes in the northeast of the country, officials said.

And when not enough water is coming from the sky, people who have an aquifer turn to that source of fossil water, but that is a diminishing resource, like all mined resources (we need a forum on Peak Fossil Water!! Are we passed it yet?)

Historic drought causes big drop in Texas portion of Ogallala aquifer

http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2012/07/historic-drought-causes-big-drop-in.html

[dohboi]

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/07/05/511115/july-5-news-severe-drought-hitting-farmers-in-five-states-is-sucking-the-life-out-of-everything/

Severe Drought Hitting Farmers In Five States Is ‘Sucking The Life Out Of Everything’

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/05/us/for-midwest-corn-crop-the-pressure-rises-like-the-heat.html?_r=2

Searing Sun and Drought Shrivel Corn in Midwest

Across a wide stretch of the Midwest, sweltering temperatures and a lack of rain are threatening what had been expected to be the nation’s largest corn crop in generations.

Already, some farmers in Illinois and Missouri have given up on parched and stunted fields, mowing them over. National experts say parts of five corn-growing states, including Indiana, Kentucky and Ohio, are experiencing severe or extreme drought conditions. And in at least nine states, conditions in one-fifth to one-half of cornfields have been deemed poor or very poor, federal authorities reported this week, a notable shift from the high expectations of just a month ago.

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

Not many un-colored places left on that map, now. God doesn't seem to love America much any more.

[PeakOiler]

Bummer about the carport. Can you at least secure it somehow so it doesn't do more damage?

That's a good idea. I thought about that. I could at least get a long rope and try to lasso one of those 2 foot long rebar anchors you can see sticking out of the bottom rail and loop the rope around the tree. That might be good enough as a temporary fix over the next couple of weeks. I've never thrown a lasso before and I live in Texas, lol!
<--Not a cowboy, btw. (A naturalized Texan. Really. Had to go before a federal judge on my 18th B-day and be sworn in as a US citizen. Conceived in San Antonio, born in Germany. I can never be president. (I wouldn't want to be president anyway. King maybe.) Pre-teen years in Ohio and Indiana. I do not have a Texas accent. <--Doesn't own a cowboy hat or cowboy boots. )

According to today's DM map, I'm now in Severe drought conditions again.

[dohboi]

It may be that help is on the way for US drought (though not general global warming and drought):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h-BJlZVfPXU (Start at 5:54, though it's all good.)

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/07/05/511372/noaa-chances-increase-for-el-nino-may-be-good-for-us-in-short-term-but-would-lead-to-rapid-warming/

NOAA Says ‘Chances Increase For El Niño’: That May Be Good for U.S. In Short Term, But Would Lead To Rapid Warming

[ritter]

Spin it to win it! "May be good for us in the short-term" my ass.

Check out that "Annual Global Temperature Anomalies" graphic from doh's article. Disturbing.

[dohboi]

Good point. The kinds of rains we are more and more likely to get are torrential downpours that wash away everything. IIRC, more crop damage comes from too much rain than from too little.

But in the meantime, we have a new record:

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-205_162-57467543/drought-reaches-record-56-percent-of-continental-u.s/

Drought reaches record 56% of continental US

And looking at the drought map, it looks like much of what is not technically in "drought" is abnormally dry.

[dohboi]

http://www.businessinsider.com/indias-monsoon-season-is-starting-to-look-like-a-disaster-2012-7#ixzz208EqGX85

India's Monsoon Season Is Starting To Look Like A Disaster

Look at that map--it looks even worse than the US drought map!

This looks to be the year when everything implodes. I'm surprised crop prices haven't gone through the roof, yet.

[edit] Or maybe they are now in the process of doing just that:

http://www.forexpros.com/news/commodities-news/grains-resume-rally-on-u.s.-drought-fears;-soy-hits-record-high-235716

Grains resume rally on U.S. drought fears; soy hits record high

(Thanks to bing at malthusia for the first link.)