Exploring Hydrocarbon Depletion
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Corella wrote:Contents of contracts potentially are real values, equivalent to physical resources or production. Since this is a virtual thing in its origin, it seems somehow appropriate to represent this by fiat money. Boon and bane at close quarters...
Problem is: quantifying! I don´t think it possible to guess future scenarios because effects how sufficient coming up crisis will be organized have overwhelming effects in all directions.
AgentR11 wrote:The first (trading commodities) is most certainly a yardstick; however, some might dislike what it reveals.
If you are going to claim its "obvious" then prove it. I get decent insight on price valuations by observing the changing cost of things over time in relation to the changing cost of various commodities.
How can it not be possible to measure the changing value of item type A as stated in the same-value quantity of item type B.
At any point in time, I can draw a point that is defined as the ratio between the cost of A and the cost of B as stated in any fiat currency of choice. Stating a function as that ratio over time, yields a curve that represents the value of A as stated in units of B.
Corella wrote:@Agent: you certainly gain precise figures But whenever you try to put these on real things there is bias, and: volatility, psychology, circumstances, coincidence...
But i actually did not try mention that, there are more decisive issues. In Germany all discountings on conventional power stations currently fail systemic, because of mandatory regulation due to fluent wind- and solar power, as a very simple example. Less simple: try find out about an investment into social projects here and now and its gains 15 years later, or opposite, the cost if you don´t. The money within this example is of a dimension of an average national debt amount, if you consider a longer perspective!
And once we touch ecological issues: can you calculate whether or not Amazon rain forests will be cut down or not and its consequences? Will nations together find a solution to solve overfishing or not? Still simple examples...
ralfy wrote:How can it not be possible to measure the changing value of item type A as stated in the same-value quantity of item type B.
When Type B is increased many times over.
AgentR11 wrote:And thus... measured. Its perfectly fine for B to increase at any finite rate, 2x / yr or 2,000,000x / yr; works perfectly fine.
I think however, its clear we are arguing about two completely unrelated concepts and mixing their points, as well as not getting the other's point.
Feel free to close the argument as you wish.
evilgenius wrote:The real issue with those blathering on about how we have lost our industrial base and now we don't make anything concrete that we can sell is not as obvious as the emotions brought into the frame suggest.
The issue is, why can't your average American keep up when it comes to what the service economy requires
the average man in a service economy and the average amount of opportunity?
but I am against the attitude that money can only come from one direction, top down.
evilgenius wrote:That being said the current mess is due to middle class over investment in non-asset class investments. The housing market is a fine place for a lot of money, but not for so much money that it distorts the opportunity picture available in terms of return on real assets.
Oh, sure, you can be a stock picker and win by guessing which companies will get the seats in a shrinking money supply game of musical chairs, but that won't help people get jobs.
pstarr wrote:Actually those who invested in the housing bubble were correct, given the data and conventional paradigm at the time. It was widely assumed that 'god only makes so much real estate', and so it made sense to buy into the limited supply (of developed land) at any cost.
ralfy wrote:We're looking at more than a quadrillion dollars of total money supply vs. physical assets of a tenth of that. Something like a trillion dollars for the former triggered a credit crisis leading to over $30 trillion vaporizing worldwide.
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