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THE Eurozone Economics Thread pt 1 (merged) Archived

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: THE Eurozone Economics Thread (merged)

Unread postby smiley » Thu 17 May 2012, 14:55:29

<edit> El mundo has now removed the original article from their website </>

(Reuters) - The Spanish government denied a newspaper report on Thursday that customers had withdrawn more than 1 billion euros (822 million pounds) from the partly nationalised lender Bankia (BKIA.MC) over the past week
....
Economy Secretary Fernando Jimenez Latorre denied a deposit flight was underway. "It's not true that there is an exit of deposits at this moment from Bankia," Latorre, a senior official who reports to the economy minister, told a news conference.
....
Bankia tried to reassure its customers. "Bankia's operations have been within their usual parameters at the branch network over the past few weeks," it said in a statement. "The trend in activity shows deposit balances will not register substantial changes in the next few days."
.....
There was no sign of any abnormal activity at Bankia branches in Madrid on Thursday. A few clients told Reuters that they had checked in with their branch manager regarding their deposits, but most said they were not moving them.

"I've got two accounts in Bankia and up to now I haven't shut them. I'm not even considering it," said Jose Ignacio Gonzalez, 42. "It has to be safer with state backing. It's got a guarantee."

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/05/1 ... 9220120517

Makes sense there hasn't been a single bank run on a nationalised bank, in contrast most nationalised banks have seen an inflow of capital since the savers see nationalisation as a form of insurance.

This is starting to look like the famous secret EU meeting last year, and some other articles. And in the summit case confirmed as being caused by a journalist being fed complete misinformation by an anonimous source and not cross-checking his information in his hurry to make the presses.

Wouldn't surprise me if some people make a lot of money over planting these types of stories at the right moments, and having the right shorts in place.

BRUSSELS - The European Commission has said it its ‘not aware' of any secret emergency meeting in Luxembourg on Friday evening to discuss the exit of Greece from the eurozone, as German newsweekly Der Spiegel's online edition has reported.

Meanwhile, the spokesman for eurogroup chief and Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, Guy Schuller told Reuters: "I totally deny that there is a meeting, these reports are totally wrong."

The Dutch finance minister is in Rotterdam, not Luxembourg tonight, the country's foreign minister reported.

http://euobserver.com/9/32281
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Re: THE Eurozone Economics Thread (merged)

Unread postby Pops » Thu 17 May 2012, 16:19:23

eXpat wrote:
Those banks are judged to be vital to the functioning of the global financial system and failure in any of the institutions would



Would what?
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Re: THE Eurozone Economics Thread (merged)

Unread postby radon » Thu 17 May 2012, 17:10:11

Pops wrote:
eXpat wrote:
Those banks are judged to be vital to the functioning of the global financial system and failure in any of the institutions would



Would what?


Probably was meant to be something unspeakable, like "release Voldemort from his CDS cage".
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Re: THE Eurozone Economics Thread (merged)

Unread postby eXpat » Thu 17 May 2012, 17:37:10

smiley wrote:<edit> El mundo has now removed the original article from their website </>

(Reuters) - The Spanish government denied a newspaper report on Thursday that customers had withdrawn more than 1 billion euros (822 million pounds) from the partly nationalised lender Bankia (BKIA.MC) over the past week
....
Economy Secretary Fernando Jimenez Latorre denied a deposit flight was underway. "It's not true that there is an exit of deposits at this moment from Bankia," Latorre, a senior official who reports to the economy minister, told a news conference.
....
Bankia tried to reassure its customers. "Bankia's operations have been within their usual parameters at the branch network over the past few weeks," it said in a statement. "The trend in activity shows deposit balances will not register substantial changes in the next few days."
.....
There was no sign of any abnormal activity at Bankia branches in Madrid on Thursday. A few clients told Reuters that they had checked in with their branch manager regarding their deposits, but most said they were not moving them.

"I've got two accounts in Bankia and up to now I haven't shut them. I'm not even considering it," said Jose Ignacio Gonzalez, 42. "It has to be safer with state backing. It's got a guarantee."

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/05/1 ... 9220120517

Makes sense there hasn't been a single bank run on a nationalised bank, in contrast most nationalised banks have seen an inflow of capital since the savers see nationalisation as a form of insurance.

This is starting to look like the famous secret EU meeting last year, and some other articles. And in the summit case confirmed as being caused by a journalist being fed complete misinformation by an anonimous source and not cross-checking his information in his hurry to make the presses.

Wouldn't surprise me if some people make a lot of money over planting these types of stories at the right moments, and having the right shorts in place.

BRUSSELS - The European Commission has said it its ‘not aware' of any secret emergency meeting in Luxembourg on Friday evening to discuss the exit of Greece from the eurozone, as German newsweekly Der Spiegel's online edition has reported.

Meanwhile, the spokesman for eurogroup chief and Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, Guy Schuller told Reuters: "I totally deny that there is a meeting, these reports are totally wrong."

The Dutch finance minister is in Rotterdam, not Luxembourg tonight, the country's foreign minister reported.

http://euobserver.com/9/32281

Spanish government is doing damage control , which is what any responsible governement would do. Try to freeze the situation and kick the can a bit further. After all no one wants to live in a failed state.
Spain moves to calm bank fears
The Spanish government called for investor calm on Thursday as shares in Bankia, the country’s second-largest bank by domestic deposits, tumbled by nearly 30 per cent and Moody’s conducted a sweeping downgrade of the country’s lenders.

Further fuelling the sense of unease among eurozone banks, the government in Cyprus announced it would underwrite a €1.8bn capital raising by Popular Bank of Cyprus that analysts said could force the tiny island nation to seek bailout assistance from Brussels.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1c0fd102-a046-11e1-90f3-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1ux5f0xo0
Today was a very bad day for Spain, not only Bankia´s shares fell during the day to a staggering 30% at one point (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/may/17/spain-denies-bankia-customers-rushing-to-withdraw?newsfeed=true)
But also Moody downgraded 4 important municipalities (and 16 banks) to http://www.prensaescrita.com/adiario.php?codigo=S&pagina=http://www.elpais.com junk bond level. Not to mention the beating in the stock market.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/05/17/uk-spain-economy-idUKBRE84G0DC20120517.
And the biggest intraday drop in the stock market since 1987 (link in spanish) http://www.prensaescrita.com/adiario.php?codigo=S&pagina=http://www.elpais.com
The spin machine is working overtime in Spain, however is plain to see after checking the public opinions in blogs and online newspapers, that the spaniars are not buying it.
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Re: THE Eurozone Economics Thread (merged)

Unread postby eXpat » Thu 17 May 2012, 18:13:11

Meanwhile in sunny Greece: another day, another queue at the bank
Greeks Pull Cash Out of Banks as Confidence Wanes
Worried for the future, Greeks are pulling money out of banks at an increasing rate and either transferring it abroad when they can or hiding it at home.

"I know a lot of people have drawn their money from the bank," said Apostolis Manafas 57, unemployed, of Athens. "I have friends that even hide their money in their closets. It reminds me of our grandparents and old Greek movies, where people sewed their savings in their mattresses."

Greeks withdrew more than $900 million Monday and another $600 million Tuesday, according to the Greek Central Bank. While deposits have been steadily leaving banks since the start of the country's debt problems in 2009, this week's outpouring of cash reflects a new level of panic, analysts say.

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/greeks-pull-cash-banks-confidence-wanes/story?id=16368493#.T7WCZnmXmSo

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Re: THE Eurozone Economics Thread (merged)

Unread postby smiley » Thu 17 May 2012, 18:54:25

Spanish government is doing damage control , which is what any responsible governement would do.

The spin machine is working overtime in Spain

So what your saying is that the Spanish government is controlling Reuters? I mean El Mundo posts an article, the withdraws it, the government denies it, the bank denies it, Reuters who has people on the ground denies it. Wouldn't you agree there is a slight chance this article was based on incorrect information?

Today was a very bad day for Spain, not only Bankia´s shares fell during the day to a staggering 30% at one point

Which is exactly my point. If you had foreknowledge of the publication of this article you could have made a lot of money. Both on the run down as the 20% rise after it became apparent that the information was incorrect.

And the biggest intraday drop in the stock market since 1987 (link in spanish)

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Must have had pretty calm markets since 1987 8)
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Re: THE Eurozone Economics Thread (merged)

Unread postby eXpat » Thu 17 May 2012, 22:18:09

smiley wrote:So what your saying is that the Spanish government is controlling Reuters? I mean El Mundo posts an article, the withdraws it, the government denies it, the bank denies it, Reuters who has people on the ground denies it. Wouldn't you agree there is a slight chance this article was based on incorrect information?

Reuters, the Bank and the spanish gov can deny it, but the facts are:

-€1bn was pulled from the Spanish bank Bankia since May 9 if is not a bank run, very much looks like one.
http://rt.com/business/news/europe-banks-withdrawal-deposits-481/

-Shares in Bankia, reached a low of 29pc at one point today and ended down 13.53pc.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/debt-crisis-live/9271371/Debt-crisis-as-it-happened-May-17-2012.html

-According to the newspaper ABC Bankia lost €11,5 millons trying to buy their own shares to stop the slide:
http://www.abc.es/20120518/economia/abci-bankia-acciones-autocartera-perdida-201205172244.html

I would say that is a bit candid to take at face value what the bosses of a bank that is under massive withdrawals have to say about the stability of their own bank, don´t you think? And the spanish government IS in this case, the biggest partner/stakeholders of Bankia (45%), no exactly an impartial position. IMO.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com.ar/2012/05/spain-nationalizes-bfa-and-45-of-bankia.html
In any case the next days will give us a clear image.
And since we are talking about the people in the ground of Routers, this is the certainty they have about the situation:

"El problema ahora mismo es que no se sabe lo que Bankia vale ahora ni cuánto dinero va a tener que poner finalmente el Estado en Bankia. La incertidumbre es absoluta y así es imposible valorar nada", dijo una operadora a Reuters.
http://www.eleconomista.es/mercados-cotizaciones/noticias/3973029/05/12/Bankia-se-hunde-un-23-en-bolsa-hasta-1277-euros-por-accion.html
(Translation: The problem now is that we do not know what is Bankia value right now or how much money will have to finally put the state in Bankia. The uncertainty is absolute and is impossible to evaluate anything, "said an operator to Reuters.)
smiley wrote:
And the biggest intraday drop in the stock market since 1987 (link in spanish)

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Must have had pretty calm markets since 1987 8)

I don´t know about that, but that is what the article that i linked says, and it hasn´t been rebutted, and yes, that includes 2008
(Text in spanish from the original article)
La Bolsa no encuentra suelo. El desplome acumulado por el índice Ibex 35 desde los máximos previos a la crisis ha pasado a ser hoy el mayor en la historia del índice, calculado desde 1987. Con la caída de hoy, el retroceso desde el máximo intradía de 16.040,4 puntos del 9 de noviembre de 2007 es ya el 59,4%. Nunca antes el índice había perdido tanto terreno desde un máximo.

http://www.prensaescrita.com/adiario.php?codigo=S&pagina=http://www.elpais.com

Do you want more detail in the situation? There is internet! get first hand information! check the spanish newspapers and the economic blogs, I did and they don´t show a pretty picture. I´m reading some comments about what the gov says about the situation, and they are a bit, how would i put it? : 8) "unsavory".
Some links for your perusal:
http://www.republica.com/2012/05/17/con-bankia-en-caida-libre-moodys-rebaja-entre-uno-y-tres-escalones-la-nota-de-16-bancos-espanoles_494313/
http://www.larazon.es/noticia/4701-bankia-pide-calma-en-una-sesion-de-vertigo-en-bolsa
http://blogeconomia.com/2012/05/la-falsa-nacionalizacion-de-bankia/
http://www.elmundo.es/elmundo/2012/05/17/economia/1337257141.html#comentarios
http://www.eleconomista.es/mercados-cotizaciones/noticias/3974458/05/12/Bankia-relaja-las-caidas-del-29-y-cierra-en-los-142-euros.html
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Re: THE Eurozone Economics Thread (merged)

Unread postby smiley » Fri 18 May 2012, 04:54:04

Reuters, the Bank and the spanish gov can deny it, but the facts are:
-€1bn was pulled from the Spanish bank Bankia since May 9 if is not a bank run, very much looks like one.


The definition of a fact is i) that it is true ii) that it is verifiable by an independent observer.

So how can I verify this "fact" of $1bn. All the links you have given me so far are based on the article by El Mundo as only source of information, which in it's turn is based on a single anonimous source.

Just think of it, all these hundreds of articles that appeared yesterday, are based on a single journalist, who claims to have gotten this information from someone close to (but not in) the board of directors. This source wasn't even in the meeting were the $1bn number was mentioned.

And then you go... Well OK that must be a fact then and everyone that says something differently must be lying. Sorry I need a bit more proof than that.

The markets doesn't seem to agree with the degree of factuality of the bank run. BKIA is +30%, SAN and others are also up for the day.
Bankia S.A.
STN: ES:BKIA GO
OVERVIEW €1.86
Change +0.44 +30.73%
Volume 4.28m
May 18, 2012 10:50 a.m.



And the biggest intraday drop in the stock market since 1987 (link in spanish)

La Bolsa no encuentra suelo. El desplome acumulado por el índice Ibex 35 desde los máximos previos a la crisis ha pasado a ser hoy el mayor en la historia del índice, calculado desde 1987. Con la caída de hoy, el retroceso desde el máximo intradía de 16.040,4 puntos del 9 de noviembre de 2007 es ya el 59,4%. Nunca antes el índice había perdido tanto terreno desde un máximo.


Sorry for asking, but can you actually read Spanish, or are you bablefishing?

What this snippet quite clearly states is that the decline from the "intraday high" of 2007 to the current low of 2012 is the largest in history. That's a five year period not intraday. Intraday the IBEX dropped -1.1%.

If you want I can give you a hand in translating Spanish.
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Re: THE Eurozone Economics Thread (merged)

Unread postby eXpat » Fri 18 May 2012, 08:32:31

smiley wrote:
Reuters, the Bank and the spanish gov can deny it, but the facts are:
-€1bn was pulled from the Spanish bank Bankia since May 9 if is not a bank run, very much looks like one.


The definition of a fact is i) that it is true ii) that it is verifiable by an independent observer.

So how can I verify this "fact" of $1bn. All the links you have given me so far are based on the article by El Mundo as only source of information, which in it's turn is based on a single anonimous source.

Just think of it, all these hundreds of articles that appeared yesterday, are based on a single journalist, who claims to have gotten this information from someone close to (but not in) the board of directors. This source wasn't even in the meeting were the $1bn number was mentioned.

And then you go... Well OK that must be a fact then and everyone that says something differently must be lying. Sorry I need a bit more proof than that.

The markets doesn't seem to agree with the degree of factuality of the bank run. BKIA is +30%, SAN and others are also up for the day.
Bankia S.A.
STN: ES:BKIA GO
OVERVIEW €1.86
Change +0.44 +30.73%
Volume 4.28m
May 18, 2012 10:50 a.m.



And the biggest intraday drop in the stock market since 1987 (link in spanish)

La Bolsa no encuentra suelo. El desplome acumulado por el índice Ibex 35 desde los máximos previos a la crisis ha pasado a ser hoy el mayor en la historia del índice, calculado desde 1987. Con la caída de hoy, el retroceso desde el máximo intradía de 16.040,4 puntos del 9 de noviembre de 2007 es ya el 59,4%. Nunca antes el índice había perdido tanto terreno desde un máximo.


Sorry for asking, but can you actually read Spanish, or are you bablefishing?

What this snippet quite clearly states is that the decline from the "intraday high" of 2007 to the current low of 2012 is the largest in history. That's a five year period not intraday. Intraday the IBEX dropped -1.1%.

If you want I can give you a hand in translating Spanish.

Ok, clearly you are in the mood to argue about nothing, so good luck with that, this is my last post about this issue, I going to note however that you keep claiming the original article to el mundo, i have pointed out several sources, most of them spanish themselves that show those numbers (or do you think all the spanish newspapers and blogs are waiting what "el mundo" has to say to publish their news??), if you want to keep grasping to that article, be my guest, whatever rocks your boat.
A regarding the spanish language, i´m fluent in spanish, italian and portuguese, currently i´m living in southamerica, so my spanish skills are quite well, don´t really care about your cockiness this time of the day, BTW, what part of " Nunca antes el índice había perdido tanto terreno desde un máximo" you don´t understand? . [smilie=new_321.gif] [smilie=thefinger.gif]
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Re: THE Eurozone Economics Thread (merged)

Unread postby eXpat » Fri 18 May 2012, 10:04:50

UK customers worried about savings in Santander:
Santander UK insists British savers' money is safe after Kent county council pulls overnight deposit account
Santander UK has laid out the safety measures it has in place to prevent potential difficulties at its Spanish parent spreading to its British customers.

The bank moved to reassure UK customers after Kent County Council said it would no longer use the bank for overnight deposits after the Spanish government was forced to take measures to ensure the country's banks are safe from collapse.

On Friday, the government in Madrid announced all toxic loans at the country's banks will be placed in ‘bad bank’ holding companies and banks will be required to raise and set aside an extra €30billion (£24billion) against their good mortgage loans.
The Spanish government also took a 45 per cent stake in Bankia, Spain’s fourth-biggest bank, as its exposure to the failing property market proved unmanageable.

That followed a downgrade of Spanish banks by ratings agency S&P at the end of last month. The banks, including Banco Santander, saw their ratings cut following a downgrade to Spain overall, but S&P made clear that Santander UK - the UK arm - was not exposed to the same risks as its parent bank and that it did not see any need to alter its rating.

The latest funding measures impact on Banco Santander, the Spanish banks that owns 100 per cent of shares in Santander UK. The UK operation said that they posed no risk to UK accounts, and that ‘money raised in Britain stays in Britain’.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-2144653/Santander-UK-says-British-savers-money-safe-Kent-County-Council-pulls-account.html

Santander was one of the banks affected by the downgrade yesterday:
Moody's downgrades Santander UK along with 16 Spanish banks
The credit rating agency Moody's has downgraded 16 Spanish banks along with Santander's UK arm, citing the Spanish government's reduced ability to shore up the banks.

Santander UK, whose rating was lowered to A2 – a notch higher than its Spanish parent – insisted there was no impact on its business and that it was an autonomous subsidiary with 90% of its assets held in the UK, where it is also regulated. Moody's admitted it was unlikely that the UK Financial Services Authority would allow Santander UK to substantially weaken itself in order to support the parent. increasing instability.

Earlier Moody's had also downgraded four regions in Spain.

The moves from the credit rating agency came after a day of fears that Spain will be the next domino to fall if Greece leaves the euro, as the country was forced to deny that there was a run on its fourth-biggest lender, Bankia.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/may/17/spain-denies-bankia-customers-rushing-to-withdraw?newsfeed=true
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Re: THE Eurozone Economics Thread (merged)

Unread postby smiley » Fri 18 May 2012, 10:15:47

Ok, clearly you are in the mood to argue about nothing,

Wait a second, A few posts earlier you present this article as clear proof of a contangion and the falling apart of Spain. Then when I question the validity of the claims made in the article you suddenly hit the reverse and say that the article equates to nothing.
BTW, what part of " Nunca antes el índice había perdido tanto terreno desde un máximo" you don´t understand?

The part which translates to "intraday". Sorry but you cannot BS yourself out of this one :-D
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Re: THE Eurozone Economics Thread (merged)

Unread postby eXpat » Fri 18 May 2012, 13:10:12

Even lower...
Fitch downgrades Greek banks after sovereign cut
WASHINGTON — Fitch lowered its ratings of Greek banks Friday in the wake of its cut of the country's sovereign rating.

Fitch put the new rating for the National Bank of Greece, Efg Eurobank Ergasias, Alpha Bank, Piraeus Bank and Agricultural Bank of Greece at CCC, down from B-minus, in the mid-level range for "speculative" or junk bonds. The move came a day after Fitch cut Greece's sovereign rating to CCC, or "vulnerable to default", over the increased risk that the country would be forced to leave the eurozone.

"In the event that the new general elections scheduled for 17 June fail to produce a government with a mandate to continue with the EU-IMF program of fiscal austerity and structural reform, an exit of Greece from (the eurozone) would be probable, and/or this could be followed by a withdrawal of international support to Greek banks," Fitch said.

article
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Re: THE Eurozone Economics Thread (merged)

Unread postby dorlomin » Fri 18 May 2012, 13:43:22

Greeks are claiming Merkel said they should have a referendum on membership. Germans denying she did.
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Re: THE Eurozone Economics Thread (merged)

Unread postby eXpat » Sat 19 May 2012, 18:56:20

Ireland 'may need' second bailout
Ireland's bailed-out banks may need as much as €4 billion more loan loss provisions than assumed in stress tests last year, which could "tip the balance in favor" of the country requiring a second aid program, Deutsche Bank said in a report today.

"A new, even modest, increase in capital requirements could deter sovereign investor participation and tip the balance in favor of the sovereign requiring a second loan program," said Deutsche Bank analysts David Lock and Jason Napier.

The government's plan to introduce new personal insolvency laws creates "risks", even as politicians and the financial regulators seek to avoid widespread residential mortgage debt forgiveness, the bank said.

"Although resilient during 2009 and 2010, mortgage arrears have risen sharply over the past year, house prices are continuing to fall, market liquidity is limited, and over half of customers are now in negative equity," said Deutsche Bank analysts in the report.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2012/0518/breaking28.html
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Re: THE Eurozone Economics Thread (merged)

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sat 19 May 2012, 19:36:54

eXpat wrote:Ireland 'may need' second bailout
Ireland's bailed-out banks may need as much as €4 billion more loan loss provisions than assumed in stress tests last year, which could "tip the balance in favor" of the country requiring a second aid program, Deutsche Bank said in a report today.

"A new, even modest, increase in capital requirements could deter sovereign investor participation and tip the balance in favor of the sovereign requiring a second loan program," said Deutsche Bank analysts David Lock and Jason Napier.

The government's plan to introduce new personal insolvency laws creates "risks", even as politicians and the financial regulators seek to avoid widespread residential mortgage debt forgiveness, the bank said.

"Although resilient during 2009 and 2010, mortgage arrears have risen sharply over the past year, house prices are continuing to fall, market liquidity is limited, and over half of customers are now in negative equity," said Deutsche Bank analysts in the report.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2012/0518/breaking28.html


The only thing that's stopping the mortgage arrears issue really becoming a crisis is the fact that many mortgages are on ECB tracker rates and the banks are currently losing on these.

Shift those mortgages onto variable rate and the effect would be disasterous, the default rate would go through the roof. People here can't just walk away like in the US, if they could, many would!
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Re: THE Eurozone Economics Thread (merged)

Unread postby eXpat » Mon 21 May 2012, 11:57:53

Europe’s Worst Fear: Spain and Greece Spiral Down Together
LONDON — In a season of nightmare projections for Europe, this one could be the scariest: Greek leaves the euro currency union at the same time Spain’s banking system is collapsing.

In many ways, the market convulsion last week was a test run for those crises, as political deadlock in Greece and mounting fears over the health of Bankia, one of the largest consumer banks in Spain, converged. The credit ratings agency Moody’s Investors Service downgraded the entire Spanish banking sector Thursday.
...
The money available to Europe within its main bailout fund, about €780 billion, or $997 billion, would not be enough to handle the twin calamities of a Greek euro exit and a Spanish banking implosion.

And despite recent statements from Germany and from leaders of the Group of 8 industrialized nations meeting in the United States over the weekend to encourage economic growth in the euro zone, the European tax-paying public may have little desire to continue financing the debt disasters of other countries.

“When you have Greece and Spain happening at the same time, the problem becomes exponential and very, very dangerous,” said Stephen Jen, a former economist at the International Monetary Fund who runs a hedge fund in London. “So far, the policy has been to buy time and build a firewall — but that just makes the cost bigger. There is just no good ending here.”

The numbers do look dire.

Stephane Deo, an economist at UBS, estimates that the cost of a Greek exit to European taxpayers would be €225 billion, assuming Greece defaulted on the money it now owes to European public institutions.

But, he says, the real fear is that while that was happening, the slow-motion collapse of Spanish banks from toxic real estate loans could suddenly turn into a fast-moving bank run, as depositors pulled out their money.

With Spanish banks now holding deposits of €2.3 trillion, such a loss of confidence could be disastrous for Spain and for the highly interconnected global banking system. The financial world’s assumption lately has been that it is sufficiently prepared to absorb the consequences of a Greek withdrawal from the euro. But if a Spanish banking collapse were factored in, Europe’s long-dreaded “Lehman moment” might finally arrive. “The scale is just so much bigger, when you talk about Spain,” Mr. Deo said.

Technocrats in Brussels will readily say that what is now keeping them up at night is Spain. They are trying to see beyond the tools that so far have kept a true crisis at bay: the two rounds of low-cost loans that the European Central Bank extended to commercial banks late last year and earlier this one, and the €780 billion bailout fund.

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Re: THE Eurozone Economics Thread (merged)

Unread postby Timo » Mon 21 May 2012, 16:25:57

OK, would it be safe at this point to classify South America as the last bastion of economic stability left on the planet? Sure. I know Argentina has had/continues to have its own economic problems, but the overall economic stability of South America is not bound together, ie, the Euro and the EU. If Antarctica had any economy at all, i'd claim that land/ice as being economically stable.

Maybe that's not a bad idea! Doomer's paradise! Antartica! Start our own, independent, autonomous economy, where penguins are used as currency! The primary industry would be pure survival! :mrgreen:
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Re: THE Eurozone Economics Thread (merged)

Unread postby eXpat » Tue 22 May 2012, 08:22:11

The Mortgage Crisis Hits France Front And Center: Are French Bank Nationalizations Imminent?
If you said some sovereign or corporate issue based out of Spain, Italy, Ireland, Portugal, or even Greece you would be close... but no cigar. No - the bond in question is an issue of Caisse Centrale du Credit Immobilier de France (3CIF), which together with its sister entity CIF Euromortgage (CIFE), is a 100% subsidiary of Credit Immobilier de France Development (CIFD), which as Fitch describes it, is a French "housing loans specialist, with business exclusively directed to France." CIFD is in turn owned by Procivis Group, which just happens to be France's second largest full-service real estate group.

In other words, CIFD, together with its subsidiaries 3CIF and CIFE represent a critical glance into the functioning (or lack thereof) of the French mortgage market. The various CIF mortgage entities are related as per the following Org Chart:
A brief summary on the Procivis Group, of which the CIF entities are a part of, via Fitch (bear with us - this is important):

Business: Mortgage financing in France continues to be predominantly distributed through the biggest retail and saving banks in the country. Specialist banks thus have a modest cumulative market share (10%-12%), but benefit from their wide range of products to maintain their franchise. CIFD offered 15 products at end-2011 and has developed some innovative services (eg, price insurance under which the difference between the sale price and the original price paid by the borrower, if negative, is covered up to EUR40,000 by the insurer). Its specialisation and its strong expertise in the French housing market represent key strengths compared with more global peers, as they enable the group to provide bespoke products to its customers. CIFD extends loans predominantly to private individuals, but also caters for investors' needs

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Never mind, since austerity is not the solution, they just need to print, print and everything will be ok :twisted:
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Re: THE Eurozone Economics Thread (merged)

Unread postby dsula » Tue 22 May 2012, 11:52:37

ZH + Alex, it's news not to be taken very seriously.
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Re: THE Eurozone Economics Thread (merged)

Unread postby dolanbaker » Wed 23 May 2012, 05:08:33

The mortgage crisis in Ireland is real and will force Irish banks to seek further help.
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
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