THE Oil : Gold Thread (merged)

[biofuel13]

I'm pretty sure that "Barbie" is a bot of some kind. I see her post here once a week or so. She always starts her own new thread containing slightly out of date info. I've never seen her post on any other thread(and I've read nearly every post here in the last year).

I've never clicked the link that she posts and I see that a mod has already removed it...where does that link lead to? Some sort of pay site?

As some have mentioned above, the level of information that she posts is at about an elementary school level, and usually out of date. I'm not a HOF kinda guy, I guess I just expect more out of my fellow PO posters than a simple cut and paste job, or worse advertisements.

[Daniel_Plainview]

Hey guys, how are you doing.

Dearest Barbie:

You open with a question, but neglect the question mark (?) at the end of your question. Perhaps you're not being sincere when you're asking us "how are you doing."

[Graeme]

Relation between Gold, Crude oil & Dollar

Using analytic techniques based on Hubbert's work, oil and gas experts now project that world oil production will peak sometime in the latter half of this decade. We are now depleting global reserves at an annual rate of 6 percent, while demand is growing at an annual rate of 2 percent (and that growth rate is expected to triple over the next 20 years). This means we must increase world reserves by 8 percent per annum simply to maintain the status quo, and we are nowhere near achieving that goal. In fact, we are so far from it that, according to Dr. Colin Campbell, one of the world's leading geologists, the world consumes four barrels of oil for every one it discovers.

Once a supply shortfall materializes, the US will be in competition with China, India, Japan and other importing countries for available oil. Many experts are now predicting US$100 per barrel within the next two years. Some believe it will go even higher. Taking geopolitical factors and supply/demand fundamentals into consideration, it is impossible to predict how high the price of oil will soar. One thing seems certain – the age of cheap oil is over.

http://blogs.siliconindia.com/anujsingh/Relation_between_Gold_Crude_oil__Dollar-bid-SWCvys2R67464030.html

[Jotapay]

I think 2 years is about right. Starting in 2011, that is when I see the price of oil headed upwards. However, the 2011 price increase will mainly be driven by a collapsing dollar as the world flees the dollar and quits loaning the USA money. This assumes oil is still traded in dollars then.

Around 2015 or so (mid to late 20-teens) is when I see real crap start to hit the fan in regards to oil. The price will be as high as anyone can afford. But you will start to see politicians doing some serious posturing for war, oil exports plummet, rationing, minor civil unrest, etc. This is around the time that we just start to see parabolic rates of decline in oil production, according to many PO graphs.

[pedalling_faster]

i definitely notice a relation between the 3 of them.

in March, the day the Fed announced they were going to print $300 billion, oil was down mid-morning, and gold down-ticked to $880.

then the Fed made the announcement, and gold spiked to $950 (or did the US $ fall to 1/950 th an ounce of gold ?)

i sometimes wonder why oil-exporting countries still accept the US $.

what if they start demanding payment in gold ?

[evilgenius]

As of May 2012 the price of commodities is in free fall. What do the members of this board think is going to happen before summer nears its end?

[Revi]

I really don't know what it's going to do, but gold at $1500 and oil at $90 seems like a reasonable price.

[careinke]

I really don't know what it's going to do, but gold at $1500 and oil at $90 seems like a reasonable price.

The fun part is no one knows.

I'm guessing that Greece sets off the next depression and the prices will fall far lower than most expect.

[Pops]

The supply of "oil" is over 3Mb/d higher than last year north of 90Mb/d – OPEC has pumped over 30Mb/d the last 2 quarters.

What I think is most important is forward demand cover is over 60 days, above the 5 year average for the first time in a year. Remember, the price is set at the margin so how hard it is to get the last barrel is the key when the spare capacity is low prices rise.

I think Brent will continue down to around $100/bbl by August and OPEC will support it there.

[SeaGypsy]

I can't vote for $1880 Gold and $85 oil (a simultaneous spike/ trench)?

[Daniel_Plainview]

I'm guessing that Greece sets off the next depression and the prices will fall far lower than most expect.

I agree. If we enter a global deflationary depression (due to Greece imploding, or any number of dominoes falling), then the price of oil will tumble.

Things could muddle along for months (like they are now), or there could be a major collapse. We just don't know.

The fun part is no one knows.

Yep.

[Pops]

Back a year and a half ago when I predicted the stair-step down in oil price I said it would be because the economy would become weaker and weaker and oil prices stronger and stronger



Late last year I said the lines were converging fast and it would be interesting to see which way it breaks'



this guy thinks so now too (WTI):




The IEA says demand growth was flat Q4-11 but expects it to grow to 1.2Mb/d by Q4-12 I'll be surprised - even though I guessed in the game that the price would fall by summer and rise by New Years.

[SeaGypsy]

A picture from Pops paints a thousand words. I think your breakout question is the main one, which the quiz doesn't really go to. There is plenty of room for novelty events (as in Chaos Theorem) building.

[Revi]

I don't mind because it's time to buy our heating oil for next year and I want the price down when it's time to buy. Then it can start going up again.

I bought some SLV for my retirement fund at under $30, which wasn't the bottom obviously, but who can call the bottom anyway? If Greece tanks we are talking a major depression and they will do some stimulus to try to revive it, which may revive inflation, so we may be at or near the bottom of commodities. (or we may not)

The truth is that I have no idea what will happen.

[Csatadi]

The US will bomb Iran only next year so if Iran doesn't take the initiative and shoot ships, which is unlikely, the price will not rise. Good chance to buy some reserves for the next year.

[BobInget]

At some point traders lost interest in the cluster disaster that is the Mid-East. Did you know for-instance
Saudia Arabia is annexing Barain? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18120787

[evilgenius]

The ability to change your vote will close down soon. Change it now if you have lost confidence in your earlier position.

[Revi]

No, I'll stick with my prediction. I hope it stays around these prices, so I can buy oil, and maybe even some gold, if I have the money (not likely)

[SeaGypsy]

I would have a buy price (were I playing real$) anything under about $82 WTI $89 Brent. The way the tickers look this morning we haven't seen the bottom of the week, month or year yet and have gone sub $90 WTI for the first time since the corresponding dip last year and 2010/ neither of which turned exactly into a dead cat bounce...
I think we will see your theorem tested again this year Pops, will be very interesting to observe. Exponential complexity is one of the main signs of imminent danger to empire.

[SeaGypsy]

The price of gold can go absolutely berzerk if and when folks holding paper gold start demanding physical delivery. It is estimated there is an 80% + gap between the amount of certificate gold and the actual amount ever mined. That is not including futures, which may actually be the safest way to buy, as long as the future is for physical delivery at a price fixed today. A global run on real gold is a real possibility in the current term and the forseeable.