THE 2012 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

[Cog]

Its natural that the members here want to follow anything that affects my first place standing.

[SeaGypsy]

Cog has certainly maintained the lead and dominated the race with finesse, the pack is tighter than ever for the lead, with SG struggling for sunlight or clean air and his own pack bunching up and close...

[careinke]

Its natural that the members here want to follow anything that affects my first place standing.

HA! Prepare yourself for defeat.

[Cog]

As long as oil stay within the band of about $92-$103, I'll be ok. But if it goes appreciably lower than $92, the low price will knock me out of first place permanently and other players will dominate. On the high side of $104, kublikhan(my arch-nemesis) takes over first again.

I need a series of bad news(but not too bad) and good news(but not too good) to stay in this narrow range. An attack on Iran or further recessionary problems screw me.

[PeakOiler]

According to the Dukascopy Bank ticker,
http://www.cx-portal.com/wti/oil_en.html,
WTI has dipped below $92 ($91.33). The EIA report next week may also show a new low price for the year. If so, I'll post an update.

Meanwhile, the Seaway pipeline begins operation this weekend and I think in the short term it will have little effect on the WTI price, but by the end of the year and later on in 2013, when the flow rate gets up to 400K bpd, we may see some effect as well as a reduction in the Brent-WTI spread. We'll see.

It might be interesting to track the levels of imported oil to the Gulf Coast (PADD 3).

[Cog]

Hmm higher oil prices for the Midwest which should be deflationary to the economy. Balance will be achieved around $100-105/bbl. I can live with that.

[Revi]

I'm still back in the 32nd place that I have become used to. If we have some kind of a major event I'll rise, but otherwise I'm glad I'm losing because I want to buy heating oil at a lower price in June. Then it can go up again.

[SeaGypsy]

Or we could be in for another dip and bounce cycle like I have bet on for the 3rd year running... The dollar surge with EU calamity and lag on Seaway take up have that gleam in my eye again, as I tire of chewing Cog and Kub's dust I can see the light, I can see light.....

[Beery1]

I hope it plunges another $17 or so.

Then we can have our annual black swan event...

I just need another 7 points. So close!

[davep]

I need a series of bad news(but not too bad) and good news(but not too good) to stay in this narrow range. An attack on Iran or further recessionary problems screw me.

I need recessionary problems followed by an attack on Iran over the next six months

[Pops]

Gonna be hard for me to catch cog or kub if the refineries keep up with the flow from the Seaway, I didn't think it was going to open until later this year. My crystal ball said the economy will take off later in the year and run the price back up over $100.

Kind of a drag to hope the economy heats up so it will raise the price of oil...

[Plantagenet]

Skullduggery is afoot in the 2012 challenge!

My entry (on page one of this thread) included

WTI high = 103

My entry was entered correctly in the first table, but somewhere along the line my WTI high number has been switched from 103 to 135 in the last table, thereby lowering my score ----it appears someone is resorting to underhanded devious subterfuge in the 2012 challenge.

POer---Please return my entry to the actual numbers I entered (and other folks might want to check if their entries have been accidentally altered as well).

[PeakOiler]

Apparently you forgot that you revised your high estimate. From page 5 of this thread:

Only two days until the deadline.

Would you please revise my max estimate upward to $135?

Thanks!

I didn't anticipate that Obama would start off the new year by demanding that Japan, South Korea, China, India. the EU, etc. stop importing Iranian oil, thereby precipitating a major crisis over oil with the Iranians.

While the global economic situation is getting worse and would be expected to drive oil prices down, political miscalculations in 2012 will result in much higher oil prices than would be justified just by the supply/demand situation.

[Plantagenet]

Apparently you forgot that you revised your high estimate.

Only two days until the deadline.

Would you please revise my max estimate upward to $135?

Thanks!

I didn't anticipate that Obama would start off the new year by demanding that Japan, South Korea, China, India. the EU, etc. stop importing Iranian oil, thereby precipitating a major crisis over oil with the Iranians.

While the global economic situation is getting worse and would be expected to drive oil prices down, political miscalculations in 2012 will result in much higher oil prices than would be justified just by the supply/demand situation.

You are right! Just goes to show thats its always best to stick with your first idea.

OK oil price----go higher. more up. higher and H I G H E R.

[Beery1]

Just need four more points to the downside. Come on baby, just a little more - but not too much!

This latest drop has to ring in big changes in the scoreboard. Eleven of the participants have lows of 90 or above, and nine of them are in the top half of the board.

If things don't change much from here, Obiwan is looking pretty good.

[TheAntiDoomer]

I could be wrong, but by my calculation TheAntiDoomer is in 1st place?

The crazy thing is if the current highs and lows stick I think I own everything from like 90-105!

[PeakOiler]

Another new low was reported this week by the EIA:



Now that new low prices are occurring, there will be changes in "the pack."

I expected the current lows to have happened by the end of January or February. Oh well.

The race isn't half over. We will see what happens.

[TheAntiDoomer]

I thought we got down to 89 something? or does the close only count?

[TheAntiDoomer]

Gonna be hard for me to catch cog or kub if the refineries keep up with the flow from the Seaway, I didn't think it was going to open until later this year. My crystal ball said the economy will take off later in the year and run the price back up over $100.

Kind of a drag to hope the economy heats up so it will raise the price of oil...

Pops, are you hoping for the economy to fail?!!?!!!?!?

[Cog]

I thought we got down to 89 something? or does the close only count?

Take your beating like a man.

We still have a half year for more drama.