Exploring Hydrocarbon Depletion
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barbara23 wrote:Hey guys, how are you doing.
Using analytic techniques based on Hubbert's work, oil and gas experts now project that world oil production will peak sometime in the latter half of this decade. We are now depleting global reserves at an annual rate of 6 percent, while demand is growing at an annual rate of 2 percent (and that growth rate is expected to triple over the next 20 years). This means we must increase world reserves by 8 percent per annum simply to maintain the status quo, and we are nowhere near achieving that goal. In fact, we are so far from it that, according to Dr. Colin Campbell, one of the world's leading geologists, the world consumes four barrels of oil for every one it discovers.
Once a supply shortfall materializes, the US will be in competition with China, India, Japan and other importing countries for available oil. Many experts are now predicting US$100 per barrel within the next two years. Some believe it will go even higher. Taking geopolitical factors and supply/demand fundamentals into consideration, it is impossible to predict how high the price of oil will soar. One thing seems certain – the age of cheap oil is over.
Revi wrote:I really don't know what it's going to do, but gold at $1500 and oil at $90 seems like a reasonable price.
careinke wrote:I'm guessing that Greece sets off the next depression and the prices will fall far lower than most expect.
The fun part is no one knows.
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