The 10 Arguments Against Peak Oil

[Pops]

We can start with this article:
Seven myths used to debunk peak oil, debunked Transition Voice

[AdTheNad]

8 My economics professor said so.

9 There are infinite substitutes for everything.

10 The free market will save us.

[Windmills]

11. Humans are greater than God in their capacity to solve problems through technology. We will always be able to solve every problem through technological means. "They" will forever think of something. Like oil, "human ingenuity" is surely infinite.

[radon]

12. Titan has vast amounts of methane, and other planets in the outer space may have unlimited supply of hydrocarbons.

First, it needs to be defined what is the proposition that is argued against. The fact that Earth-borne oil will have to peak is indisputable by the very definition of a limited resource, unless there is a hole into another dimension deep inside the Earth.

The OP article's arguments appears to challenge the proposition that oil has already peaked - in that, they may well prove to be valid.

[Pops]

First, it needs to be defined what is the proposition that is argued against.

Good.

How's this:

Peak oil theory says:
Oil is finite, there will be a period of maximum extraction, which will be near the midpoint of total production.
Cheap abundant petroleum enables "modern" lifestyles and population levels.
The end of cheap, abundant oil poses a threat to current lifestyles and population levels.

Innocuous enough ? LOL

[dinopello]

First, it needs to be defined what is the proposition that is argued against.

Good.

How's this:

Peak oil theory says:
Oil is finite, there will be a period of maximum extraction, which will be near the midpoint of total production.
Cheap abundant petroleum enables "modern" lifestyles and population levels.
The end of cheap, abundant oil poses a threat to current lifestyles and population levels.

Innocuous enough ? LOL

For the first thought, I don't believe there is a credible argument against it (there will be a peak in oil extraction).

On the second, the arguments often use inductive proofs (true for n and n+1 so true for all). In this context it is basically the substitution argument (wood->coal->oil-> fusion...)

[radon]

-Technology will improve energy efficiency of the lifestyles and reduce overall energy demand.

-The lifestyles fashions will evolve towards more energy-efficient ones, and the latter will not be perceived as poorer quality than the those enjoyed prior to the peak oil.

[Cog]

On a long enough time scale living in a grass hut will be perceived as a superior quality lifestyle than the alternative of living without one.

[SeaGypsy]

Ouch...

[The Practician]

8 My economics professor said so.

I had a sneaking suspicion my economics professor wasn't the only one...

[Pops]

1. "Peak Oil" has been predicted since oil began.
Seems to me the argument most often trotted out is some variation of "They've been predicting peak oil since Drake". Not really an argument of course, merely a jab, a deflection, an obvious product of normalcy bias.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

2. There is plenty of oil, "They" won't let us drill.

3. We haven't looked everywhere.
There is some validity here although usually not intentional. Until just a few years ago, when drillers reached salt at certain depths without finding oil they believed the salt indicated ancient ocean floor formed prior to the oil formation period, so they stopped drilling. Turns out, oil formed in shallow lakes on the ancient continent of Gondwanaland then plate tectonics took over and split the continent in two. The trapped oil was then covered in thousands of feet of salt by the Atlantic ocean. So, if you drill deep enough (in the right place of course) you can find oil in places that only seem obvious in retrospect I guess. This is pre-salt oil such as Tupi in Brazil. (I'm no expert so chime in if I have this wrong)

4. Oil production is still increasing/the US is an exporter/look at all the new discoveries

5. Fracking/syncrude/deep/heavy/offshore/arctic/tight

6. Economics/Substitution

7. Conservation

[Shaved Monkey]

There's heaps of oil in Sperm Whales and Egyptian mummified cats make a great coal and fertiliser substitute.

[vtsnowedin]

So we are past "Peak Oil" in 2006. Conventional oil that is. Now we are making up the slack with corn ethanol, tar-sand oil, and natural gas liquids etc. But there are limits on what we can do with all of those and in how fast we can expand production of them. It seems unlikely that they can keep up with both the increase in world demand, driven by population growth ,and the decline in conventional crude oil plus condensate. That leads us to a day where we reach "Maximum energy available" from" All sources" . The day after that should be like topping over the climb on a roller-coaster. Anybody have a well reasoned estimate of when that max energy day might be coming up?

[Anvil]

The vast amounts of BS generated by this thread will be enough to power coal stations around the world.
Id say despite the extraordinary almost superhuman efforts of posters to generate enough hot air to solve all of our energy problems.
Hot air is not a liquid fuel so were back to square one.

[vtsnowedin]

The vast amounts of BS generated by this thread will be enough to power coal stations around the world.
Id say despite the extraordinary almost superhuman efforts of posters to generate enough hot air to solve all of our energy problems.
Hot air is not a liquid fuel so were back to square one.

Who are you mad at? This is a very new thread with most posts being a first take on the OP. There has been very little well considered debate as yet much less any BS on this topic. If you don't want to talk about it on it's merits then feel free to go somewhere else.

[Pops]

2. There is plenty of oil, "They" won't let us drill.
There is lots of oil but like most knee-jerk political arguments, this one ignores the important issues by attempting to lay blame for the entire situation at the feet of a favorite scapegoat. We see that here at PO all the time, every thread has at least one poster who blames the situation (whatever it is) on a particular politician or interest group no matter how tenuous the link.

I suppose there are people who would say there is no place that should be off limits to drilling, They would be more than happy to have a rig set up on the Capital Mall, their favorite fishing hole or their kid's school playground. For those folks I suspect strip mining and clear cutting is a sign of progress and think acid rain cuts the road film on their 4x4 better than detergent – or at least the persona they hope to project requires they act that way. But, if there is even one place a person can admit they'd hope to not see polluted, then it is only a matter of degree between them and Earth First.


You can say there is a "lot" of oil off limits but you need to define "lots". There is maybe a couple of years' worth of US consumption off the west coast, maybe a year's worth of the east coast (or maybe a couple month's, who knows) another 2 or 3 years' worth under the North Slope of AK. So just for perspective, if we could get at and burn all the off limits oil overnight, in all likelihood it would last less than 10 years. That's just a guess from a quick glance, I'm open to other opinions.

Besides, we are going to need that oil in the future to upgrade kerogen and steam clean tar sand.


http://usgovinfo.about.com/od/technolog ... Prices.htm

[meemoe_uk]

This thread won't amount to anything unless its written and edited by skeptics. Anyone who wants to help should at least read ALL of JDs epic blog 'peak oil debunked'.

[vision-master]

Why are you so concerned? If it's a non-issue who cares............

[meemoe_uk]

>Why are you so concerned? If it's a non-issue who cares............
Why are you so concermed about why I'm so concerned?

Last time time I checked I wasn't so concerned. Where did you read otherwise?
Might chip in with a fact or rant.
Like this one :-

Boom and busts have been an intergral part of western economy for over 400 years. They are nearly all due to money manipulation by those who have a monopoly of money.
Many peakers are too eager to ascribe cause of any economic stall to an oil shortage.

The hype of the 'now' - is a phrase to mean the continuum of scaremongering tabloid headlines, which has never ceased in over a hundred year. Such hype is nearly all baseless.
There many peakers held in the grip of this baseless hype, and they immediately incorrectly ascribe its cause as effects of peak oil.

[vision-master]

lol- unlimited old growth timber........