THE Nuclear Power Thread pt 5 (merged)

[dohboi]

http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/02/14/10408881-report-russia-faced-major-nuclear-disaster-in-2011

How many near misses don't we hear about?

[dohboi]

http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2012/02/fukushima-return-to-disaster-zone.html

The concrete building housing Reactor One, blown apart in the first explosion on 12 March, is now completely covered with a tarpaulin to contain its radioactivity. As our bus drives past the building, the beeping dosimeters climb to 100 microsieverts an hour. But as the most badly damaged Reactor Three looms into sight, its mess of tangled metal and steel gives off a startling reading of 1,500 microsieverts. Its cargo of lethal fuel includes plutonium and the roof of the building housing the reactor was blown off in the second explosion. "It's still too dangerous for workers to enter Reactor Three," says engineer Yasuki Hibi.

[SeaGypsy]

Thought to bump this thread as it gets into a lot of detail as Tanada convinces me the possible value of nukes in staving off doom. I started off this thread vehemently opposed to nukes really, but the arguments presented in this thread swung me.

[SeaGypsy]

I am wanting to bump this thread as it hasn't been up for more than 2 years and contains the basis of an argument in support of nuclear energy as the most viable transition fuel for the coming century.
Nukes have since this thread was written suffered more bad press with Fukushima in particular and now the Iran peaceful/ not so peaceful issue. I wonder what Tanada would add to her positions here since the time past?

[Tanada]

Fukushima is being very badly reported on by a sensational media. I didn't bother getting into the whole end of the world scenario's on the thread about it because it wasn't worth wasting my time once again shooting down all the sensational emotion filled fact free arguments once again. In 7 years on this site we have been over the arguments ad nauseum. If people want to learn as you did from this thread then they will. If they want to just feel the thrill of potential world ending disaster then that is what they will get because they are not willing to be rational and objective.

Fact #1, the reactor at Fukushima that caused 85% of the problems was scheduled for decommissioning within moths of the time the Tsunami struck. The fuel in it was nearly spent at the end of its useful energy producing lifespan and hence as absolutely radioactive as it would ever be on the day of the disaster. It needed active cooling because it was generating a lot of heat even with the reactor shut down and it didn't get active cooling because of the damage caused by the Tsunami.

Fact #2, expect for a very few cases nobody has been killed, irradiated, injured or physically harmed by Fukushima. The number of dead related to Fukushima is well under 100 the last time I looked. Katrina killed over 1000 and the Tsunami in general passed 19,300!!! Focusing on Fukushima is like having a gaping head wound but worrying about a hangnail.

In order of preference for me of the electric power supplies currently available for human use 1) Geothermal, 2) land based Hydropower, 3) sea based hydropower, 4) Nuclear Fission, 5) Wind, 6) Solar PV. Natural Gas is our best fossil choice and Coal our last resort to get the electricity we need to keep our civilization going while we transition. Unfortunately Solar PV is prohibitively expensive, Wind is intermittent in most locations and rather pricey as well. All of the rest of my preferred choices have multiple groups objecting to their use.

[AdTheNad]

Fact #1, the reactor at Fukushima that caused 85% of the problems was scheduled for decommissioning within moths of the time the Tsunami struck.

This seems a strange thing to bring up, considering how many other reactors around the world that have been scheduled for decommissioning end up being given extensions. I have no links or anything to back that up, but it's how a recall seeing things being said in various threads, so please correct me if I'm wrong. On that basis, do you actually believe, had the tsunami not struck, that Fukushima would have been decommissioned?

[Tanada]

Fact #1, the reactor at Fukushima that caused 85% of the problems was scheduled for decommissioning within moths of the time the Tsunami struck.

This seems a strange thing to bring up, considering how many other reactors around the world that have been scheduled for decommissioning end up being given extensions. I have no links or anything to back that up, but it's how a recall seeing things being said in various threads, so please correct me if I'm wrong. On that basis, do you actually believe, had the tsunami not struck, that Fukushima would have been decommissioned?

Yes, the Japanese were planning to decommission this reactor because it was old and inefficient and were planning to replace it with a brand new very efficient unit. Make no mistake, the decommissioning process is a lengthy one and if the Tsunami had struck this year instead of in 2011 the active cooling in the spent rod pool would have still been a problem when the power was lost, but the scale of the leaks would have been very different because after 9 months in the cooling pool the worst of the decay heating period would have been over. Much less heat, very little chance of fuel melting and releasing radioactive steam plumes as a result. Thus much less need for workers to endanger themselves attempting emergency measures to cool the remaining units at the complex.

[kiwichick]

tanada

wave power

carnegie wave energy

asx.com.au code CWE

[Tanada]

tanada

wave power

carnegie wave energy

asx.com.au code CWE

Hi Kiwi, to quote myself from higher on the page

In order of preference for me of the electric power supplies currently available for human use 1) Geothermal, 2) land based Hydropower, 3) sea based hydropower, 4) Nuclear Fission, 5) Wind, 6) Solar PV. Natural Gas is our best fossil choice and Coal our last resort to get the electricity we need to keep our civilization going while we transition. Unfortunately Solar PV is prohibitively expensive, Wind is intermittent in most locations and rather pricey as well. All of the rest of my preferred choices have multiple groups objecting to their use.

Your wave power is firmly in my #3 spot of preferred technologies for electricity production.

[dohboi]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9os1GFuWJ0

Japan feared 'devil's chain reaction' at nuke plant

Japan's prime minister ordered workers to remain at the tsunami-crippled Fukushima nuclear plant last March as fears mounted of a "devil's chain reaction" that would force tens of millions of people to flee Tokyo, a new investigative report shows...

Yukio Edano, then Japan's top government spokesman, told the panel that at the height of tension he feared a "devil's chain reaction" in which the Fukushima Daiichi plant and the nearby Fukushima Daini facility, as well as the Tokai nuclear plant, spiraled out of control, putting the capital at risk.

[Keith_McClary]

As Reactors Age, the Money to Close Them Lags

WASHINGTON — The operators of 20 of the nation’s aging nuclear reactors, including some whose licenses expire soon, have not saved nearly enough money for prompt and proper dismantling. If it turns out that they must close, the owners intend to let them sit like industrial relics for 20 to 60 years or even longer while interest accrues in the reactors’ retirement accounts.
...
Of the 20 reactors that lack the money for swift deconstruction, the owners hope that license renewals from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission will make the problem go away.
...
the mothball strategy carries risks that could outweigh benefits. Proponents say “it’s like magic — compound interest on the one hand and radioactive decay on the other,” he said. (Because radioactivity levels decline over time, deconstruction workers would ultimately be exposed to less contamination.) But future investment returns could prove bleak, Mr. Biewald warns, and anticipated deconstruction costs could easily rise.

PS: NYT is now allowing 10 free articles/month instead of 20.

[Keith_McClary]

For some reason my post above did not appear in "Active Topics". Testing, testing.

[dohboi]

http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/04/06/japan-nuclear-idINDEE83507B20120406?rpc=401&feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&rpc=401

Cut nuclear reliance to zero - Japan energy minister

Japan should aspire to phase out nuclear power completely, its energy minister said on Friday, even as the government struggles to persuade a wary public that it is safe to restart reactors after the world's worst nuclear crisis in 25 years.

Maybe we could get this guy to talk to our NRC?

[dohboi]

And now this from our sponsor:

http://peakoil.com/enviroment/its-not-over-government-plans-for-the-worst-forced-evacuation-of-tokyo/

<b>Plans for Evacuation of Tokyo</b>

[dohboi]

http://peakoil.com/enviroment/nuclear-experts-fukushima-crisis-may-become-global-catastrophe/

Fukushima crisis may become ‘global catastrophe

With a must-watch video!

[dohboi]

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/asia-pacific/2012/05/20125563044129587.html

Japan shuts down last nuclear reactor:
Last of country's 54 nuclear reactors goes offline for maintenance, prompting celebrations from anti-nuclear protesters.

Hundreds of Japanese demonstrators have been marching to celebrate the last of the country's 54 nuclear reactors being switched off.

The crowd gathered at a Tokyo park on Saturday said that they were not concerned about government warnings that the reactor shutdowns will lead to electricity shortages.

One of three reactors at the Tomari nuclear plant, on the northern island of Hokkaido, has gone offline for routine maintenance checks, meaning that for the first time in decades there is not a single active nuclear reactor in the country.

[dohboi]

http://enenews.com/gundersen-move-south-equator-unit-4-fuel-pool-dry-lesson-like-cesium-all-800-nuclear-bombs-dropped-earth-except-all-video

Move south of equator if Unit 4 fuel pool goes dry

Like cesium from all 800 nuclear bombs ever dropped on Earth, except all at once

http://enenews.com/experts-charge-nrc-letting-fukushima-unit-4-threat-fester-because-acknowledging-call-question-safety-dozens-identically-designed-nuclear-plants

NRC letting threat fester at Unit 4 because acknowledging it would call into question safety at dozens of identically designed nuclear plants in US


http://www.alternet.org/health/155283/the_worst_yet_to_come_why_nuclear_experts_are_calling_fukushima_a_ticking_time-bomb?page=entire


The Worst Yet to Come? Why Nuclear Experts Are Calling Fukushima a Ticking Time-Bomb

Alarmed by the precarious nature of spent fuel storage during his recent tour of the Fukushima Daiichi site, Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Oregon, subsequently fired off letters to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Secretary of Energy Steven Chu, NRC Chairman Gregory Jaczko and Japanese ambassador to the U.S. Ichiro Fujisaki. He implored all parties to work together and with the international community to address this situation as swiftly as possible.

A press release issued after his visit said that Wyden, a senior member of the U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources who is highly experienced with nuclear waste storage issues, believes the situation is "worse than reported," with "spent fuel rods currently being stored in unsound structures immediately adjacent to the ocean." The press release also noted the structures' high susceptibility to earthquakes and that "the only protection from a future tsunami, Wyden observed, is a small, makeshift sea wall erected out of bags of rock."...

An even more catastrophic worst-case scenario follows that a fire in the pool at unit 4 could then spread, igniting the irradiated fuel throughout the nuclear site and releasing an amount of cesium-137 equaling a doomsday-like load, roughly 85 times more than the release at Chernobyl.

It's a scenario that would literally threaten Japan's annihilation and civilization at large, with widespread worldwide environmental radioactive contamination...

[dohboi]

http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/05/06/n-r-c-falls-short-on-financial-oversight-audit-says/

N.R.C. Skimps on Financial Oversight

The government does a poor job of estimating what it will cost to tear down a nuclear reactor, Congressional auditors say, and it may not be overseeing plant owners well enough to assure that they set aside enough money to do the job.

For a study it plans to issue on Monday, the Government Accountability Office scrutinized 12 of the nation’s 104 power reactors and found that for 5 of them, the decommissioning cost calculated by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission was 76 percent or less of what the reactor’s owner thought would be needed.

[kublikhan]

Japan is switching off its last working nuclear reactor, as part of the safety drive since the March 2011 tsunami triggered a meltdown at the Fukushima plant. The third reactor at the Tomari plant, in Hokkaido prefecture, is shutting down for routine maintenance. It leaves Japan without energy from atomic power for the first time for more than 40 years. Until last year, Japan got 30% of its power from nuclear energy.

Hundreds of people marched through Tokyo, waving banners to celebrate what they hope will be the end of nuclear power in Japan. Since the Fukushima disaster, all the country's reactors have been shut down for routine maintenance. They must withstand tests against earthquakes and tsunamis, and local authorities must give their consent in order for plants to restart. So far, none have.

Power shortages
Ministers have warned Japan faces a summer of power shortages. Businesses have warned of severe consequences for manufacturing if no nuclear plants are allowed to re-start. In the meantime, Japan has increased its fossil fuel imports, with electricity companies pressing old power plants into service. If the country can get through the steamy summer without blackouts, calls to make the nuclear shutdown permanent will get louder, our correspondent says.

A 20km (12m) exclusion zone remains in place around the plant.

Tomari shutdown leaves Japan without nuclear power

[BobInget]

"Japan is THE biggest energy story of the year".
http://www.consumerenergyreport.com/201 ... -tv-ep-21/

What traders are saying:
The diversion of liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers away from Europe and to higher-paying Asian customers, depleting UK gas .....(snip)

BUY - WINTER GAS WLL RISE

A potential shortage of LNG is the main reason why some traders recommend buying winter gas, as the world's top LNG importer Japan is unlikely to reduce its appetite for the super-cooled fuel. From this weekend all of its nuclear reactors will be off line.

"Japanese nukes are the number one factor," a UK gas trader at a large trading house said.

"If no Japanses nukes come back, (the UK) will be relying on storage and Russians for gas supply and then a price of 70 pence per therm I suspect will feel cheap, at least in the early part of Q4," he added.

Historic crude consumption; http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?country=jp

"Japan DOUBLES crude consumption, post nuke power turn-off"
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-1 ... ption.html

Mind, this was April. By July and August expect Japan's hydrocarbon imports to double again.

Japan has been getting most of its oil from the Mid East. Urged to cut Iranian imports they vowed to do so. Translation: Japan will need to bid up prices elsewhere, in an already tight market.
Iran's (crude) production has been cut. It has been reported Iran is storing crude it cannot sell in tankers parked in the Gulf.
1) 700,000 B/p/d is NOT coming out of Sudan or South Sudan. Exports zero. (civil war)
2) 300,000 B/p/d Syrian oil is not being exported. Civil war.
3) 200,000 B/p/d Nigerian oil is shut in by Shell. Crime. Conoco has put all its Nigerian assets for sale.
4) Iran's production is down to fewer then a million B/p/d
There's more, (Mexico, North Sea, etc) but this two million+ B/p/d ballances the two million barrels KSA swears they are extra pumping.

My reply to Japanese total nuke shutdown.