Here Comes The Double Dip Pt. 3

[OilFinder2]

Its in Europe right now.

The double dip isn't hiding---you are just incredibly ignorant about what is going on in the world. The EU has been struggling with a double dip recession for months now.

Right. Except that ... this thread was started to be about a double-dip in the US. If you read through part 1 there's little talk about Europe at all - except toward the end, by which time it became so obvious the US wasn't going into a double-dip, that certain posters in this thread felt they had to shift emphasis to the other side of the pond.

[Daniel_Plainview]

US Debt-to-GDP Soars to 101.5%

Reinhart, Rogoff and Reinhart identified 26 episodes of public debt overhang–where debt to GDP ratios exceed 90% of GDP–since 1800, and found that in 23 of these 26 episodes, individual countries experienced lower growth than the average of other years. Across all 26 episodes, growth is lower by an average of 1.2%. The average duration of debt overhang episodes was 23 years. In 11 of the 26 high debt overhang episodes, real interest rates were the same or lower than in other periods. The fact many countries are facing “quadruple debt overhang problems”—public, private, external, and pension–suggests the problem could in fact be worse than in the past. In addition, there is the likely possibility of significant “hidden debts”, especially public sector, which is a significant factor in many debt crises. The analysis, based on these cases and the 23 others identified, suggests that the long term risks of high debt are real.

[Plantagenet]

Its in Europe right now.
The double dip isn't hiding---

Right. Except that ...

Look. You made a bone-headed mistake. You wrongly claimed there was no double dip recession even though virtually every literate person on earth knows that Europe is in a double-dip recession. Please stop making excuses and just accept reality.

There is a double-dip recession hitting the EU right now. Just hope that it doesn't get worse and drag the USA down as well.

[pstarr]

Its in Europe right now.

The double dip isn't hiding---you are just incredibly ignorant about what is going on in the world. The EU has been struggling with a double dip recession for months now.

Right. Except that ... this thread was started to be about a double-dip in the US. If you read through part 1 there's little talk about Europe at all - except toward the end, by which time it became so obvious the US wasn't going into a double-dip, that certain posters in this thread felt they had to shift emphasis to the other side of the pond.

OF, It's one big happy world, driven into the Great Recession by guess what? You know. I know you know.

[OilFinder2]

Look. You made a bone-headed mistake. You wrongly claimed there was no double dip recession even though virtually every literate person on earth knows that Europe is in a double-dip recession.

Earth to Planetagent: Read Page #1, Post #1 of this thread. The post that started it all. It was an article by Denninger about the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. I've got important news for you: New York State in not in Europe!

I repeat: The Empire State is located in the United States, not on the other side of the Atlantic!

Here's a little map to help you out.



Thus, the geographical location in which this thread was intended for is not the geographical location currently undergoing a double-dip. Sorry!

And to emphasize the fact, the OP of the thread added his own narrative:

How much longer can this moribund economy continue to run on the fumes from the Fed's ineffective life-support measures? Of course, the Fed will try one last hail-Mary (QE3) ... but just like QE1 and QE2, it will only make matters worse.

"The Fed," of course, refers to the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve is not the central bank of Europe! Rather, it is the central bank of the United States. So, not only was Karl Denninger speaking of an imminent double-dip in the US, so was the OP who began this thread.

Try again!

[Lore]

I believe we have at least till after the election here in the US.

[Plantagenet]

I've got important news for you: New York State in not in Europe!

Was that ever in question? Why are you even posting such stupid drivel?

[OilFinder2]

Was that ever in question? Why are you even posting such stupid drivel?

Because you made the stupid accusation that I denied Europe was in a double-dip recession (which I never actually denied), but all of which is 100%, completely and totally irrelevant, because this was supposed to be a thread about the ...



Get it? Thread about the USofA. Not about Europe. If Europe is in a recession, that's off-topic about the economic status of the USA.

[Plantagenet]

you made the ... accusation that I denied Europe was in a double-dip recession (which I never actually denied)

You wrote: Helloooooo??? Double-dip where are you???

Are you hiding beneath my dining room rug?
Maybe there's one in a corner in my garage, hidden beneath that unused set of shelves that's been sitting there for two years.
Or maybe it's fallen down a storm drain down the road somewhere.

Wherever it is, it sure is hiding really good!

And I reminded you there was a double dip recession in the EU.

Try to be rational----the double dip recession isnt' hiding under your rug----its in plain sight in the EU. The EU is in serious economic difficulty and country after country there is falling into recession again.

If you want to claim that the recession in the EU is irrelevant to the world economy and means nothing for the future of the US economy, then feel free to take that position----but please don't post any more silliness about your inability to "find" the double dip recession.

[dsula]

Try to be rational----the double dip recession isnt' hiding under your rug----its in plain sight in the EU. The EU is in serious economic difficulty and country after country there is falling into recession again.

If you want to claim that the recession in the EU is irrelevant to the world economy and means nothing for the future of the US economy, then feel free to take that position----but please don't post any more silliness about your inability to "find" the double dip recession.

This thread is about the USA, there's another thread called 'eurozone economic something, something'.
Is it really that difficult?

[OilFinder2]

you made the ... accusation that I denied Europe was in a double-dip recession (which I never actually denied)

You wrote: Helloooooo??? Double-dip where are you???

Are you hiding beneath my dining room rug?
Maybe there's one in a corner in my garage, hidden beneath that unused set of shelves that's been sitting there for two years.
Or maybe it's fallen down a storm drain down the road somewhere.

Wherever it is, it sure is hiding really good!

And I reminded you there was a double dip recession in the EU.

But the post of mine in which I said that passage which you just quoted was a post about auto sales in the UNITED STATES!

[Daniel_Plainview]

Earth to Planetagent: Read Page #1, Post #1 of this thread. The post that started it all. It was an article by Denninger about the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. I've got important news for you: New York State in not in Europe!

What is wrong with you?

Simply put, there isn't a thread anywhere on this planet -- let alone on this forum -- that stays strictly within the confines of the opening post. The opening post merely plants the seeds for future discussions, but rarely is it so confining as to limit discourse within narrow strictures. Nowhere does my opening post impose restrictions on future discourse.

It's only natural and logical for threads to evolve, especially when the topics are so dynamic that the news changes EVERY MINUTE.

And for you to continue to say that the US is fully insulated from the rest of the world, and that a deepening recession in Europe is irrelevant to the US, is pure folly.

The only times the US economy has diverged from Europe's is during (1) massive bubble blowing during the Internet and housing bubbles; and (2) the very brief Bakken Bump combined with Bernanke's desperate bubble blowing bonanza.



The Eurozone recession is not only deeply relevant to the US, but it shows where the US is heading once the artificial adrenaline rushes cease to exert their influences.

[Armageddon]

US Factory Orders Post Biggest Decline Since March 2009

That March factory orders declined 1.5% was not very surprising: the market was expecting a decline of 1.6%. However, this is not good news as the prior February increase of 1.3% was revised lower to 1.1%, netting out as a negative two month change. Where this number was troubling is that this 2.6% swing brought the index to its biggest decline since March 2009 when the pumping of trillions started.

Ouch


ZH

[OilFinder2]

Simply put, there isn't a thread anywhere on this planet -- let alone on this forum -- that stays strictly within the confines of the opening post. The opening post merely plants the seeds for future discussions, but rarely is it so confining as to limit discourse within narrow strictures. Nowhere does my opening post impose restrictions on future discourse.

Translation: The double-dip in the US I was hoping for last fall has failed to materialize, so I reserve the right to change the subject if I choose.

[OilFinder2]

The Eurozone recession is not only deeply relevant to the US, but it shows where the US is heading once the artificial adrenaline rushes cease to exert their influences.

You automatically assume the US will eventually revert to Europe's current path on that chart. What you fail to take into account is the possibility Europe could revert to the US's current path on that chart.

[Lore]

The Eurozone recession is not only deeply relevant to the US, but it shows where the US is heading once the artificial adrenaline rushes cease to exert their influences.

You automatically assume the US will eventually revert to Europe's current path on that chart. What you fail to take into account is the possibility Europe could revert to the US's current path on that chart.

Why would that happen when all the data in Europe for the foreseeable future points in the downward direction? If you think our weak 2.2 growth rate is going to change things over there, then you need to do a little more research on global economics.

[OilFinder2]

Why would that happen when all the data in Europe for the foreseeable future points in the downward direction? If you think our weak 2.2 growth rate is going to change things over there, then you need to do a little more research on global economics.

It need not just be the US, there's also China, India, the whole developing world, etc. Things in China, for example, appear to be turning around after a weak spot, so imagine increased purchases by the Chinese and Indians of Mercedes and BMW's, and you get a turnaround in Germany, which will help other Eurozone nations, etc. In the meantime the US continues merrily along, and before long you get a turnaround in Eurozone measures and they begin, once again, following US industrial production and other figures upward.

[dolanbaker]

The chinese government is actively discouraging the purchase of foreign cars by government officials.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17284862
China may be about to issue an order that will have bureaucrats up and down the country quaking in their boots, or at least their luxury leather seats.

A public consultation ends on Friday on a proposal to stop officials spending taxpayers' money on foreign-branded cars, forcing them to buy Chinese models instead.

[AgentR11]

A great way to pivot from export-demand to domestic-demand within a partial command economy.

Probably not so good for the future of CO2 and friends, but, hey, a billion or so Chinese have the right to own cars, right?

[OilFinder2]

The chinese government is actively discouraging the purchase of foreign cars by government officials.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17284862
China may be about to issue an order that will have bureaucrats up and down the country quaking in their boots, or at least their luxury leather seats.

A public consultation ends on Friday on a proposal to stop officials spending taxpayers' money on foreign-branded cars, forcing them to buy Chinese models instead.

Uhhhh ... in case you didn't notice, that pertained only to government officials.