Here Comes The Double Dip Pt. 3

[pstarr]

You don't get me. The third world is doing what it has done. The first world at 2.3 children per woman is what I am on about. Any immediacy in die-off in the 3rd world will rapidly be offset by panic breeding in ex-first world.

It's one world now (kumbaya everyone!) We now depend on strategic minerals, petroleum, labor, fiber, food, fish, and timber imported from 3rd world countries. imported into the US. They starve. We starve.

There comes a time when we heed a certain call
When the world must come together as one
There are people dying
And its time to lend a hand to life
The greatest gift of all

We can't go on pretending day by day
That someone, somehow will soon make a change
We are all a part of Gods great big family
And the truth, you know,
Love is all we need

[Chorus]
We are the world, we are the children
We are the ones who make a brighter day
So lets start giving
There's a choice we're making
We're saving our own lives
Its true we'll make a better day
Just you and me

Send them your heart so they'll know that someone cares
And their lives will be stronger and free
As God has shown us by turning stones to bread
So we all must lend a helping hand

[Chorus]

When you're down and out, there seems no hope at all
But if you just believe there's no way we can fall
Let us realize that a change can only come
When we stand together as one

[eXpat]

Global Systemic Risk At 3 Month Highs

In a little over a month, the risk of the 30 most systemically important global banks has jumped an impressive 45%. At 235bps, the FSB30 stands just shy of the peak levels that were seen in the initial March 2009 crisis moment - though remains below Q4 2011 peak crisis levels. Perhaps, despite all the protestations of 'zee stabilitee', self-sustaining record-profit-margin-driven recovery, and Chinese soft-landing, the vicious circles of austerity in Europe (and perhaps the US) and financials squandering their newly-found liquidity (and certainly not capital) is becoming too large to ignore?

What is intriguing is how absolutely end-of-the-world the situation felt heading into Q1 2009 and yet - with banks' risk considerably higher now, we have become so much more 'used' to this state of chaos that our anchoring bias says - all is well?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/global-systemic-risk-3-month-highs

[pstarr]

there is no recovery. there never was. this is the last recession. you can take that prognostication to the bank

[SeaGypsy]

Education statistics are heavily linked to overall wealth (reformatted oil) Without education, a country does not generate enough value to have surplus for a decent education system. It is currently impossible to identify a highly educated country with high birth rates. People have more children when the children they have already have high mortality. As peak oil bites, education/ wealth factors will have less restrictive influence IMO.

[TheAntiDoomer]

there is no recovery. there never was. this is the last recession. you can take that prognostication to the bank

Pstarr. If I was taking one of your predictions to the bank it would be classified as a junk bond.

[ralfy]

Banks that took junk and classified them as the opposite.

[pstarr]

there is no recovery. there never was. this is the last recession. you can take that prognostication to the bank

Pstarr. If I was taking one of your predictions to the bank it would be classified as a junk bond.

cute. got evidence? otherwise stfu.

[AdTheNad]

Fracking Production Depletes 60-80% after 1st year -- Total Joke ! ! !

This means new wells must constantly be drilled to avoid production for a whole area dropping off very quickly.

That's job security and opportuniy for many an unemployed or underemployed. Not a bad thing.

You ever hear of the broken window fallacy?

[OilFinder2]

New-home sales show a winter glow

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- While sales of new homes slowed in March, government figures for the previous two months were revised sharply higher Tuesday, pointing to a solid winter rebound in the housing market.

The Census Bureau reported that sales of new homes in the month came in at an annual pace of 328,000 when adjusted for the season. That was down 7.1% from the 353,000 sales pace in February -- but that February figure was revised up by 40,000 from the reading issued last month.

The improvement was reflected by the year-over-year data, which showed a 7.5% increase in March.

January new-home sales were also revised higher by 11,000, to a 329,000 annual rate.

The long-battered housing market has been showing signs of recovery so far this year, helped by low prices, record low mortgage rates and some pick-up in hiring that has lowered the unemployment rate. It is now cheaper to buy a home than rent in much of the country.

[...]

[OilFinder2]

RICHMOND FED BLOWS PAST EXPECTATIONS, Jumps To 14

Manufacturing in the Fifth Federal District blew past expectations in April, jumping to a reading of 14 from a reading of 7 in March, registering substantively stronger activity during the month.

Economists polled by Bloomberg had forecast the key index to decline to 6. Readings above zero indicate expansion.

All three components of the employment sub-index logged increases, including the wages, length of work week, and number of employees metrics.

"Hiring activity strengthened at District plants in April," the Federal Reserve said in its report. "The manufacturing employment index moved up four points to end at 10, and the average workweek indicator edged up one point to 3. The wage index added three points to 14."

Expectations for the future also remained bright, with the new shipments sub-index moving to 28 from 26, and the new orders sub-index declining slightly to 29.

"Looking ahead, manufacturers' optimism remained in place in April," the Fed said. "Contacts at more firms anticipated that shipments, new orders, backlogs, capacity utilization, and capital expenditures would continue to grow at a solid pace in the months ahead."

[Lore]

Education statistics are heavily linked to overall wealth (reformatted oil) Without education, a country does not generate enough value to have surplus for a decent education system. It is currently impossible to identify a highly educated country with high birth rates. People have more children when the children they have already have high mortality. As peak oil bites, education/ wealth factors will have less restrictive influence IMO.

This all depends on your long term view of the population crash. If it is a series of dips, slowly spiraling downward, which is what I think will happen, or a relatively sudden global event.

[Daniel_Plainview]

Fracking Production Depletes 60-80% after 1st year -- Total Joke ! ! !

This means new wells must constantly be drilled to avoid production for a whole area dropping off very quickly.

That's job security and opportuniy for many an unemployed or underemployed. Not a bad thing.

You ever hear of the broken window fallacy?

lol. One wonders whether Cornies also find value in highly destructive hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes, etc. ... namely, because of all the jobs (and GDP) that are created by the cleanup.

It's clear that the Cornies love deficit spending and money printing because the benefits are obvious today (GDP growth), while the costs are spread among future generations.

They love bailouts because of the bump in GDP.

They love student loan debt because of the GDP bump.

They love when the govt pays out unemployment and food-stamps ... because of the GDP bump.

They love asset bubbles, housing bubbles, debt bubbles, education bubbles, stock-mkt bubbles, etc ... because bubbles create a short-term boost in GDP, despite the tragic and catastrophic consequences that transpire when the bubble pops.

Likewise, they love fracking even though 60-80% of the wells are depleted after JUST ONE YEAR, and even though its an ecological disaster. Why? Because the short-term bump in GDP makes it worth it.

They love part-time/temp jobs because of the way they mask the true state of joblessness.

Likewise, they love fracking because of the way it conceals the true state of crude oil depletion.

In short, Cornies embody basically everything that defeats a sustainable, healthy, long-term economy. They exalt fantasy over reality; short-term over long-term; deception over truth.

[eXpat]

In short, Cornies embody basically everything that defeats a sustainable, healthy, long-term economy. They exalt fantasy over reality; short-term over long-term; deception over truth.

I nominate that as the member quote of the month

[OilFinder2]

Awwwwwww, poor doomers are getting really frustrated. To the doomers, anything that isn't doomer-y seems to automatically get labeled as a "bubble."

It's earnings season, and today a bunch of manufacturers reported their results. And they sez ...

Manufacturers Grow as US Demand Offsets Europe

Big U.S. manufacturers continued a wave of strong earnings growth, with United Technologies, 3M, Illinois Tool Works and Parker-Hannifin posting results that topped Wall Street forecasts.

Recovering demand at home helped all four companies offset a very weak European economy and slowing growth in China, which until recently had been a reliable source of rapid growth for big U.S. companies.

3M, ITW and Parker-Hannifin all raised their full-year profit forecasts on Tuesday, while United Tech held its outlook steady, citing concerns about an uneven global economy.

"We have seen some encouraging signs in the United States over the last several months," said United Tech Chief Financial Officer Greg Hayes, noting that sales of Carrier air conditioners had picked up since mid-March.

"Europe remains awful," Hayes told reporters. "The markets there for commercial construction have really been anemic and continue to be."

Fellow blue-chip 3M, which makes products ranging from Post-It notes to films used in flat-screen televisions, sounded a brighter note.

"We are off to a very good start in 2012," said Inge Thulin, who in February became 3M's chief executive, in a statement.

The company saw growth in the Americas, stabilizing European sales and weakness in Asia, primarily in China, Japan and at the company's unit that sells components to consumer electronics makers, noted BernsteinResearch analyst Steven Winoker.

"In his first reporting quarter as CEO, Inge Thulin and the company managed to offset the headwinds," Winoker said.

[...]

[Armageddon]

Here's that robust new housing report

[Quinny]

+++1

In short, Cornies embody basically everything that defeats a sustainable, healthy, long-term economy. They exalt fantasy over reality; short-term over long-term; deception over truth.

I nominate that as the member quote of the month

[OilFinder2]

They love asset bubbles, housing bubbles, debt bubbles, education bubbles, stock-mkt bubbles, etc ... because bubbles create a short-term boost in GDP, despite the tragic and catastrophic consequences that transpire when the bubble pops.

Speaking of bubbles, I was really starting to think Apple was looking bubbly, but then they just came out with their Q1 earnings and - voila! - expectations were crushed once again. No doubt this is because of QE and ZIRP and Obama's stimulus, as are all signs of economic health these days. Oh yeah and I'm sure this is yet another sign that 2012 is the last year of capitalism.


Apple Earnings Blow Past Expectations; Shares Rise

Apple reported quarterly earnings and revenue that beat Wall Street's expectations on Tuesday, sending its shares higher in extended-hours trading.

After the earnings announcement, the technology giant's shares rose 4 percent in trading after the closing bell.

In the past two weeks, Apple stock has dropped 12 percent, falling into correction territory, after rallying 75 percent from late November to a closing high of $636.23 on April 9.

The company posted fiscal second-quarter earnings excluding items of $12.30 per share, up from $6.40 a share in the year-earlier period.

Net income was $11.6 billion, or $12.30 per share, up from $6 billion, or $6.40 per share, a year ago.

Revenue shot up 59 percent to $39.2 billion from $24.67 billion a year ago.

Analysts had expected the company to report earnings excluding items of $10.04 a share on $36.81 billion in revenue, according to a consensus estimate from Thomson Reuters.

[...]

[ralfy]

One article describes the current phenomenon as profits for corporations but unemployment and high oil and food prices for most, with the former driven by financial speculation that is ironically leading to the latter.

Given that, one should expect mostly good news related to corporate earnings, stock prices, consumer spending, and fudged data concerning employment, all of which were happening even after the first dip.

[ralfy]

Related, an older article:

"A Tale of Two Depressions"

http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/3421

[dolanbaker]

UK economy in double-dip recession
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17836624
The UK economy has returned to recession, after shrinking by 0.2% in the first three months of 2012.

A sharp fall in construction output was behind the surprise contraction, the Office for National Statistics said.

A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction. The economy shrank by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2011.

Wednesday's figure is an early estimate and is subject to at least two further revisions in the coming months.

The ONS said output of the production industries decreased by 0.4%, construction decreased by 3%, and output of the service sector increased by 0.1%.

Dipping!!