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The Drought Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Discussions related to the direct environmental impacts of energy exploitation, development and use including climate change.

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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 14 Apr 2012, 18:29:29

http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2012/04/colorado-entering-worst-drought-in-250.html

Colorado entering worst drought in 250 years – Water supplies for fire suppression to get priority


http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2012/04/western-us-prepares-for-dangerous-fire.html

Western U.S. prepares for dangerous fire season – ‘Millions of acres could burn’



http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2012/04/glance-at-fire-season-prospects-for-us.html

A glance at fire season prospects for U.S. West – ‘Fire season is just about year-round now’
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 16 Apr 2012, 17:24:55

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/apr/16/drought-farm-water-desperation


Drought causing desperation on farms

'Farmers must plan for a future with much less water'


armers are facing financial ruin because of the lack of water, with many forced to change their planned crops for others that require less water. "People are having to stop growing crops that use a lot of water, like potatoes or salad crops. If farmers are in contracts and can't supply the produce they can be hit with financial penalties and there are farmers facing that throughout the country."

Although the public are aware of the drought, they are disconnected from the stark situation facing many farmers who rely heavily on water for their livelihoods, he said. "It's been in the news enough for people to be aware of a hose-pipe ban, but I doubt very much people realise what this means for farmers," he said. "Not being able to wash your car or your patio is a an inconvenience, but when people are paying an extra 50p for their lettuce, or potatoes drop in quality and become more expensive, then it will hit home," he said.

The drought may put farmers – many of whom are already struggling to make ends meet – out of business. Small farmers, those unable to invest in water "harvesting" or changing their crops, are likely to give over the running of their land to bigger farms, he believes. "Farming has been getting more difficult for years," he said. "This will be the straw that broke the camel's back."
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby M_B_S » Tue 17 Apr 2012, 02:05:14

Spain and Portugal : Cattles and sheeps are dying! No water no green gras

http://www.theolivepress.es/spain-news/ ... -complain/

It hardly rained at all between last October and April 2012. Normally the rains in November and December fill the streams, rivers and reservoirs, which keep the countryside green in spring as they gradually dry out. Cattle and sheep farmers, olive oil producers, orchard owners and a host of other people, plants and animals depend on the winter rain.If you happened to be walking in the countryside lately, you may have noticed a surprisingly increased number of dead cattle and sheep. I have consulted a local large animal vet on this and she confirmed that it was due to lack of grass on the pastures. The livestock in our area depends largely on natural foods and artificial feed is only used as supplement. This is also true in case of the free-range black Iberian pigs which love to root in the green grass in spring and munch on acorns later in the year.

Image
An exhausted cow trying to push out her dead calf. Photo: Chris Mees

*******************************

Mass dying is on the way.....

Climate Change ?

Here is the problem........

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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby M_B_S » Thu 19 Apr 2012, 01:46:36

An explanation of the catastrophic drought in UK is a weaker gulf stream ?!
Image

Source:

http://rads.tudelft.nl/gulfstream/gif/anim_7_long.gif

http://rads.tudelft.nl/gulfstream/
In my view the data set shows a weaker velocity in 2010 - 2012 to 2003-2010

It explanes the two catastrophic dry winter in UK 2010/11 and 2011/2012 :idea:

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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 19 Apr 2012, 18:05:46

Would that explain the cold winters, too?
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby M_B_S » Tue 24 Apr 2012, 01:15:24

dohboi

Yes! => USA Pentagon "Yoda" report.
**********
http://www.mndaily.com/2012/04/23/droug ... ction-cows

Drought limits food production for cows
Almost 65 percent of the state is in a “moderate drought.”
“We need a big corn crop, and we need a good hay crop, and when we have drought, that really could be an economic challenge for cattle producers,” said Jim Paulson, a University of Minnesota Extension dairy educator.....
*******************************

Climate Change?! Here is the problem.

Tomorrow morning:

Mum: Darling the milk in our super market is soooo expensiv, you have to drive less with our SUV or our son have no milk for corn flakes!

Dad: Darling we do not need milk, the corn is gone too so i can go on and drive my sweet SUV.
8O

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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby AgentR11 » Tue 24 Apr 2012, 09:32:44

mbs wrote:Mum: Darling the milk in our super market is soooo expensiv, you have to drive less with our SUV or our son have no milk for corn flakes!
Dad: Darling we do not need milk, the corn is gone too so i can go on and drive my sweet SUV.


Later... Dad stops at the sporting goods store...

Friend: Dang! You should check out the new X reel, drag is smooth as silk even with big redfish slam'in on it. I'm riding to the bay Saturday to baptize mine!

Dad: Errr, I spent all my fun money on gas to come here.

Friend: Ah. Well, me and the redfish will be thinkin of you. Enjoy washing the Canyonaro..

Dad: Grrr.

Friend waves back as he rides off on his Fuji touring bike...

** sorry, couldn't resist. It was to nice a setup.
Yes we are, as we are,
And so shall we remain,
Until the end.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby PeakOiler » Thu 03 May 2012, 18:48:11

Deleted. Double post.
Last edited by PeakOiler on Thu 03 May 2012, 18:55:54, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby PeakOiler » Thu 03 May 2012, 18:53:58

Today I looked at the Texas, US Drought Monitor Map, and noticed this county is creeping back into Severe drought conditions. I wasn't surprised seeing how Wunderground has only reported 0.02" of rain at Burnet in the last 43 days.

I clicked on the Tabular Statistics tab at http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DM_state.htm?TX,S,
copied and pasted a couple years data into Excel and made this chart:

Image

Ouch.

I'm now very concerned about those two upticks in the D1-D4 (Moderate) and D2-D4 (Severe) lines in the last week. There is a 20% chance of scattered T-storms Saturday and a 20% chance Monday, but there's a good chance the drought gets worse than better in the near future. This has truly been one of the longest droughts ever as well as it's severity!
:|
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 07 May 2012, 13:40:42

http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2012/05/more-rainmaking-launched-as-drought.html

drought bites North Thailand after record floods

Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra presided over a meeting yesterday on water policies to speedily distribute water and launch the rainmaking operations and declared the Mae Wong Dam in Nakhon Sawan was necessary.

Kitti Thupsri, technical specialist at the Phitsanulok rainmaking operation centre, said yesterday that since March the centre - covering seven lower northern provinces - had dispatched 137 rainmaking flights using 150 tonnes of chemicals which induced 32 days of rain and helped many farmers.


This is how it will be going over more and more of the world--extreme, even un-precedented flooding alternating with devastating, long-term drought or just drying up. Few ecosystems can withstand such extreme climate whiplash for long.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 11 May 2012, 21:08:43

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

Significant reductions in the severity of drought conditions in TX over the last two weeks. Some relief up here in MN, too, but we have now been in some stage of drying/drought for so long that we have finally earned our "L" for long term drought. Recent rains may move us out of this designation, though.

But over all, a huge part of the country is covered by some shade--is in some stage of drying or drought. I can't see any state besides Ohio and Alaska that doesn't have at least a bit of yellow on it.

How are things looking in your neck of the woods lately?
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby PeakOiler » Sun 13 May 2012, 15:21:26

dohboi wrote:http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

How are things looking in your neck of the woods lately?


The LCRA's Google Map snapshot on 05/13/12 of the area lake levels and watersheds shows:

Image

See http://www.lcra.org/

Lake Buchanan is down 16.57 feet and Lake Travis is down 30.45 feet from their monthly averages. :cry:

Drought is not over despite recent rains


May brought the rain back to Central Texas, and not a minute too soon. Lake Travis is expected to rise a couple of feet, but don’t think that we’re out of the drought just yet. There’s still a lot of catching up to do.


Rain showers in the early part of 2012 helped make Central Texas green again, but the drought that depleted the Highland Lakes last year is far from over. With the weather heating up again, LCRA encourages Central Texans to continue to use water as wisely as possible.


Most of my rainwater collection tanks are full to near-full. :) The recent storm's winds knocked about a hundred immature peaches off the trees, but hundreds still remain. Nature takes her share. The remaining peaches should get larger in their last 3-4 weeks of maturity after Nature's thinning.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby M_B_S » Mon 14 May 2012, 03:45:19

http://news.yahoo.com/worst-drought-50- ... 16363.html

Worst drought in 50 years takes toll in northern Brazil

Severe drought gripping northeastern Brazil -- the worst in a half-century -- is taking its toll on more than 1,100 towns, even triggering fighting in rural areas, local media reported Sunday.

An average of one person a day is being killed in "water wars" in rural areas, while scores of animals are wasting away before perishing, the O Globo newspaper reported over the weekend.
***************

It is still the beginning of the 21st century climate catastrophe...

Next year we hit 400ppm CO2 in atmosphere = Miocene Epoche

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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 15 May 2012, 20:18:52

http://news.opb.org/article/a_tour_of_drought_as_it_unfolds_across_the_u.s/

A Tour Of Drought As It Unfolds Across The U.S.

Last year at this time, all eyes were on Texas, where drought conditions were intensifying into what became that state’s worst single year drought on record, causing nearly $8 billion in economic losses. Recently, though, Texas has gone from famine to feast in the precipitation department, and drought concerns for the upcoming summer are focused farther to the west, as drought tightens its grip across a broad swath of the interior West and Southwest...

In addition to the West, drought conditions are also prevalent in the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and parts of the Northeast as well, along with a small pocket in the Upper Midwest. In all, 56 percent of the Lower 48 states were experiencing drought conditions as of May 8, almost twice the area compared to last year at this time, according to data from the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Fortunately, much of the West had such bountiful winter precipitation last year that the risk of water supply disruptions are rather low in most areas, but that could change if the current weather pattern lasts much longer. Water officials in Colorado, for example, have begun urging residents to start conserving water in case the dry spell continues...
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 16 May 2012, 15:43:33

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/05/16/485047/the-wettest-drought-on-record-torrential-rain-cant-bring-england-out-of-drought/

The Wettest Drought On Record: Torrential Rain Can’t Bring Much Of England Out Of ‘Exceptional’ Dry Conditions

Even with the wettest April on record, some areas of England are still facing “exceptional” drought conditions. After two years of dry winters — including the fifth-driest March — the ground hasn’t been able to soak up the heavy rainfall that hit in April.

The situation in the country illustrates the cruel reality of “rollercoaster” extreme weather — a problem that will only be exacerbated by accumulating heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere. Recent research also finds that the loss of Arctic ice favors extreme, prolonged weather events “such as drought, flooding, cold spells and heat waves.”
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 18 May 2012, 08:28:12

http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2012/05/unsustainable-water-use-threatens.html

Unsustainable water use threatens agriculture, business, and populations in China, India, Pakistan, South Africa, and U.S.: global study

he viability of water supplies throughout key regions of China, India, Pakistan, South Africa and the US are under threat from unsustainable domestic, agricultural, and industrial demands, according to a new study that maps water use down to 10km² worldwide.

The growth economies of China and India, and the world’s largest economy USA are identified by risk analysis company Maplecroft, in its newly released Water Stress Index, as having vast geographical regions and sector areas where unsustainable water use is outstripping supply. Maplecroft states that the situation so serious, it has the potential to limit economic growth by constraining business activities, as well as hampering agricultural outputs. Resulting reductions in crop harvests in these countries will also negatively impact local food supplies and global food prices, while the socio-economic impacts of water shortages, especially in India and China, have the potential to create unrest and affect stability, as populations and business compete for dwindling supplies.


Peak water?

Note that most of the top 10 countries in extreme risk of water shortage are also major oil and gas exporters. As they reach peak export (and many are already there or near there), they will not only to buy food for their greatly exploded populations, but even supplying them with water will become impossible.

This will not end well.


Meanwhile, the drought monitor update for this week is out:

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

Not much change from last week. Things are a bit less severe in west Texas and a couple other places. VT is now no longer abnormally dry. Things are getting a bit worse in GA. This should be the time of year when a lot of place get recharged with rain. But pretty much every state still has some area that is at least abnormally dry.

Note that pretty much all of the west south of Oregon/Idaho/Wyoming is in or slipping into long-term drought. This is not likely to ever change. We are into the great drying, which will likely only get more and more intense. The southwest and southeast seem to be the ground zero for this change in the US.

Anyone know what the current situation in Mexico is?
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 18 May 2012, 20:02:07

An actual national turn away from insane consumption and toward quiet meditation and prayer is actually the best (though vanishingly distant) hope, as far as I can see. Not prayer for wish fulfillment, but prayer apologizing for our criminal treatment of the planet and the future.

Meanwhile, the drought news just keeps coming in from all over:

http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2012/05/thai-drought-could-drive-up-global.html

Thai drought could drive up global sugar prices

Drought could result in a loss of 20 million to 30 million tonnes of sugar-cane output next year if the rainy season is not well underway by July and August, warned the Thailand Society of Sugar Cane Technologists.

If that happens, the global price of sugar could increase next year, as Thailand is one of the world's three largest suppliers of the commodity.


This is, of course, the very country that suffered under a biblical, seemingly never-ending flood last year. This seems to be the pattern more and more--deluge followed by drought or vice versa, very much what Mark Lynas talks about in his book on projected consequences of various degrees of warming, Six Degrees.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 20 May 2012, 00:44:48

http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2012/05/brazils-president-faces-defining.html

Brazil’s president faces defining decision on bill removing rainforest protection

Why is this relevant in a drought thread, you ask?

As pointed out above, regions create their own climate. When humans decide that an entire eco-system can be sacrificed to the great god of industrial capitalism, it quickly becomes a drought-stricken waste land. Most of the carbon in rain forests is tied up in the forests itself. Take away the forest, and the land quickly becomes desert. Rain patterns change without a vast forest to reinforce local humidity levels, and more and more of the region becomes waste.

We are watching as millennia-old heritages blow away in the wind, never to be seen again.

What a pathetic excuse for a species we have turned out to be.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 22 May 2012, 14:14:06

Just ran into this oldish post by Stuart Staniford. Apologies if it has already been posted:

http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2012/01/another-terrifying-drought-paper.html

Another Terrifying Drought Paper

As the press release puts it:

"These models showed that the normal state for much of the continental United States and Mexico in the mid- to late-21st century would be conditions considered severe to extreme drought by today’s standards."

Holy shit.


It looks to me as if we are already moving in that direction. As with the Arctic ice extent, predictions of conditions thought to take decades to centuries seem to be happening in years--right before our eyes.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 26 May 2012, 09:06:05

The latest Drought Monitor update is in, and it looks like the dry areas of the SW, SE and Northern Midwest have all hooked up. So now you can walk across the country in pretty much any direction and not step foot on land that isn't some level of abnormal drying or drought. It's easier now to describe where drought or drying isn't that where it is.

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

From the text below the drought map:

“flash drought” conditions quickly worsened across the remainder of the Midwest, portions of the central and southeastern Plains, and the Mid-South. The term “flash drought” describes a period of short-term dryness, often accompanied by above-normal temperatures, which has an adverse impact on crops and pastures.


I hadn't heard that term before, but I have seen it. It is particularly bad when winds are high. I've seen my entire garden turn crisp in two days of such a flash drought (I had to be out of town, so couldn't keep it watered).
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