Login



Peak Oil is You


Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)


THE Iran Thread pt 4 (merged)

Discussions related to the global politics of energy use and acquisition.

Re: THE Iran Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby eXpat » Sat 14 Apr 2012, 22:14:02

dissident wrote:
eXpat wrote:Video: Henry Kissinger 'We should ignore intelligence and assume Iran wants nukes'
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gFMHJh-DnjU


The good old boy should sign up for the front! In the perfect world all the movers and shakers would put their money where their mouths are and take responsibility for their war mongering.

Well, to sign up for the front would go against his values and beliefs about peace and love [smilie=5grouphug.gif] , after all, good old Kissinger won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1973... :lol: :twisted:
"I learned long ago, never to wrestle with a pig. You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it."
George Bernard Shaw

You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.” Ayn Rand
User avatar
eXpat
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3803
Joined: Thu 08 Jun 2006, 02:00:00

Re: THE Iran Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby eXpat » Sun 15 Apr 2012, 21:41:44

Beating the drums of war:
Israeli TV report shows air force gearing-up for Iran attack, says moment of truth is near
‘IAF expects losses, and knows it can’t destroy entire Iranian program’
A major Israel TV station on Sunday night broadcast a detailed report on how Israel will go about attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities in the event that diplomacy and sanctions fail and Israel decides to carry out a military strike.

The report, screened on the main evening news of Channel 10, was remarkable both in terms of the access granted to the reporter, who said he had spent weeks with the pilots and other personnel he interviewed, and in the fact that his assessments on a strike were cleared by the military censor.

No order to strike is likely to be given before the P5+1 talks with Iran resume in May, the reporter, Alon Ben-David, said. “But the coming summer will not only be hot but tense.”

In the event that negotiations fail and the order is given for Israel to carry out an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, “dozens if not more planes” will take part in the mission: attack and escort jets, tankers for mid-air refueling, electronic warfare planes and rescue helicopters, the report said.

Ben-David said the Israel Air Force “does not have the capacity to destroy the entire Iranian program.” There will be no replication of the decisive strikes on Iraq’s Osirak reactor in 1981 or on Syria in 2007, he said. “The result won’t be definitive.” But, a pilot quoted in the report said, the IAF will have to ensure that it emerges with the necessary result, with “a short and professional” assault.

Ben-David said that if negotiations break down, and Iran moves key parts of its nuclear program underground to its Qom facility, the IAF “is likely to get the order and to set out on the long journey to Iran.”

“Years of preparations are likely to come to realization,” he said, adding that “the moment of truth is near.”

Ben-David interviewed several squadron leaders, pilots and other officers. He noted that some of the IAF personnel, “it is likely, will not return from the mission.” An officer named Gilad said it would be “naive” to think there would be no losses.

http://www.timesofisrael.com/iaf-plans-for-iran-attack/
"I learned long ago, never to wrestle with a pig. You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it."
George Bernard Shaw

You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.” Ayn Rand
User avatar
eXpat
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3803
Joined: Thu 08 Jun 2006, 02:00:00

Re: THE Iran Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby AgentR11 » Mon 16 Apr 2012, 12:34:37

That's an interesting preemptive "cards on the table" moment. Prior action was nixed by Obama leaking details ahead of time, thus damaging a plan that assumed some degree of surprise. Now Israel is saying, "we're coming, no surprises, no sneaking, stop us if you can. Force on Force." Like that Russian guy in 2012 would say, "Not Good..."

Will be pretty hard to stop this one with words.

From Iran's perspective, do you attempt to protect your challenging hardware by moving it, and have a fight with Israel, or do you try and avoid the fight but leave the hardware vulnerable... If you're a Mullah trying to set the stage for the Mahdi, do you get the same answer?

"Not Good" keeps ringing in my head.
Yes we are, as we are,
And so shall we remain,
Until the end.
User avatar
AgentR11
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3650
Joined: Tue 22 Mar 2011, 08:15:51
Location: East Texas

Re: THE Iran Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby threadbear » Mon 16 Apr 2012, 17:52:53

Israel is in for the surprise of its life if it attacks Iran. Both Israel and the U.S have their best luck when picking fights with the vulnerable. Iran will be a different story. So good luck to both of them, they're going to need it!
User avatar
threadbear
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7572
Joined: Sat 22 Jan 2005, 03:00:00

Re: THE Iran Thread pt 4 (merged)

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Tue 12 Mar 2013, 12:47:11

Pakistan, Iran defy US Sanctions to Inaugurate Gas Pipeline
Iran’s president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Pakistani president Asaf Ali Zardari on Monday inaugurated a gas pipeline that will supply Pakistani cities with Iranian natural gas.
dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2013\03\12\story_12-3-2013_pg1_1
The pipeline has been largely completed on the Iranian side, but Pakistan had problems getting the international financing to complete its leg, which will cost $1.5 billion. Iran is loaning Pakistan $500 million, and Pakistan is putting up the other billion from its own resources. They plan to complete the project by the end of 2014.

The United States has threatened unilateral third-party sanctions against companies and countries initiating big economic enterprises with Iran. The Pakistani stock market lost a few points on fears that the US Department of the Treasury will come after Pakistan for its defiance.

Pakistan, a country of 180 million, is the sixth largest in the world and it faces a severe energy crisis. It has few hydrocarbons of its own. It has enormous potential for solar and wind, but has not developed alternative energy sources– and lacks both the investment capital and the know-how to make quick strides in that area. The energy crisis is so bad that major urban populations suffer with frequent electricity outages (try running a factory that way) and brown-outs. In the punishing summers, the brown-outs or ‘load shedding’ can be deadly to certain populations, including the elderly and infirm. There have actually been electricity riots in large cities such as Lahore.
"Western meds aren't working any more"
-Dmitry Orlov
User avatar
Keith_McClary
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 4964
Joined: Wed 21 Jul 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Suburban tar sands

A new Iranian future???

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 15 Jun 2013, 11:37:42

The so called reformist has won the election in Iran. Not just won but by a shocking margin in the eyes of the BBC. He campaigned on opening discussions with the west on the nuclear issue. Of course, the religious rulers still have much control. Much too early to speculate how this will affect the oil embargo and future hydrocarbon developments in Iran. But we shouldn’t let that stop us. I'll start:

In particular I wonder how China will fare. They supposedly complied with the embargo eventually but seem to have maintained a good relationship with Iran. Add that to their positive relationships with the KSA and Iraq they appear to be getting more than a just good foothold in the ME but a dominant position.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 4936
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: A new Iranian future???

Unread postby John_A » Sat 15 Jun 2013, 12:12:39

Politics are nice. But how will a non-embargoed Iran effect world oil prices? Could be yet another round of downward based yoyoing if they get back into a development of resource mode rather than a head above water mode. Them, a resurgent Iraq, and the US piling on new supplies sure could be interesting for future prices. Not necessarily a good thing I might add, one of the the beauties of POD is that implies a nice, consistent, long term pressure to continue the transition moving. Do to prices what the Saudis did in 1986 and we'll be back to inventing things to burn crude ridiculously (last time it was the modern SUV).
45ACP: For when you want to send the very best.
John_A
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 1193
Joined: Sat 25 Jun 2011, 20:16:36

Re: A new Iranian future???

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 15 Jun 2013, 13:53:31

The Mullahs pre-screened all the candidates. Only Islamist candidates that conformed to the views of the Mullahs who run Iran were allowed to run.

The whole idea that this guy is a reformer or is pro-western or is going to end the Iranian nuclear weapons program is silly.

Image
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 15026
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: A new Iranian future???

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 15 Jun 2013, 17:58:52

From a post-peak perspective, this is a non story (with no disrespect intended, Rock :) ).

ImageYes. The above chart does not represent Iran's oil production history, rather it is a testament to the nature and consequence of a failing oil regime . . . things always go bad. So Iran has/will continue to be in the same predicament that no democracy can alleviate. Neither freedom nor Christianity will rescue the country from this:

Image
Yikes!
pstarr
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 16829
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: A new Iranian future???

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Sat 15 Jun 2013, 19:04:49

Plantagenet wrote:The Mullahs pre-screened all the candidates. Only Islamist candidates that conformed to the views of the Mullahs who run Iran were allowed to run.

For the Supreme Leader, this election has been a success.

Not because his favoured candidate won - in fact we don't know officially who he actually wanted to be president. But because there have been celebrations on the streets and not protests - the likes of which followed the election results four years ago.

And because a 'moderate' won, the election won't be criticised by the outside world as being un-democratic.
http://news.sky.com/story/1104165/iran- ... ver-choice



Many Libyan candidates were also disqualified but that wasn't an issue in the "outside world".
"Western meds aren't working any more"
-Dmitry Orlov
User avatar
Keith_McClary
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 4964
Joined: Wed 21 Jul 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Suburban tar sands

Re: A new Iranian future???

Unread postby EdwinSm » Sun 16 Jun 2013, 05:20:21

I would expect some small changes, but not a lot:

But although Mr Rouhani has pledged greater engagement with Western powers, correspondents warn that power remains in the hands of the ruling clerics and the Revolutionary Guard.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22925119
EdwinSm
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 102
Joined: Thu 07 Jun 2012, 03:23:59

Re: A new Iranian future???

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Sun 16 Jun 2013, 09:30:08

Image

Will the new president continue to hang- gays, apostates etc?
SeaGypsy
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 5839
Joined: Wed 04 Feb 2009, 03:00:00

Re: A new Iranian future???

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Sun 16 Jun 2013, 09:56:45

SeaGypsy wrote:Will the new president continue to hang- gays, apostates etc?
Yeah, just like our Saudi buddies.

But the Saudis don't have rigged elections, so that's OK.
"Western meds aren't working any more"
-Dmitry Orlov
User avatar
Keith_McClary
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 4964
Joined: Wed 21 Jul 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Suburban tar sands

Re: A new Iranian future???

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 16 Jun 2013, 13:18:51

Keith – You mean out allies and close friends…the rulers of the KSA? Reminds me of a story I just saw about a similar former friend of the US: Pinochet, the former benevolent ruler of Chile.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 4936
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: A new Iranian future???

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 16 Jun 2013, 14:53:39

News reports say Iran has decided to send thousands of ground troops into Syria to fight on the side of the government against the US-backed rebels.

The "new Iranian future" is looking much like the old Iranian future.

Image
Iran sending thousands of troops into Syria to fight the US-backed rebels
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 15026
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: A new Iranian future???

Unread postby dissident » Sun 16 Jun 2013, 16:03:13

Plantagenet wrote:News reports say Iran has decided to send thousands of ground troops into Syria to fight on the side of the government against the US-backed rebels.

The "new Iranian future" is looking much like the old Iranian future.

Image
Iran sending thousands of troops into Syria to fight the US-backed rebels


It's perfectly legitimate for the Iranian Shi'ites to send troops to defend Syrian Shi'ites from Sunni Wahabbi jihadis. The FSA represents at best 70% of Syria's population, but according to objective data they do not have 100% support amongst the Sunnis (that is why they murder moderate Sunni clerics and civilians) and their level of support amongst the Sunnis is around 57% and dropping. As it drops they lose ground in cities and towns they should have controlled without problems.

Same old Iran is better than USA and Al Qaeda in bed together.
User avatar
dissident
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 2696
Joined: Sat 08 Apr 2006, 02:00:00

Re: A new Iranian future???

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 16 Jun 2013, 18:22:30

dissident wrote:Same old Iran is better than USA and Al Qaeda in bed together.


Its too late to avoid that now.

Obama has just flip-flopped again and now he wants to arm the Sunni rebels fighting in Syria, which de facto means the USA and Sunnis and Al Qaeda in bed together vs. the Shia apostates of the Alawite regime and Hezbollah and Iran, backed by Russia.

Image
Get a room
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 15026
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: A new Iranian future???

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 16 Jun 2013, 20:54:07

Plantagenet wrote:
dissident wrote:Same old Iran is better than USA and Al Qaeda in bed together.


Its too late to avoid that now.

Obama has just flip-flopped again and now he wants to arm the Sunni rebels fighting in Syria, which de facto means the USA and Sunnis and Al Qaeda in bed together vs. the Shia apostates of the Alawite regime and Hezbollah and Iran, backed by Russia.

Image
Get a room



Russia is repaying us for Afghanistan of the early 1980's the same way we used Afghanistan to repay them for Viet Nam of the 1960's that they used to repay us for Korea of the 1950's. So far neither of us is being dumb enough to send our own people to the fight, but that could change any day now if it keeps escalating. The supply lines to Syria for Iran and Russia are short compared to for America, and our EU friends are bad enough of economically that it would look crazy to their own people if they actively support USA on this one. How does the old saying go, amateurs talk about armies, professionals talk about logistics. Logistically Syria is a breeze for Iran and Russia and a royal PITA for America.
Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.
User avatar
Tanada
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 8166
Joined: Thu 28 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: South West shore Lake Erie, OH, USA

Re: A new Iranian future???

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Sun 16 Jun 2013, 21:48:18

Having followed the Syria madness through non MSM, I can't believe the USA wants to support beheaders of babies, slaughterers of entire villages- sick mad f*cks. The whole middle east seems to be a case of leave bad enough alone. The regimes which have fallen in the Arab Spring have been no angels, but the mad mussies coming in their footsteps are if anything a whole lot worse.
SeaGypsy
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 5839
Joined: Wed 04 Feb 2009, 03:00:00

Re: A new Iranian future???

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 16 Jun 2013, 22:28:20

Tanada wrote:Russia is repaying us for Afghanistan of the early 1980's the same way we used Afghanistan to repay them for Viet Nam of the 1960's that they used to repay us for Korea of the 1950's.


There's another cycle in there---Russia is repaying the USA for Libya in 2011. Khadaffi was a Arab socialist and former cold-war ally of the USSR, just like Assad in Syria. The Russians went along with the USA at the UN in 2011 when the USA pushed through "no-fly" zone over Libya on humanitarian grounds, which the USA promptly used as an excuse to blast apart the Libyan air force and then went on to blast apart every Libyan army unit, tank unit, armed motorcade etc. and finally destroyed many Libyan government buildings across the country.

Look at the difference this time---Russia is vetoing every US attempt to get UN approval for action such as a no-fly zone in Syria, and now Russia has made a big deal of supplying Assad in Syria with jets, guns, amunition and modern anti-aircraft missiles.
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 15026
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

PreviousNext

Return to Geopolitics

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests