Here Comes The Double Dip Pt. 3

[Lore]

You missed the sarcasm.

No I didn't. My reply was both droll AND sarcastic about your idea that a war with Iran would be great for oil prices.



OK..., lets get back to the actual topic under discussion in this thread, if you don't mind.

The world oil price has been boosted by Obama's sanctions and saber-rattling over Iran. Something similar happened last spring, when Obama started bombing Libya. The higher oil prices in the spring of 2011 helped stymy the 2011 momentum towards recovery....and now the surprisingly bad jobs numbers just seen seen for March suggest that something similar may be happening in 2012 as high oil prices return once again.

And your alternative is exactly what?

[Plantagenet]

The world oil price has been boosted by Obama's sanctions and saber-rattling over Iran. Something similar happened last spring, when Obama started bombing Libya. The higher oil prices in the spring of 2011 helped stymy the 2011 momentum towards recovery....and now the surprisingly bad jobs numbers just seen seen for March suggest that something similar may be happening in 2012 as high oil prices return once again.

And your alternative is exactly what?

If we had a smarter president than Obama, we wouldn't be stuck in this ridiculous situation where Bernanke is printing dollars as fast as he can to stimulate the economy until the economy starts gaining traction, but then BO does something boneheaded like bombing Libya or saber-ratting with Iran that causes oil prices to go up and the economy to go through another long cycle of slowing down.


Of course I suppose I shouldn't be surprised that obama doesn't understand things like peak Oil and how wars in the Middle East cause the price of oil to rise and economic activity to slow. After all---Obama is such a dope that he doesn't even understand that the US Supreme Court ----even though unelected----is empowered by the US Constitution to declare all or parts of laws unconstitutional.

[Cog]

We are starting to see that 6 month lag between sustained +100/bbl oil and a slow-down in the economy. If prices stay up, expect the downturn to get a lot worse.

[ralfy]

"NFP Big Miss: 120K, Expectations 205K, Unemployment 8.2%, "Not In Labor Force" At New All Time High"

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/nfp-big-m ... loyment-82

[Lore]

If we had a smarter president than Obama, we wouldn't be stuck in this ridiculous situation where Bernanke is printing dollars as fast as he can to stimulate the economy until the economy starts gaining traction, but then BO does something boneheaded like bombing Libya or saber-ratting with Iran that causes oil prices to go up and the economy to go through another long cycle of slowing down.

And who would that smarter President then Obama be? Obama doesn't control Bernanke.

I would suggest Obama understands PO quite well, as did several previous Presidents.

[dolanbaker]

If we had a smarter president than Obama, we wouldn't be stuck in this ridiculous situation where Bernanke is printing dollars as fast as he can to stimulate the economy until the economy starts gaining traction, but then BO does something boneheaded like bombing Libya or saber-ratting with Iran that causes oil prices to go up and the economy to go through another long cycle of slowing down.

And who would that smarter President then Obama be? Obama doesn't control Bernanke.

I would suggest Obama understands PO quite well, as did several previous Presidents.

Probably he does, in a sense that he can't admit it because his ability to do his job depends on him not acknowledging it!

[Daniel_Plainview]

"NFP Big Miss: 120K, Expectations 205K, Unemployment 8.2%, "Not In Labor Force" At New All Time High"

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/nfp-big-m ... loyment-82

Thanks, Ralfy.

It should be clear to everyone that US unemployment data is now so heavily manipulated as to be almost worthless.

Consider, for example, that roughly three-fourths of all new jobs are part-time/temp jobs.

Consider that persons "not in labor force" is at an all-time high.

Consider that this is the worst labor force participation in history.

Consider the dozens of other stats that demonstrate the fraudulent nature of Obama's increasingly desperate "recovery."

[Daniel_Plainview]

We are starting to see that 6 month lag between sustained +100/bbl oil and a slow-down in the economy. If prices stay up, expect the downturn to get a lot worse.

It gets worse: to the extent that Obama's/Bernanke's irrational desperation compels central bank and fiscal intervention via bailouts/QE/ZIRP/Twist/stimulus/ etc., then we can expect commodity prices to escalate accordingly.

As central bankers and fiscal spenders become more desperate, commodity prices will increase proportionately.

There is no way out of this box.

Printing won't work.

Deficit spending won't work.

War with Iran won't work.

TARP 2 won't work.

QE 3 won't work.

Fannie/Freddie Bailout 2 won't work.

... and this is only "round 1" ...

But fear not, because we have the Cornies to cheer us on

[Cloud9]

If they stop printing the game is up.

[Daniel_Plainview]

If they stop printing the game is up.

Yep.

The game is already "up" ... and printing merely prolongs the inevitable.

This is why the 2012 elections will be the last and final elections amid "normal" times ... this is the "last hurrah" for private, free-market capitalism ... and Obama knows it.

[newman1979]

No President of the US would want high oil prices. It is stupid to think so. The issues are that the policies of Israel's Government are adding $10-15 a barrel to the price. The Government is trying to keep a lid on a new war that could have many unintended consequences. The crude oil inventory has increased 30 million barrels over the last few weeks and oil is still over $100. Oil companies themselves are run by Republicans and largely owned by Republicans, as are refiners. Why not blame them? Blame the oil traders if you want. The President is a powerful person, but not that powerful IMO.












410-15

[AgentR11]

DP.. you assert "xyz won't work". But fail to define what that work is. If you ask me, it seem to be working beautifully. Its harsh as heck, but it is definitely working.

So what is this "work"?

The work is to keep grain moving from the farms to the cities, while putting some slowing pressure on the overall US consumption of energy. Now, there is a limit to what Bernanke and Co. can do, and thus the speed of the change may be too slow, but that remains to be seen.

Raising the price of crude is *good*; raising its dollar denominated price is double good. Increasing the number of Americans who are no longer even part of the counted workforce is triple good.

It would be unfair to suggest that Obama planned for this to happen when he was inaugurated, but the opportunity presented itself in the way the financial collapse played out, and so they took it. It places more people on government support, it reduces consumption, it locks interest rates for the government far below the interest rates available to private companies; what's not to like if you're Obama?

There's also the sick side effect that it further locks the American Nobility into their class as well. They don't have "IRAs" with x-odd dollars drawing interest below inflation; they have real assets, land, commercial productive properties, equities, overseas accounts. Those middle class schmoe's though, who buy high and sell low, and have most of their retirement locked to the fate of the dollar... they're about to receive a whuppin for daring to believe in the dream.

[Plantagenet]

No President of the US would want high oil prices.

Don't be silly. Obama pledged in 2008 to raise oil prices by imposing "tax and cap" carbon taxes on all hydrocarbons and coal.. After flip-flopping on that promise in 2010, Obama in 2012 is campaigning on raising taxes directly on oil companies in order to raise the price of gas. And Stephen Chu, Obama's energy secretary famously said he wanted US gas prices to rise to European levels (i.e. $8-9 dollars a gallon). While politically unpopular, there is a good case to be made that raising prices on US gas is the best smart way to get the US to cut back on oil use. I favor raising taxes on gas myself, if the proceeds could be fenced off from the Congress and the dopes in the Obama administration and their corrupt cronies at Solyndra and such and put into post-car infrastructure like electric trains.

... the policies of Israel's Government are adding $10-15 a barrel to the price.

Actually, in early 2012 Obama put in place in economic sanctions that penalize the bank of any foreign country that buys Iranian Oil, in an attempt to cut off Iranian oil exports. This produced a crisis with Iran and lead to Iranian threats that if they couldn't export their oil, they would block the strait of Hormuz so no one could export their oil. Blaming Irsrael for Obama's actions is silly----Israel doesn't tell Obama what to do---the US sanctions on Iranian oil exports are 100% the responsibility of Obama.

Oil companies themselves are run by Republicans and largely owned by Republicans, as are refiners. Why not blame them? Blame the oil traders if you want. The President is a powerful person, but not that powerful IMO.

Oil companies produce oil, but they don't set the prices. Similarly Oil Traders trade oil, but they don't control the prices. The prices are controlled by supply and demand. When Obama unilaterally imposed sanctions on Iranian Oil exports, he reduced oil supplies in a tight global market. Iran exports about 3.5 million barrels of oil a day---the loss of that oil would cause global oil prices to explode. Fortunately, countries like China, Japan and India are finding ways to work around Obama's ill-advised sanctions regime and some Iranian oil is still getting out to the global market.

[Arthur75]

Fortunately, countries like China, Japan and India are finding ways to work around Obama's ill-advised sanctions regime and some Iranian oil is still getting out to the global market.

I's more that they don't apply the embargo, plain and simple (not sure for japan)

[Plantagenet]

Fortunately, countries like China, Japan and India are finding ways to work around Obama's ill-advised sanctions regime and some Iranian oil is still getting out to the global market.

I's more that they don't apply the embargo, plain and simple (not sure for japan)

The US embargo against Iranian oil exports isn't voluntary, plain and simple.

The Obama administration has said it will economically punish any country in the world that imports oil from Iran in order to force countries like China, India and Japan to stop buying oil from Iran. Obama (and the EU) want to see Iran's oil exports drop from 3 million barrels a day to zero. Japan asked for a waiver from the US sanctions, and China and India are so far ignoring the US embargo.

What Obama and the EU leaders have apparently failed to consider, is that taking 3 million barrels of oil off the market will cause the price of oil to skyrocket, damaging the economies of the US and the EU.

PeakOil.com (i.e. this web site) just featured a news story about this problem---check it out

Can the world replace 3 million barrels/day of oil from Iran?

[Arthur75]

and China and India are so far ignoring the US embargo.

Yes, and Obama isn't really doing anything about it, as to the world market doing without Iran oil, most probably it couldn't, the question would be how much does this embargo takes out of the market (it can also lower Iran revenues for the same amount they "produce", and make Irn oil cheaper for China and India)

[Plantagenet]

and China and India are so far ignoring the US embargo.

Yes, and Obama isn't really doing anything about it

Yes he is:

WASHINGTON — President Barack Obama said Friday he was plowing ahead with potential sanctions against countries that keep buying oil from Iran, including allies of the United States, in a deepening campaign to starve Iran of money for its disputed nuclear program.

The world oil market is tight but deep enough to keep the squeeze on Iran, Obama ruled.

The sanctions aim to further isolate Iran's central bank, which processes nearly all of the Iran's oil purchases, from the global economy. Obama's move clears the way for the U.S. to penalize foreign financial institutions that do oil business with Iran by barring them from having a U.S.-based affiliate or doing business here.

Obama's goal is to tighten the pressure on Iran, not allies, and already the administration exempted 10 European Union countries and Japan from the threat of sanctions because they cut their oil purchases from Iran. Other nations have about three months to significantly reduce such imports before sanctions would kick in.

...administration officials said that Obama is ready to slap sanctions on U.S. partners and that his action on Friday was another signal.

---from the Huffington Post

--------------

But according to the White House there are no worries about a spike in oil prices hurting the economy or anything like that---the Obama white house says we can get plenty of oil from our friends the Saudis to replace the 3 million barrels/day of Iranian exports.

[TheAntiDoomer]

You know things are getting crazy when PlantedAgent decides to side with the Iranians! and ignores the fact that it is his people the REPUBLICANS that want to bomb bomb bomb bomb Iran! (which would lead to FAR higher oil prices than sanctions!)

[Plantagenet]

.... bomb bomb bomb bomb Iran! (which would lead to FAR higher oil prices than sanctions!)

Your fantasies about "bomb bomb bomb bomb Iran" aren't whats going on, Anti.

Why not face facts: Obama's new global sanctions are producing higher global oil prices which the US doesn't need right now. Job growth is already slowing, and the overall economy may stall as well if oil prices go much higher.

[TheAntiDoomer]

sigh, this cartoon is far ore accurate: