It's official: New monthly world crude oil production record

[vision-master]

What are you going to do with all that oil oily, buy a brand new pair of shoes, or what?

[sparky]

.
I'll take Oilfinder numbers without too much quibbles
but mentionning the priceof oil as WTI is not so good
in fact WTI is underpricing by ~ 25$ a barrel .

[dissident]

What is meeting that difference is production from non-conventional sources.

I think it is also being fed by a forced regime on existing oil fields. The current 6.7% annual depletion at existing oil fields (according to the IEA) is accelerating. Part of this is due to the increasing average age of fields, but part is likely due to demand driving increased extraction rates. So we are bringing future oil production forward to now which will result in a more rapid drop of the production curve in the years ahead. This could also explain the plateau in production since 2005 in spite of growing demand. If extraction rates were held constant at 2000 conditions we probably would have seen a slow drop in production already.

The use of all liquids to trumpet "oil" production increases is a joke. Ethanol and biodiesel cannot replace oil and what we are seeing is a transient uptick which will disappear very quickly once the underlying crude oil production begins to slide. This slide appears like it will be steep.

[meemoe_uk]

The trend for C&C and all liquids since 2009 has been about 2.1%. Fastest rate in 30 years.

[kublikhan]

a 2.1% increase in 2 years is not the fastest rate in 30 years. Not even close. From 1994 - 1996 we had a 4.3% increase. From 1996 - 1998 we had a 5% increase. From 2002 - 2004 we had a 7.7% increase.

[meemoe_uk]

But the 2009~ increase is a long term increase. Making comparisions to short term increases implies you think the increase is going to stop this year.
Not so, we are in the golden age of oil. The oil industry is booming. In the first 2 months of 2012 the oil production measures already a good deal ahead of the 2011 all time records.
So let me just clarify what I meant
2.1% is a 30 year record increase for some duration more than 3 years.

[kublikhan]

That is still not correct. The c&c increase from 2009 has already gone off trend. From 2009 to 2010, c&c increased by 2.4%. From 2010 it 2011 it increased by .1%. The trend was broken after only 1 year. So much for the golden age of oil.

[meemoe_uk]

>The trend was broken after only 1 year. So much for the golden age of oil.
We'll see about that. I'll be falling back on this quote.

And though you tried to duck out out directly answering the point, Making comparisions to short term increases implies you think the increase is going to stop this year. your post is pretty in the negative, like you believe PO_is_Now!
Oh dear.

Also, you've gone down to 1 year interval. Now I know why you were happy to grab other 3 year intervals to compare with the 3 years we've got for the 2009~ decades long oil flood and boom. You don't see that 3 years is tenuous enough, and 1 year means nothing. Catch up with your maths.

[kublikhan]

You misunderstand me. I am not making predictions of the future. I am making observations of the past. From the EIA:

Production of Crude Oil including Lease Condensate (Thousand Barrels Per Day)
year prod. - increase
2005 73,671
2006 73,378 (0.4%) decrease
2007 72,906 (0.6%) decrease
2008 73,590 0.9% increase
2009 72,182 (2.0%) decrease
2010 73,889 2.4% increase
2011 73,964 0.1% increase

Production of Crude Oil including Lease Condensate

I don't care what time interval you would like to use: 1yr, 3yr, 5yr, etc. Anyway you cut it I don't see evidence of a record c&c production increase that you speak of. The 2.4% increase of 2009-2010 largely offset the prior year's decline. If you want to look at a longer timeframe, say 2005 - 2011, the increase looks even more pathetic: 293,000 barrels. Divided that by 6 years and you get a pathetic 0.07% increase per year. I am just not seeing this record production increase you speak of no matter which years I look at. Are you using different data than I or something?

[AgentR11]

Divided that by 6 years and you get a pathetic 0.07% increase per year.

I asked the question on this thread before and it was ignored by the cornies.... exactly how much flatter does it have to be before they acknowledge a plateau? Do we need polished granite countertop flat before it counts????

Come on folks, tis flat as it could possibly be given the pump and store and ship and pipe and cook of the marketplace. No harm in acknowledging it. With the price up like it is, all sorts of unconventional substitutes are profitable, especially considering the ultra low price of natural gas to feed in electricity and heat; we'll manage to squeeze out some extra liquid energy and continue on for quite a while at this rate.

[sparky]

.
It's not so simple ,
it could be a pause in growth due to demand shrinkage
it could be a phase delay of the slackened exploration in the late 90ies

I believe we are at the peak , there is not going to be much of a plateau
storage filling , transport and transit dynamic can give several peaks
daily weekly monthly or yearly ,
for crude extracted , transported , consumed ...whatever

lest's be precise ,
for me a published rise to 75 millions barrel /day of crude extraction for two quarters would be the line that we have not reached the peak .

the rest is accountancy

[pstarr]

Agent, that's right. So much of new "quote"oil"unquote" is really coal, natural gas, and hydro re-visioned. So they grow some corn or dig up the tar and "upgrade" with a bit of the H2. Voila. Presto chango you have oil. wup!

Not only is low-eroei oil more difficult and timely to extract, not only does it require more other precious fuels, but the infrastructure that these mining systems require (the monster trucks, the deep pit-mines, the grinders, mills, settling tanks, etc.) are now RUSTING and old and expensive to replace.

So many subsidies. So little time.

[meemoe_uk]

>I am just not seeing this record production increase you speak of no matter which years I look at. Are you using different data than I or something?
Nope same data.

And if you can't see an upwards trend since 2009, coupled with the knowledge that the middle east oil bonanza is starting to flow, then I can't help you. Graphs are spose to make it easy for people who can't understand numbers, but you can't see it. So no amount of my numbers or reasoning will help you.

>I don't care what time interval you would like to use: 1yr, 3yr, 5yr, etc
That's part of your fail. Using your carefree method, why not derive conclusions from 1 month and 100 year intervals?

[vision-master]

[meemoe_uk]

Hi VM, nice graph, but you forgot to put in this text along side it.
" Look at this bare faced lie from the hype and fear mongers at scitizen.com. Not only have they got the 2011 figure wrong, they've got the cheek to say its from the EIA "

The http address for the image is based at scitizen.com, not the EIA website.

EIA conventional oil + condensate average by year
2010 : 73,889.2 Kbpd
2011 : 73,964.0 Kbpd
figures direct from the EIA website
They don't corrispond with the fraudulent scitizen graph.

...or then again you could be using a report that's 5 months out of date, is based only on 1 cherry picked month of the year ( July ) rather than the year average.
Keep mixing up the same old box of tricks.

[vision-master]

So why is gas $4 gal now? I remember when I could fill up the tank for $4?

Don't give me no inflation BS either....

[kublikhan]

Nope same data.

It's not the same data. I was looking at yearly c&c changes, you just linked to monthly total oil supply changes.

And if you can't see an upwards trend since 2009, coupled with the knowledge that the middle east oil bonanza is starting to flow, then I can't help you. Graphs are spose to make it easy for people who can't understand numbers, but you can't see it. So no amount of my numbers or reasoning will help you.

Nice. I'll repeat this again for you: We were looking at 2 different data sets. I was looking at yearly c&c changes, you were looking at monthly total oil supply changes. But if you want to look at monthly total oil supply that is fine with me. Lets look at that shall we? We don't even need to go back 30 years, how about just a few years ago? The period on your graph that you are talking about is roughly:

feb 2009 - 83,769
feb 2012 - 90,250 7.7% total increase(2.6% per year)

Lets compare that to:

May 2002 - 76,736
May 2005 - 85,081 10.9% total increase(3.6% per year)

Forget 30 years ago, we have this production increase beat just a few years ago. So much for "fastest" rate in 30 years.

That's part of your fail. Using your carefree method, why not derive conclusions from 1 month and 100 year intervals?

We can use whatever intervals you like. I still don't see the data supporting your assertion.

[sparky]

.
Two quarter of conventionnal crude production below 72 m/b/d
would be a pretty good clue that we are in the deep brown biological stuff

any mere million barrel fluctuation is irrelevant
claiming every month that we are at the peak will be spot on eventually
but it's only ten years later than we will be sure

[ralfy]

In addition to what Vision Master shared, BP also reported that we've been meeting oil demand by using non-conventional sources of energy since 2006. Thus, the record increases in oil production become meaningless as they do not resemble those of the past and, more important, cannot meet demand.

[sparky]

.
It's an old problem , when marion Hubbert made his prediction
oil meant liquid hydrocarbon which floated on water and came from land and near offshore .
He never suspected floating platform or oceanic drilling at humungous pre-salt depth

within his terms of reference , his prediction actually came true .

lease condensates were added to crude much later ,
I'm not quite sure when and would love being enlighten