It's official: New monthly world crude oil production record

[Serial_Worrier]

The depletion rate is on reserves. You can increase production, which means you are just depleting the reserves that much faster.

I'm sure oily will have a witty comeback. really he will!

[OilFinder2]

Sorry, you should have said, "we need at least a 5% increase in reserves every year just to stay even with depletion."

Since I had posted information on production, when you responded to that it made it sound like you were also talking about production.

Whatever.

[Lore]

Since I had posted information on production, when you responded to that it made it sound like you were also talking about production.

They are interrelated, just like your bank account and your spending habits.

[Pops]

Oil reserves were up a smidge but nothing compared to the last couple of years and certainly not much considering a nearly $20 increase in avg price and the big jump in consumption.

In fact the bump we'd seen in reserve/production ratio is down about a year to 47 year. It grew every year at a steep rate up to '88 when it hit 43 years where it's been stuck at +/- 3 years ever since. The last couple of years of shale and sand and deep water hype really got me thinking there was a big change coming in the R/P but maybe not...

Looks like cheap oil is pretty well over.

[astalavista_b]

Oil reserves were up a smidge but nothing compared to the last couple of years and certainly not much considering a nearly $20 increase in avg price and the big jump in consumption.

In fact the bump we'd seen in reserve/production ratio is down about a year to 47 year. It grew every year at a steep rate up to '88 when it hit 43 years where it's been stuck at +/- 3 years ever since. The last couple of years of shale and sand and deep water hype really got me thinking there was a big change coming in the R/P but maybe not...

Looks like cheap oil is pretty well over.

If the tar sands especially the ones at Venezuela and Canada are truly estimated, it will have a great impact on r/p ratios. On the other hand the truth never changes:" No more cheap Oil".

[ralfy]

Sorry if this is a repost:

"Running dry"

http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailycha ... onsumption

A member in another forum also pointed out that consumption appears to have been exceeding production since 2006 or so. Also, as pointed out in the update, we've been using biofuels, etc., just to meet demand.

[SpockLives]

Sorry if this is a repost:

"Running dry"

http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailycha ... onsumption

A member in another forum also pointed out that consumption appears to have been exceeding production since 2006 or so. Also, as pointed out in the update, we've been using biofuels, etc., just to meet demand.

Sounds like those who wish to count only conventional crude should beware. If we can make up increases in demand with anything and everything else, no matter what it is, then the relevance of peaking conventional crude becomes...less.

[dolanbaker]

Sorry if this is a repost:

"Running dry"

http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailycha ... onsumption

A member in another forum also pointed out that consumption appears to have been exceeding production since 2006 or so. Also, as pointed out in the update, we've been using biofuels, etc., just to meet demand.

Sounds like those who wish to count only conventional crude should beware. If we can make up increases in demand with anything and everything else, no matter what it is, then the relevance of peaking conventional crude becomes...less.

No, It's a classic case of robbing peter to pay paul.
Resource depletion or substitution is still taking place.

[GoIllini]

The depletion rate is on reserves. You can increase production, which means you are just depleting the reserves that much faster.

The EIA is showing a YoY increase in reserves as well, though not sure how much of that is coming from Athabasca and whether you want to exclude that from consideration.

Regardless of what machinations and analyses folks come up with to claim tar sands have a negative EROEI, the bottom line is that unlike heavily subsidized ethanol, the market has proven that oil sands production is commercially viable without government help. It's gotten to the point where some of the tar sands companies have become dividend stocks like oil companies and oil is getting supplied from the sands on the scale of a major OPEC country. I can come up with all sorts of explanations for why a car won't run. If someone gets in and turns the key and I hear the car running, I can claim it's just sound-effects. But if the person makes me get in and we drive 300 miles, I start running out of options to deny it. You cannot claim that $100 Billion/year worth of oil is getting produced up in Athabasca and billions of dollars are getting made by the oil companies who are net paying billions in taxes to the Canadian government and it's all somehow a net loss of oil. To do that would be to claim that the car didn't run but the road just moved backward.

We've got 30-40 years to figure out fusion. Or satellite-based solar.

[OilFinder2]

Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls. May I have your attention please.

The EIA has now reported that the world has a new crude and condensate production record. As of December, 75.4 million barrels/day were produced, compared to the previous records of 74.8 million barrels/day in November, 75.2 million barrels/day in December 2010, and 74.6 million barrels/day in July 2008. Numbers are rounded off.

We also have a new yearly crude & condensate record of 73.964 million barrels/day, eclipsing the previous record of 73.889 million barrels/day set in 2010. Yes, that's correct: Last year the world produced nearly 74 million barrels per day.

Thank you, and have a nice day.

[AgentR11]

That is scary scary flat for a world trying to add millions and millions of additional middle class consumers.

[Lore]

That is scary scary flat for a world trying to add millions and millions of additional middle class consumers.

Especially when you consider producers are going balls to the wall on every conventional and unconventional fossile fuel resource known.

With only two to four million barrels of spare capacity left for any hiccups, the markets are just beginning to wake up. The next three years are going to be ugly.

[Pops]

I'd make a big announcement that long term average prices are also higher than at any time in the history of oil but of course everyone knows that already don't they?

I will point out that price is the proxy for demand and that regardless of how much supply has increased it obviously isn't able to rise fast enough - hasn't been about to rise fast enough for about 10 years now.

[ralfy]

Sorry if this is a repost:

"Running dry"

http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailycha ... onsumption

A member in another forum also pointed out that consumption appears to have been exceeding production since 2006 or so. Also, as pointed out in the update, we've been using biofuels, etc., just to meet demand.

Sounds like those who wish to count only conventional crude should beware. If we can make up increases in demand with anything and everything else, no matter what it is, then the relevance of peaking conventional crude becomes...less.

It's actually bad news because we're not supposed to be using non-conventional sources, especially biofuels, as that drives up the cost of food. Rather, we should be increasing production from conventional sources significantly, something which can be seen in the thread title.

[misterno]

I don't understand

Howcome oil production is breaking records but oil price is close to all time high ($125/bbl)

It does not make sense

[Pops]

Basically people in the poor world were given one US factory job, they divided it 50 ways and all 50 became oil consumers. Since each one can get much more utility from a gallon of gas than what a $50 an hour guy in the rich world can get, they can also afford to buy more out of their 50 one dollar incomes.

Put another way,
A glass of water is worth more to a guy in El Paso than to a guy in Houston.

[pstarr]

It's all about definition creep. Lease condensate, but especially so-called natural gas liquids (NGL) are counted by EIA as liquid petroleum. But that is disingenuous and intended to confuse the issue. Lease Condensate and NGL are really alkanes, mostly unsuitable as substitutes for the complex, complete hydrocarbons that most regular people (non-cornies) refer to as "oil." Yes, you can light a cigarette with butane but it will not drive the Prius to the soccer game.

[OilFinder2]

Perhaps pstarr's computer isn't working properly, but if he actually cared to click on the link, he would have noticed the numbers are for "Crude Oil including Lease Condensate." He needed only to pull down the menu on the link to learn that natural gas liquids are a different category which were not included in those numbers. And as pointed out numerous times on this forum, lease condensate has been included in this particular EIA data set along with crude oil since the EIA began tabulating the figures in the early 70's. So, there is nothing new in this data.

Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls. May I have your attention please.

The EIA has now reported that the world has a new crude and condensate production record. As of December, 75.4 million barrels/day were produced, compared to the previous records of 74.8 million barrels/day in November, 75.2 million barrels/day in December 2010, and 74.6 million barrels/day in July 2008. Numbers are rounded off.

We also have a new yearly crude & condensate record of 73.964 million barrels/day, eclipsing the previous record of 73.889 million barrels/day set in 2010. Yes, that's correct: Last year the world produced nearly 74 million barrels per day.

Thank you, and have a nice day.

[pstarr]

lease condensate has been included in this particular EIA data set since the EIA began tabulating the figures in the early 70's.

Exactly. The EIA has been mis-reporting and inflating petroleum production ever since the US peak in 1971. How long have they been redefining corn liquor as oil? That's fairly new? What about 5 years?

[KingM]

lease condensate has been included in this particular EIA data set since the EIA began tabulating the figures in the early 70's.

Exactly. The EIA has been mis-reporting and inflating petroleum production ever since the US peak in 1971. How long have they been redefining corn liquor as oil? That's fairly new? What about 5 years?

1971 was the year I was born. If we're in the middle of a peak oil collapse, it's such a slow-moving collapse that it is unlikely to have much of an effect on my life.

I don't know why people point to a plateau as evidence of a collapse. This is the best-case scenario. It keeps enough energy in the system to complete a transition without increasing the scope of the problem. With any luck, the plateau will continue for another twenty years until petroleum becomes a smaller and smaller fraction of the entire economy.