Here Comes The Double Dip Pt. 3

[AgentR11]

Why is 20 mil on the x-axis...
?

[peripato]

In this, the sublime year of recovery, the goons can't even get their bullcr*p variables on GDP and unemployment to line up.

Jobless numbers defy economic theory

Economists are scratching their heads over the recent failure of a textbook economic law: In order for the unemployment rate to be where it is today, our economy should be growing faster than it is.

FORTUNE -- Lately the improving jobs picture has stumped many Wall Street economists, who say the labor market seems to be doing better than what the pace of economic growth would suggest.

Goldman Sachs (GS) and a few other Wall Street firms forecast real GDP growth of less than 2% this quarter. And yet, the unemployment rate in January dropped to 8.3% – the lowest level in three years. The decline goes against Okun's Law, which economists have historically relied on to forecast what the job market might look like given how quickly (or slowly) the economy is growing.

As a rule of thumb, Okun holds that year-on-year economic growth of 2 percentage points above the trend -- widely considered 2.5% -- is needed to lower unemployment by one point. And vice versa.

Since the Great Recession, the unemployment rate has defied the law...

C'mon, even in an election year, when there are tons of untold bullsh*t, tossed around by the circus monkeys in Washington, they can't even get this fairy story together.

Pathetic cr*p.

[OilFinder2]

C'mon, even in an election year, when there are tons of untold bullsh*t, tossed around by the circus monkeys in Washington, they can't even get this fairy story together.

I would be more inclined to invoke conspiracy theories if every single data point were lining up perfectly, exactly as they would be expected to according to some formula, than if they weren't. When you're collecting data for a nation of 300+ million, there's going to be a lot of messy noise and some inconsistencies. IMO if there isn't any messy noise and everything aligns perfectly, that should start raising flags, not the presence of noise and inconsistencies.

[peripato]

C'mon, even in an election year, when there are tons of untold bullsh*t, tossed around by the circus monkeys in Washington, they can't even get this fairy story together.

I would be more inclined to invoke conspiracy theories if every single data point were lining up perfectly, exactly as they would be expected to according to some formula, than if they weren't. When you're collecting data for a nation of 300+ million, there's going to be a lot of messy noise and some inconsistencies. IMO if there isn't any messy noise and everything aligns perfectly, that should start raising flags, not the presence of noise and inconsistencies.

Oily, congratulations! I see now you have now reached the level of Master on this forum, with more than 6300 posts, in what, the four years since membership? I've been here since May 2005 and don't even have 1000 posts to my name. Kudos!

How do you do it? I mean, post on average 30 times a week on various topics, often at length and still find time to do all the other things most of us poor schleps here need to do - like work, cook, clean, shop, play with the dog, prep for collapse, speak to the missus etc?

What is your secret and can you transplant it to the evil, stupid, hopeless fu*ks in D.C?

Sincerely,

P.

[OilFinder2]

I mean, post on average 30 times a week on various topics, often at length and still find time to do all the other things most of us poor schleps here need to do - like .. prep for collapse ...

Right there lies your problem. If you didn't waste so much time preparing for something which is never going to arrive, you'd have a lot more time to post on this forum.

[peripato]

I mean, post on average 30 times a week on various topics, often at length and still find time to do all the other things most of us poor schleps here need to do - like .. prep for collapse ...

Right there lies your problem. If you didn't waste so much time preparing for something which is never going to arrive, you'd have a lot more time to post on this forum.

Really OF, prepping doesn't take that much time, once you get started. Why, it takes no more time than goofing off posting here all night and all day and is potentially a lot more beneficial to ones future well being, than trying to convince doomers out of doomdom.

You should try it, after all you must have some kind of insurance policy against disaster, no matter how remote the possibility. Don't you?

[OilFinder2]

You should try it, after all you must have some kind of insurance policy against disaster, no matter how remote the possibility. Don't you?

I have car insurance because, 1)I'm legally obligated to buy it, but also, 2) getting in an accident of any severity is a somewhat high probability, as far as accidents and disasters go. If nothing else there's always fender-benders.

I own home insurance also because I'm legally obligated to buy it. Otherwise I probably wouldn't have gotten it. I didn't even bother getting the optional earthquake insurance even though I live right over an earthquake fault.

As for doomsday "insurance" of any sort, I see no point wasting my time prepping for something which has a 0.000000000001% chance of happening in my lifetime. If doomsday does happen to arrive in my lifetime, I figure I might as well go with all the other people who go kaput. I probably wouldn't want to hang around after doomsday anyway, it wouldn't be a very nice place to be.

[careinke]

As for doomsday "insurance" of any sort, I see no point wasting my time prepping for something which has a 0.000000000001% chance of happening in my lifetime. If doomsday does happen to arrive in my lifetime, I figure I might as well go with all the other people who go kaput. I probably wouldn't want to hang around after doomsday anyway, it wouldn't be a very nice place to be.

I applaud your attitude and hope many, many more people feel the same way.

Unfortunately/fortunately, I believe a post apocalyptic future could be very comfortable for some.

[Anvil]

Market's Next Big Worry: A Dismal Earnings Season Ahead
Published: Monday, 19 Mar 2012 | 2:05 PM ET Text Size
By: Jeff Cox
CNBC.com Senior Writer


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An ominous cloud is about to hover over the stock market's feel-good 2012 story: Earnings season, which begins in just a few weeks, is shaping up to be the worst since the financial crisis.

I have a good feeling that this year might shape up to being the end of the USA empire of doom and distraction.
Things are looking up so far.
The people at the fed could use some mustered gas to get the process under way.

[OilFinder2]

The headline number showed a smallish decrease, but including upward revisions to January it was basically flat. However, the apartment boom continues unabated and, perhaps more importantly, building permits soared 5.1%.



New U.S. home construction falls slightly: February building permits jump to highest level since October 2008

U.S. builders started construction on new homes in February at a slightly slower pace, government data showed Tuesday, but the biggest increase in permits in 3 1/2 years indicates work will pick up in the coming months.

Housing starts fell 1.1% to an annual rate of 698,000 last month, compared with an upwardly revised 706,000 in January, the Commerce Department said.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected housing starts to rise to 706,000 from an original reading of 699,000 in January. The data are seasonally adjusted.

New construction of single-family homes, which account for three-quarters of the housing market, dropped nearly 10% to an annual rate of 457,000. Construction of single-family homes is still running 18% higher compared against a year ago, however.

Work on multi-dwelling units — apartment buildings and the like — jumped nearly 29% to an annual rate of 233,000.

Permits to begin new construction, meanwhile, climbed 5.1% last month to an annual rate of 717,000 — the highest level since the middle of the last recession in October 2008.

Single-family home permits increased 4.9% to an annual rate of 472,000. Permits for condominiums and apartments rose a smaller 3.3% to a rate of 219,000.

Permits, which have been gradually increasing since last fall, give an indication of whether demand for new homes is growing or slowing.

[...]

[dsula]

As for doomsday "insurance" of any sort, I see no point wasting my time prepping for something which has a 0.000000000001% chance of happening in my lifetime. If doomsday does happen to arrive in my lifetime, I figure I might as well go with all the other people who go kaput. I probably wouldn't want to hang around after doomsday anyway, it wouldn't be a very nice place to be.

Doom is not an event. It's slowly, grinding you down, over years, maybe decades. Each round a little less benefits, a little less salary, a little more expensive hamburgers, a little more crime, a little less vacation etc. And all of a sudden you will be gardening, not because it's cool, but simply to survive. And you will tell your grandchildern of better times, times when working in mc-donalds paid enough to pay for gas for an old toyota. Now it hardly pays for food.

[Alohafax]

The headline number showed a smallish decrease, but including upward revisions to January it was basically flat. However, the apartment boom continues unabated and, perhaps more importantly, building permits soared 5.1%.



New U.S. home construction falls slightly: February building permits jump to highest level since October 2008

U.S. builders started construction on new homes in February at a slightly slower pace, government data showed Tuesday, but the biggest increase in permits in 3 1/2 years indicates work will pick up in the coming months.

Housing starts fell 1.1% to an annual rate of 698,000 last month, compared with an upwardly revised 706,000 in January, the Commerce Department said.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected housing starts to rise to 706,000 from an original reading of 699,000 in January. The data are seasonally adjusted.

New construction of single-family homes, which account for three-quarters of the housing market, dropped nearly 10% to an annual rate of 457,000. Construction of single-family homes is still running 18% higher compared against a year ago, however.

Work on multi-dwelling units — apartment buildings and the like — jumped nearly 29% to an annual rate of 233,000.

Permits to begin new construction, meanwhile, climbed 5.1% last month to an annual rate of 717,000 — the highest level since the middle of the last recession in October 2008.

Single-family home permits increased 4.9% to an annual rate of 472,000. Permits for condominiums and apartments rose a smaller 3.3% to a rate of 219,000.

Permits, which have been gradually increasing since last fall, give an indication of whether demand for new homes is growing or slowing.

[...]

On the plus side, apartments/condos are often the most affordable choice for singles, childless couples, etc.... As well as being highly-desired by retirees who want to downscale. Don't get me wrong, I'd love if everybody could afford a home with a yard and garden if they wanted it, but these days, with families being smaller on average than before, and some people living the single life for decades, sometimes a condo just makes sense.

[Anvil]

Treasuries Snap Longest Ever Losing Streak
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/20/2012 16:02 -0400

Bond fixed
During the last 31 years of the US Treasury bond rally, the 10Y interest rate has never risen for 10 consecutive days and today's very modest 1.6bps rally ensures that will continue. Yesterday's weakness equaled the previous 9-days-in-row record from 6/26/06. The rise in 10Y rates over this 10 day period equals the Oct 2011 jolt in percentage terms as we hold at those 10/28/11 swing highs in rates. The previous 8 times that 10Y rates have risen for 7 days or more, the next 10 days have seen an average 16bps compression and next 20 days a 31.5bps compression (following the consecutive break). This of course is wreaking havoc with mortgage rates as according to Bloomberg's bankrate.com data, we are back above 4% for the 30Y fixed for the first time this year and this week has seen mortgage rates jump their most in 16 months.

Falling just short of the 10 days in a row of rate rises for 10 Year Treasuries leaves us equal with the all-time record 9 consecutive days from June 2006...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/treasurie ... ing-streak

Man I love it when i am right.

[peripato]

You should try it, after all you must have some kind of insurance policy against disaster, no matter how remote the possibility. Don't you?

I have car insurance because, 1)I'm legally obligated to buy it, but also, 2) getting in an accident of any severity is a somewhat high probability, as far as accidents and disasters go. If nothing else there's always fender-benders.

I own home insurance also because I'm legally obligated to buy it. Otherwise I probably wouldn't have gotten it. I didn't even bother getting the optional earthquake insurance even though I live right over an earthquake fault.

As for doomsday "insurance" of any sort, I see no point wasting my time prepping for something which has a 0.000000000001% chance of happening in my lifetime. If doomsday does happen to arrive in my lifetime, I figure I might as well go with all the other people who go kaput. I probably wouldn't want to hang around after doomsday anyway, it wouldn't be a very nice place to be.

I admire your resolve to go down with the ship, cap'n!

[peripato]

C'mon, even in an election year, when there are tons of untold bullsh*t, tossed around by the circus monkeys in Washington, they can't even get this fairy story together.

I would be more inclined to invoke conspiracy theories if every single data point were lining up perfectly, exactly as they would be expected to according to some formula, than if they weren't. When you're collecting data for a nation of 300+ million, there's going to be a lot of messy noise and some inconsistencies. IMO if there isn't any messy noise and everything aligns perfectly, that should start raising flags, not the presence of noise and inconsistencies.

I think the lesson here Oily is that it's far easier to game the stock and even the bond market to some extent, as they are just abstractions really, but not so easy to manipulate the real economy, which is what the goon's have been working hard at.

[dissident]

In this, the sublime year of recovery, the goons can't even get their bullcr*p variables on GDP and unemployment to line up.

Jobless numbers defy economic theory

Since the Great Recession, the unemployment rate has defied the law...

C'mon, even in an election year, when there are tons of untold bullsh*t, tossed around by the circus monkeys in Washington, they can't even get this fairy story together.

Pathetic cr*p.

This is classic. Not it couldn't be that the unemployment figures are fudged upwards now can it. We (including here in Canada) live in completely transparent, top of human civilization countries. Corruption is something that "they" do elsewhere.

Real jobs are moving to sweatshops abroad and somehow trickle down from the reseller sector is supposed to replace a developed economy? I can just hear the din from the swarms of pigs flying high.

[OilFinder2]

The headline number just missed Marketwatch's consensus, but January was revised upward. And, notably, prices increased year-over-year for the first time since Nov 2010.

Home sales dip but best February in five years

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Sales of existing homes fell 0.9% in February after an upward revision to the prior month, as improving job prospects, cheaper homes and warm weather led to the best start to the year since the bursting of the housing bubble.

The National Association of Realtors said sales in February fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.59 million, compared to an upwardly revised 4.63 million in January. January sales initially were recorded at a 4.57 million annual rate.

These were the best January and February levels in five years, the NAR said.

Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected February sales at a 4.6 million annual rate.

Compared to a year ago, sales were up 8.8%.

Lawrence Yun, the chief economist of the trade group, said he expects the gains to be sustainable, noting that unlike last year the pick-up came across the country, noting Pittsburgh, Providence, R.I., Kansas City and Minneapolis among the areas of strength.

“Our [real-estate agent] members are very enthusiastic,” Yun said. “Buyers are very serious. Last year they were kicking the tires.”

Yun acknowledged that unusually warm weather helped sales this winter but said that wasn’t the only factor.

“Weather may have helped but there’s something more genuine that is lifting January and February sales,” he said.

[...]

[Daniel_Plainview]

The Age of Cheap Oil Has Ended

While motorists feel the pain of the recent ascent of the oil price to near record levels, the underlying reality of rising oil prices has profound implications right across society.

Barring an unprecedented oil discovery, the world will never again see the return of cheap oil. Oil prices will certainly never return to the levels of the 1990s, or even the first half of the first decade of this century.

The rise in oil prices is the harbinger of a major restructuring of modern civilisation. Our inexorable addiction to oil, not only for fuel but for almost every single item we use, from food to fertilisers, to pesticides, pharmaceuticals, packaging and high technology, has reduced us all to oil junkies.

While oil unlocks incredible value in our modern lives, oil itself has been and remains deeply undervalued. Perhaps its current revaluation toward what are in fact realistic levels, will assist to shift our society towards more sustainable, considered lifestyles.

The primary reason that oil prices are set to remain high is because we have, by general consensus, reached the peak of oil production, so called "Peak Oil."

This should not come as a surprise.

In the mid-1950s United States geologist M.K. Hubbert predicted that US continental oil production would peak in the early 1970s, which it subsequently did. He similarly proposed that global oil production would peak sometime between 2000 and 2020.

Despite early denial of this reality by some extremely influential players in the oil industry, the authoritative International Energy Agency (IEA) declared that the "end of cheap oil" was upon us in their 2008 World Energy Outlook report. In 2010 they reinforced this by stating that peak oil production potential was reached in 2006. These realities have been echoed by a broad range of analysts across all sides of the spectrum.

We do know that world oil discovery peaked in the mid-1960's and we now use around six times more oil per year than we discover. While some major oil producers may have limited means to manipulate the market, at best this will simply flatten the peak for a few years. The fact is that even oil giants like Saudi Arabia have over-stated their true oil reserves for many years for fear of spooking the market.

Not only are oil supplies in rapidly decline but they are increasingly expensive and challenging to extract, as we saw in the Gulf of Mexico last year. For a civilisation reliant on oil as a source of cheap energy, the implications are epic.

One of the first impacts of increasing oil scarcity has begun to manifest - food prices are rising. Industrial food production is inextricably linked to the price of oil because it is so energy intensive. It is not only about how food is planted and harvested but also in how vast amounts of food are shifted across vast distances, often inter-continentally. Simply put, food has become just another industrial commodity, inextricably linked to other commodity cycles.

This is neatly illustrated in what happens to the US maize (corn) crop, the world's single biggest food commodity crop. Around forty percent of the total harvest is converted directly into ethanol and used as automobile fuel. The fact that this is a hopelessly inefficient process is hidden behind massive subsidies. A similar amount goes into animal feed. Some is used to produce food ingredients like high fructose corn syrup, corn starch and oil. An ever-decreasing percentage is consumed directly as food, mainly through subsidised US Aid food donations to developing nations, often distorting local markets.

The point is that cheap oil has been instrumental in maintaining artificially low food prices. However, since the mid-2000's food prices have moved in lockstep with the price of oil, both through the direct linkages of crop derived agro-fuels, and indirectly through speculative financial instruments. The fact remains that all industrially produced commodity crops are totally dependent on cheap oil. Fertilisers, pesticides, herbicides as well as farm energy and transport, are each directly linked to oil prices.

The end of cheap oil signals the end of artificially cheap food, and just about everything else. Clothing, housing, transport, and in turn the goods and services industries that support the global economy are inextricably linked to and reliant on cheap oil.

Despite adequate warning we have failed to develop anything that vaguely resembles a plan B, an alternative to using oil. This represents a staggering failure of international governance. While oil supply declines, demand is rapidly increasing, particularly amongst emerging economies like China, where increasingly mobile populations enter the global consumer economy.

What lies behind this major policy failure? After all, the realities of peak oil have been raised for at least a decade. However, similar and sometimes the identical groups involved in opposing the very notion of anthropogenic (human caused) climate change are instrumental in decrying the very notion of peak oil.

Despite such vehement denials, companies like Deutsche Bank, Exxon (the worlds largest oil company) and the governments of Australia and the United Kingdom have all stated, in one way or another, that peak oil presents a real and present challenge to the way the world works. Even the US Military Joint Forces Command has issued warnings. The reality is that peak oil is upon is.

Despite the reality and policy failures to date, peak oil need not be a harbinger of doom and gloom. Previous energy crunches, such as that in the 1970's saw rapid adaptation through the adoption of novel technologies. Social behaviour shifted rapidly with car-pooling and the movement toward virtual commuting.

While we do face real risks of civil unrest because of food shortages - nowhere epitomised better than the recent Egyptian Revolution - if reports by leading agricultural policy groups such as the International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development (IAASTD) and the UN Rapporteur on the Right to Food are noted, we will be able to shift our food production toward more egalitarian and sustainable methods.

The arrival of peak oil and its consequences must be taken for what it is: A massive opportunity to shift ourselves - our economy and our society - away from the dangerous and unsustainable practices that cheap energy has encouraged. There are other, better ways to do things. Our real challenges lie in seizing these opportunities before, not after, the oil triggered crises hit.

You have been warned.

[pstarr]

The Age of Cheap Oil Has Ended

While motorists feel the

Daniel, I don't think that story will convince anyone that we completely and totally FUBAR. Actually things are looking up for the economy (just in time for the Big Election). You might just wanna lay low for a little until high gas prices do their magic and burst the stock bubblet. Then American consumer confidence level will return to its new normal . . . the miserable depths.

[OilFinder2]

Or maybe ...

CITI: The US Energy Industry Is Going To Grow So Fast, It Will Spark A New 'Industrial Revolution'

Oil and gas production in the United States and North America is going to skyrocket in the next 8 years due to strides in natural resource extraction, write Citi analysts in a report published yesterday. In fact, they went so far as to call North America "the new Middle East," at least in terms of oil production.

This—as well as a trend towards declining U.S. energy consumption—will completely transform both the domestic economy and the threats the U.S. will face in the future,

[...]

This energy boom would have a transformative effect on the domestic economy. Here are just a few of the most astonishing consequences in a "good-case" scenario:

* Citi analysts expect real GDP to increase by 2.0 to 3.3 percent—$370 to $624 billion—as a consequence of new production, a decline in energy consumption, and the economic activity generated along with this.

* 3.6 million new jobs could be created by 2020 as a consequence of increased energy production. Of those new jobs, some 600,000 would probably be devoted to oil and gas extraction while 1.1 million would be generated to meet demand in related industrial and manufacturing sectors.

* National unemployment could subsequently decline by up to 1.1 percent.

* The current account deficit could shrink by 80 to 90 percent due to energy exports at an already low level of production. Citi analysts predict that the current account balance could move from -3.0 percent of GDP to -0.6 percent of GDP by 2020.

* The value of the dollar could jump by 1.6 to 5.4 percent, primarily based on changes in the current account balance.

* What's more, risks to the U.S.—in particular, geopolitical risks—would dramatically decrease. A domestic or continental energy boom would diminish the importance of conflict within and tensions involving the Middle East, as the U.S. would become significantly more energy independent.

* Finally, Citi analysts note that this could lead to a considerable decline in oil prices.

[...]