THE Crude Oil Price Watch Thread

[bratticus]

Iran denies Greece major oil shipment - report
RT / February 26, 2012

Western powers have been putting pressure on Iran by crippling its oil export since December, when a ban on Iranian oil was issued by the US. The EU, which unlike the US buys considerable amount of crude from Iran, joined the sanctions in late January. But it allowed import to continue for six months to allow European refineries find new supply routes and possibly to adjust to different brands of crude.

Tehran however pulled the rug from under European’s feet by banning export to some EU countries ahead of the scheduled cut. On February 19, it officially denied export to Britain and France, the two key sponsors of the EU sanctions.

By staggering the cut offs to one new nation every week Iran can cut losses since the cost of their crude goes up compensating for the reduced volumes sold.

[dolanbaker]

It also gives them a chance to find replacement customers or increase contracts with existing ones without interruption to the supply chain. Very unlikely that any of that oil will be re-routed back to the west after this situation is resolved, without an invasion of course!

[eXpat]

OK Shit just got REAL!!!!!
Is Iran Conflict Increasing Sausage Costs in Germany?

For centuries, the citizens of Nuremberg have celebrated their petite bratwurst, which are often served up by the half dozen on heart-shaped plates.

But one local producer says his costs have nearly tripled in the past 18 months, due to the rising costs of one key ingredient: sheep's intestines from Iran.

The famous Nuremberg bratwurst is finger-sized, filled with minced pork meat, spiced with marjoram, and stuffed into sheep's intestines.

Over the centuries those intestines have come from Iran to local butchers in the Bavarian city. But instability in Iran and rising prices have driven the cost of producing the well-known bratwurst up, and could force some local producers to look for alternative sources.

Claus Steiner, a master butcher whose family has been in the business since 1975, says he has been stockpiling sheep intestines in anticipation of further rising costs.

According to Steiner, 90 meters (295 feet) of the sausage skins, which would be enough for 1,000 of the tiny bratwurst, cost about €6.30 ($8.44) in the summer of 2010, but now costs about €17.20.

"There are other countries of origin," he says, including Turkey and New Zealand. "But traditionally the best sheep's intestines come from Iran."

http://abcnews.go.com/International/iran-conflict-increasing-sausage-costs/story?id=15785566#.T0p5G3m-aSo
Wehrmacht has invaded whole countries for less than this!! BOMB IRAN NOW!!

[babystrangeloop]

FACTBOX-Iran's crude oil buyers in Asia, Europe
Reuters / February 27, 2012

Code: Select all

Iran's Oil Exports to Europe     
Figures in thousands of barrels per day based on industry and Reuters estimates.     
Customer            Country   Volume 2012  Volume 2011    
Tupras              Turkey      200         200    
Total               France        0         100    
Shell               UK/NL        30         100    
Hellenic            Greece       30          80    
Cepsa               Spain        50          70    
Motor Oil           Greece        0          60    
Repsol              Spain        15          30    
ERG                 Italy        30          30    
Iplom               Italy        30          30    
ENI                 Italy        20          20    
Saras               Italy        20          20   
        
TOTAL                           425         740    

So Iran's oil exports to Greece have fallen from 80 + 60 = 140 thousand barrels/day to 30 thousand barrels a day according to that Reuters report.

MP: Iran's Decision to Stop Crude Supplies to Greece Serves National Interests
FARS / February 28, 2012

"Not supplying crude to Greece was in fact an executive planning and arrangement made by the National Iranian Oil Company and was in line with fortifying the national interests and pride," member of the parliament's Economic Commission Elyas Nadderan told FNA on Tuesday.

He added that the oil ministry has taken the decision based on the authority vested in the ministry by senior Islamic Republic officials.

"For sure, that is a positive action because national interests should be defended and protected," the lawmaker said.

On Sunday, a Greek tanker returned home unloaded after Iran refrained from supplying crude oil to the crisis hit European state.

Iran refrained from supplying the 500,000-barrel cargo to the Greek tanker which was due to deliver it to Hellenic Petroleum refinery. ...

FARS reiterated that they had not sold crude to Hellenic Petroleum. They named Elyas Nadderan (A.K.A. Elyas Naderan) as having spoken about this.

[babystrangeloop]

Greek tanker sinks off Athens, one missing
Lefteris Papadimas / Reuters / March 5, 2012

He said the ship was carrying 1,800 tonnes of crude oil and 235 tonnes of diesel.

Was the diesel cargo or fuel for hauling the crude?

"Iran didn't refuse it, it just sunk that's all"

1800 tonnes * 7.33 = 13194.00 barrels. Admittedly smaller than the 500,000 barrels but who knows?

[babystrangeloop]

EU Oil Sanctions to Increase Iran's Oil Revenues $10bln
FARS / March 6, 2012

One month after the EU decision to impose an oil ban on supplies from Iran, many international energy analysts have come to describe the decision as an inexperienced and immature move which will hit a heavy blow to the EU nations and inflict huge economic losses on the European states.

This is while the price of Iran's oil has reached $125 in recent days which shows a 20-dollar increase in one month. Analysts also predict that crude prices in the world will further witness increase in the coming months. ...

... Following the move, Tehran summoned the ambassadors of Italy, Spain, France, Greece, Portugal and the Netherlands to protest at the EU's unilateral sanctions against Tehran over its peaceful nuclear program, and warned them that it would soon stop oil exports to these countries if they do not reverse their decision.

Tehran then cut oil supplies to Britain and France in February. Later last month Iran stopped crude delivery to Greece.

Greece would be particularly affected by oil sanctions as other exporters have refused to deal with Greek traders. According to official reports, previous suppliers of crude oil, Russia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, have stopped trading with Greece due to precautionary measures in case Greece is unable to pay, even though thus far no payments have been reneged on. But, Iran has extended credit to Greece, which few other oil exporters are willing to do. ...

FARS re-iterates for the second time the Greece was cut off.

[babystrangeloop]

Petrolina stations closed today
Cyprus Mail / March 6, 2012

ALL Petrolina-Agip petrol stations will be shut today over a disagreement with the oil company.

[Graeme]

IEA: Expect Oil Market Volatility

For all you peak oil theorists out there: Saudi Arabia’s production is at 30-year highs, it doesn’t seem to be making up for shortfalls as sanctions put a squeeze on Iran’s oil output – and lumpy supply stats seem to be in the offing in a world full of turmoil.

The price of the U.S. crude benchmark is little changed today at $106.62 per barrel.

Shares of ExxonMobil (XOM) are off slightly today, down 29 cents, or 0.37%, to $86.56. Among large U.S. producers, Chevron (CVX) and Anadarko Petroleum (APC) showed the biggest gains, while others were up slightly including ConocoPhillips (COP) and Marathon Petroleum (MRO).

Oil supplies showed a 200,000 barrel-per-day decline in February, according to Wednesday’s International Energy Agency (IEA) update. The IEA sees 2012 oil demand growth unchanged at a 0.9% increase in millions of barrels per day. It also noted that OPEC February output reached a post-2008 high, with Saudi Arabia producing 10 million barrels per day.

The Wall Street Journal quotes the IEA as saying,

“Exports of Iranian crude could ultimately be curtailed by around 800,000 to 1 million barrels a day from midyear onwards … Almost all of Iran’s buyers will inevitably scale back volumes in order to avoid falling foul of sanctions.”

The IEA said “concerns over the global economy provide a ceiling for prices” though volatility is the order of the day. Here’s insight on oil price volatility history, relative to the S&P 500 from the Chicago Board Options Exchange, which offers any number of ways to trade oil price dips and spikes.

barrons

[peripato]

IEA: Expect Oil Market Volatility

For all you peak oil theorists out there: Saudi Arabia’s production is at 30-year highs, it doesn’t seem to be making up for shortfalls as sanctions put a squeeze on Iran’s oil output – and lumpy supply stats seem to be in the offing in a world full of turmoil.

The price of the U.S. crude benchmark is little changed today at $106.62 per barrel.<snip>

barrons

You mean that SA does not have all that spare capacity the WSJ and other snot-nosed establishment rags and wankers keep banging on about?

And what about all that fracking and sh*t? Haven't seen any of that taking the shine off prices either.

Peak Oil. You know it's real...

[SeaGypsy]

Funny, I seem to recall at the start of the year they had top bottom and actual price for the year at $99 or thereabouts. 3 months later, nothing has changed in the news, but now it's gonna be volatile? They are so full of it.

[peripato]

Funny, I seem to recall at the start of the year they had top bottom and actual price for the year at $99 or thereabouts. 3 months later, nothing has changed in the news, but now it's gonna be volatile? They are so full of it.

Nature can "see" through the bullsh*t. To quote some movie;

"It can't be bargained with. It can't be reasoned with. It doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until you* are dead."

*Umm, not you of course personally, dear SG. But you get the drift I think?

[Graeme]

How to Handle Oil Price Volatility

Authors: Michael A. Levi, Senior Fellow for Energy and the Environment, Council on Foreign Relations Daniel P. Ahn, Adjunct Fellow for Energy Nicolas Loris, Energy Policy Analyst and Senior Research Fellow, The Heritage Foundation Daniel J. Weiss, Senior Fellow and Director of Climate Strategy, Center for American Progress Robert McNally, Founder and President, Rapidan Group

A recent spike in oil prices has the Obama administration considering whether to dip into strategic oil reserves to ease pain at the pump. What the United States should do to address oil price volatility is open for debate. Five experts weigh in:

CFR's Michael A. Levi says policymakers should focus responses along two dimensions: blunting volatility and helping consumers cope with the consequences. Similarly, CFR's Daniel P. Ahn says the oil market will feature "unavoidable price swings," and that managing volatility requires greater market transparency as well as engaging and cooperating with the oil market's leading consumer and producer countries.

Nicolas Loris of the Heritage Foundation focuses on opening up currently off-limits areas to domestic drilling, while Daniel J. Weiss at the Center for American Progress says the United States should modernize fuel economy standards and invest in alternative fuels, electric vehicles, and public transportation. Energy expert Robert McNally offers a suite of ideas, including giving the G20 more responsibility, reducing oil subsidies that inflate emerging market demand, and resisting the temptation to use strategic reserves to manage prices.

More detail here

[eXpat]

Is there still someone out there taking the sanctions seriousy?
Pakistan to purchase electricity from Iran: Gilani

CHINA: Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani on Sunday said that Pakistan will be purchasing 1100 megawatts of electricity from Iran, DawnNews reported.

Gilani stated this while talking to the Vice President of Iran Javad Mohammadizadeh in Boao, China.

He especially mentioned that the electricity being supplied from Iran to Pakistan’s Balochistan province would prove helpful in overcoming the energy shortage.

Gilani said that Pakistan wants cordial relations with all of its neighbours and everyone should work for peace in Afghanistan.

The prime minister further re-iterated that Pakistan considers Jundullah as a terror group and also said that Pakistan is interested in buying oil, gas and electricity from Iran and further discussed the projects with Iranian vice president.

Mohammadizadeh said that Iran and Pakistan are bound by centuries old traditions and ties and that he hoped for a prosperous future of the both nations.

http://www.dawn.com/2012/04/01/pakistan-to-purchase-electricity-from-iran-gilani.html

China rejects Obama's Iran oil import sanctions

China rejected President Barack Obama's decision to move forward with plans for sanctions on countries buying oil from Iran, saying Saturday that Washington had no right to unilaterally punish other nations.
...
China is one of the biggest importers of Iranian oil, and its Foreign Ministry reiterated its opposition to the U.S. moves.

"The Chinese side always opposes one country unilaterally imposing sanctions against another according to domestic law. Furthermore it does not accept the unilateral imposition of those sanctions on a third country," the ministry said in a brief statement Saturday.

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-03/D9TRD5T80.htm

[eXpat]

This is from today
Iran Halts Greek Oil Sales, May Cut Shell As Sanctions Bite

Iran stopped shipping oil to Greece and may halt supplies to Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSB.LN, RDSA, RDSB) over unpaid bills, Iran media said Friday, as the impact of sanctions widens. The news suggests a decline in Iranian oil exports last month may accelerate as banking sanctions add to an upcoming European ban on Tehran oil. That could lead to upward pressure on oil prices, which have recently surged to a four-year high.

The Mehr news agency said that, due to unpaid bills, Iran stopped deliveries to Greek refiners Hellenic Petroleum (ELPE.AT) and Motor Oil (MOH.AT). Greece has long been the European Union country relying the most on Iranian oil--sometimes for as much as a third of its supplies.

A spokesman for Motor Oil confirmed it had stopped buying Iranian oil and had found replacements.

The Mehr agency said Tehran may also cut shipments to Anglo-Dutch giant Shell because it hasn't paid for consignments equivalent to 8 million barrels since the beginning of 2012. It said Shell has already halved its Iran oil shipments to 100,000 barrels a day.

"If the situation continues, Iran could cut oil exports to Shell as it has to the Greek companies Hellenic Petroleum and Motor Oil after they failed to fulfill payment commitments," Mehr said.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/news/2012/04/06/iran-halts-greek-oil-sales-may-cut-shell-as-sanctions-bite/#ixzz1rPYG5H9J

[Plantagenet]

Is there still someone out there taking the sanctions seriously?

The Obama administration is still bound and determined to enforce their embargo.

When it was pointed out to them that global oil supplies are tight, and the price of oil may skyrocket if Iranian oil exports are blocked, the White House released this statement on April 6th:

"....there currently appears to be sufficient supply of non-Iranian oil to permit foreign countries to significantly reduce their import of Iranian oil, taking into account current estimates of demand, increased production by some countries, private inventories of crude oil and petroleum products, and available strategic petroleum reserves and in fact, many purchasers of Iranian crude oil have already reduced their purchases or announced they are in productive discussions with alternative suppliers."

Where exactly does the Obama administration think another 3 million barrels of oil per day is going to come from, if Iran is forced off the global export market?

[Tanada]

So long as Russia and China want Iran to export oil no embargo is going to be effective. China wants the oil for their own reserves, Russia wants to put a stick in the eye of the arrogant Americans (IMO) so there you go, the embargo is all talk.

[eXpat]

Fresh news, greeks are not alone, spaniars have been just cut as well...
UPDATE 1-Iran cuts oil exports to Spain - Press TV

(Reuters) - Iran has cut oil exports to Spain and may halt sales to Germany and Italy, Iran's English-language state television reported on Tuesday, days before Tehran takes part in crucial talks over its nuclear activities.

"Tehran has cut oil supply to Spain after stopping crude export to Greece as part of its counter-sanctions," Press TV said, citing unidentified sources.

No further details were immediately available. Earlier, Iranian Foreign Minister Rostam Qasemi confirmed weekend reports that oil sales to Greece had been halted.

In January, the European Union announced a total ban on purchasing Iranian crude, to be implemented in July. Member states have since scrambled to find alternative supplies.

Industry sources say Spain and Greece have significantly reduced imports in the last two months in anticipation of the embargo and because of increasing difficulties in making payments.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/10/iran-spain-oil-idUSL6E8FA3NN20120410
and
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/iran-escalates-again-cuts-oil-shipments-spain

[eXpat]

And now Germany:
Report: Iran halts oil exports to Germany in retaliation over EU embargo

TEHRAN, Iran — Iran’s official Press TV says the country has halted oil exports to Germany, a day after Tehran stopped crude exports to Spain and Greece.

The station says in a report Wednesday that Iran has cut the sale of crude to Germany as part of Tehran’s pre-emptive retaliation over an EU embargo that is to go into effect in July.
The EU imposed its sanctions over Tehran’s disputed nuclear program.

Iran has already stopped sales to Britain and France, and says it may also cut oil exports to Italy.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/report-iran-halts-oil-exports-to-germany-in-retaliation-over-eu-embargo/2012/04/11/gIQANI7FAT_story.html
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/235688.html

[Aslam1989]

Three Reasons Gas Prices are High, Number one/main reasons is Gasoline Prices Rise Due to Increased Crude Oil Costs.The Price of Oil is always affects every economical sectors word-wide. Isn't ?

[sparky]

.
This month the indicators are rather " soft "
the opec basket is down by 5$ since the Iran crude oil sanctions have been imposed

It looks like the drop in price is created by the Iranians having to heavily discount prices to get customers