Here Comes The Double Dip Pt. 2

[dsula]

SG, tell us about this 'great service' he provides? I'm all ears.............

He's more often right than the doomers.
Edit: And I forgot to add, OF2 + DP make this thread one of the best there is. I'm only sorry that Shorty ain't here anymore, he was stirring up some trouble, that was fun.

[joewp]

I think those that find fiat currency and debt to be generally "wrong"; have a hard time accepting that the Fed really did manage to pull off price stability through the period of a hard contraction and then doubled down on awesome by finessing the return of inflationary pressure in the face of a nominal economic expansion.

Prices held.

I don't have trouble accepting the Fed pumped "liquidity" into the markets to support prices when the banks stopped lending. What I have a hard time with is that the banks created the bubble and the effects of the burst hard to be dealt with by further inflating the money supply, which resulted in..

Only problem is that a large number of folks lost significant net worth and income, and haven't recovered it yet; matched against an above CPI increase in the cost of food and fuel. That an increase in the cost of fuel is a desired objective of the current administration, makes it less likely that any relief will be coming to those who lost ground across the recession. People kinda "feel" strong inflation, because they care now about prices they didn't care about before, even if the prices really haven't changed all that much. (other than fuel of course).

Oh, and don't forget food too. I do the shopping for the family and what used to cost $80-$90 per week last Summer now costs $100-$120 per week. Instead of getting into his helicopter, Ben decided to spread the new money among his Wall Street banker cronies, pushing up prices on those commodities not part of the "core inflation" number so the Fed looked good.

Don't worry, as demand destruction kicks in (people starve to death, or start eating dirt), food prices should come down.

[OilFinder2]

Auto parts suppliers hiring as fast as they can

Detroit automakers are creating thousands of new jobs amid a sales boom. And as they expand, their suppliers are racing to keep up, adding tens of thousands of new jobs.

At Bridgewater Interiors in Warren, Mich., for example, the pace is intense. Hundreds of union employees scurry to fill a growing list of orders. The factory floor is packed with stacks of foam cushions, seat covers and headrests.

Vice President Ron Hall, wearing safety glasses and a bright yellow vest, provides a tour. He points out a large, blinking screen overhead. It's linked to a Ford Motor Co. truck plant. That electronic information enables Ford to tell Bridgewater exactly what kind of seats it needs for each truck moving down the auto company's assembly line 30 miles away.

[...]

A Shortage Of Workers

In a dramatic reversal, many suppliers, after improving efficiency — through downsizing and buyouts — find themselves short-handed. At the same time, when it comes to hiring new people, "we're trying to be very careful," said Jerry Kurfess, head of human resources at MACI.

With the memory of the Great Recession still so fresh, companies are still wary about hiring too freely.

But McAlinden says there actually is a danger of having a shortage of parts and workers. He says the supplier industry will need 174,000 additional workers by 2015, and the pace of hiring right now appears to be too slow.

[...]

[OilFinder2]

Jobs Recovery Revives U.S. Furniture Sales

More Americans are stretching out on new sofas as they settle into recently purchased homes, amid an improving outlook for employment.

Furniture sales grew 8.3 percent last month from a year earlier, following the largest increase since July 2000 in January, according to Census Bureau data. Meanwhile, existing single-family homes sold at an annual rate of 4.1 million in January, the most in almost two years, based on data from the National Association of Realtors.

Demand “appears to be rebounding” as Americans regain confidence in the economy, said Ken Smith, managing partner of accounting firm SmithLeonard PLLC. “If consumers are more comfortable with their job security, it makes them a little more willing to spend.”

[...]

[eXpat]

SG, tell us about this 'great service' he provides? I'm all ears.............

He's more often right than the doomers.
Edit: And I forgot to add, OF2 + DP make this thread one of the best there is. I'm only sorry that Shorty ain't here anymore, he was stirring up some trouble, that was fun.

Are you serious?. Are you seriously saying that the economy is better now than say, 2005? And what is the use to have someone like Shorty regurgitating something that has been debunked 1000's times before?

[dolanbaker]

SG, tell us about this 'great service' he provides? I'm all ears.............

He's more often right than the doomers.
Edit: And I forgot to add, OF2 + DP make this thread one of the best there is. I'm only sorry that Shorty ain't here anymore, he was stirring up some trouble, that was fun.

Are you serious?. Are you seriously saying that the economy is better now than say, 2005? And what is the use to have someone like Shorty regurgitating something that has been debunked 1000's times before?

It depends on where the goalposts are when you make the call, as far as OF2 is concerned, he's correct when he says that things are better when referenced to 2009.

The problem is that overall things are still worse than 2005 when you consider all the elements that make up an economy.

[OilFinder2]

GOLD IN FREE-FALL ON FED POLICY DECISION, AS FOMC IMPROVES VIEW OF ECONOMY

Gold futures were on track for a third straight session of losses on Wednesday as risk appetite returned to markets and investors ploughed into equities.

Gold traders also continued to react negatively to Tuesday’s Federal Reserve policy statement and its moderately positive views of the U.S. economy.

That buried any hopes of more monetary easing in the short term and took away one of the main pillars of support for the metal. A higher dollar was also making victims among commodities, with oil futures trading lower and silver futures off 4%.

Gold for April delivery dropped $49.50, or 2.9%, to $1,645 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Gold would need to close at least around $1,650 to prevent even deeper losses in the short term, said Charles Nedoss, a senior market strategist with Olympus Futures in Chicago.

[...]

[dolanbaker]

Gold was around $1400 in March 2011.



Just sayin!

[SeaGypsy]

'Freefall'? Hypebole.

[AgentR11]

Oh, and don't forget food too. I do the shopping for the family and what used to cost $80-$90 per week last Summer now costs $100-$120 per week. Instead of getting into his helicopter, Ben decided to spread the new money among his Wall Street banker cronies, pushing up prices on those commodities not part of the "core inflation" number so the Fed looked good.

Don't worry, as demand destruction kicks in (people starve to death, or start eating dirt), food prices should come down.

I haven't forgotten food, as it was in my first line of comment; my point is that this result is not unintended nor undesired by those in power. Obama admits as much himself concerning fuel; though won't say the same on food; though they generally come out of the same "basket" of money for the lower 50%. The bad thing for the lower half, is that I'm not at all sure that it is bad for the economy as a whole if they are spending their few discretionary dollars on gruel, as opposed to beer, gas, and cheap gadgets. Doubly so, since the gruel is likely US grown, whereas the gas and gadgets are to greater or lesser extents, imported. Kinda harsh, but I see little that points to the contrary.

[Repent]

There will come a time when massive hiring; booming demand, and reckless consumption will be considered a BAD thing.

As we slowly move from a 'Cowboy economy' to a 'Spaceship economy'. More consumption is a bad. Greater conservation is a good. Let's say the economy does grow signifigantly- is this a good thing? Using oil faster, cutting down forests faster, depleting fisheres and soils faster. Not to metion setting up a social expecation of limitless growth and expansion.

Mike Ruppert put out a charge recently, to loosely paraphrase, 'From this point on to anyone on our side of the line, that is aware of the truth; any public leaders entolling the 'G' word for more 'Growth' is the enemy- these are the people we need to confront with reality'.

[OilFinder2]

U.S. jobless claims match four-year low: Applications for benefits decline by 14,000 to 351,000

The number of people who filed applications for U.S. unemployment benefits fell by 14,000 last week and matched a four-year low, the Labor Department said Thursday.

Initial claims dropped to a seasonally adjusted 351,000 from 365,000, the government reported. Claims from the prior week were revised up from 362,000.

The level of claims is an indicator of whether layoffs are rising or falling. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had estimated claims would fall to 355,000 in the week ended March 10.

The four-week average of claims, meanwhile, was unchanged at 355,750. The monthly average provides a more accurate view of labor-market trends by reducing week-to-week volatility caused by seasonal quirks.

Jobless claims have settled in a narrow range — from 350,000 to 380,000 — over the past few months. That’s a level historically associated with a modest increase in hiring and a gradually improving jobs market.

New applications for jobless benefits have fallen under 400,000 in all but two weeks since December, twice falling to as low as 351,000. In the same span, U.S. employment has climbed by more than 200,000 a month, reflecting the fastest burst of permanent job growth since the recession ended in 2009.

[...]

[OilFinder2]

New York factory index at 21-month high

A measure of New York-area manufacturing hit at a 21-month high in March, according to data released Thursday, an indication of the improving conditions at U.S. factories.

The Empire State manufacturing index rose to 20.2 in March, its highest level since June 2010, the New York Federal Reserve Bank said Thursday.

This is the fourth straight increase after the index had been stuck near zero from June through November.

The gain in March surprised analysts. Economists polled by MarketWatch expected the index to slip to 17.7 in March.

Underlying conditions were mixed.

The new orders and shipment indices retreated slightly in March.

The new orders index slipped to 6.8 in March from 9.7 in February. The shipments index fell to 18.2 from 22.8 in the prior month. Read the full report.

The two readings on employment were stronger.

The index for the number of employees increased to 13.6 in March from 11.8 in February.

The inventories index rose to zero from negative 4.7, suggesting that inventory levels held steady.

There were hints of rising inflationary pressure in the report. The index for prices paid surged by 25 points to 50.6, its highest level since last June.

A reading of expected conditions in six-months retreated slightly for the second straight month.

[...]

[OilFinder2]

Philadelphia-Area Factory Index Increases to an 11-Month High

Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region expanded in March at the fastest pace in almost a year as factory employment picked up.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index increased to 12.5 this month, in line with projections, from 10.2 in February. Economists forecast the gauge would rise to 12, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. Readings greater than zero signal expansion in the area covering eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware.

Manufacturers are positioned to keep expanding as companies rebuild stockpiles and invest in new equipment. What’s more, labor market gains may help bolster consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy, and further propel the industry.

“Manufacturing has been leading the economy in recent quarters,” Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group Inc., said before the report. “Exports bear watching given the troubles in Europe.”

Estimates from the 59 economists surveyed for the Philadelphia Fed index ranged from 6 to 18.5.

[...]

[OilFinder2]

S&P 500 tops 1,400 for the first time since 2008

Stocks finished higher Thursday, with the S&P 500 topping the 1,400 mark for the first time in nearly four years, as investors considered a batch of better-than-expected economic news.

Reports showed that jobless claims are at their lowest level in four years, manufacturing activity continues to expand and inflation remains tame.

"The economic data has dramatically improved over the last couple of months," said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research. "The jobs numbers are gradually getting better, and that's the most important factor for the economy and stock market."

[...]

[Lore]

Market volumes have been low as the feel good rally is being led by traders and not investors. The bear wedge is in place.

[OilFinder2]

Still awaiting that delfationary depression!


Consumer Prices in U.S. Rose in February as Gasoline Jumped

The cost of living in the U.S. rose in February by the most in 10 months, reflecting a jump in gasoline that failed to spread to other goods and services.

The consumer-price index climbed 0.4 percent, matching the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, after increasing 0.2 percent the prior month, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. The so-called core measure, which excludes more volatile food and energy costs, climbed 0.1 percent, less than projected.

The biggest jump in gasoline in more than a year accounted for about 80 percent of the increase in prices last month, leaving households with less money to spend on other goods and services. Federal Reserve policy makers say the advance in fuel costs will be temporary, and most see little risk inflation will flare out of control as unemployment exceeds 8 percent.

[...]

[OilFinder2]

This was reported as no change, but January was revised upward from no change to +0.4%, so it's an increase since last month's report anyway.

I think the decrease in mining is due largely to decreases in coal and natural gas.



Industrial Production in U.S. Was Little Changed in February

Industrial production in the U.S. was little changed in February, reflecting slower manufacturing and a decline in mining.

The output at factories, mines and utilities compared with a median projection for a 0.4 percent gain in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. January production was revised to a 0.4 percent increase, previously reported as no change, figures from the Federal Reserve showed today in Washington. Factory production, which makes up about 75 percent of total output, rose at the slowest pace in three months.

Higher energy costs and less European demand for U.S. exports may be prompting some manufacturers to limit production. At the same time, growth in the industry at the forefront of the expansion will probably be sustained on the heels of stronger retail sales and corporate investment in new equipment.

[...]

[Daniel_Plainview]

CBO: Exploding debt under Obama policies

The Congressional Budget Office said Friday that President Barack Obama’s tax and spending policies will yield $6.4 trillion in deficits over the next decade, more than double the shortfall in CBO’s own fiscal baseline — even after taking credit for reduced war costs.

House Republicans, slated to unveil their own plan next week, are sure to seize on the numbers, but more than two-thirds of the $3.5 trillion disparity can be explained by what is still a rich diet of tax breaks continued under the Obama plan.

Indeed, in the case of discretionary appropriations, CBO scores the president as coming in about $4 billion under the $1.047 trillion target set by the Budget Control Act last summer. And within these confines, the biggest discrepancy is that his budget is $2 billion over the caps for security programs at the expense of domestic priorities.

That said, the picture is grim, and even if Obama were to get his way on all fronts, the federal debt held by the public would nearly double again from $10.1 trillion at the end of 2011 to $18.8 trillion at the end of 2022.

For the current fiscal year ending Sept. 30, CBO is now projecting a shortfall of $1.3 trillion. In fiscal 2013, the deficit will still hover near the $1 trillion mark — about $977 billion. And while it will fall to 2.5 percent of GDP by 2017, it then begins to grow again to 3 percent of GDP by 2022.

In order to sustain the illusion of real growth and prosperity, the US govt has relied upon 3 basic principles: (1) increase the national debt exponentially / parabolically; (2) fundamentally alter the presentation of employment data by ignoring that 90% of new jobs are part-time/temp, and by ignoring that unprecedented numbers of discouraged workers are vacating the workforce; and (3) blow as many bubbles as possible using ZIRP, QE, "operation twist," etc.

Even using the highly optimistic CBO data, and even ignoring the effects of peak oil ... the outlook is far beyond dire and approaching terminal/lethal.

[AgentR11]

I used to look at graphs like that and be alarmed, but I'm thinking now that they are very misleading. A bump of x in 1920 is the same sized x in 2012, but $x in 1920 would buy substantially more gold, silver, labor, corn, wheat, etc, that $x in 2012. Basic nature of inflation. If you plotted that curve above relative to something sane, say like a 5yr running average of gold; it would be much, much flatter.

If you want to plot it, time against an inflating fiat currency, try year vs ln($outlay). Should still show solid growth in government, as there are more warm bodies, and more physical assets in production and in need of services, and more stuff that government does.

Finally, its suggested that there is something lethal about the above chart. Far from it. Its perfectly fine; though the deficit part should probably be restrained some at this point. If we need inflation to keep luxury central running, then don't expect anything else, and never assume a limit exists. There is nothing evil about a cup of coffee being priced at $150 at McDonalds. They're just numbers. Japanese have been paying 100+ Yen for coffee (we won't discuss the crime of cold coffee in cans from vending machines, but I digress...) for ages now, they seem no worse off for the experience.