[Revi]

Here's an article from ZH that made me laugh, but it may make us all cry next winter:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/obama-pro ... -elections

[Plantagenet]

Its already clear that Obama plans out every policy decision and every confrontation with the congress on the basis of what polls well and will help him win the 2012 election.

Why shouldn't Obama also schedule in foreign wars on the basis of what polls well and will help him win re-election.

[careinke]

Here's an article from ZH that made me laugh, but it may make us all cry next winter:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/obama-pro ... -elections

I honestly hope this is not true.

[Shaved Monkey]

This is about as clever as arming the mujahideen.
Israel isn't getting any more moderate, its future is going to have far more extremist religious nut jobs running the place.
They will out breed the moderates.

[SeaGypsy]

There are very many ways this could all go wrong. Did anyone else see Netanyahu saying "....The USA is Israel and Israel IS the USA"?
The guy is a shocker. I find Israel's arrogance appalling, Netanyahu being a totally classic example.

To what extent does he really expect the US to back up his paranoid reactionary policy? Bunker busters? Boots on the ground? After the recent and current debacle in Iraq and Afghanistan?

Bunker busters alone cannot be a real policy. Most likely the weapon of choice would be the US drone fleet. These things are starting to really upset people. There is building resentment around the world to this kind of warfare, with attempts at treaties to control them at least a decade out to any chance of completion. Yet the US seems or acts as if it is oblivious to this resentment.

If this goes ahead, the US gets involved at great peril to Israel first, itself second. There is no way to account for all contingencies, reactions by the other nuke states for instance.

[Sixstrings]

Its already clear that Obama plans out every policy decision and every confrontation with the congress on the basis of what polls well and will help him win the 2012 election.

I agree with you on this one, Plant. Yes it sounds slimy -- scheduling an arms deal in exchange for no war until AFTER the election and AFTER the American people have a chance to vote on what are supposed to be the issues at hand.

Ironically though..

He's just saying he'll be a Republican after the election, Plant, so why are YOU bothered? He'll approve that pipeline too, *after* the election. You should just vote Obama, if Romney wins he has to worry about re-election and will tack to the left -- vote Obama if you want a Republican, you'll get all you want, you'll get your war you'll get that pipeline just be patient and vote Obama.

[Pretorian]

What if someone wants a Democrat? He should vote for Romney then?

[Sixstrings]

What if someone wants a Democrat? He should vote for Romney then?

Bingo. Crazy, eh?

Who got a medicare prescription drug benefit passed, was it a Dem? Nope. George W. Bush. Massive expansion of entitlement, and it was a Republican. Similarly, if Romney wins he too will likely tack left and do some new lefty stuff just like Bush did in the first term.

The Right keeps saying Romney is a secret liberal.

The Left keeps saying Obama is a Republican.

Maybe both are right.

[Plantagenet]

-- vote Obama .... you'll get your war

So it appears based on this latest news.

When Bush wanted to invade Iraq he asked Congress to approve the war and he did it just before the 2002 election. Congress debated and and then voted authorization for war on October 16th, 2002----just two weeks before the 2002 election.

In contrast, it appears that Obama has traded a secret commitment that the US will help attack Israel to Iran in exchange for a promise that the war won't start until after the 2012 election.

Obama is a pretty sneaky dude.


I'm against war in Iran (wink wink nod nod)

[Keith_McClary]

The Media and Iran

Not once, in reporting on these threats of aggressive war by Israel and/or the United States, has any major U.S. news organization, in print or on the air, included any reference to the U.N. Charter or to the fact that what is being contemplated is an invasion by Israel or the United States of a country that has not even been shown to be producing or planning to produce a nuclear weapon, much less to be in possession of one. Not once, in any of these daily reports on the Iran “crisis,” has any report by these news organizations — including National Public Radio — interviewed a source who could point out that what is being discussed is the most serious of all war crimes: the crime against peace (the same crime that led to the hanging, after World War II, of several military leaders in Japan and Germany).

The law itself is crystal clear. Under the UN Charter it is the ultimate war crime for a nation to initiate an aggressive war against another country that has not attacked it or that does not pose an “imminent threat” of attack. And given that even Israeli and US intelligence officials concede that Iran is not at this time making a bomb, and thus cannot hope to have a working one even a year from now were they to begin a crash program, there is simply no imminent threat.
...
It’s as though we were siting in Germany in 1938, reading articles in the local newspapers speculating about how Germany’s future attack on Poland would be conducted, or when and how the Blitzkrieg against the Low Countries would play out.
...
a US attack on Iran would be both a war crime and a violation of US law. As he explains, since the US is a signatory of the UN Charter–a treaty ratified by the Senate — its provisions banning aggressive wars have become, under Article II of the US Constitution, an integral part of US law.

[Revi]

We are a desperate people and desperate people do desperate things. Obama is just the head of a nation of people who are so addicted to oil that we'll do anything to get more of it. Never mind that a lot of it is just used to keep us from being bored. We will make deals. I'm sure there are lots of deals being made all over the place that we don't know about. At least we know what this one entails.

[SeaGypsy]

I'm sure there are lots of deals being made all over the place that we don't know about. At least we know what this one entails.

Very optimistic Revi....
Part a I can buy, but 'knowing what this entails'?

There is no way to predict what will come of this if it goes ahead.
Israel is already a pariah in it's region, detested for it's cry-baby attitude to the USA for big brother backup. The US is detested for it's use of space age technology against WW2 era technology, in wars amounting to acts of invasion and aggression.

Guaranteed China and Russia will veto attempts at legalizing this impending war of aggression. Lies will be the basis of an invasion or bunker bomb drop; like they have been for the previous and ongoing war in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The assumption by the USA and Israel, that somehow they can continue to act like this with impunity, put simply/ stinks.

[Sixstrings]

In contrast, it appears that Obama has traded a secret commitment that the US will help attack Israel to Iran in exchange for a promise that the war won't start until after the 2012 election.

Obama is a pretty sneaky dude.

We already sell Israel weapons. For a very long time now, since, the beginning of that nation state.

We needn't declare war because a nation we sold weapons to wants to go use those weapons. That's their business. We sell weapons to lots of folks. Heck, we sold a lot of weapons to Iran back in the day and they still have the Tomcats:



The good news is they don't have PARTS for those Tomcats so they just sit on them. But I digress..

The issue at hand is that Israel wants our go-ahead to do a unilateral strike, and they want some weaponry tailored to that strike. Polls in Israel show 60% of the people are against Israel going it alone. They want us in on it too.

Meanwhile the rest of the world remembers Iraq and they're not keen on war with Iran. I don't see how Israel really can launch a unilateral strike, there would be international repercussions for them so -- this is going to continue to be a diplomatic chess game. We can't invade and occupy every nation that gets nukes. This situation is nothing new we've been in the nuclear age since the '50s. Deterrence works.. short of worldwide occupation by Allied forces (who would the allies even be, Europe's not on board for war, China and Russia block us at the UN would we go to war with THEM too over Iran?), we can't ever guarantee someone won't get a nuke.

Ultimately, just be glad the Cold War is over -- that was truly, truly dangerous -- thousands of ICBMs pointed at every one of our cities.

EDIT: to be clear, I don't want Iran having a nuke either but.. there's some doubt whether they really want a nuke or if this is gamesmanship.. also Israel has nukes and objectively Iran is surrounded by US / allies so you can see why they're paranoid.. whatever we do, it has to be approved internationally since so many nations are going to be perturbed by the oil and shipping lane disruption.

You guys may all want war right now right this second, but the reality is we can't just do that -- would you want Russia going around with a sledghammer invading and occupying to effect its foreign policy? Or China? Keep in mind, Iran doesn't have a nuke. IF they get close, then we could do a unilateral strike at that time. Also have you all forgotten North Korea has nukes? They're batshit crazy over there you know, shouldn't we be going to war with them too? Or is war really nasty stuff and we're sort of stuck with deterrence?

US can't go to war with and occupy everyone. Nuclear non-proliferation has to be an international effort, even if we wanted to Russia and China isn't going to let us occupy everybody.

This whole thing is just geopolitics and chess anyway, Iran doesn't want nuclear war -- that's assured destruction for them.

[SeaGypsy]

Let's just say Iran comes out today and performs a nuclear test, showing that indeed Israel wasn't just paranoid. What then? They know if they used a nuke against Israel, the US would flatten the entire country in an instant. So would they do it? Martyr the entire nation to delete Israel? Nope. This is a smokescreen about the oil under the ground in Iran.

[Keith_McClary]

objectively Iran is surrounded by US / allies

Maps have been posted showing "bases" in Turkey, Afghanistan, Pakistan and some central Asian -stans, but I don't think these would be usable to attack Iran. The only serious air/naval bases are in the Gulf potentates (none in KSA) which have said they are not keen on getting into a war with Iran (could end badly for the ruling poo-bahs).

The maps don't show an unofficial US base hosted by the settler ethnocracy in Palestine.

[Plantagenet]

We already sell Israel weapons. For a very long time now, since, the beginning of that nation state.

We needn't declare war because a nation we sold weapons to wants to go use those weapons. That's their business.

So we can't be blamed...we're just the friendly neighborhood arms merchant?

[Revi]

We already sell Israel weapons. For a very long time now, since, the beginning of that nation state.

We needn't declare war because a nation we sold weapons to wants to go use those weapons. That's their business.

So we can't be blamed...we're just the friendly neighborhood arms merchant?

Yes, I guess we are.

[Sixstrings]

We already sell Israel weapons. For a very long time now, since, the beginning of that nation state.

We needn't declare war because a nation we sold weapons to wants to go use those weapons. That's their business.

So we can't be blamed...we're just the friendly neighborhood arms merchant?

I was being tongue in cheek.

You're sounding anti-war Plant, but you know the Republican position here -- they're arguing Israel shouldn't even need our green light to do a unilateral strike. Conservatives want to sell them all the weapons they want, and give them carte blanche. Conservatives have been talking bomb bomb bomb Iran since the last presidential election.

Again I ask you, by this logic, do you want war with North Korea right now? North Koreans are batsh*t crazy, Plant, and they actually have nukes and they're on missiles. So what do we do here. Go ahead and fight a war to avoid having to fight a war? Would you want to see maybe a million South Korean civilian deaths? Our small detachment of soldiers would be wiped out too. It would be a mess. War is serious business. Supposedly Iraq was all about a bit of yellow cake uranium or whatever that didn't even exist. Since going to war, a million Iraqi civilian men women and children died.

I don't even know what the latest numbers are for US military deaths -- we have a lot of wounded too though, young guys missing legs, lot of traumatic brain injuries, lots of PTSD. It's in the news now, one solider in Afghanistan flipped out walked off the base and shot up a village.

We need to get out of these wars, Plant, we can't go remaking the world in our image by force. I don't think we can afford it for one thing, not without a lot more money printing and therefore inflation. War with Iran will frack up shipping lanes and the oil markets. War would only ensure Israel would be attacked -- I don't see the logic here, going to war because you may be attacked just means you will be attacked. Iran will obviously respond if Israel attacks them. I don't get this, attack first because you may be attacked in the future.

Bottom line.. there are things the international community can do to force Iran's hand, like the talk of cutting them out of international banking. War is not necessary. If we can't get international agreement then that's just how it goes we can't go to war on our own -- would you want Russia free to throw its weight around? Should they be free to regime change Georgia? I'm sure they can come up with all kinds of unilateral reasons.

Think, Plant. A world of unilateral wars really isn't for the best. Maybe you are anti-war, but your predominating party position is for war with Iran. Getting back to arms dealing, there is US and old Soviet weaponry all over the planet. Europeans sell arms too. Right now Iran has F-14 Tomcats we sold them from back when they were our ally. That's a whole other thread, but that country went radical Islam because they had a revolution against a brutal dictator that we propped up in the first place. It just never ends. Our enemies now are the result of what we had to do in the Cold War. So ok we regime change all these new enemies, then we'll have a new crop of enemies.

Maybe neutrality is the answer. These problems we have are the problems of Empire and we can't afford that anymore and for the foreseeable future there's no big bad Soviet to worry about so why don't we just stay home and chill out with the wars.

[Plantagenet]

Six...I enjoy chatting with you. I think we actaully agree on the need for peace and the wrongheadedness of unilateral wars. However, you seem primarily concerned with what the Republicans say, while I don't especially care what the democrats say----I'm more concerned with what they actually do.

Conservatives ...Israel...... weapons

Conservatives say Israel shuld be given weapons. However, Obama (a liberal dem) reportedly actually cut a secret deal to give Israel bunker busters and have the USAF refuel the Israeli bombers during the mission.

I ask you... do you want war with North Korea right now?

Of course not.

It's in the news now, one solider in Afghanistan flipped out walked off the base and shot up a village....We need to get out of these wars, Plant,

I agree with you 100% Its one of the reasons I so strongly oppose Obama. Obama's says he is against war, but what Obama actually did is expand the war and prop up the corrupt Karzai regime with Americans live and treasure. Obamas strategy of expanding the war has proven to be truly stupid and an utter failure. Both conventional US tactics and stupid faux pas like apologizing for burning Korans and now this maniac murdering civilians just cause outrage and just feeds the Taliban resistance even more

Think, Plant....Maybe you are anti-war, but your predominating party position is for war with Iran.

Repubilcans say they support Israel, but Again, it is your party, Obama and the dems, who actually expanded the war in Afghanistan and now have actually cut a deal with Israel to start a war with Iran.


Have a great day, SIX!