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New High of Liquid Fuel Production?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

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Re: New High of Liquid Fuel Production?

Unread postby babystrangeloop » Wed 15 Feb 2012, 06:24:49

AirlinePilot wrote:While the wheels have decidedly not come off the tracks,

According to whom? MF Global's customers? The National Park Service (think occupy DC)? Governor Cuomo and Governor Christie who reside over the failure to erect a building to fill the gap at WTC? Mayor Linda Thompson of the capital city of Pennsylvania who resides over a muni bond default and $310 million in debt? No, there's no wheels coming off any tracks. It's all just business as usual.
Bankrupt Jefferson County, Alabama, Authorizes Hiring of Manager for Debt
By Brian Chappatta and Kathleen Edwards / Bloomberg / February 14, 2012


Commissioners of Jefferson County (3681MF), which began the biggest U.S. municipal-bankruptcy proceeding in November, agreed to hire a manager for its $4.2 billion debt at a meeting in Birmingham, Alabama. ...
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Re: New High of Liquid Fuel Production?

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Wed 15 Feb 2012, 19:38:38

I think this depends a lot on your definition of the wheels coming off the tracks. So far we have pretty much held on to BAU, at least here in the states. I would however agree that we are boiling frogs at this point.
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Re: New High of Liquid Fuel Production?

Unread postby copious.abundance » Wed 15 Feb 2012, 20:42:39

AirlinePilot wrote:Characterizing total liquids production as "Soaring" given recent price trends is an obfuscation and a manipulation of the facts.

The word "soaring," in this context, being a subjective term, cannot thus be a manipulation of the facts, because the term "soaring" is not a factual statement, it is a subjective one. In my book, the following chart shows liquids production the past couple years or so to be rising sufficiently fast to be considered "soaring." If you disagree, that's fine, but don't accuse me of manipulating facts when I stated no facts at all, I just showed a chart which was accompanied by my subjective interpretation of it.

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Re: New High of Liquid Fuel Production?

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Fri 17 Feb 2012, 01:27:58

If that trend in the last two to three years continues into the next few, i'd say you might be justified in using the term "soaring". Right now not so much. The historic chart of oil production is filled with small peaks and valleys. Lets wait and see what happens over the next two years or so.

If you pull out to see the much longer history of production, that "soaring" level doesn't quite look so impressive. I'd say you are intentionally manipulating this by constantly showing only the last 10 years or so of what is a MUCH bigger chart.
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Re: New High of Liquid Fuel Production?

Unread postby AgentR11 » Fri 17 Feb 2012, 02:15:40

Set your y range to start at zero, and pull the starting year back to when we began to really pump oil, and that little bumpy thing at 2004+ will look very, very, flat.
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Re: New High of Liquid Fuel Production?

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 17 Feb 2012, 02:18:54

AirlinePilot wrote:If you pull out to see the much longer history of production, that "soaring" level doesn't quite look so impressive. I'd say you are intentionally manipulating this by constantly showing only the last 10 years or so of what is a MUCH bigger chart.

I used that chart because that's what Stuart Staniford uses on his blog. If you don't like the fact that the chart only goes back 10 years, blame him, not me. His blog happens to be a convenient and regularly-updated source of this information - complete with handy-dandy charts - so that's where I go.
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Re: New High of Liquid Fuel Production?

Unread postby meemoe_uk » Fri 17 Feb 2012, 04:55:22

Well, I'd only describe it as 'soaring' now because I know whats going to happen to it. See that 8Mbpd increase from 2002 to 2005? An increase similar to that is whats going to happen in the next few years. 2010 to 2012 is the foot of the mountain.
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Re: New High of Liquid Fuel Production?

Unread postby meemoe_uk » Mon 27 Feb 2012, 14:35:09

The 2012 February IEA oil market report is published.
http://omrpublic.iea.org/omrarchive/10feb12full.pdf

Can any peaker here guessed what it reported?

Can you?

page 58

January 2012 has just set a new all time monthly record for liquid fuels ( oil ) production, 90.23Mbpd average, which beats the previous all time record set in December 2011 - 90.07Mbpd.

The trend is expected to be about 0.1Mbpd increase per month ( 1.2Mbpd increase per year ) for the next few years, till about 2020.
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Re: New High of Liquid Fuel Production?

Unread postby Serial_Worrier » Mon 27 Feb 2012, 14:39:07

So much for the idea that "peak oil" occurred in 2005. :twisted: :twisted: :twisted:
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Re: New High of Liquid Fuel Production?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 27 Feb 2012, 14:57:25

meemoe_uk wrote:The 2012 February IEA oil market report is published.
http://omrpublic.iea.org/omrarchive/10feb12full.pdf

Can any peaker here guessed what it reported?

Can you?

page 58

January 2012 has just set a new all time monthly record for liquid fuels ( oil ) production, 90.23Mbpd average, which beats the previous all time record set in December 2011 - 90.07Mbpd.

The trend is expected to be about 0.1Mbpd increase per month ( 1.2Mbpd increase per year ) for the next few years, till about 2020.

Why yes you can just go to page 22 and gaze at the charts for Norway's and the Uk's off shore production and see that all is sweetness and light.
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Re: New High of Liquid Fuel Production?

Unread postby AgentR11 » Mon 27 Feb 2012, 17:29:52

Serial_Worrier wrote:So much for the idea that "peak oil" occurred in 2005.


I think the point is that the peak in easy-peazy brown goo occurred a while back; its undeniably true that if one were willing to pay the price as a society, you could use natural gas and coal/corn/random cellulose; to simply overwhelm the loss of easy oil. The price though, is pretty harsh; in dollars, damage, and loss of available energy through economically acceptable negative EROEI processes that take non-liquid energy and make liquid energy. Right now, we're burning energy to get oil out of shale and "tar sands", at a huge cost; still modestly positive on energy return, and cost is below its market value, so its all good.

What happens when that's not enough?

coal to liquids? Bet that's cheap! lol.

more corn+NG -> biofuel? will we weep for any children who are priced out of the ability to eat?

The real hitch is at at what point does economic activity collapse, briefly crashing the price of oil, and leaving all these very costly operations exposed to severe financial loss?
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Re: New High of Liquid Fuel Production?

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Tue 28 Feb 2012, 01:24:59

Once again we learn who cannot seem to fathom the difference between that which is Oil and that which is Not Oil. Confusing Total liquids with Oil production is a complete obfuscation of the reality.

It is quite an important point to grasp. The Not Oil stuff probably wont be able to ward off the decline in the Oil stuff for very long.

Why is this so hard to understand? It begs the question Why the agencies moved to reporting "Total liquids" rather than just plain old Crude?
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Re: New High of Liquid Fuel Production?

Unread postby meemoe_uk » Tue 28 Feb 2012, 05:18:57

Once again we see the POisNow religion grasping at absurd excuses, like

a)
trying to dismiss IEA figures as irrelevant because they include bio and NGLs.
If this distinction was going to save the POisNow position, wouldn't you expect peakers to be falling over themselves to subtract NGLs and bio from the IEA figures to give an adjusted oil output?
They don't. They won't.
Why not? What are they afraid of?

b)
trying to dismiss oil because you didn't dig it up right. yep. That's sums up the desperation of the POisNow religion. Unless you dig it up like they did 40 years ago with technology from 40 years ago, peakers allude that it doesn't count.

c) They ignore that most of the new flood of oil is conventional crude coming from the 2001 middle east oil bonanza.

>Why is this so hard to understand? It begs the question Why the agencies moved to reporting "Total liquids" rather than just plain old Crude?
Because in its most important respect, its oil. Extracting combustibles from tar and bitumen is OK, but extracting them from any other medium magically invalidates them? Who decided that? God?
It's an absurdity that peakers utterly depend on.
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Re: New High of Liquid Fuel Production?

Unread postby Kristen » Tue 28 Feb 2012, 05:50:50

I remember when I joined this forum in inn 2005 and people were predicting electricity outages by now, which have yet to occur. The truth is no one has a crystal ball on these sorts of conundrums. Is the price of oil so high because it is priced in dollars and the fed has to print trillions of dollars to support CDC's and CDO's causing inflation? Hell if i know, but as a society America has certainly peaked in standard of living. 2/3's are living paycheck to paycheck and we have stubborn unemployment and a disturbing jobs field. The underlying point on this forum has been carrying capacity. Even if we reach 200 mbd the result will still be the same; more and more misery. How can one be happy when a new "need" is always being created via manipulation (and behavioral psychology)? Corporations are people and SOPA is being implemented. Poverty is a crime and if you're homeless you have no rights to be anywhere.

What I'm saying is I understand those who want Peak Oil only insofar that it gives all this suffering a retribution of sorts. If not then let the evilness continue under the virtue of a benign God,
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Re: New High of Liquid Fuel Production?

Unread postby AgentR11 » Tue 28 Feb 2012, 11:49:23

Kristen wrote:I remember when I joined this forum in inn 2005 and people were predicting electricity outages by now, which have yet to occur.


Unless something REALLY REALLY exceptional happens, Texas will have rolling outages this summer. You can argue alot about the cause and good/bad thing part; but the prediction is true in its unvarnished sense. I kinda think its a good thing, as the cause is retirement of ancient coal plants, and with the economy at a lower activity point, this is as good a time as any to absorb the disruption; and maybe if the permit deities can get together we can build a bunch of clean(er) NG generation plants, thus spurring economic activity.

That said, I've never been one to much associate Peak Oil with electrical outages myself; there will be enough oily liquids around for a long, long time to provide the grid services that rely on it.

If not then let the evilness continue under the virtue of a benign God,


God is benign because he gave us the power to choose to make Earth into heaven or hell as we saw fit. That we chose poorly is unfortunate.
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Re: New High of Liquid Fuel Production?

Unread postby ralfy » Wed 29 Feb 2012, 02:27:06

http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2012/02/j ... upply.html

Looks like a dramatic increase when one looks at the second chart, but in the fourth chart, we see an increase from 70 to 85 mb/d from 1995 to a bit after 2005, but from 2005 to the end of 2012 an increase from 85 to a max. of 87 mb/d. If we were to follow the previous increase, then we should see 100 mb/d by 2015. For this to happen, we need to add at almost 5 mb/d each year, or at a rate two or three times better than what we used to do in the past.
http://sites.google.com/site/peakoilreports/
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Re: New High of Liquid Fuel Production?

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 25 May 2012, 20:50:18

I guess meemoe_uk forgot about this thread.

Anyway here's the chart, courtesty of Stuart Staniford.

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Re: New High of Liquid Fuel Production?

Unread postby AgentR11 » Fri 25 May 2012, 21:20:36

Hmmm, maybe the oily stuff will last until we don't need it.
I'm cool with that.
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Re: New High of Liquid Fuel Production?

Unread postby meemoe_uk » Sat 26 May 2012, 16:04:17

Oh yeah. Perhaps the mods could merge these 2 threads.
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Re: New High of Liquid Fuel Production?

Unread postby Leutnant » Fri 08 Jun 2012, 18:07:16

Looking at Oilfinder's chart, isn't it reasonable to suspect that this new high and the growth in production the last two years is mainly the result of restarting of projects that were put on hold after the crisis in 2008?

If so then the production-growth since the summer of 2010 is only a temporary anomaly.
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