Here Comes The Double Dip Pt. 2

[Plantagenet]

Whatever happened to DP? How can he let OF2 get away with several pages of growth news?

The US is definitely showing some signs of growth, while China slows and the EU goes into a double dip recession. Lets all hope the good news from the US continues a while longer.



I'd be as optimistic as OF2 if US gas prices weren't edging up again towards record levels this year. A spike in gas prices caused by Obama's little war in Libya helped kill the economic "green shoots" that caused so much hope last year, and we seem to be heading for much higher gas prices this year. Some economists are predicting $5 gallon US gas by the year end----high gas prices are already helping to cause the slowdown in the EU, and IMHO $5/gallon gas in the US will kill this fledging recovery here is the US as well.

[ralfy]

Obviously, when you have more money pumped into the system, then you will always have "growth". But with a production ceiling for resources, it won't matter.

[Repent]

BBC 'Poor America' documentary.

People living under bridges, eating rats for meals:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=suJCvkaz ... r_embedded

Can't say this isn't bad for some people.

[Lore]

Obviously, when you have more money pumped into the system, then you will always have "growth". But with a production ceiling for resources, it won't matter.

It's called stoking the fire. You can always get it to blaze a little higher by adding more fuel to it. Except, you better check how much wood you have left before you do.

[Mesuge]

BBC 'Poor America' documentary.

Quite surprised BBC even ran this story.

In any case one of take home leassons from the docu is that it seems confirmed the "collapse/history" literature timeline:

crises->*newly impoverished and poor circle the megapolis->revolt->
->system crash->leaving burned cities for country side

*people are not (and won't be) leaving for country side massively yet, to the contrary they concentrate around the civilization hub, looking for scraps, charities etc. Moving back to land is beyond their budget (can't afford even a bus/rail ticket), but moreover such trajectory change is against THE PROJECTED IMAGE of themselves and their future prospects (former "middle class" suburbanites), that's also why they are still not revolting much (yet) as they largely internalize this as their own personal failure, at certain point they will start blame the system ..and that's game over..
I guess this "delay" is the most important and overlooked phase of the whole reverse Olduvai process

PS Newt's idea of returning to child labor for american poor (colored) was a classic. I'm wondering when this idea starts taking ground in the EU too? Next year, lolz?

[SeaGypsy]

Countries which have no socio-economic safety net have 'allowances' for underprivileged, squatters areas/ freemarket zones/ micro business blind-eye policies; there is no other realistic option. But can anyone name a municipality in the USA with such allowances? Freelance capitalism has been proven to work better than government assisted return to work programs, without taking overall efficiency into account.

[Quinny]

Please watch the vidoe posted by repent above (re post here). The cornies are living in cloud cuckoo land.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pl ... zrTc&gl=GB

[OilFinder2]

Yeah, the existence of poor people invalidates the Cornucopian viewpoint. Sure, right. Like, there weren't poor people 40 years ago when the price of oil was $10/barrel.

Let's play battle-of-the-videos. View it and weep, doomers:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WnwZrKljDIs
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp ... 9#45101989

[Outcast_Searcher]

Yeah, the existence of poor people invalidates the Cornucopian viewpoint. Sure, right. Like, there weren't poor people 40 years ago when the price of oil was $10/barrel.

Let's play battle-of-the-videos. View it and weep, doomers:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WnwZrKljDIs
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp ... 9#45101989

No, but whining about poor people and acting like they NEVER have ANYTHING to do with their own condition (like lack of savings, thrift, choosing food over cigarettes and booze and drugs, feeds the fantasies of the left and the cries for ALWAYS MORE government to "fix everything" (despite their hideous track record). This is why I favor FREE education as long as you get good grades (and as a taxpayer am very willing to help fund it). You get a better educated, more productive, more tax-paying workforce -- AND -- except for the sick or retarded, you remove all the EXCUSES for the poor and their plight (i.e. it's all evil GOP and rich white men's fault).

Of course, this will never happen in our short-sighted system, so it's sadly, a moot point...

[OilFinder2]

Manufacturing jobs find way back to U.S.

In a small industrial building near the Crossings shopping center in Carlsbad, a hundred factory workers at Outsource Manufacturing Inc. are producing and assembling medical devices, consumer gadgets and parts and supplies for other manufacturers.

Over the past couple of decades, much of this type of work has been shipped out of the country, to factories in places like Mexico, China, Vietnam or Thailand. But recently, manufacturers have been bringing some work back to America. They call it “insourcing,” rather than outsourcing to foreign lands. Or “reshoring,” rather than offshoring.

“Reshoring is happening,” said Ted Fogliani, who heads the firm. “When you look at the full cost of doing business abroad, U.S. factories can compete on price, delivery and quality. People would be surprised to learn how many things we still manufacture in the U.S.”

[...]

Many companies have already brought production lines back from foreign lands, breathing new life into long-ailing U.S. factories.

Coleman Co., for instance, has shifted its production of plastic coolers from China to Kansas because of rising labor costs. Outdoor GreatRoom brought its production of fire pits and pergolas back to Minnesota because of the lag time in getting shipments from China. Peerless Industries is moving its audio-visual mounting systems from China back to Illinois, so it can have more control over the manufacturing.

A study by the Boston Consulting Group last summer projected that the trend will increase over the next several years, eventually generating between 2 million and 3 million jobs nationwide, including service jobs that support the factories.

The upper end of that estimate represents about half the factory jobs that have been lost since manufacturing peaked in 1999. Chula Vista electronics manufacturer and business advocate Michele Nash-Hoff, who has written extensively on manufacturing policy, said she thinks factories could regain 25 percent to 30 percent of the jobs that they lost nationwide and maybe 10 percent to 15 percent in San Diego County, amounting to roughly 3,000 to 4,500 workers.

[...]

[OilFinder2]

Manufacturers providing outsize boost to economy

(AP) — American factories are humming — and driving the economy forward.

Manufacturers have been hiring more consistently than other employers, for jobs with better-than-average pay. They just had their best month of growth in five years. And more factory output has raised demand in some other industries, such as shipping, leading to further hiring.

"The manufacturing sector is on a tear," said Paul Ashworth, an economist at Capital Economics.

It's an optimistic theme that serves President Barack Obama's political needs. On Wednesday, Obama traveled to Milwaukee to salute a company that brought jobs back to the United States. The president has promoted the nation's manufacturing base as an engine of growth and as evidence of a recovering economy.

No one thinks manufacturing will return to its 1950s peak. After all, the factory sector now makes up barely one-tenth of the economy.

But since the recession ended more than 2½ years ago, factories have been contributing disproportionately to the recovery in hiring and the overall economy.

[...]

[rangerone314]

Yeah, the existence of poor people invalidates the Cornucopian viewpoint. Sure, right. Like, there weren't poor people 40 years ago when the price of oil was $10/barrel.

Let's play battle-of-the-videos. View it and weep, doomers:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WnwZrKljDIs
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp ... 9#45101989

No, but whining about poor people and acting like they NEVER have ANYTHING to do with their own condition (like lack of savings, thrift, choosing food over cigarettes and booze and drugs, feeds the fantasies of the left and the cries for ALWAYS MORE government to "fix everything" (despite their hideous track record). This is why I favor FREE education as long as you get good grades (and as a taxpayer am very willing to help fund it). You get a better educated, more productive, more tax-paying workforce -- AND -- except for the sick or retarded, you remove all the EXCUSES for the poor and their plight (i.e. it's all evil GOP and rich white men's fault).

Of course, this will never happen in our short-sighted system, so it's sadly, a moot point...

Our education system which is mostly funded by local property taxes is flawed in that it perpetuates inequality in funding, since people trying to get into a well-funded school district drives up the house prices and the school funding, while the poorer school districts falter and can't meet standards or attract enough decent teachers.

[OilFinder2]

Another print in the 350K range. Still waiting for that double-dip!

Jobless Claims Hold Steady at Lowest Level Since 2008

New U.S. claims for unemployment benefits were unchanged last week, holding at the lowest level since the early days of the 2007-2009 recession and giving a fresh sign the battered labor market is healing.

Workers filed 351,000 initial claims for state unemployment benefits, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The prior week's figure was revised up to 351,000 from the previously reported 348,000.

The last two weekly readings have been the lowest since March 2008. The four-week moving average for new claims, a measure of labor market trends, fell 7,000 to 359,000 —also the lowest since March 2008.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast initial claims rising to 354,000.

With weekly claims approaching levels last seen before the recession that began in December 2007, economists say employers might be close to ending a long cycle of heavy layoffs, laying the ground for more hiring.

Already, the jobless rate has fallen sharply, dropping to 8.3 percent in January from 9.1 percent in August. Job gains have exceeded 200,000 for two straight months.

[...]

[dsula]

where is DP?

[OilFinder2]

^
Don't know. Maybe he decided to take his toys and play somewhere else.

I just checked Zerohedge and Karl Denninger, and neither of them mentioned that the unadjusted claims number is LOWER than the adjusted claims number, in spite of both of them making big stinks early in January about the unadjusted numbers being so much higher than the adjusted ones.

Typical hypocricy from both of them.

[TheAntiDoomer]

[bratticus]

America’s ‘Food Stamp Nation’ continues to grow
Bill Schiller / Toronto Star / February 11, 2012

In 2006, there were 26.7 million people on food stamps in America. By September 2011, that number had grown to a record 46.3 million, bigger by far than Canada’s population of 33 million, and equal to that of Spain.

In fact, if the Americans using food stamps constituted a country, they would be the 27th largest nation in the world.

... Any talk about cutting the federal program troubles [Syracuse Mayor Stephanie] Miner.

“You worry about people being hungry and what people will do if they’re hungry,” she says.

I'd love to hear the corny explanation for that.

[OilFinder2]

Kansas City Fed Has Good News

Kansas City Federal Reserve posts good news on manufacturing activity in the nation’s heartland.

The Tenth District of the Federal Reserve reported that manufacturing activity increased in February and expectations climbed while exports dropped and optimism surrounding future output and hiring climbed.

From the report:

“Tenth District manufacturing activity increased further in February, and expectations also climbed higher. Price indexes generally moderated from the previous month, although slightly more firms indicated plans to increase prices in the future.

The month-over-month composite index was 13 in February, up from 7 in January and -2 in December, and the highest since last June…The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Manufacturing activity increased in both durable and nondurable goods-producing plants, with notable strength in machinery, fabricated metals, and aircraft production. Other month-over-month indexes were mixed in February but remained solid. The production and order backlog indexes moved higher, and the employment index edged up from 9 to 11. In contrast, the shipments and new order indexes fell slightly, and the new orders for exports index dropped from 10 to -7.”

[...]

[Daniel_Plainview]

Crude oil price hits record highs in euros and sterling
The price of crude oil surged to record highs in euros and sterling on Thursday, piling fresh pressure on the eurozone’s troubled economy.

Traders buying in euros saw the price of Brent rise to €93.60 a barrel, cruising past the previous peak of €93.46 in July 2008. It also broke new ground in sterling, topping £79 a barrel. ... They come at a perilous moment for Europe, which only this week agreed a bailout package for Greece and is still in a fragile state. The European Commission said on Tuesday that the EU would fail to grow this year and the eurozone is expected to experience a mild recession. Last year, falling oil prices helped convince central banks that growth was on the cards in 2012. A rise in the cost of oil is likely to deliver a further blow to consumer confidence. In the US, the price of Brent crude rose two cents to $122.92, briefly topping $124 a barrel. It has risen more than 10pc this month but is still a long way shy of the $147 a barrel record set in mid-2008.

Here we go!

[dolanbaker]

Fortunately (in a way) because of the high level of fuel taxation here, the jump in price is less noticeable than it would be if it was untaxed.

It's a sharp decline in the value of the Euro that will do the most damage!