THE Crude Oil Price Watch Thread

[bratticus]

But what's weirder still is the other extreme.

Prepare to pay $5 per gallon for gas
Kyndel Lee-Bates / Barrington Broadcasting Group, LLC / February 19, 2012

video

AMARILLO, TEXAS -- With all the uncertainty about the events in Iran, many Americans are preparing to pay more at the pump.

U.S. crude oil is now $140 per barrel, and that could increase national gas prices by 20 cents. ...

The signal-to-noise ratio has just gone bonkers.

[M_B_S]

And the winner is nuclear power India!

http://www.irna.ir/News/Politic/India_s ... s/30827469

India's decision to import Iran oil a slap on US face: Nicholas Burns
*********************

India steps in and buys the "free" oil from Iran

Now Europe goverments face fuel riots over record high gasoline prices.
There are idiots making politics here in Europe and in the US
M_B_S

[radon]

And the winner is nuclear power India!

http://www.irna.ir/News/Politic/India_s ... s/30827469

Nice citation from the article:

'India's decision to walk out of step with the international community on Iran isn't just a slap in the face for the US – it raises questions about its ability to lead,' said Burns.

India is "out of step with the international community". China and Russia are "in isolation". What a name list. Half of the world's population. If you build a fence around yourself then the entire outside world will find themselves in isolation. For example, the world is out out of step with and in isolation from North Korea. Shouldn't the world be concerned.

[Mesuge]

M_B_S> there are no immediate future threats of gasoline price spike induced riots in western Europe. The simple reason being people over there are just still too filthy rich and driving less distance in higher mpg cars.. And the minorities are predominantely city based using public transport and scooters.

However, what you can see quite soon though is petrol installation (rafinery) blocades as very usefull tool in workers/unions general strike action against deployment of austerity policies by the banksters.

[eXpat]

Iran threatens to cut oil flow to other EU states

After halting oil flow to Britain and France, Iran threatens to stop oil sales to other European Union member states if the EU continues its hostile policies.

Iran’s Deputy Oil Minister Ahmad Qalebani on Monday hinted at the possibility of a halt in oil exports to Spain, the Netherlands, Greece, Germany, Italy and Portugal.

“Undoubtedly if the hostile actions of certain European countries continue, oil exports to these countries will be stopped," said Qalebani, who is also the managing director of the National Iranian Oil Company.

On Sunday, Iran’s Oil Ministry announced that it has cut oil exports to British and French firms.

The move came in retaliation for a decision by the European Union to stop oil imports from Iran as of July 2012 in line with sanctions imposed against the country's oil industry.

On Monday, oil prices hit a nine-month high in Asian trade following Iran’s oil cut announcement, the highest levels since May 5, 2011.

Crude for March delivery is up about two dollars to more than 105 dollars a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude has gained about the same amount going above 121 dollars a barrel

http://proxygate.pl/index.php?q=aHR0cDovL3d3dy5wcmVzc3R2LmNvbS9kZXRhaWwvMjI3NjU3Lmh0bWw%3D

[bratticus]

EU Says It Can Do Without Iranian Crude Oil Supplies
RTTNews / February 20, 2012

European Commission spokesperson on energy Marlene Holzner said on Monday that if there were no other importers to replace Iran, EU oil stocks would suffice for a long period of time because Iranian supplies accounted for only 5.8 percent of Europe's total crude imports.

HAHAHA! "only" 5.8%!!!

"Merely a flesh wound" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKhEw7nD9C4

[Outcast_Searcher]

My take on this is that oil is a pretty fungible asset. As long as the total production remains the same the price will be 'relatively' unaffected.

If Iran does not sell to to Britain and/or France then they must sell somewhere else displacing someone, who WILL sell to Britain and/or France.

The psychological impact may be far greater. But I kinda doubt it will be huge. I think the markets have this eventuality 'priced in.'

+1

I suspect the average increase in oil prices (WTI and Brent) today of about a buck (last time I looked) is a reasonable market response. This is more about politics/bargaining leverage than anything. If Iran stopped ALL shipments of oil, they would be defunding their breakneck run for the bomb...

OTOH, THAT (which would meaningfully raise prices, IMO) might do more economic damage to "The Great Satan" than all the scurrying about worrying about them getting nukes.

[eXpat]

IEA says EU could live with abrupt Iran oil halt

(Reuters) - The European Union could cope with an abrupt halt by Iran of its oil exports to the region as buyers of Iranian oil are already adjusting to the EU's forthcoming ban on Iranian shipments, an International Energy Agency official said on Monday.

Oil prices rose on Monday to an eight-month high above $121 a barrel as Iran said it halted exports to British and French companies ahead of a European Union embargo starting on July 1.
We don't think this announcement will have a real impact on the market because France and the UK have already stopped buying crude from Iran," said Didier Houssin, director of energy markets and security of the International Energy Agency.

Iran's announcement came as European oil buyers have already cut purchases from Iran ahead of the sanctions, reducing flows to the continent in March by more than a third - or over 300,000 barrels per day, according to industry sources.

Given that customers are readying themselves for the embargo on Iranian oil and because crude demand typically falls at the end of the northern hemisphere winter, the EU could also cope with a wider stoppage by Iran of its oil sales.

"If such a move were taken by Iran to immediately stop exports, we don't think it would have a very significant impact on the market," Houssin said.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/02/20/uk-iea-iran-idUKTRE81J0UH20120220
I don´t think so, but time will tell, and maybe soon...

[sjn]

The fungibility of oil in the short term is overestimated, different refineries are highly optimized for various grades and there's a shortage of the relatively lighter-sweeter varieties. In addition, China isn't likely to reduce its take from other suppliers whilst it has an SPR to fill.

[Mesuge]

outcast> In my view that's not the correct lens how to observe the situation. Iran knows pretty well the most powerfull tool in this particular export embargo is to shut it down precisely towards Greece and Italy. For some reason they not approved/delayed such particular action and with each passing day it will matter less and less. That can be related either to weakness of judgment or level of prepardness on the Iranian side.

Or they count on some multiplification effect to launch it timely at desired event, what could that be? Greece triggering CDS before summer (not very likely)?

[bratticus]

Obviously you just need to read more BS from the WSJ, we are fine $121/barrel is a perfectly normal and acceptable price for Brent crude and nothing is wrong or unusual and all the peak oil stuff is just baloney you should not listen to or believe. We are in control of the situation and everything is A-OK now.

IEA: Oil Market Ready For Iran Loss
Alessandro Torello in Brussels and Sarah Kent in London / WSJ / February 20, 2012

Large producers including Saudi Arabia, have already started to fill the gap, Mr. Houssin said. Current spare capacity available in OPEC, most of it in the Gulf, stands at 2.82 million barrels a day, according to the IEA, making it easy to replace the 2.2 million barrels a day of crude Iran normally exports.

HAHAHA! That shriveled up old worn-out Saudi Arabia is supposed to come to the rescue? Listen up Alessie and Sarah, Saudi Arabia is busy using up the oil that it produces in an effort to keep from going Arab Spring and doesn't have anything to export that it's not already. Not unless they start drilling under the floorboards of the Gulf Palace for some Arab Heavy.

[Anvil]

Maybe people should start thinking about harnessing the hot air from MSM to power turbines.

[jbrovont]

Indeed. However they seem mostly mute on the announcement by Iraq that the new regime "prefers to develop Asian markets" for all that restored capacity they're planning to bring online.

Maybe people should start thinking about harnessing the hot air from MSM to power turbines.

Even NPR had a news bit today that quoted WTI, omitted Brent, and then went on to say that European prices were a product of the cold snap and "other market forces" more than the looming conflict and trade embargos.

The more I mull over who benefits from another cold/hot war in the middle east, you know who isn't on that list? Me.

[bratticus]

Iran's bid for new crude buyers falls short in SE Asia
Francis Kan and Florence Tan / Reuters / February 21, 2012

But Southeast Asian refiners are unwilling or unable to take in Iranian crude, either due to issues related to the sanctions or their plants' inability to process the crude, which has a higher sulphur content.

China's Jan crude oil imports from Iran down 14 pct m/m [month-over-month]
Judy Hua and Chen Aizhu / Reuters / February 21, 2012

China's January crude oil imports from Iran fell 14 percent from December on a daily basis, customs data showed on Tuesday, as top refiner Sinopec Corp slashed imports from Iran in a dispute over payments and prices.

Sinopec is Iran's biggest oil buyer and imports nearly all the crude that the Islamic Republic ships to China.

The state-run refiner cut Iranian oil imports by around 285,000 barrels per day (bpd), just over half its average daily purchases, industry sources told Reuters, as the two haggled over terms against a backdrop of rising international pressure on Tehran.

China imported 490,727 barrels of Iranian crude per day in January, down 82,000 bpd from the 572,761 bpd in December, the customs data showed. Imports fell 5 percent on the year. ...

Tomorrow, Wednesday February 22, 2012 we will be able to read the HSBC China manufacturing flash purchasing managers index (PMI) for this month. So far that indicator has shown non-stop contraction during November, December and January.

OPEC ORB price reading for last Friday February 19, 2012 was $119 up from $110 on February 1, 2012.

[eXpat]

Iran sets conditions for oil to European nations

Mehmanparast told reporters Tuesday that Tehran seeks guarantees of payments, long term contracts and a ban on unilateral cancellation of contracts by buyers. He said all these should be considered if Europe wants continued trade and oil relations.

The terms were conveyed in a meeting with ambassadors of six European countries in Tehran, Mehmanparast said. He did not say when the meting took place.

"Iran's conditions include guarantee of payment of the price on our oil, relatively long-term and midterm contracts from three to five years," he said, adding also that there could be no "unilateral cancellation of the contracts by oil buyers."

He claimed these conditions would facilitate cooperation and would be fair to both Iran and the Europeans.

Iran's Oil Minister Rostam Qassemi took a similar stance, telling the official IRNA news agency Tuesday that "other European countries should decide as soon as possible about long term contracts for buying oil from Iran."

The 27-nation EU accounts for about 18 percent of Iran's oil exports. With a daily production of nearly four million barrels of oil, Iran earns up to 80 percent of its foreign revenue from crude export.

Mehmanparast said the cutoffs to Britain and France were due to the "hostile attitude" toward Iran.

"As we consider ourselves committed to provide Europe with energy, they have to consider themselves committed to paying the price and fulfilling the contracts," said Mehmanparast. "We support a continuation of relations with European countries."

On Tuesday, oil prices remained above $104 but retreated from recent highs after European leaders agreed to lend Greece euro130 billion ($172 billion) to avoid a debt default.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2017557923_apmliranoil.html

[bratticus]

Iran offers extra oil, India not keen
Nidhi Verma / Reuters / February 21, 2012

In 2011/12, crude imports will be lower than the previous fiscal year's 370,000 bpd due to payment problems triggered when India's central bank scrapped a long-standing clearing house mechanism in December 2010 under U.S. pressure.

[Serial_Worrier]

Time to start NATO bombing campaign? BLOOD FOR OIl!!!!

[bratticus]

French petrol prices rise to new record level
RFI / February 21, 2012

On Sunday, Tehran announced [it] was stopping oil sales to France and Britain seen as the countries most strongly behind European sanctions against Iran. The move was largely symbolic as ... Petrol prices in France have risen ... to reach new record levels according to official figures.

(some editing by me)

In a nutshell: WE REPEAT! THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE THAT RECORD PRICES FOR PETROL HAVE ANYTHING TO DO WITH IRAN CUTTING US OFF!!! It is just a BIG COINCIDENCE and you are safe and we are in control.

[bratticus]

Massive protest march to cut pump duty
KEVIN SCHOFIELD / The Sun / February 22, 2012

A HUGE march will descend on Parliament ahead of next month's Budget — to demand a cut in petrol prices.

The backlash — as diesel hits a record 143.05p a litre — emerged as oil prices soared yet again yesterday.

Peter Carroll, of campaign group Fair Fuel UK, stormed last night: "Petrol and diesel is now so expensive it is stopping people driving, hurting businesses and killing the economy. It's time for a major rethink." ...

[Tuike]

There was in today's tv news that oil is now more expensive than in 2008 when paid in euros. Diesel price made a new record. Transport business is suffering.