THE Crude Oil Price Watch Thread

[Cid_Yama]

Iran Cuts Oil Exports to Europe; Begins Using Its Own Nuclear Fuel

Iran's announcement, delivered via state TV, did not name the six countries, but there are reports that the ambassadors of the Netherlands, France, Spain, Italy, Greece and Portugal were summoned this morning to be informed of the decision. Some of those envoys may have already been called home. While not as drastic a move as their threatened closing of the Strait of Hormuz, the implication from the Iranians is that Europe needs their oil more than Iran needs Europe's money.

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The state TV of Iran is totally controlled by the government. It is more likely the oil ministry got left out of the loop.

There were already stories from January that these nations were searching for other sources of oil supposedly to give them the ability to boycott Iran, but more likely in anticipation of a war that would interrupt supplies.

There was a red flag warning in December, and the US chaiman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff went to Israel, to get them to hold off on attacking until these countries could find other sources of oil.

Israeli leaders held talks with the top U.S. military commander, General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, following the postponement of a joint exercise that was to be the biggest ever for the two allies.

The joint military exercise was moved to the second half of 2012 for “a variety of factors” to promote “optimum participation by all units,” Captain John Kirby, a Pentagon spokesman, said last week in an e-mail. “We remain dedicated to this exercise and naturally want it to be as robust and as productive as it can be.”

European Union officials meet Jan. 23 to discuss an oil embargo that may be delayed by six months to give some members time to find alternate supplies, two EU officials said.

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If the delay was to give these nations time to find other sources, Israel may take this as meaning there is no longer any reason to wait.

A U.S. aircraft carrier strike group sailed through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday shadowed by Iranian patrol boats and aircraft.

The maneuvers come more than a month after Iran warned a different carrier - USS John C. Stennis - not to return to the Gulf.

Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, a major oil shipping lane, amid rising tensions with the West over Tehran's nuclear program.

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Serious sabre-rattling.

[vision-master]

Your last 26 days of life...
On March 2, 2012, the zionists (isreali mossad and cia agents) who are the stooges of the central banksters, will attack an American naval ship (as they did with the USS Liberty).

They will try to sink this ship with a huge loss of life of American sailors.

They will pretend to be Iranians to make you mad at Iran.

They intend to provoke officialdom in the US and Russia and China into killing us all.

[Cid_Yama]

Iran's foreign ministry said on Wednesday Tehran will not cut oil exports to six EU countries "at the moment" after state media reported it was looking at doing so, the Arabic broadcaster Al-Alam said.

"Due to humanitarian reasons and the cold weather in the continent, it will not do so at the moment," Al-Alam reported.

It said that a foreign ministry official, Hassan Tajik, had "warned the EU ambassadors that Iran can opt to cut its oil exports to their countries because "has other customers for it's oil" but that such a move was not yet announced.

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Russia and China are currently both trading with Iran in their own currencies.

Iran just said to the EU, "You think the ball is in your court, it is not, it is in ours."

Iran was sending a clear message that they do not have to wait until the West is prepared to attack them, that they can pull the trigger first by crashing Europe's economy.

[Cid_Yama]

American attempts to get major Asian importers of Iranian oil to rein in their purchases are faltering as allies South Korea and Japan give U.S. officials a polite brushoff. Emerging giants India and China may even increase their purchases, further complicating Washington's efforts to force Iran to curtail its nuclear program.

China is a massive purchaser of Iranian oil, averaging about 550,000 barrels per day in 2011, about 10 percent of its total imports. "China wants to build its strategic reserve of crude and the Chinese are now in a good negotiating position as far as securing supplies," he said.

The reserve, which presently stands at 102 million barrels — 21 days of imports — is scheduled to add another 168 million barrels of storage facilities by early 2013. In a report earlier this month, the Paris-based International Energy Agency said that new Chinese storage centers "could materially affect Chinese crude oil demand in 2012," suggesting that if they were filled at a steady pace China would need to secure an additional 220,000 barrels per day.

Complicating matters are persistent Israeli threats to attack Iranian nuclear installations if sanctions efforts fail. While sympathizing with Israeli concerns over the specter of a nuclear-armed enemy, many western leaders fear an Israeli attack would wreak havoc throughout the Middle East and jeopardize the still fragile international economic recovery, as oil prices spike.

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China might have something to say about Western plans for Iran. We could find ourselves pitted against the Chinese in any actions against Iran, turning this into a World War.

[Cog]

Lets look at the positive here. We have been preaching power-down on this board for years. If we piss off enough oil-exporting countries, we will get exactly that.

I may have to rethink my stance on not interfering with Iran.

[Cid_Yama]

China's Vice President Xi Jinping is currently in the US. I would guess he is telling the US exactly how it is with China and Iran.

The visit with the President yesterday was reported to be less than cordial.

China's Hu urges navy to prepare for combat

Chinese President Hu Jintao on Tuesday urged the navy to prepare for military combat, amid growing regional tensions over maritime disputes and a US campaign to assert itself as a Pacific power.

The navy should "accelerate its transformation and modernisation in a sturdy way, and make extended preparations for military combat in order to make greater contributions to safeguard national security," he said.

Addressing the powerful Central Military Commission, Hu said: "Our work must closely encircle the main theme of national defence and military building."

His comments, which were posted in a statement on a government website, come as the United States and Beijing's neighbours have expressed concerns over its naval ambitions, particularly in the South China Sea.

Several Asian nations have competing claims over parts of the South China Sea, believed to encompass huge oil and gas reserves, while China claims it all. One-third of global seaborne trade passes through the region.

Vietnam and the Philippines have accused Chinese forces of increasing aggression there.

In a translation of Hu's comments, the official Xinhua news agency quoted the president as saying China's navy should "make extended preparations for warfare."

http://news.yahoo.com/chinas-hu-urges-navy-prepare-combat-160509787.html

[Mesuge]

"Due to humanitarian reasons and the cold weather in the continent, it will not do so at the moment," Al-Alam reported.

What a mega-baloooney, Mr. Persian .gov
The arctic-cold snap over Europe ended yesterday or even earlier, it's above zero from now on, snow melting, rivers flowing again.. Seems more like desperate covering of their collective ... It could have been caused by numerous things from simple stupid administrative screwup among departments/TV, to internal faction/divisions in leadership, foreign induced false flag/sabotage etc.

[eXpat]

Something is going on
Dutch, other EU ambassadors called to explain Iran sanctions

The Dutch ambassador in Teheran is one of six European diplomats summoned to the Iranian foreign ministry on Wednesday to explain their government’s actions in connection with the EU’s planned sanctions against Iran.

The ambassadors of Italy, Spain, France, Greece and Portugal were also called to explain the sanctions, which are in protest at Iran’s nuclear programme.

The EU agreed last month to sanction oil imports from Iran and freeze the assets of Iran's central bank.

Also on Wednesday, Iran's oil ministry denied earlier reports from state media that oil exports to the six countries were being halted.

http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2012/02/dutch_other_eu_ambassadors_cal.php
Why would them be in talks to the ambassador of the countries that it was announced earlier on sanctions?

[Mesuge]

Yep, this whole affair stinks like the mother of all fish.
Something is brewing behind the curtains, and the Iranians are playing it very softly to our liking, well perhaps it's no fun indeed to start the very last world war.

[Cog]

"Due to humanitarian reasons and the cold weather in the continent, it will not do so at the moment," Al-Alam reported.

What a mega-baloooney, Mr. Persian .gov
The arctic-cold snap over Europe ended yesterday or even earlier, it's above zero from now on, snow melting, rivers flowing again.. Seems more like desperate covering of their collective ... It could have been caused by numerous things from simple stupid administrative screwup among departments/TV, to internal faction/divisions in leadership, foreign induced false flag/sabotage etc.

I agree. The Persians are showing that the sanctions are hurting.

[Fishman]

Sure smells like war to me. I knew there would be a false flag comment here, so the recent Iranian blowing his own legs off should have halted the Israeli conspiracy idea, but no, SeaGyp, wouldn't want reality to cloud your thought processes.
Wow, Cid, Cog, and myself all agreeing on a point, sure sign of the apocalypse.

[Roryrules]

China might have something to say about Western plans for Iran. We could find ourselves pitted against the Chinese in any actions against Iran, turning this into a World War.

Not going to happen. The Chinese don't care enough about Iran to go to war with America and in any case, they don't have the capability to do so either.

Anyway, it now seems that this announcement was complete bollocks, the Iranian Oil Ministry has since issued a denial.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-17042855

[Pops]

And here

Iran's state TV has quoted a Foreign Ministry spokesman as saying crude oil exports to Europe have not yet been cut, reversing earlier reports that Tehran was halting sales to six countries.

So is this like the Egyptian official swearing they aren't bombing Homs?

[eXpat]

OK, this seems to be the situation:
Iran Foreign Ministry says oil not cut to Europe

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Iran's state TV has quoted a Foreign Ministry spokesman as saying crude oil exports to Europe have not yet been cut, reversing earlier reports that Tehran was halting sales to six countries.

Hasan Tajik said six European diplomats were summoned Wednesday and told that Iran has no problem replacing customers — an implied threat that Tehran would carry out plans to cut European Union countries off immediately to preempt sanctions set to go into effect in July.

Iranian TV reported the cut earlier in the day, then a news agency said that exports were cut to France and Netherlands with four other European countries receiving an ultimatum.

The conflicting reports come as Iran announced advances in its controversial nuclear program.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP's earlier story is below.
...

In a further show of resistance to international pressure, state media reported Iran was taking steps to cut oil exports to six European countries in retaliation for new European Union sanctions, including a ban on Iranian oil.

The semiofficial Mehr agency said that Iran has halted exports to France and the Netherlands, and has given an ultimatum to Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece to either sign long-term contracts with Iran or be cut off. State-run Press TV had earlier reported that exports were being cut off outright for all six.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iiNkwYk2DNYt1CHwPgAcm7GN4m4A?docId=056de8ca13594c19a4630db5726c5f4c
So, not all but some, and the threat to keep carrying on cuts.

[Plantagenet]

Surely the EU can't be too upset that Iran is threatening to cut off their oil. After all, the EU just voted to boycott Iranian oil.

[eXpat]

Surely the EU can't be too upset that Iran is threatening to cut off their oil. After all, the EU just voted to boycott Iranian oil.

And there are other customers, China, India and these:
Summary Box: US bid to crimp Iran oil sales stumbles

UNCLE SAM STYMIED: U.S. attempts to squeeze Iran financially so that it ends its pursuit of nuclear weapons has run into some problems; allies of the United States. Asian countries are resisting U.S. entreaties to stop buying Iranian oil, which provided Tehran with revenue of $100 billion last year.

FRIENDS LIKE THESE: South Korea and Japan, which is still dealing with energy shortages after a nuclear disaster, are giving U.S. officials a polite brushoff. South Korea is meeting with U.S. officials, but they say there is no viable alternative for a country that relies on Iran for 10 percent of its supply.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/summary-box-us-bid-to-crimp-iran-oil-sales-stumbles/2012/02/15/gIQA3LE5FR_story.html

[Mesuge]

expat> thanks for the coverage, the timing of the latest explanation makes finally some sense..

No wonder, when of that lot of six countries the sarko-frenchiez cabal and dutchies have been known for several recent decades as the most dogmatic "atlantists" and "pro zionists" out there..

What about the poor little piglet Portugal, isn't its inclusion on that oily hit list just about kicking the Barroso person in the ankle, lol.

PS offtopic, as the left website banner "peak oil is you" shows Kunstler's portrait now, I wonder about the inner optimism of that guy, recently relocating into certainly gorgeous county just in the middle of NY state, where millions of americans went to visit the parks and summer camps. That's a brave statement about awaiting slow/mild crash scenario, I'd not particularly subscribe to. The oracle from Greenwich village..

[eXpat]

expat> thanks for the coverage, the timing of the latest explanation makes finally some sense..

Thanks! and more on those meetings
Tehran warns responsibility for oil embargo will rest with EU

TEHRAN, Feb. 15 (MNA) – An Iranian Foreign Ministry official has said that the European Union will be responsible for the consequences of its illogical decision to impose oil embargo against Iran.

Hassan Tajik, the director of the Foreign Ministry’s Western Europe Department, made the remarks on Wednesday in comments on separate meetings that he held with ambassadors of Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece, the Netherlands, and France, in which a range of issues, including the oil embargo that the EU imposed on Iran on January 23, were discussed.

Dismissing the news reports saying that Iran has halted oil exports to a number of European countries, Tajik said, “Oil exports have not been halted yet, and we have made efforts to… inform European people of the fact that European governments will be responsible for the consequences of the decision.”

An informed official at the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) told the Persian service of the Mehr News Agency on Wednesday that Iran has halted oil exports to the Netherlands and France and has given an ultimatum to Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Greece.

“The Islamic Republic of Iran has stopped oil exports to France and the Netherlands,” the unidentified official said.

The official added that the NIOC has given an ultimatum to Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Greece to extend their long-term contracts, saying, “If these countries ignore the ultimatum, Iran’s oil exports to these countries will be cut as well.”

Iranian Oil Minister Rostam Qasemi announced on January 29 that Iran would cut oil exports to “certain countries” in the near future.

The Iranian parliament has also prepared a plan calling for a halt to Iran’s oil exports to the European Union states that voted for sanctions on the country’s oil industry, which will reportedly be discussed in the parliament after Iran’s next parliamentary election, which is scheduled to be held on March 2.

http://www.mehrnews.com/en/newsdetail.aspx?NewsID=1535477&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[eXpat]

And here is the confirmation from the French ambassador that those meettings took place:
French Ambassador Acknowledges Tough Impacts of Iran Oil Ban on EU States

TEHRAN (FNA)- France's Ambassador to Iran Bruno Foucher acknowledged on Wednesday that sanctioning Iranian oil supplies will leave pressing impacts on the European countries.

"Definitely, sanctions will exert pressures on oil importing European states," Foucher told reporters after a meeting with Iranian foreign ministry officials.

Foucher and his counterparts from five other European states were summoned to the Iranian foreign ministry on Wednesday to account for their governments' actions with regard to the EU's recently announced sanctions against Iran.

"A way should be found for it," Foucher added.

As regards his meeting with Iranian foreign ministry officials, the French diplomat announced that the meeting was about the recently imposed sanctions against Iran.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry summoned the ambassadors of Italy, Spain, France, Greece, Portugal and the Netherlands to protest at the EU's unilateral sanctions against Tehran over its peaceful nuclear program.

http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=9010174936

[eXpat]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/iran-to-eu-nations-oil-exports-might-stop/2012/02/15/gIQARYNiGR_graphic.html
The colour line will come in handy to India and China.