The Drought Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

[dohboi]

"whether the inhabitants of the future deserts would submit to their fate without invading northern regions"

Here are some inhabitants invading northwards:

The great migration: Texas cattle heading north
'If we're going to survive, we have to go north,' says one rancher

For more than a century, through a dozen dry spells when lakes disappeared and the land died, thousands of cows from the Swenson Land & Cattle Co have roamed the fields of Texas.

Yet the drought currently ravaging the southern Plains has done what the Dust Bowl could not: chased them off this land and driven them more than 600 miles north to Nebraska.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/46191566/ns/us_news-environment/

[dohboi]

More on North American drought, esp. ag. consequences:

http://nationalhogfarmer.com/nutrition/drought-conditions-spread-raising-concerns-2012-crops

The spread of drought conditions into northwest Iowa and southern Minnesota – some of the most productive corn and soybean acreage in the country – has weather and economic analysts worried.

In a recent CME Group Daily Livestock Report, Steve Meyer, President of Paragon Economics, Adel, IA, says the National Weather Service in a recent report in the Des Moines Register indicates that the situation is expected to get worse. USDA’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Seasonal Drought Outlook ( http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/index.php ) suggests that the western Corn Belt dryness will persist through April and will spread to eastern Nebraska. The outlook also shows signs of continuing and spreading areas of drought in the southwest and southeast – bad news for suffering cattlemen.

Then there's this:

http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2012/02/chinas-largest-freshwater-lake-dries-up.html

And this:

http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2012/02/most-severe-drought-mexico-has-ever.html

[dohboi]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/global-development/gallery/2012/feb/01/drought-mexico-in-pictures?newsfeed=true

[dohboi]

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

Almost no change from last week, besides a spread of the worst level of drought across southern GA.

As the commentary points out, if there is no significant new precipitation in the midwest soon, conditions will officially plunge into more severe and longer term drought centering around the MN/IO border. Expect higher corn prices, since this is the center of the cornbelt.

[M_B_S]

Published: Feb. 9, 2012 at 4:47 PM
BUENOS AIRES, Feb. 9 (UPI) -- Argentina is slashing foreign currency outflows in expectation of tougher economic times, a likely result of the drought-related drop in commodities harvests and exports and fallout from the EU debt crisis.Read more: http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/201 ... z1m9heY2tk
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The situation in Argentina becomes critical, while energy prices explode and the harvest is gone.

The apocalyptic knights Peak Oil and Climate Change are back in Argentina

You can print money = debt but no oil, coal, gas, uranium or food.

What will you eat when the (s)oil is gone?

M_B_S

[kiwichick]

hi mbs

sounds ugly over there

is this the la nina effect

the east coast of australia has been having the opposite problem; floods

[M_B_S]

It is la nina but also climate change and as future studies will show the big vulcanic events in 2010/2011 in chile, africa and iceland.

M_B_S

[Pops]

...global grain harvest... up 53 million tonnes ...

... [but less than consumption] seven of the past 12 years

Thanks for watching this MBS.

This is the perfect example of why headlines such as Biggest Harvest Ever!!!!! are used to lull the lillies - or at least poke people in the eye.

"Look, doomers, the pond is half open!"

[dohboi]

http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2012/02/texas-drought-20-percent-of-freshwater.html

Texas drought: 20 percent of freshwater fish threatened with extinction

Texas has over 150 species of native freshwater fishes and ranks second in amount of angling ($6.6B annually). But 5 species are now extinct, and 20% are threatened with extinction or absence from Texas.

And meanwhile further east:

Florida’s peninsula remains dry. Wildfires are an increasing threat across central and southern Florida.

And much further east and south:

http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2012/02/10-million-face-drought-in-sahel-cycles.html

10 million face drought in the Sahel – ‘The cycles are getting closer together’

An estimated 10 million people across Africa's arid Sahel region are feeling the effects of drought, humanitarian agencies say.

A survey by the U.N. Children's Fund estimated there will be 1 million cases of severe malnutrition caused by the drought, with between 25 percent and 60 percent of those people likely to die without emergency assistance

[rockdoc123]

oh for crying out loud....get the facts straight please.

GAINESVILLE, Florida, September 9, 2008 (ENS) - Fishes that once were abundant in North American streams, rivers and lakes are now disappearing, with nearly 40 percent of all species in jeopardy, according to the most detailed assessment of the conservation status of freshwater fishes in the last 20 years.

The report shows that 61 fishes are presumed extinct, and 280 species are classed as endangered. In addition 190 are considered threatened, and 230 fishes are listed as vulnerable to extinction.

The new report, published in the journal "Fisheries," was conducted by a team of scientists from the United States, Canada and Mexico, led by scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey. The team examined the status of continental freshwater fishes and those that migrate between rivers and oceans.

"Freshwater fish have continued to decline since the late 1970s, with the primary causes being habitat loss, dwindling range and introduction of non-native species," said Mark Myers, director of the USGS. "In addition, climate change may further affect these fish.

this is something that has been well documented over the last decade throughout North America. Suddenly suggesting it has something to do with climate change flies in the face of all of the past work.

[AgentR11]

http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2012/02/texas-drought-20-percent-of-freshwater.html

Texas drought: 20 percent of freshwater fish threatened with extinction
Texas has over 150 species of native freshwater fishes and ranks second in amount of angling ($6.6B annually). But 5 species are now extinct, and 20% are threatened with extinction or absence from Texas.

Errrr.. you really put your foot in it on this one.

First, Texas angling is ALMOST exclusively largemouth bass in lakes. Guess what Texas doesn't have any of naturally? You guessed it, lakes. Its funny, but true; we gots none. So what we have done, is built dams everywhere possible for flood control and civil water needs, destroying most of the natural systems that those native fish had evolved to survive in. Stock largemouth and hybrid striped bass in these giant freshwater lakes, and you got big business; nothing natural or native about it, but definitely fun.

This has nothing to do with drought, and everything to do with primates playing beaver.

Now, putting a bit harsher light on it, Texas native freshwater fish are fairly unimpressive, given the very marginal aquatic habitats most are built to live in; so its mostly minnow x and minnow y that are in trouble. Other than this one Polyodon spathula and East Texas is pretty much the Western limit of its range. While its troubling to lose minnow x, the dams are almost certainly the culprit, not climate change or droubts.

nb.. .the largemouth bass that we most fish here, isn't really a native, its a hybridesque monster! (most of its genes are from Florida strains if I recall right) The native black bass is typically a scrawny little river fish.

[dohboi]

http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2012/02/weather-forecasters-east-africa-should.html

Weather forecasters: East Africa should be prepared for further food insecurity

East Africa, still battling a hunger crisis, should be prepared for another dry spell and further food insecurity due to the persistence of La Niña weather conditions that last year brought severe drought to the region, weather forecasters have warned.

“La Niña conditions are expected to persist until March to May 2012,” the World Meteorological Office said on its website on Sunday.

March to May is the main ‘long rains’ season for the region, which farmers and livestock herders depend upon for crops and pasture to grow and for water sources to replenish...

Some 13 million people in the Horn of Africa went hungry last year after severe drought hit the region.

[dohboi]

http://feww.wordpress.com/2012/02/16/texas-drought-causes-urban-forest-die-off/

2011 Texas drought kills 5.6 million urban shade trees

Last year’s unrelenting drought killed an estimated 5.6 million shade trees, dubbed urban forest,’ throughout the communities across the state, Texas Forest Service(TFS) reported.

* “This estimate is preliminary because trees are continuing to die from the drought,” said Pete Smith, Texas Forest Service staff forester and lead researcher. “This means we may be significantly undercounting the number of trees that ultimately will succumb to the drought. That number may not be known until the end of 2012, if ever.”
* “All cities and towns in Texas were included in the study with the exception of the Trans Pecos region, where tree mortality was determined to be a result of a February 2011 cold snap; not the drought,” said the report.
* The loss of economic and environmental benefits provided by the trees is estimated at about $280 million per year, TFS said.
* To prevent safety hazards posed by falling dead trees, the authorities will have to remove them. The estimated cost of removing the dead trees is $560 million.

So over two years of drought, the estimated cost is over a billion dollars.

Are our urban Texans seeing this up close?

(By the way, I do appreciate the feedback and info on Texas lakes and fish back a bit from our Texans. Knowing we have folks from that state, I especially look for articles on conditions down there. Doesn't mean that I can vouch for their perfect accuracy, and I appreciate corrections and perspectives seeing this up close. Isn't that exactly the benefit of having a number of perspectives on board here?)

[dohboi]

Meanwhile, back in my neck of the woods:

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9SVCKMG2.htm

Dry Midwest winter spurs worries about agriculture

An exceptionally dry winter in Minnesota and other Upper Midwest states has some officials worrying about the potential effects on agriculture.

Minnesota's agriculture and commerce commissioners sent a signal when they warned their farmers this week that in light of the drought it's time to start thinking seriously about buying crop insurance because the deadline is less than a month off.

[kiwichick]

drought also a possibility in the UK

bbc report

could be messy with the olympics in town

[M_B_S]

Drought declared in the south east of England The south east of England is now officially in a state of drought, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs admitted today.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthn ... gland.html
Video
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UK and winter drought?

That is something that indicates cognitive dissonance @ my brain.

Climate Change!

M_B_S

[dohboi]

Good to hear that some of our friends in TX are getting some relief. We got a bit of snow here in the last couple days. We now have snow on the ground--an amazingly rare occurrence this winter so far.

[dohboi]

Yep, here's a link:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/9093639/Drought-declared-in-the-south-east-of-England.html

[dohboi]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/season_drought.gif

Not much improvement predicted for the US.

Other versions:

http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/longrang/mar12marp.gif

http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/monthly_precip.php

[M_B_S]

http://www.dairyherd.com/dairy-news/lat ... 87303.html
Drought improves in Texas, worsens in western U.S.
Nevada had 81.80 percent of the state rated in moderate or worse drought, up from 81.59 percent the prior week. Arizona saw moderate drought rise to 86.92 percent of the state from 80.56 percent. And New Mexico also saw drought spread.

Another area of concern is the upper Midwest and Northern Plains, where spring planting of corn, soybeans and wheat is set to start soon. Soil moisture levels need boosting to ensure good production potential for the key U.S. crops.

Iowa, the largest U.S. corn and soybean producting state has about 20 percent of the state currently suffering moderate drought.
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When the drought hits the corn belt of the USA the world will face food riots of unpredictibale scale.

Climate Warming? Where is the problem?

M_B_S