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THE International Energy Agency (IEA) Thread pt 3 (merged)

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: IEA : world set all time high oil supply record in 2011

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 04 Feb 2012, 09:56:08

Here is another piece that Meemo should read. Note that most of the production is asphalt which is fine if your paving roads but will there be enough diesel to run the paver and rollers?
http://fossil.energy.gov/programs/reser ... _Sheet.pdf
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Re: IEA : world set all time high oil supply record in 2011

Unread postby meemoe_uk » Sat 04 Feb 2012, 10:54:21

>I don't understand where you are getting this point about a hundred years.
If you'd read my posts before commenting you'd know I was short handing for peakers and their predecessors, the running outers. Combined, they have been predicting oil doom for over 100 yeras.

Anyway.... I don't expect to convince any of you away from PO_Doom_is_now. I just want to show you the oil supply figures every year. How they go up every year. If PO was now then the figures would go DOWN every year. You'll have your excuses. I can say why they are flawed but you won't see.
No doubt if I brought an oil is running out doomer from the 19th century into today and show him the rise in oil production thru the 20th and 21st centurys, he'd make an excuse for the oil rise not counting and then join you in shouting peak oil doom is about now!

see you all next year. Plenty more oil supply increase is going to come from the new golden age of oil supply that we live in.
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Re: IEA : world set all time high oil supply record in 2011

Unread postby dorlomin » Sat 04 Feb 2012, 11:15:47

meemoe_uk wrote:Anyway.... I don't expect to convince any of you away from PO_Doom_is_now. I just want to show you the oil supply figures every year. How they go up every year. If PO was now then the figures would go DOWN every year.
You are still very very confused. Peak oil is about when crude oil supply is no longer able to raise.

You show figures for all liquid hydrocarbons a different thing that in itself is an interesting debate, the cost and genuine value of many of the liquids we are now using to substitute for crude oil.

And peak oil is not about when crude oil supplies go down but when they can no longer raise.

You refuse to listen to what people are saying, refuse to understand peoples positions yet continue with inflammitory abusive posts. It comes across that you are more interested in the abuse than discussing your views.
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Re: IEA : world set all time high oil supply record in 2011

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Sat 04 Feb 2012, 13:42:36

meemoe_uk wrote:Anyway.... I don't expect to convince any of you away from PO_Doom_is_now. I just want to show you the oil supply figures every year. How they go up every year. If PO was now then the figures would go DOWN every year. You'll have your excuses. I can say why they are flawed but you won't see.


You keep making the common corny mistake of referring to everyone here who is NOT cornucopian as a doomer. That is your failure. You reject anyone who points out the fallacy in your argument with this simple and common mistake. Its an obvious deflection and intentional diversion from constructive debate. It's also childish.

Your refusal to understand the difference between TOTAL LIQUIDS increases and the PLATEAU of global CRUDE production, is a sure sign that you do not get the basic concepts of Peak Oil, nor do you want to attempt to understand them. There will be no "Doom", most of us who grasp the picture understand that. What there will be, when it becomes common knowledge that decline has begun, is economic contraction, lifestyle change(forced), and possibly serious resource conflict on a global scale. Thats not doom, and its not Die-off.

Your constant claim of TOTAL LIQUIDS increases is MISSING THE POINT as others here have tried to enlighten you to. Those of us who tend to gravitate towards seeking REASONS and CAUSE for the facts available can grasp what the increase in total liquids means. Its simply the logical next step along the plateau as CRUDE PRODUCTION nears decline. Sometime not to long from now, even all that non crude supply wont be able to prop up your numbers.

Just because it didnt happen exactly when PO prognosticators said it would does not make them wrong. The inevitability of even total liquids decline will come. I think after looking at some of the agencies, like the EIA, IEA, etc, even their bullish outlook has changed quite dramatically in the last 5 years. Its no wonder..the facts don't support their rosy predictions of even a few years back.

This chart below is a glaring example of what i was talking about above...how you can connect the invisible dots between where we are NOW and where we need to be in a few very short years escapes me. I frankly cannot believe we bring on enough non conventional crude to bridge such a huge gap. If you can make a cogent, fact based argument supporting it, then do it. Stop yelling at doomers and come up with some sort of factual case that gets us across that giant gap..even out to just 2020! if you can do that I'll hang up my Airline pilot hat here at PO.com.

Image

I recall a time just a few years ago..maybe 3 or 4..that very same august body giving us the chart above predicted global crude supplies would grow to almost 130mbpd by 2030. Interesting the change seen in just that short time span. Now the 2009 claim by the very same group says we wont get above 97mbpd. I wonder what that chart is going to look like in as little as the NEXT 5 YEARS!
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Re: IEA : world set all time high oil supply record in 2011

Unread postby kublikhan » Sat 04 Feb 2012, 17:44:15

meemoe_uk wrote:What you seem to be missing is that dollars are a fiat currency. There were times in the 1st half of the 20th century Oil was 10 cents a barrel. How would you tell a kublikhan living in the 1930s depression that $20 oil was a really good price for a stable and prosperous economy? Wouldnt he say " There are many things that wouldn't be economical if the price was that high " ?
As long as it is easier to do stuff by using oil than without, then the economy and dollars would evolve around any oil price.
Do you understand how inflation works? In today's dollars, the price of oil was about $16 in 1928. About the same price it was in 1998. The fact that in 1928 dollars oil cost one dollar but in 1998 dollars oil cost over $10 is irrelevent. It was NOT 10x as expensive in '98 as in '28 in real terms, just inflation adjusted funny money. In real terms, the man of '28 had to give up about the same portion of his income as the man in '98 to buy oil. On the other hand, now the real price AND the nominal price of oil is over $100. The kub of today really does have to give up over 5x as much of his income to purchase oil as the kub of '98 or '28. If the real cost of oil further increased 100 fold as you suggest, kub could no longer afford to buy gasoline to put in his car. You could preach to kub all day about how a gallon of gas can do the work of 300 men, kub would just reply that he cannot afford to hire 300 men either. And it's not just poor kub who has to pay more for energy. That cost increase affects everything. The oil and gas companies too have to spend more on equipment, materials, energy costs, etc:


Costs to produce oil and gas rose 11 percent over the past six months and are expected to continue their surge, pressuring energy companies already being hit by countries that are demanding a bigger cut of profits, according to a new study. Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), a unit of information provider and consultancy IHS Inc (IHS.N), also said costs to build new refineries and petrochemical plants rose 8 percent in the last period.

"The oil and gas industry worldwide is suffering from sticker shock. While motorists may see the price at the pump, the industry is seeing very dramatic increases in costs," said Dan Yergin, chairman of CERA. The IHS/CERA Upstream Capital Costs Index (UCCI) rose to 196 at the end of the third quarter from the starting point of 100 in 2000, meaning that equipment that would have cost $100 at the start of that period would cost $196 now. The UCCI was 179 at the end of the first quarter.

Costs to drill new oil and gas projects have been rising steadily since 2005 due to sky-high demand for the steel, equipment and laborers. CERA had predicted that increases might slow earlier this year, but said they had increased their pace since that prediction.

The delays and cost increases have also supported the rising prices, increasing the real price to produce oil and keeping production levels down. "Delays and slowness of new capacity coming on -- that lag is putting a big foundation under prices," Yergin said. "The effect of these costs is the big under appreciated factor in today's prices."


The real cost of extracting oil is going up, not just the funny fiat money cost. It is really more expensive(monetarily and energy wise) to steam clean sand for oil than it is swing an axe and watch oil gush out. And few could afford to buy oil if it went to $10,000 a barrel. Thus the price of oil in real terms will never get that high, at least not at today's volume of production. Maybe a few tiny niche industries could afford to pay that price, but not 99% of the oil as used today.

AirlinePilot wrote:Your refusal to understand the difference between TOTAL LIQUIDS increases and the PLATEAU of global CRUDE production, is a sure sign that you do not get the basic concepts of Peak Oil, nor do you want to attempt to understand them.
Meemoe could you answer this one too? Do you realize that biofuels are included in total liquids and that biofuels are not oil? Do you also realize that if we are in fact producing large amounts of biofuels it is because we are seeking alternatives to oil? Thus pointing to large amounts of biofuels and other non-crude sources being produced actually weakens your case that crude oil is cheap and abundant?
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: IEA : world set all time high oil supply record in 2011

Unread postby dorlomin » Sat 04 Feb 2012, 18:08:14

kublikhan wrote:Meemoe could you answer this one too? Do you realize that biofuels are included in total liquids and that biofuels are not oil? Do you also realize that if we are in fact producing large amounts of biofuels it is because we are seeking alternatives to oil? Thus pointing to large amounts of biofuels and other non-crude sources being produced actually weakens your case that crude oil is cheap and abundant?

Meemoe has me on ignore so wont see this but the consaqunecies of this really need to be laid out.

We are burning food to run over sized cars because we cannot find enough crude to pump.

That burning of food means there is less for the poorer in the world to eat.

We have moved from when coal replaced grains as a means of transport (horse to rail) back to when grain has once again become a means of transport (biofuel). Whats more much of this is only possible with government subsidy because to grow the grains requires oil.

The 'long emergency' peak oil scenario is now snatching food of off poor Asian families tables to run down the mall in a pick up truck.
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Re: IEA : world set all time high oil supply record in 2011

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 04 Feb 2012, 19:20:09

dorlomin wrote:[The 'long emergency' peak oil scenario is now snatching food of off poor Asian families tables to run down the mall in a pick up truck.

8O How did you know I'd be reading that while eating a slice of pizza I just made a ten mile round trip for in a 4X4 pickup???
I did drop off mail at the PO and picked up wine for the girls so it was a combined trip at least. :roll:
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Re: IEA : world set all time high oil supply record in 2011

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 04 Feb 2012, 19:22:12

vtsnowedin wrote:
dorlomin wrote:[The 'long emergency' peak oil scenario is now snatching food of off poor Asian families tables to run down the mall in a pick up truck.

8O How did you know I'd be reading that while eating a slice of pizza I just made a ten mile round trip for in a 4X4 pickup???
I did drop off mail at the PO and picked up wine for the girls so it was a combined trip at least. :roll:

Excellent point about the food to fuel by the way.
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Re: IEA : world set all time high oil supply record in 2011

Unread postby ralfy » Sun 05 Feb 2012, 08:46:08

meemoe_uk wrote:>I don't understand where you are getting this point about a hundred years.
If you'd read my posts before commenting you'd know I was short handing for peakers and their predecessors, the running outers. Combined, they have been predicting oil doom for over 100 yeras.


I read your posts but your arguments don't make sense. Not only did you ignore every counter-argument I raised, you just repeat the same mistakes. The most important is that the very same organization that you use to bolster your argument you also criticize. So which is which?


Anyway.... I don't expect to convince any of you away from PO_Doom_is_now. I just want to show you the oil supply figures every year. How they go up every year. If PO was now then the figures would go DOWN every year. You'll have your excuses. I can say why they are flawed but you won't see.
No doubt if I brought an oil is running out doomer from the 19th century into today and show him the rise in oil production thru the 20th and 21st centurys, he'd make an excuse for the oil rise not counting and then join you in shouting peak oil doom is about now!



Doesn't the data include NGL, as stated in your first post? Doesn't this also support the BP finding about substitutes now used to make up for increasing demand? If so, isn't that further proof of peak oil? Otherwise, we should not be seeing the use of substitutes but ramped up production for light oil, right? After all, didn't ARAMCO state in 2009 that they could reach 15 mb/d by 2011? If so, then we shouldn't we be seeing total production at the mid-90s at least, right?


see you all next year. Plenty more oil supply increase is going to come from the new golden age of oil supply that we live in.


Again, the same errors? Your data shows substitutes being used to meet increasing demand. To argue that we should see "plenty more oil supply increase" we should be seeing less reliance on substitutes and more light oil production.
http://sites.google.com/site/peakoilreports/
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Re: IEA : world set all time high oil supply record in 2011

Unread postby ralfy » Sun 05 Feb 2012, 08:58:59

In addition to what AirlinePilot shared, the same chart from the IEA assumes that conventional sources will not follow historical flow rates. If they do, then total energy production may decline. On top of that, we see something like a 9 pct increase in energy production for the next two decades. If energy demand goes up by around 2 pct per annum, then we may see the effects of peak oil even before oil production drops. Finally, we can see that chart in relation to one report from BP mentioned here:

http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailycha ... onsumption

That is, excess demand met by biofuels and non-conventional sources of energy, which is taking place amid high oil prices (which should lead to significant ramping up of light oil production, which isn't taking place, as seen, ironically, in the same data that meemoe_uk presented).

Thus, far from showing that peak oil is a myth, what has been taking place the past five years validates this so-called "myth".

Finally, I really don't see the point in wasting more time with meemoe_uk, so I'm putting that user account in my "ignore" list.
http://sites.google.com/site/peakoilreports/
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Re: THE International Energy Agency (IEA) Thread pt 2 (merge

Unread postby Graeme » Fri 13 Apr 2012, 19:04:48

This was also posted on the front page.

The New EIA Oil Supply Data Confirms Your Peak Oil Fears

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released full-year 2011 world oil production data. In this post, I would like show some graphs of recent data, and provide some views as to where this leads with respect to future production.
World oil supply is not growing very much
The fitted line in Figure 1 suggests a “normal” growth in oil supplies (including substitutes) of 1.6% a year, based on the 1983 to 2005 pattern, or total growth of 10.2% between 2005 and 20011. Instead of 10.2%, actual growth between 2005 and 2010 amounted to only 3.0% including crude oil and substitutes.



It is easy to find small opportunities where it looks possible to increase oil production, but on a world-wide basis, it appears likely that at best, very slow growth will continue. The oil production of China and Russia were previously increasing, but now seem to be hitting plateaus. Even smaller groupings, such as the FSU excluding Russia, seem to be hitting plateaus.
Future prospects for oil supply look to be worse, especially if Iranian exports are taken off line, or if there are unexpected surprises on the downside. One concern is that political disruptions may take oil production offline in additional countries. Anther is that financial disruptions (perhaps related to European debt defaults) may lead to lower oil prices, cutting off some marginal supply.
On balance, it would appear that at best, oil production in the near future will be virtually flat, leading to more spiking of oil prices and greater world economic problems. Another possibility is that world production will begin to decline. The likelihood of decline would appear to be increased if more oil exporters encounter political disruptions, or if the world enters a major recession leading to an oil price decline.


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IEA : new monthly world total oils production record

Unread postby meemoe_uk » Fri 25 May 2012, 07:01:18

Yay! It's that time of the month again! The time when anyone interested in oil supply goes to the IEA website, and anyone whose a peaker blocks out reality - i.e. they insist only yesterday's method for oil extraction is valid. A Quadrilllion barrels found in some rock formation? Peakers insist it doesn't count, because we'll use at least todays tech to extract it.

Anyway, lets pretend there's some yet undiscovered reason why a barrel of oil doesn't count if we extract it with todays bucket and spade, rather than a bucket and spade bought last week.
Let's have a separate thread to celebrate the new long and golden age of oil of the 21st century. Also, its hard to keep track of all the new oil production records that are being set, its happening every other month!

peakers say all liquids is not at all like C&C, even those A.L.s is an excellent proxy to C&C, to within about 6%.

http://omrpublic.iea.org/omrarchive/11may12full.pdf
page 61

According to the IEA, the world set a new all time monthly oil production record in April 2012
at 90.96Mpbd
this beats the previous record set just 2 months prior in February of 90.82Mbpd. ( The intial figure for Feb wasn't a record but has been revised UPWARDS, making it the high record, except now April is higher )

:( 8O :shock: :? :x :-x :cry: :badgrin: <------- peakers

:-D :) :o 8) :lol: :P :razz: :oops: :roll: :wink: :mrgreen: <------ cornys

This evidences what I say about the IEA making 2 contradictory statements, their figures say peak oil hasn't happened yet, yet they will publish assertions of peak oil being 4 years ago. Still waiting for Pops to get back to me on that one.

next, have to dump this in response to the popular protests from peakers...

List of Preemptive peplys to tired old PO religion objections about new oil production record set
1.- The new oil is from filthy dirty dried up tar.
Nope, most is high quality conventional crude.
2. - It's record high oil prices that will cause society to collapse
Nope. For most of history, oil prices have been increasing, forcing the market to adjust. Never been a problem before. The world economy has grown fast during the history of oil.
3. - New oil sources are unconventional, so dont count
1st, wrong, most of the current oil supply is conventional, 2nd why shouldn't the small fraction of unconventional supply count? It's oil. Aren't we allowed to identify new sources of oil and exploit them? Who says? Was it written in the 12 commandments? If new sources aren't allowed, then peak oil happened 150 years ago when bucket and spade from the surface seep oil supply peaked and was being superceded by this new fangled 'dig down thru rock with a pick axe' oil.
4. -Oil demand is meeting supply, so that invalidates any new record oil prodcution, meaning peak oil has happened.
By that logic, peak oil happened 8000 years ago, when babylonian oil demand met supply. Also, anyone who tries this protest insinuates that demand meeting supply is some new thing that hasn't effectively happened before. By that logic, after over 8000 years of oil supply being higher than demand, we'd have a strategic petroleum reserve the size of a small sea by now. Dumb.


So what you peakers think to that eh?
My predictions - plenty of oil records will be broken in the next few months, next couple of years. The only cloud on the oil horizon is that in a few years TPTB might decide to crash the oil boom by contracting world money supply and crashing oil prices, like they did last time in late 1970s and early 1980s, then peakers will have something to hype about, at least on paper. In reality it would just be another man-made peak rather than the geological limit.
Last edited by meemoe_uk on Fri 25 May 2012, 08:03:39, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: IEA : new monthly world total oils production record

Unread postby vision-master » Fri 25 May 2012, 07:32:47

There's oil in them rocks.......

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Re: IEA : new monthly world total oils production record

Unread postby dsula » Fri 25 May 2012, 09:09:46

Is that a good thing? 90Mbps. I'm sure 95Mbps is even better. What about 100Mbps? Will that make a better planet? Or 500Mps, I'm sure 500Mps will finally make paradise on earth a reality, or won't it?
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Re: IEA : new monthly world total oils production record

Unread postby meemoe_uk » Fri 25 May 2012, 09:24:46

Why not call this site the peak shifting the goal posts site? That's all the members seem to do here.

No peak oil? shift the subject to peak conventional oil, no peak there? shift the subject to demand vs supply, no anomaly there? shift subject to whether more oil is better.

Hi dsula,
In terms of more prosperity for more people, yes, more oil production is better.
Your question is alluding more about world population and its ideal number to fit the planet. It's pretty off the mark wrt the direct question of peak oil, but I understand its hard being a doomer during a golden age of oil, you gotta clutch at any straw you can get.

You lot don't mine making a show of squirming in desperation do you?
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Re: IEA : new monthly world total oils production record

Unread postby dsula » Fri 25 May 2012, 09:50:25

meemoe_uk wrote:Hi dsula,
In terms of more prosperity for more people, yes, more oil production is better.
Your question is alluding more about world population and its ideal number to fit the planet. It's pretty off the mark wrt the direct question of peak oil, but I understand its hard being a doomer during a golden age of oil, you gotta clutch at any straw you can get.

You lot don't mine making a show of squirming in desperation do you?


Yeah, you see I'm not a doomer (actually I WISH doom would come swiflty, but I don't think it will). For me the important matter is QUALITY of life, which does not have much to do with material prosperity (of course within limitations). And as my general rule, quality_of_life = 1/population, you can see that I'm anxious to reduce the population.

And as alwyas I'm flabbergasted by people like you who blindly promote and cheer growth. It is then that I realize we're really DOOMED (but not fast enough).
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Re: IEA : new monthly world total oils production record

Unread postby BobInget » Fri 25 May 2012, 10:26:21

Record production, certainly. The top reason, you must admit, Saudi Arabia trying to break Iran text deleted by pumping an additional two million BBs' per day. You guess what happens if KSA keeps that up for another 90 days?

(between brothers, fights can be the worst) When a world's top two producers effectivly locked in a battle to the death, it could end badly.

KSA's feat, all the more remarkable as Iranian, Russian, Nigerian, Syrian, S. Sudan, oil deliveries are either missing in action or slowing dramatically. (Russia either cut production siding with Iran and Syria or simply trying to drive prices higher).
At the end of the day, only Iran will have surplus oil, (stored in tankers scattered across the Gulf) Even if it doesn't come to blows, when European sanctions go into effect in July, KSA's super efforts could, by then, endanger 'normal' production, forcing cut backs. Reasonable people might agree, KSA can't go on like this much longer. Don't forget how hot summer months are in SA. Exports will slacken, no matter.

While a financially wounded planet is adequately supplied today, where's the glut?

Fact: Saudi Arabia is taking delivery on its largest (Germany, US) military hardware orders in history.
Iran: digging in, refusing to budge on refining nuclear materials. Exports halved. Economy hurt.

Meanwhile, Israel's extreme right wing leaders can't wait, as (they feel) Iran stalls
for time, Perhaps, on the verge of developing N. warheads. Aftermath of a nuclear war in the ME will be the subject of a hundred books. (attacking nuclear infrastructure, even with conventional bombs, constitutes a nuclear war). Millions downwind will in the badness of painful time, perish.

Define 'Peak Oil': "How much oil can we afford to burn?" Saudi Arabia, Iran, are shelling out Hundreds of Billions for weapons they feel as are important as drill rigs for survival. How much a N war will add to a barrel of oil is unknown. Anyone who quotes a number is guessing.

Late news: President Obama dispatched nuclear experts to Israel. Pray for mankind but ask yourself, What If Iran and Saudi Arabia did not have oil and why, if it is not in short supply, are we fighting over it?
Last edited by Ferretlover on Fri 25 May 2012, 10:37:54, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: IEA : new monthly world total oils production record

Unread postby Ferretlover » Fri 25 May 2012, 10:42:34

Put things in perspective:
Desperation is the energy wasted to run those trucks (in VM's post above) to haul around a bunch of rocks, then more energy wasted to squeeze a few gallons of oil out of them. Then, more energy used to transport the oil, etc.
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Re: IEA : new monthly world total oils production record

Unread postby AdTheNad » Fri 25 May 2012, 11:26:32

meemoe_uk wrote:List of Preemptive peplys to tired old PO religion objections about new oil production record set

You missed number 5. The peply(?) you always miss because you have no comeback. What is the net energy of the new total oil production record? Do you leave that out since it doesn't show a new peak and actually highlights the real problem?
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Re: IEA : new monthly world total oils production record

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 25 May 2012, 12:12:28

NGL (counted by the liars at EIA) is not oil, but rather a minor subset that may replace some gasoline. This is why (among several reasons) diesel prices remain historically high. You can gin up the gas supply with fake gasoline substitutes, but not diesel which is made from real oil

Including ethanol as oil is equally disingenuous. It ruins engines. My 2-stroke and 4-stroke lawn tools are in the shop because the corn liqueur destroyed parts. What is that doing to the expensive volvo and tacoma? It is also has a negative EROEI and so is double counting. The natural gas, coal, petroleum that goes into farming and distillation should be debited from the IEA numbers.

Real oil is in decline.
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