THE Eurozone Economics Thread pt 1 (merged) Archived

[Daniel_Plainview]

Spain's Youth Unemployment Exceeds 50%

While Greece, and Portugal, are quite bad, at 30.7% and 46.6% respectively, it is Spain where the youth unemployment pain is most acute: at 51.4%, more than half of the youth eligible for work does not have a job ...

[ralfy]

"Eurozone will collapse this year, says Nouriel Roubini"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/fina ... ubini.html

[dolanbaker]

Infinite money printing will most likely postpone the collapse indefinately!

[Timo]

This is a not-so-hypothetical question for speculation's sake - Suppose the EU does crumble or collapse or simply cease to exist this year. Further suppose that someone was to travel to Europe in autumn 2012, specifically to London, Germany, Austria, and Italy. If imminent doom for Europe proves true, what could such a traveler expect to see politically and economically?

[SeaGypsy]

I love how these pundits always have to mention how much this is going to harm China. Like when they were saying the 08 crisis would force recession or that if growth fell under 8% China would collapse under it's own weight. Like when they have been trying to force a free float of their currency. Yet nothing of the sort has happened or is going to happen any time soon/ so leave it off already. China is ahead of the game. They have had totalitarian government since Mao. The US only got it last week. Europe will have to get it chunk by chunk.

[SeaGypsy]

This is a not-so-hypothetical question for speculation's sake - Suppose the EU does crumble or collapse or simply cease to exist this year. Further suppose that someone was to travel to Europe in autumn 2012, specifically to London, Germany, Austria, and Italy. If imminent doom for Europe proves true, what could such a traveler expect to see politically and economically?

London will be London, the odd riot. The GBP will soar if the Euro crashes, buying some time.

Germany Austria and Italy will be along with The Netherlands rapidly heading towards a racist re institution of fascism in response to the race slanted looting which will ensue when 2 things happen. 1/ endless and fairly comfortable social security gets seriously cut & 2/ when visa extensions and family reuniting/ refugee visas stop.

If you are well set up in rural parts of the countries mentioned you might be ok, but as a city bound traveler, I think things will get pretty messy on the mainland this year.

[dsula]

"Eurozone will collapse this year, says Nouriel Roubini"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/fina ... ubini.html

Isn't that the same guy who predicted the end of the world due to a commerical real-estate crash by no later than Dec 2008?

[dolanbaker]

Most of these "predictions" are a bit like the plot in "Thunderbirds" where disasters are unstoppable due to the lack of an "off" switch, we have seen time after time, "safety devices" being applied to prevent the total collapse that would have happened without any evasive action!

The economy will crumble slowly rather than collapse rapidly, barring a major war!

[rangerone314]

This is a not-so-hypothetical question for speculation's sake - Suppose the EU does crumble or collapse or simply cease to exist this year. Further suppose that someone was to travel to Europe in autumn 2012, specifically to London, Germany, Austria, and Italy. If imminent doom for Europe proves true, what could such a traveler expect to see politically and economically?

?

[rangerone314]

"Eurozone will collapse this year, says Nouriel Roubini"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/fina ... ubini.html

I concurred with his earliest assessments in 2005, which is one reason why I abandoned a house search in 2005 and waited until late 2008 to get a bank-owned foreclosure.

I put my money where my mouth is now and have a few hundred shares of TZA and SPXU. (Triple inverse funds against Russell 2000 and S&P500).

[OilFinder2]

Somebody in the Eurozone is doing well.

Cup Flows Over for German Labor Market

German labor market data released Tuesday cast a positive light on the economy not only due to the fall in unemployment, but also due to the steady rise of people paying into the country’s social security system.

The latest data showed that in November the number of individuals with jobs that pay into the social security system increased by 60,000. The data comes a bit behind the unemployment data, which are reported for the current month.

“For a country in which pensions, health care and other benefits are mostly paid out of payroll taxes, this is arguably the single most important statistic,” Berenberg chief economist Holger Schmieding wrote in a note.

Mr. Schmieding calls the number of jobs paying into the social security system “core employment,” and points out that this number of employment has risen by 714,000 on the year in November. This compares with a reduction of 220,000 in unemployment over the same period. In other words, people are re-joining the labor market, who hadn’t even been counted before.

[...]

[dolanbaker]

Germany recently raised its retirement age from 65 to 67, they're working for longer so are staying in the labour market.

[dorlomin]

A house made of Euros

[Corella]

Is the atmosphere in this thread really driven by objectiveness or do certain fears according EU probably play a role? I can understand that socialization of all the debts cause for distrust. But so far things are under process and it is not yet clear how much creditors will be included. Remember Lehman and imagine what could have happened AIG following same event. EU is not totalitarian and things happen slower here. So far there is still some life in the old dog... (and US budget seems not too sustainable too, we´re all sitting in the same boat).

Cheers

[SeaGypsy]

How is the view up there mate? Don't pretend you have a clue. We mostly discuss things here and leave absolutes to the 'what is' part. There is a heck of a lot going on right now and it's a bit of a waste of time posting if you haven't got a grip. Something you won't find in the MSM. Sorry but not.

[ralfy]

"Eurozone will collapse this year, says Nouriel Roubini"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/fina ... ubini.html

Isn't that the same guy who predicted the end of the world due to a commerical real-estate crash by no later than Dec 2008?

I don't think he predicted the end of the world, but he did say that there would be a global economic crisis and very few believed him. For some details, read

"Dr. Doom"

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/17/magaz ... ist-t.html

Schiff was treated the same way:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lYkFYdLTTw8

I remember mentioning an IMF warning several years ago:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/24/busin ... 17823.html

in another forum and members laughed it off. During the same time, I saw a similar warning at the EIU, and they're issuing the same once more right now, together with the WB and other economists.

[Daniel_Plainview]

Mish -- French Consumption Plunges Most Since 1997

Courtesy of Google Translate, please consider French Consumption Drops Most Since 1997

Last year, consumption of French manufactured goods, food and energy fell by 0.5% on average, the largest drop since 1997. Even during the 2008-2009 recession, the decline was not as marked. December was particularly bad (- 0.7%), raising fears of a difficult early 2012 against a backdrop of rising unemployment. Paradoxically, the government relies on the announcement of a social VAT to encourage the French to bring forward purchases before the increase in the rate in October.

... The French economy is slowing far more rapidly than most expected. Increased taxes whether on everyone or just the rich, certainly will not help. Such economically inane programs will intensify the strength and the length of the European recession.

Will the French economy head for the toilet along with the PIIGS?

[Daniel_Plainview]

Greece to lose 160,000 jobs in 2012 as it heads into "a condition of absolute poverty"

About 160,000 jobs will be lost this year in the commerce sector, according to the National Confederation of Greek Commerce (ESEE) as the constant decline in disposable income has led to a sharp drop in turnover and a steep rise in the number of enterprises shutting down.

The jobs to be lost concern 60,000 employers and 100,000 employees in the sector, ESEE expects. Given the data for a 6.2 percent fall in household consumption in 2011 and the Eurostat forecast for a further decline by 4.3 percent this year, ESEE warns that soon Greece will be in a condition of absolute poverty.

With 60,000 enterprises having shut down since the start of the crisis to date, their number is set to double by the end of this year, ESEE estimates.

[dolanbaker]

Worst case for Greece would be to be unable to exploit this summers tourist season due to lack on money to operate the resorts!

[Corella]

How is the view up there mate?

Two pundits make themselves up at least three different opinions...
MSM had a hysteric rush according US-economy some year ago, more gentle opinions did warn already to better mind EU´s own business. Now worries go in all directions and the different way beyond the pond is considered.
The PO-part had reached mainstream awareness! It is widely taken serious, except certain lobby-agents and some extreme conservatives.

We mostly discuss things here and leave absolutes to the 'what is' part.

Since the Euro is buried already it doesn´t make the impression of a discussion...

There is a heck of a lot going on right now and it's a bit of a waste of time posting if you haven't got a grip. Something you won't find in the MSM. Sorry but not.

Hm, which conspiracy-idea would be missing in the MSM? Does this make the bloggosphere more serious? Oh yes, there is a heck of a lot going on. Among those, people sitting together who should have done before. All the EU-summits. I use to sit between the stools assuming much potential from those summits We still live in a world of economic war, but working together on a supra-national level eases the destructive part. I think this is underestimated and yes, i do not have a grip on things, nobody has! But we could nevertheless discuss, what concepts would be best to follow...