Student Researcher on Japan and Peak oil

[Tokyoyama]

Dear All,

I have recently begun researching peak oil, and despite the vast amount of conflicting information out there, the argument for at least a plateau in oil production and discovery seems to be prevailing. For those who are familar with this subject, it comes as no surprise that Japan, dependent on over 50% of oil for energy is a prime victim for this. What is more, being a resource-poor country (certainly in terms of oil), over 80% of its oil imports come from the volatile Middle East.
Researching on this subject is fascinating for me, perhaps because though I have been to Japan, the energy insecurity it faces was hardly apparent-until the Fukushima nuclear accident of course.
Even more surprising has been the lack of discussion on peak oil, and the prospect of 'resource nationalism' as even its main producer Saudi Arabia turns hawkish in order to use its resources for its growing population. Now nuclear power which was seen as an alternative may be cancelled out.

In light of the peak oil scenario, do you think the Japanese government is doing enough to secure energy or developing alternatives in order to address its energy security? What contingency planning do you think the government should be doing? Should discussion on the topic of peak oil be encouraged? Furthermore, what are your opinions on the benefits and consequences of Fukushima on Japan's energy policy to be less reliant on oil?

I appreciate every comment, suggestions, opinion.

Thank you

[Pops]

Welcome Tokyo.

Don't know much about Japan myself but I hope you get some good input.

[Shaved Monkey]

At a guess food security would be one of Japans biggest worries.
Japan imports not only oil but also food

The country imported, for example, 50% of its caloric intake of food and about 30% of the total value of food consumed in the late 1980s. It also depended on imports for about 85% of its total energy needs (including all of its petroleum and 89% of its coal) and nearly all of its iron, copper, lead, and nickel.

[seahorse3]

How are the Japanese replacing the power lost from these reactors at fukoshima? Are they now using oil to generate power again or have they simply reduced electrical demand?

[davep]

the argument for at least a plateau in oil production and discovery seems to be prevailing.

Didn't we hit peak discovery a long time ago?

[Pops]

Might find some info here:
http://www.meti.go.jp/english/earthquake/electricity/

[jedrider]

Well, as long as Japan keeps producing nifty cameras (my favorite) and, or course, automobiles that everyone wants, I think they are OK.

They were also smart enough to preserve much of their forest and concentrate their population in the cities.

However, no one will escape the effects Peak Oil.

[Tokyoyama]

thanks guys. davep- there is still a significant amount of people out there who do not accept this argument despite all indications.

[SeaGypsy]

thanks guys. davep- there is still a significant amount of people out there who do not accept this argument despite all indications.

Like who? Where is their evidence? There is no sane argument contrary, We have been burning more than we find solidly, every year, since at least the 1970's.

[Kristen]

Japan could theoretically resort to more fishing if there was a huge loss in food imports. However having a population of 127 million this would result in more over-fishing as well. One thing that is for sure is any disruption in oil supplies will have enormous repercussions for the whole world

[SeaGypsy]

Japan already rapes most of the Pacific from the edge of the South China Sea, to Micronesia, Hawaii and Antarctica, including having more ships in the Southern Ocean than any other nation. How they are going to do more fishing as oil gets more expensive I don't get. Japan is also heavily involved in deforestation from Papua to Vietnam.

[Shaved Monkey]

Japan could theoretically resort to more fishing if there was a huge loss in food imports. However having a population of 127 million this would result in more over-fishing as well. One thing that is for sure is any disruption in oil supplies will have enormous repercussions for the whole world

Japanese fishing industry is on the decline. Japan caught 12.8 million tons of fish in 1984 but only 6.35 million tons in 2000 and 5.52 million tons in 2002. In 2000, it imported 3.54 million tons of fish, double what it imported in 1984.

[Shaved Monkey]

Japan has just sorted out about 10% off its LPG needs for 30 or so years .

Japanese oil and gas explorer Inpex Corp holds a 72.8 per cent stake in the venture, with France's Total holding 24 per cent and three Japanese utilities the balance of the equity.

The project is to develop the Ichthys gasfield, located in the Browse Basin off northern Australia.
Annual exports will total 8.4 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas once it reaches full production, which is equal to more than 10 per cent of Japan's annual gas needs, with initial output planned from 2016.

Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/ichth ... z1jTXZr7zF

[AgentR11]

To your question, I think the Japanese government is doing what is doable. But what is doable just isn't enough. The real answer to me seems to be to yank the retail prices of electricity up to where they should be in a country like Japan. There just isn't enough of a signal to people to conserve, and without a stronger price signal, it just won't add up. The lights and A/C will have to fail in Tokyo in August before that discussion can happen though..

More in response to other posts in this thread, feel free to correct me, Tokyoyama if I'm off some...

On food, Japan's food imports are like ours, a luxury because we can afford to buy French this, Chinese that, and Chilean fish too. Japan's agricultural production is capped by government quotas, not physical limits. Its done this way to protect farming in a country that is not socially very conducive to farming. ie, how do you give up the lights and action of Tokyo in order to waddle around in the mud and dirt most of the time. It might be tight, but I suspect Japan could actually meet its caloric requirements internally if it became necessary.

** Not sure how it could become necessary though, as the US has to sell something to Japan to pay for cars that actually last, and we grow a ridiculous amount of grain...

On energy, there's bad and good. What we think of as localization is very much a reality, even in larger cities. Where I certainly am out of place biking to the grocery store in East Texas, I think it'd be fair enough to say that folks there would think you a bit off to drive the car to get some onions and meat for the evening's dinner. Stores are closer, smaller, and public transport, walking, or biking is more acceptable; Walmart just hasn't caught on as the grocery store of choice. On the bad side, Japan is about as devoid of natural resources as you can possibly imagine; and now that they've gotten a scare out of their nukes, its going to be doubly challenging.

As to sprawl, and the lack there of. Grab some topo maps. The Japanese were give no option called "sprawl". Nature gave them a few, very small, flat places, and surrounded them with a lot of steep, rocky, difficult terrain. To put it bluntly, it was cheaper to build flat space in a bay, than it was to find some flat space inland for a new airport. Its kinda fun to do a google flyover of non-Tokyo Honshu; every little flat spot is solid, from edge to edge, farm field and housing.

[Shaved Monkey]

More in response to other posts in this thread, feel free to correct me, Tokyoyama if I'm off some...

On food, Japan's food imports are like ours, a luxury because we can afford to buy French this, Chinese that, and Chilean fish too. Japan's agricultural production is capped by government quotas, not physical limits. Its done this way to protect farming in a country that is not socially very conducive to farming. ie, how do you give up the lights and action of Tokyo in order to waddle around in the mud and dirt most of the time. It might be tight, but I suspect Japan could actually meet its caloric requirements internally if it became necessary.

If they changed back to fish and rice and less meat and oil but I don't think there is as much fish left.(and boats are thirsty for oil)

Although Japan's self-sufficiency rate for rice, eggs, whale meat and mandarin oranges exceeds 90 percent, the rate for essential ingredients for Japanese cuisine, including soy beans, is a mere 5 percent, and just 13 percent for daily necessities like cooking oil.
Half of the meat products consumed in Japan is imported.
Japan's food self-sufficiency rate on a calorie basis is the lowest among 12 developed countries cited in an international comparison released by the farm ministry in 2003. Australia topped the list, at 237 percent, followed by other food exporting countries, including Canada at 145 percent, the United States at 128 percent and France at 122 percent. Countries with low figures included Switzerland, at 49 percent, and South Korea, with a 2002 figure of 47 percent.

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20080226i1.html

[thisisit]

I can understand Japan dilema on the long run. In canada we have enough space to lodge them only they should start buying in soon before panic sets in and prices skyrocket for land. I guess we can accomodate 2 millions a year and that would be great for canadian economy making it boom with trumendous inflation of course but we can deal with that as long as they pay the right fee to get in...after all we have lots of oil and why ship it somewhere else if you can get the people to come to canada to use it.

[SeaGypsy]

Yeah Japan is about to be vacated, to Canada, past Alaska and Russia is going to help them do it with a big tunnel, then when Jesus comes he won't have that much water to walk over to visit everyone.