I was happy to see the US economy not crash this year on higher oil prices - stumble (last 2 quarters might as well be recession) but no crash. I think it's not going to get much better because of the oil price but since everyone is treading very carefully, I also think big hiccups aren't likely either. Probably the biggest potential downside would be Republican success in firing half the government.
Oil will start to flow to the GOM from Cushing in the second half, not as much as is needed but enough to get the price closer to Brent. So it boils down to whether the EU can muddle through and will China just continue to cool instead of crash... and of course no GlobalThermoNuclearWar in the Strait!
Overall I think everyone is walking on eggshells, economically speaking (except Achmed) so no big moves - we're in the wedge between non-OECD desire on the downside and OECD Ability to Pay on the upside.
“Quite simply, we are looking at the highest average price since the age of oil began.”
-- Daniel Yergin
The only substitute for cheap energy is expensive energy. -- Me
Make a plan and work it. -- Me again
¡Where the heck are the pitchforks! www.MoveToAmend.org