THE 2012 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

[ObiWan]

How about

110High
80 Low
85 Close

[Cog]

$130 High
$80 Low
$115 Close

[Cog]

*** Amended prediction***
I've decided to amend by prediction and have decided stability in prices will be the rule for the next year. So here it is.

High $105
Low $95
Close $100

[PeakOiler]

I changed your guesses, Cog.

I added the other players to the list and we're up to 25, assuming Pops and pup55 play.

There's still room for more players! Come on readers! Throw your dice!

[Outcast_Searcher]

High $137
Low $87
Close $117

[PeakOiler]

The updated spreadsheet:



I also want to add that I think pup55 should still be the laid back judge of this game. I'm just the scorekeeper. What do you think, pup?

[Pops]

I was happy to see the US economy not crash this year on higher oil prices - stumble (last 2 quarters might as well be recession) but no crash. I think it's not going to get much better because of the oil price but since everyone is treading very carefully, I also think big hiccups aren't likely either. Probably the biggest potential downside would be Republican success in firing half the government.

Oil will start to flow to the GOM from Cushing in the second half, not as much as is needed but enough to get the price closer to Brent. So it boils down to whether the EU can muddle through and will China just continue to cool instead of crash... and of course no GlobalThermoNuclearWar in the Strait!

Overall I think everyone is walking on eggshells, economically speaking (except Achmed) so no big moves - we're in the wedge between non-OECD desire on the downside and OECD Ability to Pay on the upside.

High 115
Low 90
close 110

[PeakOiler]

The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/uncertainty/

includes a graph of WTI and Brent prices through 2015. (Figure 3)

The source of their info was from Intercontinental Exchange, CME Group.

They project a high of about $101 and a low and closing price of about $98 for WTI. That's a very small range! i.e.: A very conservative estimate.

EIA ended at number 22 in the 2011 Oil Price Challenge "What If" page of my workbook.

[AdTheNad]

This is tricky. Is 2012 the year we see economic collapse dropping the price massively, or a new and bigger arab spring sending prices through the roof? If both happen, the order in which they do will make a huge difference in the price. I think we're a lot better at kicking the economic can than the social unrest can, so up we go, followed by right back down.

High $125
Low $80
Close $95

[careinke]

High 134
low 84
close 101

[SteinarN]

I've tried to think.....

I bet on the Iran conflict not to escalate too much. Also I bet on a somewhat controlled rewinding in the Euro zone and status quo in the USA for the next twelve months.

Here is my prediction:
Low: 85
High: 127
Close: 109

[PeakOiler]

There is one week left to make your guesses (or change your guesses) before the deadline.

Here's what I have so far:



Please check the list to ensure I entered your estimates correctly.

The list is sorted by "Overall" (ascending) without any price data. Markets re-open tomorrow.

[lper100km]

My wag predicated on totally unpredictable events

High $153
Low $79
Close $153

[kublikhan]

High: $110
Low: $93
Close: $105

[Cog]

High: $110
Low: $93
Close: $105

Are you trying to beat me out of 12th place again?

[kublikhan]

My highly refined prediction algorithms are top secret.

[pup55]

high 121.83
low 87.12
close 106.97

I am pretty sure Steinar N used my graph. Nah, not quite.

[SteinarN]

high 121.83
low 87.12
close 106.97

I am pretty sure Steinar N used my graph. Nah, not quite.

You waited to long with your prediction

[SeaGypsy]

Nope, we have until the 7th or is the 4th the deadline? Anyway it's inside week 1 I think that's supposed to be ok, if anyone knows it would be Pup55

[PeakOiler]

The deadline is Sunday January 8th.

There are only 30 players this year (so far).

The first scorecard will be posted tomorrow.

Good luck everyone!