It will be interesting next year to see where world oil prices go because like this year there are more moving parts than normal. Last year WTI decoupled from the world market because of too much oil moving into Cushing and not enough capacity going out to the GOM and the world market. The PO.com Gurus were extremely accurate guessing the world price even though WTI went off in it's own direction soon after the first of the year.
Right now, the Seaway pipe is scheduled to reverse flow in the 2nd quarter of '12 and help move some of that extra oil to market. But it won't be able to move more than about 25% of the excess next year and only 2/3 in '13 without help from other pipes. WTI is trying to price that in and now the stocks are building in Cushing in anticipation of the new outlet.
So, add in the economy and there is lots to think about - not to mention the fact that many PO gurus (including me
) have been forecasting 2012-15 as the all-liquids peak.
So, place yer bets on Brent here, same rules as the WTI challenge - don't forget to make a prediction on 2012 WTI too