The Strait of Hormuz Thread (merged)

[eXpat]

No oil through strait if sanctions applied: Iran

TEHRAN - No oil will be permitted to pass through the key oil transit Strait of Hormuz if the West applies sanctions on Iran’s oil exports, Iranian Vice President Ali Rahimi warned on Tuesday.

The threat was reported by the state news agency IRNA as Iran conducted navy wargames near the Strait of Hormuz, at the entrance of the oil-rich Gulf.

“If sanctions are adopted against Iranian oil, not a drop of oil will pass through the Strait of Hormuz,” Rahimi was quoted as saying.

“We have no desire for hostilities or violence... but the West doesn’t want to go back on its plan” to impose sanctions, he said.

“The enemies will only drop their plots when we put them back in their place,” he said.

The threat underlined Iran’s readiness to target the narrow stretch of water along its Gulf coast if it is attacked or economically strangled by Western sanctions.

More than a third of the world’s tanker-borne oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

The United States maintains a navy presence in the Gulf in large part to ensure that passage remains free.

Iran is currently carrying out navy exercises in international waters to the east of the Strait of Hormuz.

Ships and aircraft dropped mines in the sea Tuesday as part of the drill, according to a navy spokesman.

Although Iranian wargames occur periodically, the timing of these is seen as a show of strength as the United States and Europe prepare to impose further sanctions on Iran’s oil and financial sectors.

The last round of sanctions, announced in November, triggered a pro-regime protest in front of the British embassy in Tehran during which Basij militia members overran the mission, ransacking it.

http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle11.asp?xfile=data/middleeast/2011/December/middleeast_December727.xml&section=middleeast

'Iran capable of closing Hormuz Strait'

Amid an ongoing Iranian naval drill, a Russian newspaper says the Islamic Republic is capable of blocking the Strait of Hormuz, the main oil shipping artery in the world.

On Saturday, Iran's Navy launched the massive 10-day “Velayat 90” naval exercise. The drill covers an area stretching from the east of the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Aden.

Iran's decision to close the Strait of Hormuz can fundamentally threaten the prospects of global oil exports, the Russian newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta said on Tuesday.

The paper added that the main objective of Iran's naval forces in holding the Velayat 90 drill was practicing the closing off of the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman, whenever it deem it necessary.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz will increase oil prices. Therefore, the world's major powers will have no option but to intervene in the case to settle it, it pointed out.

The daily added that the [Persian] Gulf Cooperation Council ([P]GCC) countries have vowed to adopt measures to counter Iran.

The paper quoted Iran's Navy Commander Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari upon receiving orders our forces are capable of executing the mission to close Hormuz.

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/217961.html
Disclaimer: Now, this is an ongoing story, is happening in Iran now and those comments are reflected logically in Iranian media first (that´s why i put the links so you can make up your mind yourself). This is a comment to folks that like accurate doom from the BBC. You just will have to wait...

[dolanbaker]

Oil prices are already spiking upwards, Brent has gained one dollar in the past few minutes!

[AgentR11]

Well... Isn't this interesting...

Playbook would call for US Naval forces to go obnoxious and cruise at speed in and out of the Gulf hoping to provoke an offensive action by Iran.
An offensive attack on a US naval vessel provides the prerequisite for the president to order essentially unlimited retaliation.

Either the Iranians are bluffing, or an Iranian port city is about to cease to exist.

I don't know if the American appetite for war could sustain an adventure in Iran; but of all the countries, you couldn't pick one with a better chance of whetting that appetite. Obama could win in 2012 simply by blowing up a bunch of stuff in Iran. Timing does seem a little off, a bit too early, but maybe they can string it out some.

[ObiWan]

I like my doom as accurate as possible. Let's not turn into another LATOC.

Oh now that is funny.

[Newfie]

Well... Isn't this interesting...

Playbook would call for US Naval forces to go obnoxious and cruise at speed in and out of the Gulf hoping to provoke an offensive action by Iran.
An offensive attack on a US naval vessel provides the prerequisite for the president to order essentially unlimited retaliation.

Either the Iranians are bluffing, or an Iranian port city is about to cease to exist.

I don't know if the American appetite for war could sustain an adventure in Iran; but of all the countries, you couldn't pick one with a better chance of whetting that appetite. Obama could win in 2012 simply by blowing up a bunch of stuff in Iran. Timing does seem a little off, a bit too early, but maybe they can string it out some.

Perhaps that is what Iran is thinking; US just pulled out of Iraq, it's the Holiday's, economy is shaky, probably no one in US has any stomach for saber rattling.

Then again, Obama is an academic. He does not sound like a free thinker, so I would not be surprised if he went 'by the play book.'

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Crude-oil futures closed above $101 a barrel Tuesday, as tension in Iran sparked concerns over global supplies and improving U.S. consumer confidence helped buoy prospects for oil demand.

Didn't someone have a map of the carrier group locations on here a bit back?

[Newfie]

COULD NOT RESIST!!!

Don't Panic! Lighten Up!

US nuclear aircraft carrier George Bush crippled by toilet outages

Lewis Page
theregister.co.uk
Thu, 17 Nov 2011 15:55 CST
Sailors drenched as bottles of piss emptied into wind

© unknown
Well goddammit you guys, you shoulda gone before we set off

The US Navy's newest and mightiest nuclear aircraft carrier, the USS George H W Bush*, has been plagued by continual failures in its lavatories, according to reports. Sailors have been forced into increasingly desperate measures to relieve themselves.

The Navy Times, following up initial stories of the problems appearing on blogs, quotes members of the 5,000-strong ship's complement as stating that at times there hasn't been a single working head - as lavs are known at sea - anywhere aboard the entire mighty hundred-thousand-ton warship. Reportedly the Bush is fitted with no less than 423 thrones, but it appears that problems with the suction flushing system can easily knock out large numbers of these at once - or even all of them.

According to the NT's unnamed sources, crewpersons aboard the carrier have struggled to cope with the situation. It seems that desperate sailors must often hunt for long periods to find a functioning head, and if they do discover one there may be a lengthy queue. Some of the unfortunate matelots have apparently resorted to urinating in sinks or showers, or in some cases off the towering sides of the ship (parts of it are as high above the waves as a 20-story building). The latter is a risky practice, however, as it is against regulations: at least one sailor has been put under punishment for doing so.

Other Bush crewmen have reportedly taken to the use of bottles in some private location, following which the containers are smuggled to a suitable point for surreptitious tipping overboard. Unfortunately this "can soil the side of the ship or the hangar deck, aircraft or fellow sailors, depending on how it catches the wind", the NT reports.

According to a statement supplied to the naval newspaper, there are breakdowns in the Bush's heads three or four times a day, though many of these only involve a few units and can be fixed relatively swiftly. Nonetheless the ship's engineering personnel have expended no less than 10,000 man-hours on fixing busted bogs during the carrier's current overseas deployment. It was admitted that one ship-wide breakdown required a 35-hour effort to fix, with the relevant technicians working flat out throughout with no rest.

Naval commanders blamed the problems on inappropriate objects such as clothes or feminine hygiene products being flushed down the heads.

The $6.2bn George Bush, when functioning on top line, is perhaps the most powerful warship in the world. Its air group of more than 90 planes and choppers could defeat many national air forces or navies on its own, and it can steam at a speedboat-like 30+ knots for 20 years without refuelling.

However it must be suspected that the mighty vessel's efficiency is somewhat degraded at the moment.

*41, not 43... Named not after the recent US president but his father, also president back in the early '90s, who saw combat as a carrier aviator in World War II.

http://www.sott.net/articles/show/23809 ... et-outages

[eXpat]

Oil prices are already spiking upwards, Brent has gained one dollar in the past few minutes!

Oil jumps over 2% as Iran threatens supplies

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Oil prices jumped over 2% Tuesday, crossing the $100-barrel-mark after Iran threatened to choke off the flow of oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

The Iranian threat came in response to a recent tightening of Western sanctions against Iran that attempt to limit the amount of oil that country can export.
"If Iran oil is banned, not a single drop of oil will pass through Hormuz Strait," Iran's 1st Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi said Tuesday, according to the Iran State News Agency.

Iran is also currently conducting Naval exercises in and around the Strait.

Over 15 million barrels of oil a day passed through the Strait in 2009, according to the U.S. Energy Information Agency. That's about a sixth of the world's total oil production and a third of all oil traded worldwide. EIA calls it the "world's most important oil chokepoint."

Most of the oil passing through the strait goes to Asia, but because oil is a globally traded commodity, a shortage of oil in any one place impacts oil prices worldwide.
Iran oil targeted by Obama sanctions

Analysts note that with escalating tensions in the Persian Gulf the potential exists for an accident or some other event to lead to a full scale war.

"We are in a situation where there is essentially no communication between the Iranian government and the U.S. government," Trita Parsi, president of the National Iranian American Council, told CNN Monday after reports said Iranian military forces confronted a Western helicopter near the Strait. "It is very worrisome."

Iran has been sparring with the West over its nuclear program for years. Iran says its uranium enriching activities are for peaceful purposes, but many Western governments suspect they are intended to produce a weapon.

Last month the Obama administration upped the pressure on Iran by declaring its central bank a threat, which many analyst took as a prelude to an attempt to cut off Iran's oil exports entirely.

http://money.cnn.com/2011/12/27/markets/oil_iran/?source=cnn_bin

[eXpat]

Interesting, compare this:
Iran threatens to block Strait of Hormuz oil route

Iran says it may close a vital oil-trade route if the West imposes more sanctions over its controversial nuclear programme.

Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi warned that "not a drop of oil will pass through the Strait of Hormuz" if sanctions are widened.

Iran's navy chief Admiral Habibollah Sayari later said closing the strait would be "easy".

The US and its allies believe Iran is trying to develop a nuclear weapon.

Tehran insists its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes.
Oil and finance

Western nations recently unveiled new sanctions against Tehran following a UN report that said Iran had carried out tests related to "development of a nuclear device".

Further measures being considered to target Iran's oil and financial sectors have brought a furious response from Tehran.

"The enemies will only drop their plots when we put them back in their place," Mr Rahimi was quoted as saying on Tuesday by the official news agency Irna.

Adm Sayari later told Iran's Press TV that closing the Strait of Hormuz would be "really easy" for Iran's armed forces "or as Iranians say, easier than drinking a glass of water".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16344102
(Yes Cog, is the BBC... )
With this:
US Fifth Fleet says won't allow disruption in Hormuz

Dec 28 (Reuters) - The U.S. Fifth Fleet said on Wednesday it will not allow any disruption of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, after Iran threatened to stop ships moving through the strategic oil route.

"The free flow of goods and services through the Strait of Hormuz is vital to regional and global prosperity," a spokesperson for the Bahrain-based fleet said in a written response to queries from Reuters about the possibility of Iran trying to close the waterway.

"Anyone who threatens to disrupt freedom of navigation in an international strait is clearly outside the community of nations; any disruption will not be tolerated."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/28/iran-us-hormuz-idUSL6E7NS1HW20111228

And this:
France Urges Iran To Respect Hormuz Shipping Rights

France has called on Iran to respect international law allowing freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz after Tehran threatened to stop oil moving through the strategic shipping lane.

French Foreign Ministry spokesman Bernard Valero said the Strait of Hormuz was an international strait, "therefore all ships, no matter what flag they fly, have the right of transit passage."

On December 27, Iran's first vice president, Mohammad Reza Rahimi, warned that Iran would block the flow of crude through the strait if foreign sanctions were imposed on Tehran's oil exports over its nuclear program.

And the next day, Iran's top naval commander, Habibollah Sayyari, said closing the strait would be "easier than drinking a glass of water" for Iran if Tehran deemed it necessary

About a third of all seaborne oil is estimated to have been shipped through the strait -- which links the Persian Gulf with the open ocean -- in 2009

http://www.rferl.org/content/france_urges_iran_to_respect_shipping/24436311.html

[autonomous]

Iran has been making threats to close the strait of Hormuz for years. Nothing has happened yet. Personally, I would like to see the Iranians shoot themselves in the foot this time but I doubt they are capable of closing the strait even for a few hours.

“We would be committing economical suicide by closing off the Hormuz Strait,” said an Iranian Oil Ministry official who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject. “Oil money is our only income, so we would be spectacularly shooting ourselves in the foot by doing that.”

Oil producers have not sat idle following decades of Iranian threats to shut off the only regional energy transportation corridor. The United Arab Emirates have nearly finished a 2.5 million-barrel-a-day pipeline circumventing the Persian Gulf. U.A.E. officials say the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline Project is a “strategic pass,” circumventing the Hormuz Strait in case Iran closes the chokepoint.

Iranian officials insist that the U.A.E. pipeline and others that are being constructed in the region will not lessen the strategic importance of the Hormuz Strait. But they have raised the issue repeatedly, which analysts say is a sign that they are, in fact, nervous about it.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/despite-threats-iran-unlikely-to-block-oil-shipments-through-strait-of-hormuz/2011/12/28/gIQAVSOSMP_story.html?tid=pm_pop

Oil price falls %2 as Saudis trump Iran threat

NEW YORK (AP) — Oil prices fell on Wednesday, as Saudi Arabia said it will offset any loss of oil from a threatened Iranian blockade of a crucial tanker route in the Middle East. In New York, benchmark crude fell $1.99, or nearly 2 percent, to $99.35 a barrel in midday trading.
A Saudi oil ministry official told The Associated Press that Saudi Arabia and other Gulf producers are ready to provide more oil if Iran tries to block the strait. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the issue. He didn't specify other routes that could be used to transport oil, although they would likely be longer and more expensive for getting crude to the region's customers.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hu81XolyY9c6QlSg1JTl4NeliHLA?docId=5a098b299ddd4cdf97e31329021a79d0

[Pops]

I'd be pretty surprised if OPEC could replace 15Mbd. It took KSA 6 months to work up 10% of that. They say they are pumping 10Mbd which is a record already.

BTW, 15Mbd is about 35% of total world exports, for importing countries that a very important number.


The difference this time is that in order to put pressure on Iran to abandon the nukes the US is about to put sanctions on any country that trades with Iran, which of course will kill Iran's source of income. So either way, their income is toast unless they back down from the nuke program.

Anyone remember "Alas Babylon"? I think the story started with an mideast country messing with a US carrier group.

[vtsnowedin]

I'm not seeing any good possible outcome here with the governments of Iran and the US plus all the neighboring countries.
If the fools close the strait and the US Navy gets a green light to seek and destroy I expect that the Iranian navy and air force would be pretty much extinct within twenty four hours. How long it would take to clear the strait of mines is another matter. Last time we went through this we found that the USN was very deficient in mine sweepers. Have they learned from past mistakes?

[Armageddon]

If US/Israel attack Iran, I guarantee China and Russia won't do jack. It's all about the oil people. People who don't believe in PO have their heads up their asses.

[eXpat]

Iran has been making threats to close the strait of Hormuz for years. Nothing has happened yet. Personally, I would like to see the Iranians shoot themselves in the foot this time but I doubt they are capable of closing the strait even for a few hours.

That´s true, but, Oh the drama!!, it makes the collapse more interesting
Seriously, I see this as a lot of posturing, all sides know that the consecuences are catastrophic, so everybody will back down at the last minute.
Having said that, this year Gaddafi and Mubarak (two respected power struggles and coup attempts veterans) were toppled, so who knows, there´s always the possibility of the unknown factor to play...

[AirlinePilot]

Anyone remember "Alas Babylon"? I think the story started with an mideast country messing with a US carrier group.

Tensions during the cold war led to a lot of "scuffles" some serious others not so. That is a favorite novel of mine. In it, a young exuberant pilot makes a careless mistake and sends an errant missile into the Soviet fortified port of Latakia, Syria. He does this while chasing a Tu-16 badger recon aircraft that had been shadowing the fleet. Its the crucial event which all the others hinge on leading to nuclear exchange.

The resultant escalation leads to all out Nuclear war and all the fun that might entail. Its a good book, and that incident is how things in real life play out. Harmless brinkmanship turns into the brush fire which ignites the entire countryside. lets hope that doesnt happen here.

[careinke]

Anyone remember "Alas Babylon"? I think the story started with an mideast country messing with a US carrier group.

That was my very first doomer book. I loved that book. I even had the same code set up with my family. Time to up my milk delivery, LOL.

[eXpat]

US aircraft carrier 'spotted' in Iran wargames zone

AFP - A US aircraft carrier entered a zone near the Strait of Hormuz being used by the Iranian navy for wargames, an Iranian official said Thursday amid rising tensions over the key oil-transit channel.

"A US aircraft carrier was spotted inside the manoeuvre zone... by a navy reconnaissance aircraft," Commodore Mahmoud Mousavi, the spokesman for the Iranian exercises, told the official IRNA news agency.

The Iranian aircraft took video and photos of the US vessel, he added.

The US aircraft carrier was believed to the USS John C. Stennis, one of the US navy's biggest warships.

US officials announced Wednesday that the ship and its accompanying battle group moved through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow stretch at the entrance to the Gulf that is the world's most important choke point for oil shipments.

http://www.france24.com/en/20111229-us-aircraft-carrier-spotted-iran-wargames-zone

[Ferretlover]

Today's latest action in the Oil Resource War:
US Navy warns Iran: Hormuz disruption 'will not be tolerated'

5th Fleet responds after Iran says closing strait 'will be easier than drinking a glass of water'
... In response, 5th Fleet spokeswoman Lt. Rebecca Rebarich said, "Anyone who threatens to disrupt freedom of navigation in an international strait is clearly outside the community of nations; any disruption will not be tolerated."
The U.S. Navy is "always ready to counter malevolent actions to ensure freedom of navigation," she said. …

MSNBC

Freedom of navigation? A new phrase for access to oil...

[vision-master]

Iran and the Strait of Hormuz

While passing through straits, such as the Strait of Hormuz, that run through territorial waters, ships in transit have more rights. In particular, warships can maintain an appropriate degree of combat-readiness.

Seems reasonable? Unfortunately in the Strait of Hormuz and the waters to the west of it, shipping lanes run close to and in some areas through Iranian territorial waters. Under international maritime law the Iranians are entitled to monitor this traffic but the traffic, including warships, is entitled to unimpeded transit. As the US and Iran view each other with great mistrust, the potential for conflict is high.

Two things complicate the matter further. The first is that the USA has not ratified (formally agreed to abide by) the relevant legislation on international maritime law: the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The second is that, according to UNCLOS, if there are islands lying off a nation’s coast then the 12 miles extend from the outermost island.

The area of sea around the Strait of Hormuz contains several islands, for many of which the ownership is claimed by both Iran and the United Arab Emirates, a pro-western country. Whoever owns the islands will own the territorial waters around them, according to international maritime law as it is usually interpreted.

http://strait-of-hormuz.com/content/view/3/4/

[Newfie]

And........to quote something else more elemental...........'Possession is 90% of the law."

And since the US possess the major naval power in the region they get to do what they want, until someone knocks the chip off their shoulder.

Who knows? I don't think international maritime law will play a significant role in the decision making.

Could be wrong.

[dolanbaker]

Who knows? I don't think international maritime law will play a significant role in the decision making.

Could be wrong.

Only the losers end up in court, the winners select the judge!