THE International Energy Agency (IEA) Thread pt 3 (merged)

[babystrangeloop]

time is to check your Lithium

Don't you mean Invega?
_________________________________________________________________
It Might Happen Here.

[kiwichick]

and your titanium

[vtsnowedin]

Would $150 dollar oil be the EOTWAWKI? I think not. Sure your going to have to kick junior out of the basement, take his Xbox away and tell him to "get a haircut and get a real job ."
Really $150 is just the beginning and you really don't need to sweat it until the ATMs stop working and the price of oil that day could be anything from $40 to $500.

[Graeme]

New IEA Report on Renewable Energy Costs & Policy (IEA Nails It!)

The International Energy Agency (IEA), traditionally a very fossil-fuel-friendly international agency, reported today that renewable energy is becoming cost-competitive (and should receive subsidies to account for its environmental, energy security, and health benefits).

While I’m happy to see the IEA make this announcement (and there are tons of great points made in the report that I highlight below), I can’t help but point out a couple things….

If you look at the full costs of each energy source (that means adding in health costs, energy security costs, and environmental costs) solar, wind, and geothermal are already equal to or cheaper than fossil fuels. What’s the difference between a dollar you spend at the hospital and a dollar you spend on your electricity? Nothing much, except who’s receiving that dollar and what you are going through (i.e. what health predicament you have or don’t have). IEA gets this, but could have done a better job of spelling that out.

Additionally, not even taking those factors into account, if you look at the rising costs of coal and nuclear, the falling costs of solar, and the time it takes to put up a coal or nuclear power plant, solar is already cheaper by many insider estimates.

cleantechnica

[Graeme]

IEA warns high oil prices threaten global economy

High oil prices threaten to worsen a global economic slowdown and crude producers should consider boosting output, the chief economist for the International Energy Agency said Wednesday.

"The current high oil prices have the potential to strangle the economic recovery in many countries," Fatih Birol said in a speech Wednesday in Singapore. "I hope that high oil prices don't slow down Chinese economic growth and the negative effect that would have on the global recovery."

Crude has jumped to $100 a barrel from $75 in October amid signs the U.S. economy will likely avoid a recession. Most economists expect global economic growth to slow next year as Europe's debt crisis threatens to drag the continent into recession.

Birol suggested crude producers should boost output amid growing demand in developing countries and falling inventories in wealthy nations.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is meeting later Wednesday in Vienna to decide whether to change the cartel's output quotas.

AP

[Pops]

I already posted this in the 2012 challenge thread but here it is again
this is global GDP adjusted for seasonality by Staniford...


EarlyWarning

And my other one



I moshed 'em together and you know what we get...

[meemoe_uk]

http://omrpublic.iea.org/currentissues/full.pdf
page 59

88.46mbpd average for 2011
That beats the previous record set by 2010 by 0.99mbpd.

biofuels were static this year. OPEC NGLs increased by 0.45mppd.

Cornucopian predictions have been shown to be correct again, continuing over a hundred years of correct predictions.
Peak oil is now predictions have been falsified again, continuing over a hundred years of failed predictions. ( when included with their predecessors the 'running outers' predictions. )

The flood of oil from the 2001 middle east oil bonanza is expected to increase for a few year to come, and keep the world economy supplied with plenty of oil for at least another 20 years. No oil shortage in sight.

Last years thread

Another year, another fail for the 'peakoil is now' gang.

But, this doesn't mean anything to a peaker.
Don't wobble in your beliefs about panic and hype about an imminent oil shortage crisis.
Let JD explain
Now you can have all the fun of hype and scare you had last year ( and year before that, and the decades before that..etc) all over again.

Because now.....
PEAK OIL WAS IN 2010!!!!
And this isn't like all the other times we think peak has happened. This time we really know for sure. There is absolutely no way conventional supply can top 2010. And this is time, it's not like dozens of other years that there's been absolutely no way that supply can go up. Oh no, THIS...IS...IT!!!

Now peak oil was in 2011, right?
So commence same unfouned hype as last year, and see you all for same falsification same time next year.

[dsula]

Don't you know that doom is predictd for no later than end of 2012. But this time for real.

[Cloud9]

When oil reaches $200 a barrel we will set another all time record. We are not running out of oil. Haven't you heard? We are now steam cleaning sand for oil.

[GoIllini]

When oil reaches $200 a barrel we will set another all time record. We are not running out of oil. Haven't you heard? We are now steam cleaning sand for oil.

And? That means more supply and an economy better able to pay for advanced technology.

Energy supply is always something to watch out for. But we're swimming in natural gas, and might be soon swimming in oil. They are shutting DOWN natgas production to cope with the glut.

[ian807]

1) Oil is limited.
2) When you pump it faster, you use it up sooner.

Having a problem putting this together, are we?

For a look at how long it takes us to use up the oil that's energetically and economically profitable, I suggest you start reading the book referenced on this site: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cubic_mile_of_oil.

It has numbers. Do your best.

[TheAntiDoomer]

I am soooo corny today.

[dorlomin]

Cornucopian predictions have been shown to be correct again, continuing over a hundred years of correct predictions.

Bull.

Yet this fear is not borne out by the fundamentals of supply. Our new, field-by-field analysis of production capacity, led by my colleagues Peter Jackson and Robert Esser, is quite at odds with the current view and leads to a strikingly different conclusion: There will be a large, unprecedented buildup of oil supply in the next few years. Between 2004 and 2010, capacity to produce oil (not actual production) could grow by 16 million barrels a day -- from 85 million barrels per day to 101 million barrels a day -- a 20 percent increase. Such growth over the next few years would relieve the current pressure on supply and demand.

Link


Peak oil is about conventional oil. You cannot use geology to predict how many hectares of land are going to be given over to biofuels of one kind or another.

The majority of oil producing countries have peaked.

We have been on a pretty level amount of conventional oil being produced for near 7 years with slim pickings on projects coming on stream over the next couple of years.

There may have been some predictions of peak oil that have proven premature but to try leverage that into 'cornucopians have never been wrong' is rather wrong headed.

Peak oil is now predictions have been falsified again, continuing over a hundred years of failed predictions.

You mean the US is producing its all time highest bpd of conventional oil? No, then Hubbard got that one well and truly in the bulls eye. And the UK, Russia, Norway, Mexico, Libya, Indonesia etc etc. All past peak.

[dorlomin]

I am soooo corny today.

As you are every post.

1. trite or banal

Link

[pstarr]

What the IEA numbers fail to show is the declining EROEI of the new "reserves" (such as they are.) When the energy required to hydrogenate the the gunk and grow the liquor is factored into the net energy available to drive around the mall parking lot, we have certainly ended up with a number quantitatively much closer to just around 60mbpd give or take some.

[ian807]

In 1997, oil was under $20 a barrel (http://www.wtrg.com/oil_graphs/oilprice1947.gif).

In 2012, today, Brent crude is at $111 while regular crude is at $95 (http://oilprice.com/).

I guess that must be because there's just so much oil around. 'Cause that's what happens when a commodity is oversupplied. Prices increase. Right? Oh wait...

[Satori]

why there is so much oil around here
that the gas stations are actually paying people to take it off their hands

[meemoe_uk]

1) Oil is limited.
2) When you pump it faster, you use it up sooner.

Having a problem putting this together, are we?

No.
But one thing that peak_oil_is_now hypers, such as yourself have problems understanding is that cornies accept peak oil will happen some day because, for at least one reason, crude oil is effectively finite.
Yep.
We've been telling you this year on year, every year.
But you'll never grasp it.

What the IEA numbers fail to show is the declining EROEI of the new "reserves" (such as they are.) When the energy required to hydrogenate the the gunk and grow the liquor is factored into the net energy available to drive around the mall parking lot, we have certainly ended up with a number quantitatively much closer to just around 60mbpd give or take some.

Same protesting comments rehashed every year when the numbers come out.
Same mistakes.
EROEI doesn't necessarily go down from the starting date of oil use. It's the complexity and technology base of tools necessary for oil prospecting and extraction that goes up.
e.g. there might be 1 barrel of difficult oil available with bucket technology, but 1 million barrels of easy oil available with pick axe tech. The increasing difficulty lies in forging the new tech, NOT necessarily the oil extraction.
Now what has better ERORI, the hard bucket oil, where a man might spend some energy making a bucket, but then has to forage around for weeks mopping up swamps and filtering the swamp water for 1 bucketful of oil, or the man who spends more initial energy forging an axe, whacks the axe into a rock and sits back while a million barrels worth spurt out to form a new oil lake?
The same thing could be going on by analogy with todays advances in tech.
Whose to say?...

( by the way, this basic concept, typically learnt by engineer students in their foundation year, is out the reach of 98% of doomers. If you understand and apply it to your outlook on energy , then you're head and shoulders above the rest of 'em )

...
Certainly not the peak_oil_is_now hype gang.

2ndly, the ERORI for oil is still so extremely high, that _IF_ the ERORI is currently going down, it's at an insignifcant rate and amount. When it becomes cheaper to pay to pull your 1 ton car with 44 horses, or 280 men than to use a 33kW combustion engine and some petrol, you'll know the ERORI of oil is losing its economic edge. Currently, oil is so astronomically excellent for ERORI, any comparison with muscle power (or wind power) is a joke.

[ceasley7]

Score one for the cornucopians. Curious, has anybody reviewed the BP 2030 outlook. It seems very probable. Puts off the Peak for a while. It does state that OCED demand has topped and will regress 5 mbd due to efficiencies in cars and so what. I rather be in the optimist camp anyway.

[dsula]

So that's it. We've got decades more, some reduced standard of living, slowly transitioning us into new territory. And I always thought there's going to be fast approaching mayhem and famine. I'm disappointed.