Renewables/Biofuels (merged)

[tubaplayer]

I've been waiting for the transition to NG vehicles for a long time, but it's just not happening, much to my demise of thinking and I'm sure Boone Pickens. I couldn't buy a NG vehicle yet, bc there would be nowhere to fill it up. How many NG cars in Israel right now? That's a serious question. They have no oil, import it all, and are surrounded by hostile neighbors. So, it would seem they would have a sense of urgency to go all out on NG vehicles with these new discoveries. So, practically, where are they on the move to NG vehicles in their military and civilian economy?

I've had this discussion here for years and am continually reminded of Montequest's oft-repeated assertion that "solutions in isolation" are don't really amount to much. While it is true that NG-vehicle conversion/production is pretty trivial, delivering NG to those vehicles is another entirely different challenge. One that has never been undertaken before. (To date the few NG filling stations in urban centers are just adjuncts to existing hot water/heating/electrical generation network.)

To make a change over to NG, and replace liquid petroleum, is prohibitively expensive because it requires a complete distribution and delivery system to places where NG has never gone. Farms, military installations, interstate highways, mines, timberlands would all have to be connected or the entire system will not be used.

No idea how old you are. I agree with most of your post, but absolutely wrong on "One that has never been undertaken before" Way back in the 1970s where I lived in an unlikely spot in the UK and North Sea gas was starting to be piped ashore a small village gas station bought and installed a natural gas filling pump in the hopes of cornering the local market for autos converted to run on natural gas. Forty-odd years ago. I reckon they are still waiting.

So, yes, you are right - not going to happen. All the food to your supermarket gets delivered using diesel. Some of the folks commuting may use diesel - most use petrol (UK) gasoline (US) or benzine (where I live).

[Graeme]

3 Good Ways to Go Solar Today

With the cost of solar continuously declining and a huge solar power explosion (i.e. a ton more solar getting installed around the world these days), you might be wondering what your options are for going solar. To be honest, you have more way to go solar than ever. Let’s run down some of your top options.

1. Group Discounts on Solar: At least one US company, One Block Off the Grid, and one UK company, Sunny Britain, have developed Groupon-like solar buying programs. Basically, people living in qualified locations have the option to go solar for less than they would normally because the solar company (One Block Off the Grid or Sunny Britain) has organized a group discount in their area.

2. Solar Leasing: If you have the capability and willingness to invest in a solar power system, you are likely to get your money back in a few years or so from the savings on your electricity bills. After that, you’re actually making money on your investment. However, the initial upfront costs or loan options for a solar system are not possible or practical for everyone. Now, though, even if you can’t or don’t want to buy a system, you can lease a solar power system and still save enough money on your electricity bills that you will be making money before your lease is up. Of course, the leasing company will take a cut, reducing the money you could have made by going on your own, but it’s still a much better option than paying more for dirty electricity!

3. Homemade Solar Panels: If you’re the DIY type, you can also try your hand at homemade solar panels. That may actually be your cheapest option, but it comes with more potential obstacles and downsides, so make sure to read up on the matter a lot before getting your hands dirty.

Of course, there are tremendous government rebates for going solar, so look into which rebates apply to you and make sure to get some of your tax dollars back for going green.

Going solar is almost a no-brainer these days. It is good for your health, saves you money, and helps to prevent global warming, saving the lives of humans, endangered plants, and endangered animals around the world. Wind power and solar power are blowing up these days for a reason. Do your part and join in the awesome benefits!

cleantechnica

[Graeme]

This post is without doubt the most important news I've seen for some time. Solar grid parity with ff will mark the beginning of the end of the ff age. The implications of this change will be enormous in terms of the survival of the global economy, the environment and indeed ourselves.

Solar cheaper than fossil fuels in a decade, says Steven Chu

Solar power will be cheaper than fossil fuels at some point between the end of this decade and 2016, said U.S. Secretary of Energy Steven Chu at the Washington Post's Smart Energy conference this morning. (For more on what Chu said, check out Guardian reporter Suzanne Goldenberg's tweets from the conference.)

The date at which solar power reaches "grid parity" with fossil fuels without subsidy has been the subject of heated debate for decades. (If you want the details, just yesterday I had a long discussion with Jesse Jenkins of the Breakthrough Institute about whether or not we're currently on the right path to make renewables competitive with dirtier sources of energy.)

Needless to say, solar at the same price as fossil fuels has the potential to completely transform the global energy market by making the switch to solar a no-brainer. You might even call it the Holy Grail of renewable energy technologies.

Chu could be wrong, but it's hard to imagine anyone in the U.S. better positioned to know the trajectory of the cost of solar power. Under Chu, the Department of Energy launched the ARPA-E project to fund advanced energy research, and some of its projects already have the potential to make a huge difference in the cost of solar panels.

grist

[vision-master]

You ppl need to get out more - LENR is real. No need for solar power within 10 years.

[Pops]

Solar power will be cheaper than fossil fuels at some point between the end of this decade and 2016,

The original story was amended to "between the end of this decade and 2026".

Still, I have no doubt PV will be cheaper than FF earlier than that.

I mean, we have a "glut" of $100 oil at the moment, before long we'll have a flood of $150 oil-ish stuff - if PV can manage to just stand still, parity is inevitable.

[Timo]

This might explain why the Koch brothers are desperately spending millions of dollars to gain control of this government. If solar becomes the new MO, they lose everything. Poor, poor billionaires. It must be very hard trying to preserve a dying dynasty.

[AdTheNad]

Solar cheaper than fossil fuels in a decade, says Steven Chu

And just think, if you had to pay for all the externalities associated with fossil fuels, plus hidden subsidies it would happen even faster.

[shortonoil]

The main problem with solar is that we haven't seen (as yet) any real numbers that make it look appealing. Solar will have to have a long term ERoEI greater than 7.5:1 just to exist without subsidies; otherwise it is just another Wishing Well of hype. Right now it has to have an ERoEI greater than 9.6:1 just to compete with oil, and it obviously doesn't! Since most of the (so called) analysts' I have read don't seem to be able to tell the difference between a BTU of energy and a BTU of work, I not holding much hope for this technology's future.

[Keith_McClary]

You ppl need to get out more - LENR is real. No need for solar power within 10 years.

Someone should tell Steven Chu that. Oh, and by the way, Steve, we won't have much need for a Secretary of Energy.

Peakers would say: "Fossil fuels more expensive than solar in a decade."

[Loki]

I mean, we have a "glut" of $100 oil at the moment, before long we'll have a flood of $150 oil-ish stuff - if PV can manage to just stand still, parity is inevitable.

Good point.

I also wonder about cost of materials with a massive, global solar ramp up. From the Oil Drum's Nate Hagens:

A particular concern is whether there would be material shortages with a very large and rapid growth. For example, gallium arsenide is currently more or less the material of choice for a doping material to apply to silicon. Curiously, or not so curiously, this material has the same absorbance spectra as chlorophyll. A glance at the periodic table shows this element to be under aluminum, and the principal source is aluminum mining and purification. But if the industry were to increase by a factor of ten other sources would have to be utilized, and, presumably, its cost would increase dramatically. Likewise if we were to attempt to replace liquid fuels with electricity an enormously greater amount of copper would be needed. The price of copper is already escalating sharply under pressure from the construction industry of China and it is not clear what a greatly increased demand might do. Similar issues would apply to the many other elements that might be needed to obtain higher efficiencies in the industry.

Currently, Cadmium-telluride (CdTe) and Copper-indium-gallium-diselenide (CIGS) PV modules are thought to have the highest potential for low cost electricity. However, beyond the year 2020, each is expected to suffer material restraints (Andersson 2001). Indium and Tellurium are recovered as byproducts of copper and zinc respectively, of which we may run out of this century. Ultimately, PV production may be constrained by available stock of materials and/or by the rate at which materials are recovered; and possibly by competition for metals for other end uses.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3910

[kublikhan]

I also wonder about cost of materials with a massive, global solar ramp up. From the Oil Drum's Nate Hagens:

We touched on this point in Graeme's other solar thread. Perhaps we should consolidate these 2 threads?

Anyway, that article is from 2008. The solar materials market has changed dramatically since then. Nate's fears did not materialize. The chemical manufacturers did embark on a massive, global ramp up of solar cell materials. Far from causing prices to skyrocket, prices have plummeted. Polysilicon went from $500 per kilogram in 2008 to $50 today. There is a huge glut and excess capacity in solar materials presently. It is driving down prices across the board. Prices have dropped so low for polysilicon and traditional solar cells that many companies engaged in alternative solar PV technologies, such as thin cell, have gone bankrupt. See Solyndra or Evergreen Solar for details on that.

[Loki]

Anyway, that article is from 2008. The solar materials market has changed dramatically since then. Nate's fears did not materialize. The chemical manufacturers did embark on a massive, global ramp up of solar cell materials. Far from causing prices to skyrocket, prices have plummeted.

I'll admit I know next to nothing about the availability of these rather exotic materials or the details of the global solar power market. I'd be happy to read up on it if you know of a good source.

I've been planning a very small off-grid solar power system for a year or so, and have definitely noticed a decline in panel prices in that time.

I saved Wholesale Solar's price list on Oct 30, 2010, and used that list to compare prices today. The Kyocera KD235GX panel is now $470, down from >$600 a year ago. Sharps' NU-U240 panel is now $445, down from $675. The SolarWorld SW245 is only down to $640 vs. $685 a year ago.

Now I'm not sure if I should wait another year, or buy now.

There's also shipping costs to consider. Affordable Solar quoted me a $165 shipping rate for a 235 W panel today. I can't imagine that will go much lower in the years to come.

[kublikhan]

I'll admit I know next to nothing about the availability of these rather exotic materials or the details of the global solar power market. I'd be happy to read up on it if you know of a good source.

A good primer on what goes into a solar cell is the wiki article: Materials. From there, there are links to articles on the various individual materials, such as Polysilicon

Back in 2008, the price of polysilicon(used in traditional Crystalline silicon solar cells) was skyrocketing, so there was much interest and activity in reducing the amount of silicon in solar cells by going the thin cell route using technologies such as CdTe, CIGS, or A-Si. I am not an expert on silicon doping, but I think the more rare materials Nate was concerned about like gallium and telluride are only used in thin film solar cells and are not used in Crystalline silicon solar cells. With polysilicon's rapid fall in price, the outlook of Crystalline silicon solar cells is much brighter today than it was back in 2008 while thin film firms are either going bankrupt or struggling:

First Solar, the blue-chip name in solar energy, conceded that the strategy that it and other solar companies have been following is broken and that deep changes must be made to salvage the promise of renewable energy. Two weeks ago the company sacked its chief executive of two years and reported disappointing results. Thursday evening, it offered a dispiriting financial outlook.

First Solar is grappling with sharply declining prices for solar panels as subsidies for alternative energy dry up around the world. Chairman Michael Ahearn told analysts on Thursday evening that the company had essentially become complacent, overly accustomed to milking government subsidies for renewable energy.

As things stand, First Solar, with the industry, is headed for more pain. Citigroup's Timothy Arcuri remarked on Friday that unsold inventory of solar panels will continue to be a "big issue" for some time to come. The first half of 2012 "will be very challenging" for First Solar as it runs its factories at a lower clip, thereby reducing its profitability.

The good news is, this had to happen. Falling prices will bring solar panels closer to being price-competitive with fossil fuels, the Holy Grail known as "grid parity."

It will also put some companies out of business if they don't have the balance sheets to stay afloat. That will, in turn, reduce competition and allow prices to stabilize.

The Floggings of First Solar and RIM

If you wanted to read more details about the rapid price fall of silicon, this is a good article on it:
China’s “Silicon Bubble” Deflates at Early Stage

If you are interested in my quick and dirty observations of the materials situation:
In 2008, silicon's shortage and skyrocketing price were the foremost concern of the solar industry and prompted much interest in both thin film technology and increasing silicon production.
By 2011, overproduction of silicon had driven prices of silicon so low that thin film producers are being driven out of business and even crystalline cell producers are struggling with low profitability. Look to see more consolidation and/or bankruptcies going forward.

Materials are only one chapter of the story though. The worldwide recession is hurting the business too. Then there is the subsidy issue. Many solar companies were surviving by sucking on the government tit of subsidies. Now that we are seeing many of those subsides cut back, profit margins are being squeezed, leading to more bankruptcies/consolidation.

Still, I am confident these issues will work themselves out in time and the future of solar remains bright in the long run.

[smiley]

Now I'm not sure if I should wait another year, or buy now.

Well if your considering to buy it would be good to inform yourself well, and not simply go for the cheapest option. If your goal is to save money then I would suggest to put your money in a savings account anyway (solar is a pretty bad investment), but if your goal is to be energy independent and to limit your environemntal exposure it il still worthwille to do a lot of research to save yourself from a big disappointment.

Solar vendors are usually quite optimistic in their calculations so it is good to seek independent verification.There is a couple things you need to pay attention to:

- Actual yield. The number quoted for solar cells is the peak power. This will not be what you will be getting. Average powers ar much lower so you need to have a good calculation for your location, and the inclination and orientation of your solar cells.

Code: Select all

Table 2.  Power output of a rooftop solar PV installation in London
Peak power, or “installed capacity”:   5700 W
Annual average power:   621 W
Monthly average power for July:   1129 W
Monthly average power for December:   125 W

http://lightbucket.wordpress.com/2008/0 ... er-output/

- Cleaning. Dirt on the panels can drop the efficiency by as much as 50% in a couple of months. If you install solar panels you should factor in a cleaning interval and incorporate losses from dirt in your efficiency calculations. Also you want to have the panels inclined to have som cleaning effect from rain.
https://docs.google.com/present/view?id ... _0gtk9bsgc

- Shadowing. Since most solar arrays are set up in strings, shadowing of one cell will drop the efficiency of the whole array. Moreover this can cause backcurrents and hotspots which can kill the panel altogether. If your in a location with treas and run the risk of a leaf falling on the panels it is wise to invest in more expensive panels with bypass diode protection or microinvertors.

- Lifetime. Your system needs to function for at least 15 years in order to get your money back. For current thin film cells it is doubtfull whether they will survive this time, so I would stay away from those. Silicon cells have shown reliable lifetimes of 30 years or more, but in this case the limiting factors are mainly the electronics and the electronic connections. Cheaper cells are often offered with inferior electronic components, so you might end up not breaking even because of invertor failures etc.

By the way, if you want good and cheap panels you may want to look around for second hand panels. Most solar farms replace their panels after a few years and offert the used panels for sale. These are usually good panels with still a lot of life in them, and you can buy them dirt cheap.
http://www.otherpower.com/otherpower_solar_used.html

[Graeme]

Saudi Arabia poised to become solar powerhouse

The United States may be known as the Saudi Arabia of coal thanks to its large deposits. But under an expected investment push, Saudi Arabia could soon become the Saudi Arabia of solar power.

Early next year the oil rich kingdom is expected to announce a plan to get up to 10% of its electricity from the sun by 2020 -- a more aggressive national policy than what's in place in the United States.

The reason is mostly economic. The Saudis currently generate over 50% of their electricity by burning oil, which can consume up to an eighth of the country's total oil output.

That made sense when oil was $10 a barrel. But at $100 a barrel it makes more sense for the Saudis to install solar panels and sell their oil on world markets.

Moreover, their electricity consumption is set to double by 2020.

cnn

[Graeme]

Secretary Chu: We Can Win Clean Energy Battle

Seven trillion dollars are at stake in the global battle to win market share in renewable energy and the United States can win that battle, U.S. Secretary of Energy Steven Chu said during stops in Colorado.

Chu toured a GE-PrimeStar Solar plant in Arvada, Colo., on Nov. 18 that he said was a stellar example of American invention leading to American jobs. Later the same day, he toured the U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in Golden, Colo. and spoke to a gathering of NREL and DOE employees.

At PrimeStar, Chu noted that the company adopted technology developed at NREL to build thin film solar panels made of cadmium and telluride. The technology can be more efficient than silicon solar cells and cost much less — because it uses 99 percent less chemical material than more conventional cells.

GE PrimeStar recently announced plans to build a large manufacturing plant in Aurora, Colo., which will employ about 400 people and build enough modules to power 80,000 homes.

Chu said that if the United States balks at helping private firms invest in the most exciting new renewable energy ideas, there are 50 other nations that will continue to do so within their borders.

In China, Canada, Australia, India, and most of the countries of western Europe, governments are making direct investments or guaranteeing financing — because they know the stakes are so high.

energycentral

[dorlomin]

They burn 10% of their oil for domestic power? What. Thats nearly 1 million barrels a day or near enough $100 000 000.
Or $35 billion a year burning oil instead of buy coal and selling the oil.

[dissident]

When can I buy these new fangled thin film panels? How long will they last and how much will they cost?

These politician photo ops are old and boring.

[Plantagenet]

This is the kind of speech Chu gives to justify his stupid decision to override government financial regulations to channel another half billion dollars to Obama's political cronies so they can rip off the taxpayer again.

Chu should be fired immediately for political corruption and incompetence.

[pstarr]

This is the kind of speech Chu gives to justify his stupid decision to override government financial regulations to channel another half billion dollars to Obama's political cronies so they can rip off the taxpayer again.

Chu should be fired immediately for political corruption and incompetence.

A faux Republican "patriot" like yourself should applaud a little rule-bending to ensure that the USA remains a player on the changing energy scene. Another Democrat President ran into the same knee-jerk right-wing pressure almost 40 years ago. Reagan killed the program then.

We might have created a real sustainable, solar economy and changed the world. You still on the wrong side?