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Off topic split:Writer doing story on Peak Oil

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Off topic split:Writer doing story on Peak Oil

Unread postby Schadenfreude » Sat 19 Nov 2011, 19:16:47

U.S. oil and gas yield will beat peak by 2020, research projects

The United States is on track to beat its previous peak production of oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids, according to an analysis by consulting firm PFC Energy.

The analysis projects that the United States will become the world’s top producer of those fossil fuels by 2020. Though Saudi Arabia will continue surpass it in oil production, the United States’ booming shale gas business will make it the global leader in well-borne fossil fuels, according to PFC Energy.

Domestic energy production has declined since the early 1970s, when the United States peaked at about 22 million barrels of oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids per year, the analysis noted. About 45 percent of the product was oil and 43 percent was natural gas.

The United States is poised to hit 22 million barrels of oil equivalent again in 2020. But natural gas will make up the majority of energy produced – about 58 percent, according to PFC Energy.

In September Bentek Energy predicted that combined Canadian and U.S. oil production would reach an all-time high by 2016.

The analysis attributes most of the growth in natural gas to shale formations in Texas, Louisiana and the Northeast. Technology improvements, including hydraulic fracturing, have allowed energy companies to access oil and natural gas from shale rock that was once too complex to access economically.

Shale will also increase production of oil and natural gas liquids, the report noted. PFC Energy projects that by 2020, more U.S.-produced oil and liquids will come from shale than from the Gulf of Mexico.
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Re: Off topic split:Writer doing story on Peak Oil

Unread postby ian807 » Sun 20 Nov 2011, 10:04:55

Schadenfreude wrote:U.S. oil and gas yield will beat peak by 2020, research projects

The United States is on track to beat its previous peak production of oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids, according to an analysis by consulting firm PFC Energy.

The analysis projects that the United States will become the world’s top producer of those fossil fuels by 2020. Though Saudi Arabia will continue surpass it in oil production, the United States’ booming shale gas business will make it the global leader in well-borne fossil fuels, according to PFC Energy.

Domestic energy production has declined since the early 1970s, when the United States peaked at about 22 million barrels of oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids per year, the analysis noted. About 45 percent of the product was oil and 43 percent was natural gas.

The United States is poised to hit 22 million barrels of oil equivalent again in 2020. But natural gas will make up the majority of energy produced – about 58 percent, according to PFC Energy.

In September Bentek Energy predicted that combined Canadian and U.S. oil production would reach an all-time high by 2016.

The analysis attributes most of the growth in natural gas to shale formations in Texas, Louisiana and the Northeast. Technology improvements, including hydraulic fracturing, have allowed energy companies to access oil and natural gas from shale rock that was once too complex to access economically.

Shale will also increase production of oil and natural gas liquids, the report noted. PFC Energy projects that by 2020, more U.S.-produced oil and liquids will come from shale than from the Gulf of Mexico.

Not much new here. Pump oil out faster; run out sooner. Start substituting NG. Deplete those fields sooner. We might pump out 22 mpd for a while. That wouldn't quite cover our daily consumption, but it would be close. After the inevitable decline, the USA would be totally dependent on foreign sources of fossil fuel.

The article is typically innumerate. Only quantities of oil and NG are mentioned. There's no discussion of marginal production costs, time from wellhead to tank, depletion rates, technical recovery rates vs. actual recovery rates, or EREOI, without which, it's hard to have a rational conversation about hydrocarbon depletion.
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Re: Off topic split:Writer doing story on Peak Oil

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Sun 20 Nov 2011, 13:13:17

It would be real interesting to see a bar graph of how much of that oil will cost $100 a barrel, $200, $300, $400.

Supplies will increase somewhat as prices climb. That's just supply and demand.

That oil will also be more dangerous and polluting, like Deepwater Horizon.

But then there is price sensitivity and elasticity. How much of the average persons income will they spend on oil? Of course, higher prices will create demand for alternatives to any product, but the oil companies directly control many members of congress. They will do everything possible to prevent the development of alternatives.

Unfortunately there are probably a lot of voters who are or could be convinced it's only the dirty hippies who prevent us from having 35 cent gasoline.
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