US economic recovery is complete. pt 2

[OilFinder2]

Hey dimwit, I already told you: Military personnel aren't counted in employment statistics. Get it? Duh. You're advocating extending the wars just for the sake of avoiding some "layoffs." Pretty sick.

In the cast of the 50K Army cuts, no they are not actually job cuts because they technically aren't even regular jobs.

I see ... I understand.

A job with the Army isn't technically a job ...

Yes, it's much clearer now ... Thank you for the clarification.

It's not a job ... it's an ADVENTURE ...

Soldiers don't get paid with money ... they get paid with adventure tokens ...

[pstarr]

In the cast of the 50K Army cuts, no they are not actually job cuts because . . .

BofA is unfortunate but . . .

Dude. That is quite pathetic, but nothing new.

Let me once again remind you of your essential position;
US economic recovery is complete. pt nth

[OilFinder2]

Let me once again remind you of your essential position;
US economic recovery is complete. pt nth

You're right p-the-starr, because the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are unwinding and 50K troops are being let go, that must mean the economy has not recovered.

Now, I think it's time to put aside the bickering for a moment, and given the news just out I think a memorial is in order.

[pstarr]

God bless Steve Jobs, Apple, and the New-Economy. Now back to the discussion.

Those 50K who return tomorrow will be nothing like 1960's Vietnam Peace and Love-- --type Vets. They came back to 5% unemployment. Our guys today are are a lot meaner, deadlier and will be coming home to a 1860's-style post-Civil War Depression. A wealthy guy like you has good reason to be scared. Better put some designer bars on your estates windows.

[OilFinder2]

I'm hardly wealthy!

As for those returning vets, I'm most definitely NOT worried about them. Why? Because, as Rockman and others on TOD will tell you, there's a great disproportion of ex-military guys working in the US's oil fields, and those oil fields are humming!

Maybe they can work here, doing stuff like this.

Ideal work for an Army dude!

EDIT: Check this out - they've even got a program called Troops 2 Roughnecks specifically designed to train ex-military for oil/gas field jobs:
Troops 2 Roughnecks

[pstarr]

Are you referring to $8 bakken in a $4 NG world? Or shale oils that have no natural drive mechanism? Damn I wouldn't want to be sent there. A smart vet would choose reenlistment in Iraq.

[OilFinder2]

Are you referring to $8 bakken in a $4 NG world?

How many times do you have to make this idiotic comment about natural gas in the Bakken? Nobody gives a shit about the natural gas in the Bakken. They can practically give it away for free since they make so much money off the oil.

Or shale oils that have no natural drive mechanism? Damn I wouldn't want to be sent there. A smart vet would choose reenlistment in Iraq.

From one of the comments in the Troops2Roughnecks video:

I never spent a day in college and I earned over 600k in 5 years on rigs. So, like the other guy said, enjoy sucking your boss's cock so you can afford that new Honda.

If you'd rather get re-enlisted in Iraq than make over 100K a year working on a rig in Texas or North Dakota, you're in bad need of brain surgery.

I saw a video a few hours ago on the jobs boom in the Bakken where a truck driver hauling nothing but water was making six figures. And another video says the McDonalds workers in Williston are making $14/hour.

But yeah, have fun and get blown to bits by an Iraqi Al Qaida suicide bomber if that's what turns you on.

[OilFinder2]

Well well, look what we have here. When jobless claims dropped 30K+ last week and a Labor Department spokesman said there might be an issue with the seasonal adjustment factors, I looked at the *not* seasonally adjusted number, noticed it was at a multi-year low and thought, "We shall see." Now today it rose by less than expected and is back to where it was in late July and early April. The jury is still out if the ECRI is going to be correct in their "We're entering a recession" claim, but based on initial claims so far their call isn't looking too good.

*** Joblesss claims rise 6K to 401K, total claims of all kinds plummet 123,009 ***

Note the down drop at the very end of the chart.

[pstarr]

Shale oil is just one more in a long line of dumb-ass American bubbles. Like I said; no natural drive mechanism. and so the entire enterprise peters out just as the Iraq/Afgani Vet's nightmares kick in. Wouldn't want to be there.

[OilFinder2]

Here's a natural drive mechanism - the urge to shop!



Chains ring up solid September, holidays loom

By Jessica Wohl
Thu Oct 6, 2011 10:48am EDT

(Reuters) - Brisk back-to-school shopping benefited many retailers in September, with sales at stores open at least a year up more than expected at chains from Kohl's Corp (KSS.N) to Nordstrom Inc (JWN.N).

There were signs of both strength and weakness as chains with fresh items enticed shoppers while others were left to question their strategies heading into the critical winter holiday shopping season.

Overall, 23 U.S. retailers posted an average sales gain of 5.1 percent at stores open at least a year, or same-store sales, according to Thomson Reuters. Analysts were anticipating a 4.6 percent rise.

The S&P Retail Index .RLX rose 0.7 percent on Thursday morning, outpacing the broader S&P 500.

September sales were "positive signals," said Janet Hoffman, managing director of Accenture's retail practice.

[...]

[pstarr]

I'm hardly wealthy!

Surprising. Given your skills as a petroleum geologist and financial adviser. Hummmm

[GTAZwerEDC]

Get the Best Blog Comments in the Market...

[Plantagenet]

Good to see Daniel Plainview is back posting.

Plainview is one of the very best posters at this site---smart, knowledgeable, clear.

THANKS.

[OilFinder2]

There there doomers, now that wasn't so bad, was it.

September data show improvement in jobs market

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The nation’s labor market showed some small signs of improvement in September as job growth came in above market expectations, U.S. government data showed Friday.

Employment grew by 103,000 workers in the month, the Labor Department said.

Wall Street had expected a fairly tepid 59,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls for the month, according to a MarketWatch survey.

The gain in September was due in part to the return of about 45,000 workers following a strike against Verizon Communications Inc. VZ -0.03% by unionized workers.

Still, Wall Street greeted the size of the monthly increase, with stock futures moving broadly higher. Read more in Indications.

Indeed, the data did show some strength below the surface. The payrolls count over the prior two months was revised higher by a cumulative 99,000. Payrolls rose by a revised 57,000 in August and by 127,000 in July.

[...]

[OilFinder2]

Not that the doomers here care about this stuff (not doomery enough), but this is an interesting read:

LINK

Friday 09:29 (Dow Jones) In trying to explain the very weak June jobs report, Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics examines the June seasonal factors. Because of summer jobs, the unadjusted number of June payrolls is always higher than the adjusted number. Shepherdson says the SA-NSA spread in private payrolls was -920K in June 2010; this year it was -1084K. The swing in the seasonal factor, -164K, was the biggest ever recorded (the data go back to 1947). He concludes: "Had last June's seasonal been used again, private payrolls would have been +221K."

The way these seasonal adjustment things work, if you get an over (or under)-swing in the seasonal adjustment one month (or week, depending on how often it's measured), there will be a counter-swing the other direction sometime within the next few months (or weeks).

Posted Friday, July 8. Told ya! In fact when I wrote that I was thinking September might be the month when we got a better-than-expected number because that's the month the seasonally unadjusted numbers turn the other way.

[Daniel_Plainview]

Jobless Rate Remains Stuck at 9.1%

For a third straight month, President Obama faces a 9.1% percent unemployment rate. The Labor Department reported this morning that employers added 103,000 jobs in September, but sluggish growth kept the unemployment rate at 9.1%. ... "There were far too few jobs created this month, which shows the need to spend less time making campaign style speeches and more time trying to work together to identify policies that we both can agree will create an environment for job creation," said House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-Va.

103,000 print
-45,000 Verizon strikers returning
-150,000 jobs needed for new entrants
________
-92,000

That's 92,000 jobs needed just to BREAK EVEN. And once you break even, then you can grow. Meanwhile, it looks like Obama needs another census ...

[Daniel_Plainview]

Broader Jobless Rate Rockets from 16.2% to 16.5%, the Highest Level of 2011

The U.S. jobless rate was flat at 9.1% in September, but the government’s broader measure of unemployment rose to 16.5%, the highest rate this year. The comprehensive gauge of labor underutilization, known as the “U-6″ for its data classification by the Labor Department, accounts for people who have stopped looking for work or who can’t find full-time jobs.

The key to the rise in the broader unemployment rate was due to a 444,000 jump in the number of people employed part time but who would prefer full-time work. That number could reflect a rising number of workers who saw their hours cut back by concerned bosses or new part-time hires who would prefer full-time work.

... The broader rate increased despite a rise of 398,000 in the number of people who are employed, as the increase was canceled out by new entrants to labor force. Meanwhile, the number of unemployed people in the U.S. increased by just 25,000. But if the labor force increases continue to outpace the rises in the number employed, the headline 9.1% rate could move higher in the coming months.

[Daniel_Plainview]

People Unemployed more than 6 mos Jumps by 208,000

There’s no particularly good news in these numbers. For every glimmer of good news, like the upward revisions to previous reports totaling 100,000 new jobs or so, there’s an offsetting piece of bad news, like the broad U6 unemployment rate jumping up to 16.5% from 16.2%. And the number of people unemployed for more than six months is now 6.24 million — up by 208,000.

Long-term Unemployed Surges from 42.9% to 44.6%

The long-term unemployed — the least employable of the unemployed, and the most intractable problem in terms of getting America back to work — are now 44.6% of the total, up from 42.9% last month, and 41.8% a year ago.

[OilFinder2]

Awww, poor DP, isn't getting the post-QE2 collapse he was hoping for. I think it's time for a pity party: AWWWWWWWWWWW.

[Daniel_Plainview]

The above is a picture of the deeply depressed US mfgr sector, which this month contracted further by 13,000. Shrinking manufacturing and soaring US debt are going in opposite directions. And the Cornies still celebrate!



When you have an economy that's entirely on govt life support to the tune of several trillion/yr, you'd hope that the new jobs being created would be other than part-time, temp, and service sector jobs. But alas, US debt is now $14.86 Trillion and 99% of GDP

All of this govt money being pumped into the economy, with record stimulus, ZIRP, QE1, QE2, Operation Twist, record bailouts ... and still the best we can do is -92,000 jobs.

All of these newly-employed hamburger flippers make the Cornies vewwy vewwy happy!