What have you gotten right?

[kublikhan]

I want to start this thread as a compliment to Pops "What have you gotten wrong?" thread. So go ahead and toot your own horn and tell us what you got right.

I'll start by saying I bailed on my financial stocks before they blew up. And invested in oil, natural gas, and gold instead. Those bets have paid off.

I predicted oil prices would sharply fall from their $150 high. Then sharply rise from their $32 low. Got those bets right.

I predicted a bright future for wind. That prediction seems right on track.

We decided to stay in a small house and live well below our means. Now that we are down to 1 income, that decision saved us lots of pain.

[Pops]

Right on Kub.

The undulating plateau model of the peak economy has always been my mantra and though we look to be going into the second downturn now at least so far there's no Overnight Armageddon on the widespread societal collapse scale many worry about. This one I really don't want to be wrong!
There were a couple of months there in '08 I was wondering if Simmons and the TOD folks might not be right and the price would shoot the moon and put a stake in the economy for good, but really, who the heck could continue to pay? Demand is flexible over time if not over night and we have lots of fat left to consume yet.

Everyone is tired of hearing me brag on cashing out my RE profits and moving out of CA before the crash but as a freelancer I'd have probably lost most of my net worth had I stuck it out - so I'll pat myself for turning the froth into a paid-off farm one more time.

And I will also brag on relocating to a pretty good little place. There are drawbacks to SW MO to be sure but even with the schizoid climate I'm pretty happy and much less paranoid of my neighbors, Backwards-Ozarkers could have a leg up on Clueless-Californians.

[americandream]

I predicted from the outset (despite Savinar and Simmons) that the global economy would not collapse (for a few more decades), would become more leaner (end of social democracy/social democratic initiatives), speculative (markets and capital) and brutal (for labour) and I have been trading on that premise.

I was not convinced that oil had quite reached the point where we could say definitively, yes, it's over. The recent wars of annexation have caused me to reconsider that premise somewhat but only to the extent that it suggests that there is a concern about reserves or their transparency, higher up. However, the picture regarding reserves is still unclear for me and I see no signs in the slowing of the JIT economy to suggest that the reserves annexations are a panic move, rather insurance for when the inevitable arrives.

Thus far, I am doing fine trading wise, the state is under attack in the US and the EU (the supra-state) and of course, unemployment dogs opportunities in these economies.

I am preparing to further be able to stand alone in the new global economy which, I believe, will devolve into pure individualism. Hence I am looking to extend the asset base I trade.

[Crusty]

I'm happy with my decision for move out of a Capital City to a small rural village 10 yrs ago when I saw the 'writing on the wall' Glad I'm on a small acreage working on my vege's and fruit trees. Glad to working with like minded people building a resilient community: community garden, bike paths, barter etc.

Glad I chose to lower my standard of living to increase my quality of Life!!

[Shaved Monkey]

Moving here
Living in a great place, in paradise, surrounded by a growing food forest.
Living below my means..reducing my income by 90% and having a much better life.
Connecting with my community.
I have been planning for self sufficiency in order to speed up retirement, since my late teens.
I didn't know about peak oil until a few years ago, but everything I had been doing for the last 20 years,becoming debt free,trimming running cost,planting trees,growing food,down sizing,accumulating skills was all heading in the right direction to be able to survive it.

[Loki]

I am preparing to further be able to stand alone in the new global economy which, I believe, will devolve into pure individualism. Hence I am looking to extend the asset base I trade.

So you'll be "standing alone" by continuing to be a lazy parasite siphoning off the wealth produced by men doing real work? Your logical contortions are impressive, almost as impressive as an avowed Marxist bragging about his Wall Street casino winnings.

As for me, we'll see what I've gotten right, the game ain't over yet. I doubt I'll regret learning how to farm, regardless of what happens. I've learned to grow my own food and to live a life of rural poverty, and had a lot of fun in the process.

No gambling winnings to brag of, sorry.

[americandream]

I am preparing to further be able to stand alone in the new global economy which, I believe, will devolve into pure individualism. Hence I am looking to extend the asset base I trade.

So you'll be "standing alone" by continuing to be a lazy parasite siphoning off the wealth produced by men doing real work? Your logical contortions are impressive, almost as impressive as an avowed Marxist bragging about his Wall Street casino winnings.

As for me, we'll see what I've gotten right, the game ain't over yet. I doubt I'll regret learning how to farm, regardless of what happens. I've learned to grow my own food and to live a life of rural poverty, and had a lot of fun in the process.

No gambling winnings to brag of, sorry.

Been there done that. Spent 9 years living the life of a crofter on a remote Scottish island of 150. There were no shops, services and such like. You survived by being resilient and hardy. Learnt a few lessons and also decided to use my ability and skills beyond the limits of my quite idyllic life.

This trading is not all about me living on caviare. There are other ways to contribute to society apart from swearing an oath of simplicity. Hooeverrrr, to each his own road and I wish you well.

[seahorse3]

Way back when, I predicted the housing crisis in 2005, which happened in 2005. Poster "Bill" nominated me for poster of the year that year because of that call. I then suggested that this era would be the end of private home ownership in the US, just as the Great Depression marked the end of the small farmer. I still believe that is the case. We see now that Fannie and Freddie are the biggest homeowners in the US, that conglomerate hedge funds are buying up at the delinquent notes and homes and renting them, and that with credit drying up, many individuals will probably never be able to buy a home again.

I also suggested people, the common man, should buy a silver coin. Why? Because most people could and can still afford to buy a silver coin each month, and they don't have to pay a commission etc to someone to handle their money for them. That turned out to be good advice too, as silver has far outperformed the stock market since I've been posting in 2004.

Last, I believed that people should get fit and simplify for a myriad of reasons. Here is what I wrote back in 2004 on that issue. It still applies today:

http://geocrisis.com/how_to_plan_for_peak_oil.htm

[davep]

Selling up near London in 2005 was probably my brightest move. That enabled me to buy the doomstead cash.

[PrestonSturges]

While my retirement is not secure, I have managed to protect my nest egg through the financial panics by pulling out of the stock market before the crashes of 2008 and 2011. My mistake was suggesting my MBA supervisor do the same, then watching him get hosed financially and resent me for it.

I did buy a house in 2002, but it was after very large telecom layoffs in the town, so prices were not inflated. Although there was an 80/20 loan involved, I doubled down on the 20% mortgage payments and that's nearly paid off. I have put in about $1000 just in dirt to fill low spots, trashed the original lawn and rototilled, replanted with varieties that suit our climate, never use the sprinklers and have the greenest yard on the block.

Also I went very frugal starting in 2005 in response to the deficits Bush locked in through 2010. And I got The Fear in 2006, which led to as much permaculture as our tiny property could handle. I got very good at cutting trees, rope and ladder work, and using hand tools. This has gotten to the stage where we are giving away small amounts of seasonal fruit from our >12 ( I've lost count) fruit trees. We got our first pawpaws this week.These days we focus on propagating what will grow easiest in our area and try to keep giving that stuff away. I also set up the rainwater collection, and catch about 600 gallons in 6 barrels and an "IBC tote," which we draw on constantly. We bought good oil lamps and got gas logs that don't require electricity. In 2007 we stocked up on milsurp, but it never got out of hand and we have 13 guns, none of them particularly valuable. While I have 5 gallon cans for gas and kerosene, I've never used them. At that point I decided to pick up some additional schooling, which just wrapped up, and that was probably a good move in the long run. Rescued a small dog to be our burglar alarm.

The next step is to create my own business (did I mention my supervisor resented me?) in which I will make and sell a consumer product to individuals, based on the idea that there will always be some percent of the population that will be employed and buying stuff individually even if their employers are not investing in anything.

None of this has been gradual. We approach each project with intensity, get it working well enough to be useful, and move on.

[basil_hayden]

Married a real good shot! I mean she's dead on with about any iron thrown at her!

[DomusAlbion]

Moving to the country and starting our farm earlier (2005) than initially planned. I'd like to take credit for that but the impetus to move early came from my wife (Lumpy to you guys). It has taken these 6 long years build up this place but we are much closer to our goals of self-sufficiency than if we had waited until my target year of 2008.

I estimated that we would not see adverse effects from PO until around 2015 but as we have all witnessed those effects came earlier and are now compounding. We're still a few years away from our little farm being completely established to support us but we're much closer to the end of that goal than the beginning.