Learn anything from disasters so far?

[Pops]

Not even 3/4ths through with '11 and we've already experienced 8 disasters with damage over a billion-dollars.



Staniford said last year on his blog that resilience is higher with modern civilizations because we have greater economic surpluses:

... modern civilization operates at far higher levels of economic surplus than past civilizations, and this means that it is in a position to devote far higher levels of economic resources on solving certain kinds of problems.

Unless we decide not to, as it looks like was happening as help for Joplin was tossed into political bartering in June...

But a congressman from Alabama linked the two when he introduced legislation creating a disaster aid package that would be financed by a $1.5 billion cut from a loan program to encourage the production of fuel-efficient vehicles. In turn, $1 billion would go to disaster relief.

And now after Irene:

“For any projects that have not come in for approval, we’re not going to be able to fund those at this point. We’re going to postpone those,” FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate said at a White House briefing Monday, referring to some efforts in Joplin.

It seems to me financialization has converted just about every asset into debt - that's the point of the FIRE economy right? So with everything hedged and leveraged to the hilt do we even have any surplus left or is it all mortgaged - and underwater - sorta-speak?


H/T SAR

That's the ShadowStats version of real GDP. I'd bet if you overlaid a plot of private and public debt on that chart you'd see a correlation - not to mention all the artificial gambling lines sold as investments.

Most of us have insurance - I carried car insurance through AIG till they went broke underwriting real estate tranches and who knows what. Where are all the assets we assume the insurance cos have just laying around waiting for our claim?


My question is not about politics or even so much about economics, we'll never agree about those, my question is about how you view your personal preparations for disasters in light of current political/economic climate?
Do you rely on the Ministries of Love & Plenty, or your insurance company... what do you do to protect yourself?
What do you see happening as available oil declines; do we become more willing to help each other or less?


http://motherjones.com/mojo/2011/06/our ... r-disaster
http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2010/04/w ... ience.html
http://ckm3.blogspot.com/
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld ... 7342.story

[Lore]

What I've learned, or should I say has been reinforced, is just how fragile our society has become. My advice is for the younger generation, that is to get their noses out of electronic social media and rediscover what real small informal community living and personal responsibility is all about. That will be the future of long term security. When the lights go out for good, your BFF won't be of much help 2,000 miles away in Slackjaw, NC.

[Timo]

Pops, an important element in your question about what we each do to prepare for disaster, natural, economic, or otherwise, all depends on the severity of the disaster that you're expecting. I do expect an economic disaster, but that disaster won't be the end of the world, IMO. To someone else, however, such a disaster might be expected to be the end of the world. I guess the level of preparation is relative to what's considered to be a disaster. In this sense, to each his own. The timing of when to expect the onset of a disaster is important, too. I know people are filling bunkers full of canned food as i write this, but in my expectations, that food will just sit there, unused for its intended purpose for a lifetime. I could be wrong. I could be right. It's been a while since i looked into my chrystal ball. I do have a deck of tarot cards right next to me, though. Tarot is a science, right?

[Pops]

I'm thinking specifically about natural disasters and whether individuals and society as a whole is capable, even today, to efficiently recover or have we lost the wherewithal and just don't realize it as yet.

[AgentR11]

My take is that disasters have magnitudes of effect. Each step on the magnitude chart is more than sufficient to obliterate any middle class or upper middle class family without the intervention of some form of hedge. For the lesser magnitude ones, insurance products are the go to; health, car accidents, house fire; all are able to sink a family's financial situation; so we carry health, auto, and homeowners insurance. Disaster will still be bad, broken legs still hurt, memories are lost, lost wages are lost wages; but in the end, the effect of the insurance policy undoes a large portion of the damage.

Higher orders of disaster, say terminal cancer, multiple natural disasters, serious economic depression (incoming), can all overwhelm what insurance you have; so you have a situation where a disconnect arises, what do you have to hang on to, that you can keep in the face of these challenges; could be land, could be dispersed, hidden financial assets, etc.

And you have the final steps, where there is no grid, no gas, no power, no government aid, no services, half the food stamp generation becomes brain eating zombies, etc. Gold, silver, land, artillery.

I don't fear the first set, and I don't fear the last set. Its that middle ground that really challenges any planning I might throw at it. I can only hope I have the balance of assets, and the planned responses correct for them, because once they come into play, there's no "do over" button. You either succeed, and your family stays together; or fail and die (or end up destitute in a concentration camp setting).

Basic natural disasters, singular hurricane, an earthquake, batch of tornadoes... I'd include in the first orders of magnitude. I don't think they challenge us yet, even if government response varies according to the expressed will of the people through their representatives in Congress.

[Lore]

I'm thinking specifically about natural disasters and whether individuals and society as a whole is capable, even today, to efficiently recover or have we lost the wherewithal and just don't realize it as yet.

We've lost it, can't find it and it's beyond our comprehension to imagine any other existence then that which we live.

[Pops]

What I've learned, or should I say has been reinforced, is just how fragile our society has become.

I think that is what my inner Luddite tells me too.

The problem isn't that salads come from 1,500 miles way, it's that generators and drywal and basic telecom equipment comes from 15,000 miles away.

I don't fear the first set, and I don't fear the last set. Its that middle ground that really challenges any planning I might throw at it.

Yes, I concur, it's the getting there that is the hard part.

Keeping one foot in the 21st century and one in the 19th is really hard to balance.

[ritter]

I was listening to an interview with a woman who rode out Katrina in New Orleans. She's still there, home repaired, life on-going. She noted that there are still a lot of empty lots on her street where there used to be houses.

Whether NO should be rebuilt or not is another argument. The point is, six years later, it is apparently not rebuilt. I don't put much faith in the government or insurance to set things back to pre disaster conditions.

[americandream]

Nuttin changes until it changes.

[Timo]

I was listening to an interview with a woman who rode out Katrina in New Orleans. She's still there, home repaired, life on-going. She noted that there are still a lot of empty lots on her street where there used to be houses.

Whether NO should be rebuilt or not is another argument. The point is, six years later, it is apparently not rebuilt. I don't put much faith in the government or insurance to set things back to pre disaster conditions.

Everything changes. In my job, i often tell people that expecting things to stay the same is like telling your 5 year old daughter she can't grow up because you love her just the way she is, at that moment in time. That's a ridiculous scenario, right? Children do grow up. (Maturing is another topic, altogether.) Point made.

[Newfie]

The point is well taken that we have had such a redistribution of wealth that j6p has few resources left.

Elizabeth Warren makes the point far better than I.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akVL7QY0S8A

But you see she is talking about TWO types of wealth; money and TIME. We are working more and more which leaves us less and less time to do things and learn things that could be useful. But the point is that not only are we individually broke financially but we have exhausted our available TIME. We are working ourselves to death.

Not that we would if we could, most are too tuned into the damn 'social media' to learn anything useful. Which brings me to another point. I think if I were in a survival situation I would want to be with some small dairymen or a fishing boat captain. Those guys are both someone who must be very resourceful all of the time. Now they can fix stuff, because they must to survive.

j6p, on the other hand, can't fix shit. As we move further away from the farm and the manufacturing floor we are loosing our touch with the natural world. Not just the sense of being outside but how things work, how to fix something metal, how to fix a chair. So not are we financially and temporally bankrupt, we are also bankrupt in useful/meaningful skills. People don't know the trades.

Yeah, we're screwed.

[americandream]

They were freemen, then they were serfs, now they are workers, but they additionally consume voraciously. Which gives rise to the quandry. How to minimise their pay and maximise their consuming.

[ritter]

Everything changes. In my job, i often tell people that expecting things to stay the same is like telling your 5 year old daughter she can't grow up because you love her just the way she is, at that moment in time. That's a ridiculous scenario, right? Children do grow up. (Maturing is another topic, altogether.) Point made.

Of course things change. The question is, why bother with insurance if it isn't going to put it right? The point of the thread is not that things remain static but that government/insurance lack the financial wherewithal to correct to predisaster conditions after a disaster.

This isn't just related to disaster. Take a look at public infrastructure. It's in terrible shape--old, outdated, deferred maintenance, etc. We groan under our own weight.

[Fishman]

Pops, I'm in eastern NC. Your thread starts with Learn anything from disasters so far, so economy, weather, disasters, whatever, they interrelate. I even considered a job at Hatteras, and was supposed to be camping at Ocracoke but knew I would be evacuated. You prep with the resources you have, that community stuff, is very true. And for all the wrath here about people of faith, they respond quicker, work harder, and they are the very definition of a small community. So when that disaster hits your community, or peak oil does whatever, it won't be your atheist neighbor that comes over to help. It will far more likely be your neighbor who trodded off to church or synagogue every weekend, after they take care of their own. Hope you can wait.
Government/insurance can only blunt the pain

[Newfie]

.....it won't be your atheist neighbor that comes over to help. It will far more likely be your neighbor who trodded off to church or synagogue every weekend, after they take care of their own. ...........

Fish...........be careful of that OK. You may not know it but Atheist have their own churches.

While there are many of one type or another you could check on the AEU for one. They have regular Sunday come to meeting, and socials, and all the same kinds of ceremonies your more familiar religions do. They just believe that we do it because it is good for us and our community and leave the God stuff out.

http://www.aeu.org/

Know who decides who is a religion and who is not? First the IRS, then the state Supreme Court.

So much for separation huh?

[Fishman]

Newfie, bless you, or good thoughts, or whatever, for all those atheists and their attendance on whatever day for whatever you want to call it. I'm glad you have the right to practice/not practice your religion/nonreligion. You would not have that right in most muslim countries. I wish you the best when disasters come your way. My observation is those people of faith respond quicker than non organized people of no faith.

[americandream]

Assistance from the religious always comes at a price. Your mind.

[Fishman]

"Assistance from the religious always comes at a price. Your mind" Perhaps, but lack of assistance after a disaster might mean your life, at least more poverty as the government declines. Best of luck for getting any assistance from anyone else, and that's what I've learned from lots of disasters.

[americandream]

"Assistance from the religious always comes at a price. Your mind" Perhaps, but lack of assistance after a disaster might mean your life, at least more poverty as the government declines. Best of luck for getting any assistance from anyone else, and that's what I've learned from lots of disasters.

Definitely. But then again, there are no freebies in capitalism. Life or your mind.

[Lore]

In finality, I'd rather lose my life then my mind.