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U.S. to Slash Marcellus Shale Gas Estimate 80%

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U.S. to Slash Marcellus Shale Gas Estimate 80%

Unread postby Pops » Thu 25 Aug 2011, 14:57:28

Has this been posted and I missed it?

The U.S. will slash its estimate of undiscovered Marcellus Shale natural gas by as much as 80 percent after a updated assessment by government geologists.
The formation, which stretches from New York to Tennessee, contains about 84 trillion cubic feet of gas, the U.S. Geological Survey said today in its first update in nine years. That supersedes an Energy Department projection of 410 trillion cubic feet, said Philip Budzik, an operations research analyst with the Energy Information Administration.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-2 ... e-80-.html
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Re: U.S. to Slash Marcellus Shale Gas Estimate 80%

Unread postby dinopello » Thu 25 Aug 2011, 15:49:49

From the article:

“One fifth of a big number is still a big number,” Kevin Book, managing director at ClearView Energy Partners LLC, a Washington-based policy analysis firm


Yeah, a notional 100 year supply would become a 20 year supply, what's the biggie ?
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Re: U.S. to Slash Marcellus Shale Gas Estimate 80%

Unread postby MD » Thu 25 Aug 2011, 16:11:02

And the easiest half will be the first half... a small fact so often ignored.
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
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Re: U.S. to Slash Marcellus Shale Gas Estimate 80%

Unread postby peeker01 » Thu 25 Aug 2011, 16:45:51

Speaking of 100 year forecasts.........remember the 10 years of oil we had left in 1973?
Last edited by peeker01 on Thu 25 Aug 2011, 19:36:32, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. to Slash Marcellus Shale Gas Estimate 80%

Unread postby eastbay » Thu 25 Aug 2011, 18:54:32

dinopello wrote:From the article:
“One fifth of a big number is still a big number,” Kevin Book, managing director at ClearView Energy Partners LLC, a Washington-based policy analysis firm
Yeah, a notional 100 year supply would become a 20 year supply, what's the biggie ?

20 years at the current rate of consumption ... and like MD said, the first half is the easiest to produce and burn. I'm expecting NG prices to begin to rise fairly soon.
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Re: U.S. to Slash Marcellus Shale Gas Estimate 80%

Unread postby Ferretlover » Thu 25 Aug 2011, 19:28:32

Pops wrote:Has this been posted and I missed it?

Nope; nice find, Pops. :)
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Re: U.S. to Slash Marcellus Shale Gas Estimate 80%

Unread postby kiwichick » Thu 25 Aug 2011, 19:29:44

80% REDUCTION!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

OUCH!!!!!!!


so much for gas saving the world
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Re: U.S. to Slash Marcellus Shale Gas Estimate 80%

Unread postby peeker01 » Thu 25 Aug 2011, 20:02:32

Two thousand feet below the Marcellus is the Utica Shale, and it might eclipse the Marcellus.
Don't bet against American drilling technology.

http://geology.com/articles/utica-shale/
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Re: U.S. to Slash Marcellus Shale Gas Estimate 80%

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Thu 25 Aug 2011, 20:29:22

Earlier this year, Alaska's untapped oil reserve estimates were slashed by 90%. Now, Marcellus' estimated shale gas reserves are slashed by 80%.

What happened to our beloved "abundance" and cornucopian Horn-of-plenty?

It's a good thing that we've got plenty more money to print so that we can afford to import more oil and gas.

This will not end well.
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Re: U.S. to Slash Marcellus Shale Gas Estimate 80%

Unread postby peeker01 » Thu 25 Aug 2011, 20:53:13

Fact is, who cares what this administration says about anything? Exxon has a huge find in
the gulf of mexico. Rather than downgrade the quantity of the discovery, they are just
going to steal it from them. Makes sense to me.

http://www.chron.com/business/steffy/ar ... 138230.php
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Re: U.S. to Slash Marcellus Shale Gas Estimate 80%

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Thu 25 Aug 2011, 22:44:18

peeker01 wrote:Speaking of 100 year forecasts.........remember the 10 years of oil we had left in 1973?
No.

Source, please.
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Re: U.S. to Slash Marcellus Shale Gas Estimate 80%

Unread postby kiwichick » Thu 25 Aug 2011, 23:14:04

gom find could be the largest since thunder horse

could be

isn't thunder horse already in decline
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Re: U.S. to Slash Marcellus Shale Gas Estimate 80%

Unread postby peeker01 » Thu 25 Aug 2011, 23:20:58

Keith_McClary wrote:
peeker01 wrote:Speaking of 100 year forecasts.........remember the 10 years of oil we had left in 1973?
No.

Source, please.


It happened. Find your own source.
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Re: U.S. to Slash Marcellus Shale Gas Estimate 80%

Unread postby MD » Fri 26 Aug 2011, 00:12:23

peeker01 wrote:
Keith_McClary wrote:
peeker01 wrote:Speaking of 100 year forecasts.........remember the 10 years of oil we had left in 1973?
No.

Source, please.


It happened. Find your own source.


From the baseless assertions file: No it didn't.

(Do try to stop wasting time with schoolyard BS)
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
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Re: U.S. to Slash Marcellus Shale Gas Estimate 80%

Unread postby copious.abundance » Wed 18 Jun 2014, 00:48:20

Daniel_Plainview wrote:Earlier this year, Alaska's untapped oil reserve estimates were slashed by 90%. Now, Marcellus' estimated shale gas reserves are slashed by 80%.

What happened to our beloved "abundance" and cornucopian Horn-of-plenty?

It's a good thing that we've got plenty more money to print so that we can afford to import more oil and gas.

This will not end well.

Time for an update. :) Sounds like this is a super-duper special gas shale! :shock: Contrary to previous reports of its imminent demise.

Marcellus continues to defy expectations, driving US gas production ever higher
Shale has been the primary driver of US gas supply growth since 2007, and the Marcellus shale has been the largest single contributor to rising production.

Marcellus production topped 14.5 bcfd in March and is expected to account for nearly one fourth of all US gas output by 2015, according to a report by Morningstar Inc.

The Marcellus's eminent position stems, in part, from the ability of wells in the formation to come online at high initial production (IP) rates and to sustain those rates for longer than wells in other shale formations.

Morningstar found the median Marcellus shale well continues to flow at 100% of its initial production rate for its first 6 months.
"Once you drill a well, it keeps flowing at a high rate for an extended period. That is very distinct from pretty much any other shale play that we've seen so far in the US," Mark Hanson, Morningstar equity analyst and coauthor of the report, told UOGR. By comparison, Hanson said, a well in the Haynesville shale in Louisiana may see production decline 50% during its first 6 months online.

[...]
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: U.S. to Slash Marcellus Shale Gas Estimate 80%

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 18 Jun 2014, 09:28:19

Not that I'm as enthusiastic as my cousin copious but he makes the critical point: how much reserves anyone estimates isn't very relevant IMHO. The bottom line: how much is being produced today. Future production estimates, higher or lower, don't feed the kitty. The kitty is hungry today and that's what really matters. LOL.
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Re: U.S. to Slash Marcellus Shale Gas Estimate 80%

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 01 Sep 2014, 18:03:45

America's Most Incredible Natural Gas Play Has Only Just Begun To Boom
Since 2009, natural gas production out of the Pennsylvania-centered Marcellus shale play has soared 650%. Today, daily new-well gas output from the region totals 7.5 million cubic feet — making it the largest or second-largest unconventional gas play in the world, depending on who's counting.

A new report argues the Marcellus has only just begun to boom, though.

Wood MacKenzie, an energy consultancy, forecasts that there remains up to $90 billion-worth of recoverable gas reserves in the play. The agency raised its estimate of 2020 output to 20 billion cubic feet equivalent per day from 14 billion bcfed, and that the Marcellus will soon account for nearly 25% of total U.S. shale gas supply.

[...]
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: U.S. to Slash Marcellus Shale Gas Estimate 80%

Unread postby KingM » Mon 01 Sep 2014, 19:08:41

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Re: U.S. to Slash Marcellus Shale Gas Estimate 80%

Unread postby jedrider » Mon 01 Sep 2014, 19:58:28

What better way to attract investment than to hype the amount of the potential deposits. If NOT for this exaggerations, we would [probably] already be in decline. No?
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Re: U.S. to Slash Marcellus Shale Gas Estimate 80%

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 01 Sep 2014, 21:16:39

Jed - The vast majority of the capex spent in the Marcellus (and all the other shale plays) is being spent by public companies and not coming from private investors. Of course the pubcos are motivated to keep their stock prices up by hyping any play they're working.

And just so folks aren't confused: the amount of NG that will be recovered from the Marcellus (at a certain price) hasn't changed. What has changed are the various predictions. And more to the point: those predictions, as well as the actual amount, aren't terribly relevant IMHO. What is relevant is the FACT that the M is currently producing about 5.5 TCF/year. And doing so at a relatively low price which is very relevant to the consumers. And how profitable/unprofitable are the companies drilling the M? I don't know but again that's not relevant to 98.6% of Americans.

Will production levels hold? Increase? Decrease? I don't know...nor does anyone else. Of course that doesn't mean folks won't make such predictions. But how important is knowing that? Is anyone here or in the country going to change their activities based on how much NG is coming our of the M in 3 years? How about 8 years? How about 20 years? What changes the habits of folks (and economies) is the price of fossil fuels.There seems to be an obsession with predicting such numbers that I honestly don't understand. What virtually everyone in the country, including the oil patch, cares about is the price of oil and NG in the future. And that depends on much more the production rates. And depends very little on URR from any trend.

Just another late night rabbling while I'm waiting to catch another log run. LOL.
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